Ask The Experts
General Category => Ask the Experts => Topic started by: P-Dub on May 02, 2020, 04:37:13 PM
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Race 10:
#2 Ginobli makes his first start around 2 turns. Ran a really fast number 2 back followed by a dud over this track. Can’t let the horse with best number beat me in leg 1. #4 Villainous has competitive numbers at a price. #7 Candy Tycoon faces softer and another with competitive numbers. #10 Prodigious Bay jumped forward first route. #11 Rushie with 2 solid routes this year. Contentious race.
2-4-7-10-11
Race 11: #1 Charlatan could be singled, but I singled Venetian Harbor and it cost me the Pick 4. Will also use #4 Gouverneur Morris, who jumped forward off the paired 2 YO top. If Charlatan doesn’t break well, who knows.
1-4
Race 12:
#2 Trophy Chaser should sit a good trip from an inside draw, paired tops this year which are very competitive. #4 Mr Freeze reacts off big efforts, but can still win off a bounce sitting right off the pace. #6 Warrior’s Charge has speed, several wins over the track, solid connections, and ran a top last out. #9 Tacitus has solid numbers and a must use. #12 By My Standards, toss the Ky Derby in the slop and he’s won his last 4. Solid pattern, a little slower than the other contenders but I think he can move forward which puts him right in this.
2-4-6-9-12
Race 13:
#3 Storm The Court paired his top, fits on numbers. #4 King Guillermo ran a big race at TB on the main after a couple on turf. Fastest number can’t toss. #5 Nadal another in the number range behind KG, as well as #11 Well’s Bayou. #10 Farmington Road is a bit slower but I love his pattern and a forward move puts him squarely in this. The track is playing towards speed, he\'ll need a pace meltdown which is possible.
3-4-5-10-11
Race 14:
#5 Carlos Sixes has solid numbers, gets the distance, and I don’t like much else here. Single
.50 P5: 2,4,7,10,11/1,4/2,4,6,9,12/3,4,5,10,11/5 = $125
Economy Ticket .50 P5
4,7,11/1/2,4,6,9,12/4,5,10/5 = $22.50
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I tossed the 12, By My Standards but had the 5 and 9 in the last race. Baffert kills everything with those highly bet runners. Nadal looked average in that field and wins like a champ.
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I don\'t understand how anyone could have seen Nadal\'s previous race and then say he looked \"average\" in today\'s field.
He \"wins like a champ\" today because he won like a champ in that previous race.
(Note: I\'m not saying you had to prefer him today at 4-5 to KG\'s 9-2.)
(Though . . . geezus ... considering Baffert\'s record at Oaklawn . . .)
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Nadal looks much more the Derby horse than Charlatan..
Very cool how Oaklawn ended the meet with that song can never remember the name of it..
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How?
All of these horses had comparable numbers:
King Guillermo, Storm the Court, Farmington Road, Well Bayou, Taishan, and Silver Prospector.
There is no way that horse should have been less than even money. IMHO