Ask The Experts
General Category => Ask the Experts => Topic started by: Michael D. on February 05, 2005, 07:53:06 AM
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R1: the big three jocks have the favs, and they all make sense. castellano (riding as well as the big three) gets an ap indy firster with a nice female family. a few nice works, lasix....might take a stab at good odds.
R2: andromeda\'s hero ran a nice # last, nice timing, nice post, bravo. key at ml of 9-2. i bet miracle man first out eight months ago, and have been waiting.... he looks real slow, but after waiting eight months, i have to toss him in the exotics at long odds. $.475 mio pletcher/jr horse as a saver.
R3: a few speed types in here. alfonsina should be able to sit of the pace and save ground from post 1. nice # back in nov, had a bit of trouble last. key at ml of 4-1. $.425 mio pletcher/jr horse real fast, the obvious saver.
R4: jim\'s smokin pinot has to improve a bit here, but kiaran should have him cranked, and gets the rider switch to jr. $1.15 mio noble causeway is bred to run for miles on the dam side. nice #\'s last two. a use, but odds will be low.
R5: vicarage comes back on 15 days rest, a major worry. last # was nice though. should be able to sit off a fast pace, and is bred to run for miles on dam side (i think sire vicar tore up these fla preps a few years ago). use at ml of 5-1. i have to toss in PA at low odds. he is a one turn horse, and could run back to his top.
R7: no bet here, but i think bandini, reverberate, and indy storm will all stretch out well. fun race to watch.
R8: don\'t think i will bet him at low odds, but forest danger is about as quick as they come. huge fig third out, then back up stretching out. very fast works. the eight month break is a mystery, but if he explodes at 112 lbs, i won\'t be surprised.
R9: very tough. gun to my head, i go with eddi at 5-1 or higher. nice race last, real fast works. needs to jump a point or two (or four if one of the favs explode), but the fast ones will short.
R10: high fly - last was brilliant. i can see a bounce here first try around two turns. bred to run all day though. bounce or not, i like this horse a lot down the road. odds will be too low, have to just watch it.
great card. good luck everybody!!
Post Edited (02-05-05 07:58)
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like your thinking here...one thing I noticed is the giant Causeway horse - in the 4th fi I remember correctly - Noble Causeway, was run down by a horse running in the 10th race, Dearest Mon (JB up)and he will be a box for me with high fly...if the Causeway colt shows something to gauge improvement...so to speak. this is one great card they have today.
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Well done, old chap. It appears you made it okay & have figured out how to bet the card, which is a good thing considering the prices over there. $10.50 for a pack of smokes seems a little high even by ny stds.
You got most or all of the logical ones covered, so I\'ll limit my comments to the shots that have some kind of chance, since while I agree with your assessment that it is a great card, it\'s not going to be a profitable card for moi if Pletcher does as well as you\'re anticipating.
R1: Norfield might be closer to the pace today than most will anticipate, & am willing to take a chance he improves a little on his 1st fast track at 15-1.(re your comment, remind me to ask you a question about whether JB should still be considered one of the big 3 when you get back.)
R2: Mott\'s horse appears to be approaching stick out status, given the way he finished 1L in his last, but I think you\'re on to something with Miracle Man. Starting in the one hole on the turn at CD & circling the field to win at 5f in a debut effort leads me to believe that this horse might be a lot better than any numbers would indicate.
R4: As long as the odds are there, I\'ve always been a fan of the throw out last play. Alexandersrun & Rationalexuberance fit the bill here.
R5: At 6-1, Vicarage makes sense to me as well, but Devil At Sea\'s ability to contest very fast fractions & still finish okay in his last is interesting, as I\'m guessing he might get loose. I don\'t factor jocks in as a positive as much as you do, but there are certain ones I try to avoid, like Santos, which makes this a tough play for me unless the odds drift up some from his 6-1ML.
R7: Monopoly Pricing, General Jumbo, & to a somewhat lesser degree War Tempo, all look pretty live to me, so this is not one I\'ll be passing. And if he happens to draw in, LETTERMAN\'S HUMOR OWES DERBY1592 MONEY!!!
R8: At the right price, I\'m an even bigger fan of the throw out the last two school of thinking. These are very good horses, but I\'m not sure they would stack up all that well against Pico Central. At 20-1 or higher, I\'m willing to gamble that Voodoo might fire today & get a piece of this one.
R11: The only one you skipped, & it might be the best gambling race on the card. Romolo\'s a logical place to land, but Rythmic Motion alone, along with a little Move Those Chains, will likely determine what kind of day I have.
Good Luck to you as well. Enjoy your trip & have a safe journey home.
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mall,
i haven\'t figured out much at GP yet this year........ good luck. i will be back later to whine and make excuses.
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The 10th looks interesting to me.
If Kansas City Boy can run a number like he did two back, he may be competitive at 4 or 5 to 1. He is getting weight from High Fly and has the better post. If High Fly backs up even a little, i think KC Boy has a shot.
John B
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race 2 here - miracle man. the horse got scratched that day. he ran ten days later - AND WON AT 19-1!! i just noticed (he runs fri at kee).
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By the way, Michael, NoCar et al, I booked a flight, will be at Keenland Fri through Sun of Bluegrass weekend. Details to follow so that we can all meet up.
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jerry,
i have a flight back sunday. i might not be able to leave that place though (see how much money i have left).
tony,
i sent you an email. i will send another over will my cell #.
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Michael D,
Good will look for it.
NC Tony
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I\'m around now, but it looks like the day I should have been around was 2/16. Given that the BG is shaping up as one of the best preps in yrs, you might want to make dinner resvs today, & you should really fly in that Thurs, so you can wait in line all night with the rest of the mugs(one guy last yr left the hospital while his wife was in labor) who do it every yr so that they can have their Maker\'s Mark commerative bottles signed by designated celebrities(Steve Cauthen is one this yr) beginning at 6 am. That should give you enough time to make it to the track to catch most of the works, followed by breakfast & an eye opener at the track kitchen which, if nothing else, should put you in the right frame of mind for handicapping. Whether you follow that regimen or not, I\'ll look forward to hooking up with whoever\'s here for a drink, or two, a week from tomorrow.
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Mall- I know you ain\'t talking to me with that 6 a.m./workout stuff. Had dinner with Mt. Ando the other night, see you guys next week. If you can think of an easy place to have people meet sometime between races (I\'ll be at a table), please e-mail me.
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At a table?
I picture you as more the type who would be standing outside by the track in the Clubhouse wearing white shirt, blue tie, penny loafers, and requesting drinks with a flick of the pinky finger.
And oh yeah, when the sun comes out do you open your umbrella.
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TIE??? PENNY LOAFERS???
It\'s pick\'em whether I shave, for crying out loud.
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Mall,
I plan to be there Thurs-Sunday next week and Tomorrow through Sunday this week.
Anyone up for a drink I\'m game!!
Actually Saturday of BG I just might get there for the Breakfast/works just to stake out a table early.(They let you stay there unlike Saratoga who you got to pay off....lol)
NC Tony
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Shouldn\'t your post be titled Wannawinemall?
Four extra in SectD,RowL,Seats9-12 today. Tell the usher I\'ll be there by the 4th race. Otherwise, in the sports bar working on the late pk4 at OP & watching the Masters after the Kee nightcap. 1st one\'s on me.
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mall,
missed your post. i would have been there in a sec. nice scenery today, eh? ..... i hit the 6th tri & super pretty good. bailey killed me in the 7th. i then UNLOADED on rey de cafe in the 8th. man, i thought i was home at the 1/16th pole (bailey killed me again). fun day.
and BTW, miracle man (the guy who started this string) was a pretty easy hit there. $5.40 was more than fair. the 1 horse beat me in the tri\'s though. ate up most of my winnings.
Post Edited (04-08-05 19:13)
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Funny how the scenery seems to improve when the weather is nice & a large no. of coeds sign up for the college scholarship drawings. I didn\'t get buried, but it\'s always going to be tough for me when all but one of the races pays less than $11. Surprised to read that what seemed like a huge throng was actually a little less than 16k, & that the new 10 cent super didn\'t tie up the lines. It appears to be more popular among regulars, who were grumbling some about how complicated the new betting machines are, looking to avoid signers than casual fans. Good Luck the rest of the weekend.
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Missed your post two I was in Sect D row c Seats 1&2 on Sunday and seats 22-23 on Fri.
Was upstairs at tables on Saturday.
My laptop crapped out on me this weekend.
NC Tony