Ask The Experts
General Category => Ask the Experts => Topic started by: on March 03, 2005, 09:40:24 AM
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If it weren\'t for the fact that Declan\'s Moon looks like he\'ll be able to get a perfect trip sitting just off Going Wild and Spanish Chestnut, I\'d think he was actually \"a little\" vulnerable here.
Going Wild looks to be the quicker and better of the two speeds, but it also looks like both them need a decent trip on the front end to get the route. That could play into the strategy.
With SC on the inside of GW, GW might have to either work hard to get the lead or try to rate. If neither allows the other to get away easy, which seems likely, they could compromise each others chances enough to matter.
I don\'t think Declan was so much better than GW when he left off that he can come back a little short and beat him if for some reason GW sprints clear and gets away with a decent pace. Not saying that Declan won\'t eventually be much better, but coming back off a little over 2 months and with bigger fish to fry in a few months this is not the place to expect 100%.
I can\'t imagine that Declan is wound up 100% for this race. He\'s going to have to win on sheer superiority or favorable trip. He seserves favoritism, but I suspect he doesn\'t deserve to be as big a favorite as he will be.
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CH,
2-1 on GW is a \"fair\" price in my mind. I am of the opinion that GW is quicker than Spanish Chestnut and will beat him to the lead. If the pace is really contested, then of course Declan gets the perfect trip. But I was not impressed with Declan\'s race at 1 1/16 when he beat Giacomo by 1 length.
One of the problems is that although I agree that Declan is not likely to be wound up 100%, take a look at Ron Ellis\'s numbers with this kind of layoff. 47%, 8 for his last 17. So, he usually has them wound up. Although I would definitely argue there is a big difference between winding up your claimers and allowance horses for their first start, versus winding up a horse that you want to go 1 1/4 on the first SAturday in May. But Declan\'s workouts look very sharp.
I will bite at 2-1 on GW, but I don\'t think I will get the price. The inside 3 are tomato cans.
I see something like
Declan 3-5
GW 9-5
SC 5-1
The others very long.
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Your ML odds look about right to me. I can\'t see myself betting the race. I just thought it might be worth pointing out that our Eclipse Award winning 2 year old may not be a mortal lock first out of the year in case they bet him that way.
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jim,
i don\'t remember how fast SC ran his 2f, but when tabor pulls a horse chestnut colt out of an in training sale for $500g, it\'s a safe bet he ran quarter horse time. :45 flat work last month.... i just took a look at the dam side pedigree, it\'s 100% speed. if they want the lead here, they can probably get it.
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and jim, i might have a different opinion after i take a closer look, but i think the odds on GW and SC will be closer than you think. it is tabor/biancone, and this horse did win the san rafael in the same fashion as lion heart did.
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Does anyone really think stevens is going to send Spanish Chestnut?
I think he will try to sit just off of it, and going wild should get a good trip with a fresh declans pressing, and dont discount the condition edge going wild has.
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>Does anyone really think stevens is going to send Spanish Chestnut?<
He\'s been on the lead in all of his routes and pressed fairly early in both sprints. He was a bit rank in those races. Being inside, I think he will make some attempt for the lead but perhaps give the battle up fairly quickly if Going Wild appears determined to get it. The thing is, SC\'s stretch runs in his route races hardly look like he can sit off GW and then pick him up plus hold off Declan. I think GW is the faster speed horse. So I think SC is in a difficult spot strategically if he backs off or decides to fight (unless of course he moves forward more than the others).
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Michael D. wrote
\"and jim, i might have a different opinion after i take a closer look, but i think the odds on GW and SC will be closer than you think. it is tabor/biancone, and this horse did win the san rafael in the same fashion as lion heart did\"
Only problem is that Lion ran it about 6pts faster. SC is running 6\'s, will take plenty of $$$ with a solid chance to finish off the board.
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Just a couple of quick comments regarding this race, since I have to start writing ROTW (Big Cap). Ellis was quoted recently as saying that no matter whose ratings you used the Dmr Futurity figure was \"off the charts\" (or something like that). Wrong. Not on all ratings.
Aside from whatever Ragozin gave the horse, this race gives a good example of the Beyer figures being wrong by region. The California figures are too high, Snack\'s TP figures way too low, although some of the differential there is ground loss. None of which is meant to express an opinion about this race-- Ellis is a layoff trainer, and I think the horse will run well this time, and be a bet against the rest of the way (I know Michael disagrees). Snack, on the other hand, may be killed by that last huge effort, and is dealing with an east-west ship. On the other hand, he\'s getting big weight from DM and GW, the other horses with numbers... the race is an unbettable mess.
Not so other big races Saturday.
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gvido,
yes, you could be correct (i have not downloaded the #\'s yet). i was just making a point about the probable odds....
and guys, if you don\'t like declan, there is money to be made here. the horse will take at least half of the pool and go off at 3-5 or 4-5. if you like SC or GW, just single one of them in doubles and pk3\'s. if you like one of the others, you have all kind of options.
Post Edited (03-03-05 15:39)
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Another example of the inflated California Beyers shows up in the Fountain Of Youth. Check out Papi Chullo\'s figures, compared to any and all of the Eastern horses.
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Ellis will have him ready.
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Moon hasn\'t run huge numbers. (I guess thats a good thing.) He did look like he finished with something left last, but he did catch a good spot against a couple of horses. Wilko, ran on a quarter crack discovered the very day before and later was favoring the leg. Giacomo was projected for an improve and made his forward move but wasn\'t right there pre race with him.
This time theres some quality two turn speed horses. He hasn\'t seen this kind of race before. Espinosa has stayed with the 2 yr. old champ. Would you really expect him and his agent to gamble otherwise? He\'s good, theres no doubt about it. I\'m looking at numbers that give him an edge, but is good enough to run three wide on a new surface off a layoff?
This ain\'t Hollywood anymore Toto.
TGraph has been a little leary of Beyer Cali numbers. I\'m keeping my eye on TFigs from Turfway. That track is a very odd phenomena.
CtC
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I like the analysis Michael. First off, they want to clear the tomato cans. Its a quick run to the first turn, so I think all three outside will be on the motor. You don\'t want to be wide. One of the two will probably show extra early foot. DeClans is front end but not speed crazed and he hasn\'t been trained to \"bust it\". I\'ll be surprised if he\'s not three wide or tucked in behind the other two. Its gonna be a question of being fit enough to be on the bridle with some accomplished two turn horses and outfooting them late from outside by all appearances at say 4-5?
Assuming the pace is legit and DeClan\'s puts forth the effort to overcome the impediments, how can the tomato can\'s not have their best case scenario? The speed has to go to clear and then in all likelihood wing at each other at high weights. Even if they are pure tomato can\'s do you think they will be losing or making up ground in the very end and in consideration of that, what of the track? And how much difference is there really in Spanish Chestnuts December 3rd race and DeClan\'s Moon\'s Hollywoood Futurity? Are they really that dissimilar?
Its an interesting race. It would be even more interesting with a horse like Afleet Alex or Sun King entered.
I think Going Wild is a little quicker, but he is a path more wide.
CtC
Post Edited (03-03-05 17:18)
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bottom line - warranted or not, both tabor and the lewis\' have derby dreams, and they both want to do it from the front end. a quote from biancone after the san rafael: \"he\'s got the same style as lion heart and maybe i train him better than lion heart.... he\'s just like lion heart. if you go with him, you\'re dead; and if you don\'t do, he\'s difficult to catch.\" this will be a good old fashion game of chicken.
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Was Snack a TG purchase by Oneill?
TGJB,
What evidence do you have of inflated beyers in socal? Lack of ability to transfer the figures when the horses ship to the east? Lack of results in previous triple crown and breeders cups?
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We were not involved in the purchase, from what Friedman says on their site O\'Neill uses Ragozin, although exactly what that means and what they charge is a very open question. It would have been an interesting question as to what I would have advised a client to pay for that horse, since the market for 3yos is even more nuts than the overall horse market-- big number around 2 turns, but it was in the mud, he\'s developed an awful lot, no telling whether he\'ll ever see it again. Probably a buy at 500k given the upside, tough call beyond that.
I\'ve posted several examples of inflated California numbers, last couple of years Ragozin, more recently Andy\'s. I don\'t remember the posts and don\'t want to do the work, someone else (CH?) might remember where they are. Try searching \"California figures\" or \"Beyer\".
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TGJB wrote:
> Another example of the inflated California Beyers shows up in
> the Fountain Of Youth. Check out Papi Chullo\'s figures,
> compared to any and all of the Eastern horses.
>
I\'ve been pouring over the above trying to identify the problem. I make Papi Chullo every bit of Giacomo\'s equal. I think thats still behind a horse like Kansas City Boy (TFig wise).
If Chullo is beaten by K.C.Boy, folks will say \"K.C. had better TFIGs\", but I don\'t think that will be the reason. I\'ll take Papi Chullo heads up with K.C. Boy in the Fountain of Youth, because I think he\'s a better horse and I think he\'ll be better odds.
Outside has been a tough spot there though and once again K.C. gets all the apparent breaks in early positioning. From what I can see he will be a factor.
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Defer - It appears Bailey off Defer is the last evidence needed for that one\'s potential here.
Dearest Mon - Can someone explain to me why he is back here?
High Fly - This horse doesnt move me. Others have been impressed by him. Bailey though venerable will surely find a way to give him a better run, but I\'m not so sure he really wants to go that far.
Bandini - No idea what he\'s been beating or how big T Graph makes it. Noble Causeway did come back to win a Maiden large, in slow time, is my recollection. Whoopty Doo. Obviously, he\'s saved all the ground and is getting weight. The lack of variants for the new Gulfstream surface really is a nuisance with a horse like this. (You would think they could at least produce a running variant.) Of course, this time the ground issue looks to be a factor. This time it may be a question of having enough EPO pumped into him to carry him the extra distance. (Whoops, I\'m not supposed to talk about that.)
CtC
Post Edited (03-03-05 18:24)
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JB,
Do you have a fig for Sun King\'s GP race that you can post for us.?
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It will be in the next futures package, next week. It was a new top.
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JB,
Thanks,I figured that.
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I dont think its close to that number. I can find out though.
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I would be willing to bet Going Wild against Declan if I didn\'t think there was at least \"some probability\" that SC will compromise his chances just enough that he could be best on Saturday and still lose to Declan because of the trip.
I am also fairly confident that Declan will return off the layoff with a good effort. The trainer is good off the layoff and the horse has already won off a 2 month freshening. I just think there\'s a difference between running well and being ready for a peak. These are lightly raced 3YOs. Any of them could move forward significantly and if that happens to be Going Wild, Declan is going to have to be extremely sharp off the layoff to win. In fact, he\'ll have to be so sharp I won\'t like his chances in May.
By the way, I think Going Wild is better than he looks. I made the pace of his last race a little faster than average. That\'s partly why I have an interest. I just doubt I\'ll get enough price to pull the trigger.
Post Edited (03-03-05 20:44)
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TGJB,
If the Beyer CA figures are inflated, then those horses are pretty darn weak and will be a great bet against when the horses from different sections of the country start mixing it up.
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To this point the West Coast horses have been a tad slower. To my knowledge the FOY is the first race to judge the locales upon. (Caveat Risen Star) If DeClan\'s humbles Spanish Chestnut and Going Wild maybe you can draw that conclusion.
They said the same thing last year though. And at the time they weren\'t saying it in deference to Smarty Jones. Its true the Eastern horses took the Triple Crown races. But Kalifornia finished 2nd and 3rd in the Derby. 2nd and 4th in the Preakness. Rockhard ran poorly in the Belmont in part due to his early dash. I guess we\'ll find out in the Big Cap if he has some quality to him.
CtC
Post Edited (03-03-05 19:21)
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CtC..
McPeek will likely scratch KCB with the inside draw.. He specifically wanted to get him outside. Look for him in the LA Derby instead...
(Caveat is the ownership change of Wild Desert...)
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I\'d be very surprised if McPeek scratched K.C.Boy. I can understand wanting to take him back a little and make a run, but Hallandele is playing to inside speed in my opinion. He\'s well drawn and is not a bad horse.
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posts on sub even money shots are never popular, but declan has been my horse since last summer, so i have to stick with him. hoping for a fwd move here, maybe a run in the \"1\" or \"0\" range. SC and GW are both very quick colts, i suppose it\'s possible that one of them could break loose and keep going. odds the problem though. SC might go off in the 4-1 to 9-2 range, and GW in the 3-1 to 7-2 range. not enough for me with declan involved. snack might offer some value. tough call on the odds, somewhere in the 15-1 range i guess. nice # last, and he should get a better trip than last time (especially with three of them going).
overview - declan in the doubles and pk\'s, and snack underneath. good luck everybody!!
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>Another example of the inflated California Beyers shows up in the Fountain Of Youth. Check out Papi Chullo\'s figures, compared to any and all of the Eastern horses.<
This figure is from the same day as RHT.
Assuming you are correct that RHT\'s last race was off by 3-4 Beyer points (which I believe is possible) that would mean that PC\'s figure is also off by 3-4 points.
I can agree with that. But I think that is a \"specific race/specific day issue\".
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Kansas City Boy is a FOY scratch..
Also, if you\'re playing the GPH, scratch good ol\' Free For Internet..