Ask The Experts
General Category => Ask the Experts => Topic started by: TGJB on September 06, 2004, 04:28:29 PM
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Take a look at The Cradle Stakes (13th RD) when the RBR has it tomorrow. And yes, I pointed out it was a good betting race before the fact. You ain\'t gonna have a tough time figuring out why.
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I\'ll bite. I looked. The top two finishers had clearly shown more speed than the favorite. Of course, there were no patterns to read. You said that you pointed out that it was a good betting race before the fact. Was that in a post that I missed or one of the products? What would you have said about this race if you had done an analysis before hand? What would have made it a good betting race with so little pattern information (other than the obvious two fast figures)?
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I look at the trainer patterns in races like this. Not much to go on.
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There was an even money favorite that was more than 7 points slower than 2 other horses going in. That\'s what made it a good betting race. However you played it-- win bet on the most likely winner, box of the two fast horses (I did both) you cashed. Yes, the favorite figured to improve (and since he lost a photo for second, did), but you started out with a tremendous edge, patterns or no patterns.
I posted here that it was one of three races I loved-- the other two being ROTW and DMR Derby. It was the only one I hit, but that\'s not the point-- you give me Scipion, Tapit and Blackdoun to bet against at those prices 3 times a day and I\'ll be a happy guy.
This goes to a point Chris and others made over the weekend, about worrying about whether a horse is \"too long\"-- the first thing I look for (and you will see it more often than not in ROTW), is a bad favorite. Those horses will be on an extremely high percentage of the exotic tickets-- if I can throw them out, I know I have a huge edge in the race, just for starters.
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Thanks. I concur with the \"bad favorite\" approach. I handicap every race from that perspective. I start with the horses that are most likely to be the favorites and then I look for something with odds that can beat the favorites. If one or two jump out, it\'s a good betting race. BTW, I find this occurs frequently in Maiden races. I find some of my best bets in those races. In the Cradle, it was obvious that there were two horses that were faster than the favorite by a wide margin. So I think it was an \"easy\" race to bet. However, I\'m not sure that I would agree that it was a \"good\" betting race. Because there were two fast horses and the odds were so low on both of them.
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The overhyped well bred first time starter, love playing against. Anyone remember shark twice at saratoga this meet!
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I have been waiting to bet against Scipion ever since his \"good-looking/slow-going\" maiden win.
Visually, that race was all anyone talked about, but once you looked at the come home times - it was a sheets and pace player\'s bonanza...as you proved with the 2 fastest horses!
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>Tapit <
That was a horrible favorite. He was slower than the competition, coming off a layoff, and running from a far outside post in a 2 turn race.
I can see why people might think he could improve off his figures earned late in his 2yo season and in the Grade 1 Wood, but he had to improve a lot just to catch up (no guarantee) and still overcome the other disadvantages.
I didn\'t play the race, but if I did, that was an easy underlay to throw out. I would not have cashed though. Not sure who I would have bet.