Ask The Experts
General Category => Ask the Experts => Topic started by: Silver Charm on March 13, 2005, 10:14:43 PM
-
Sweet Catomine seems to be headed for the Santa Anita Derby now that she has proven she has Stranglehold on the West Coast Fillies.
-
That makes two slow ones in a row. Fractions: :232, :482, 1:14, 1:381, 1:442 doesn\'t inspire confidence. Maybe the fig comes back big, but I kinda doubt it.
-
You may be correct but the cynics on this Board (certainly not me lol) have to at least be a little consistent. If a horse comes out and runs big we say the horse ran too fast too soon. If a horse only runs twice we say the horse hasn\'t run enough. If a horse or filly runs modestly fast after having run fast at two, we are concerned about not returning to its two year old top.
She came home in 30 and the west coast crop is looking weaker everyday. Some west coast trainers are almost becoming desperate.
Zito is probably sleeping better every night.
-
Don\'t count out your idol yet either. I think hes got at least one pretty good horse that could move right on up when it counts.
I think Sweet Cat gets a shot at the Santa Anita Derby with the current field outlook. I\'m skeptical about her being a Derby horse, but one time in April to give it a chance. Sure, I agree with that.
-
I think she\'s being handled perfectly. She came back well short of her best, but good enough to handle the weak fillies she was spotted against.
IMO, this race was much better than the first race back. If it wasn\'t faster (and I think it probably was), it\'s because of the slow pace. The filly that finished second is OK.
She closed well off that slow pace. Had she had a little more pace in front of her, she might have put up an even faster figure and won off even bigger.
I think she will continue to move forward. To me this is textbook perfect handling.
The obvious problem is that she\'s a filly. Even though fillies are usually ahead of colts \"development wise\" at this point (which gives them some chance in the Derby), I think a couple of the colts have already put up figures that suggest that by the time May rolls around they are going to be pretty good.
The West coast colts look pretty dreadful though. So she may have a pretty good shot in SA Derby.
The main contention might be Lukas\'s Once Wild whose chances in his last race may have been compromised by the rail not being the place to be.
-
gvido wrote:
> That makes two slow ones in a row. Fractions: :232, :482, 1:14,
> 1:381, 1:442 doesn\'t inspire confidence. Maybe the fig comes
> back big, but I kinda doubt it.
>
>
With fractions that slow how fast could the final time be?
-
Santa Anita was \"slowish\" all day on the main track yesterday.SC still is in posession of a strong burst for 3/8ths or more making her very dangerous IMO.
-
She circled the feild 4 wide on the turn and ran the lst Qtr in 24.1 and last 1/16 at 6.1 is not slow. The pace was slow.
Im Hoping but I\'ve Got $100 win on the filly in Poll 1 in the derby. Got my fingers crossed.
The Frankel Horse and the Zito Horses are the only other real contenders at this point.
-
tough to knock her performance. she ran wide tracking a slow pace and finished quite fast. corey did what he needed to do.
there is one small problem however. the filly ran two very fast races for a 2 yr old while on the shakes, and has run two average races while the spotlight has been on the cheaters. in her first race this year, she ran pretty fast early, then stopped (96,103,82 bris pace #\'s). yesterday was the other way around - she ran slow early, then fast late. can this filly run fast early AND fast late without the shakes??? tough question, but i sure wish i had gone with my instincts and bet summerly at 17-1 last month (especially since asmussen has the lab beat for now).
Post Edited (03-14-05 12:08)
-
Michael D,
A very reasonable and astute observation re Canani and Sweet Catomine. I\'ve honestly had the same thoughts.
Similarly, I wonder if Schettino(1 for 44) can get Galloping Grocer back to the level I saw last summer when Schettino knew how to train. He seems to have amnesia now.
-
it\'s sad - handicapping the oaks future has come down to determining which trainer can cheat the best. i never convict trainers who have not been caught, but we are dealing with two confirmed cheaters here.
-
and the third most likely winner, sis city, is also trained by a confirmed cheater !!!
Post Edited (03-14-05 14:16)
-
Dutrow, a confirmed cheater?? I missed that one.
-
I can\'t imagine any of the authorities in Kentucky coming forward after the Oaks or the Derby and saying that the winner tested positive. So what you have to do is get the stuff into the horse without getting caught. Once you get past that, how much do you have to worry about a post-race positive?
Not only that, but how much of a stink would they want to make BEFORE the race? If someone generates a pre-race positive, doesn\'t that reflect negatively on the security, arrangements, etc.?
I\'ve got to believe the powers that be will protect their \"brand\" at all costs.
In the past, I thought you could tell how a trainer\'s horses would do based on how they ran on the undercard. After this year\'s BC, I think certain trainers may be willing to sacrifice their undercard horses for the Big One. Another scenario to consider....
How many clients can WMerc handle down there? Don\'t the customers get pissed at him if he goes to more than one barn for the same race?
HP
-
Harthill was found raoming the backstretch a year or two ago in the middle of the night totally unsupervised.
I am not sure but I think loaded syringes were being left in the tack room desk drawers of assistant trainers. Then he can say he never went into any horse stalls and when the assistant trainer goes in, no one even turns a eye.
-
I Thought they sold Sis City to McNair (Im sure its the same outfit as Sort it Out went to) and not sure she is still in Dutrow\'s care.
-
HP said :In the past, I thought you could tell how a trainer\'s horses would do based on how they ran on the undercard. After this year\'s BC, I think certain trainers may be willing to sacrifice their undercard horses for the Big One. Another scenario to consider....
Could you go into this more?? I don\'t quite understand?? These things are going to have to be on a case to case?? Break it down??
-
Zito on the undercard #1) Belmont Day 04
Zito on the undercard #2) FOY day this year
I always bet Zito on the undercard of a Big Race Day
-
Hi Kev,
I went against Ghostzapper, because I didn\'t think Frankel\'s horses did that well earlier in the card. I know there are plenty of other reasons why Frankel\'s other horses may not have won or run well on the undercard. I\'m sure others can go horse by horse and explain why the others did what they did.
I have been watching horse races for 25 years. I can only call that Classic performance....freaky. The other Frankel horses....did not look.....freaky. They looked....ordinary.
NoCalTony may be right about Zito. I don\'t know. I only know what I think I saw. And this is bumming me out. HP
-
HP I was with you this year with frankel on GZ on breeders Cup day aftet wathing one Frankel after the other come up short just like they did the year before in Santa Anita. SO I BAILED on the obvious Horse for those reasons. Only to watch him run his Eyes out. For what it\'s worth Bobby F also trains for the Ramseys\' Owners of the #2 Horse Roses in May. Ever wonder why that one never pushed GZ earlier in the race?
-
This isn\'t aimed at anyone in particular, but I think it\'s really sad that practically every single Stake race result is interpreted in terms of drugs.
-
class,
sad is the right word. some go too far on this board, accusing trainers based on # patterns and nothing else. the truth is, however, that the top three oaks candidates are trained by trainers who have been busted for positives recently. sad.
Post Edited (03-14-05 17:46)
-
CH
I am to the point where I will not even consider \"it\" anymore and just assume the facts as I see them historically and trying to project what will happen that day. Trying to out guess who is on or off costs me money. I am going to assume a level playing field based on the history of the horse/trainers performance until they go south like Oscar or Pete did years ago. These guys are high profile guys. If they are using they will get cought someday or some will be looking to make money will talk. I can\'t believe everyone keeps their mouth shut like they did up until watergate. Now its too fashionable to rat on the rats to take care of themselves. Are there drugs in Racing - YES OF COURSE. Find them. Until that point in time, as long as I am investing my money, I\'m playing based on recent history and trends and horse capability.
I will bet certain Frankel Horses Early in the campaign, I will bet certain Dutrow runners off the claim, I will bet Pletcher early in the campaign. (I still couldn\'t figure Vicarage this past week but oh well). I\'m sure Vicarage will probably end up in the Blue Grass and place in the money then too, and clunk up for fourth in the derby at lot like Limehouse.
NC Tony
-
Class:
Its because we are all conspiracy theorists looking for reasons why we don\'t win consistently as horseplayers. Somebody posted yesterday that for all of their powers, Frankel and Pletcher still lose 70% of the time. Good point. At Belmont in the spring, I like to look for seriously overbet Frankel/ Bailey productions, especially in N1X N2X races. With at least a 70% failure rate, this combo burns some serious money.
Two regular posters on this board also commented that they have been enduring a bit of a handicapping cold streak, it must be the drugs/vets.
Soon we\'ll be hearing that the White Mercedes was on the grassy knoll, or seen landing at Roswell.
When Harthill had his own barn at Fairgrounds back in the 80s-- the stories I could tell. Talk about Area 51
-
If you all use and belive in the TG numbers than here\'s something on Bobby F....this year\'s BC..........
1. Ghostzapper 1st and didn\'t run his top.
2. Light Jig 7th-7 1/2, ran his top
3. Nothing To Lose 11th-4 3/4, -1 top ran a 1.2
4. Cajun Beat 5th-3 1/4, 1/2pt off his top
5. Midas Eyes 10th-5 1/2, -3.3 top ran a -0.2
6. Megahertz really X\'ed.
How did he do?? on getting them up to par??
-
Back to the issue at hand:
Recently, Halfbridled and Storm Flag Flying were two \"super fillies\" that earned big figs in the BC like Sweet C, and were talked up for the Derby. Neither ever surpassed their 2yo tops.
Sweet C is by Storm Cat who throws precocious runners. The TGI for Storm Cats show 1pt improvement 2 to 3 and 3 to 4. I\'m guessing those improvements came primarily from slower SC offspring, not the very fast 2yos.
The two slow return runs don\'t inspire me at all.
-
Miff:
How can you expect anything out of the Grocer after you saw the way Sort It Out ran Saturday? GG has still not shown anything outside of NY, and even a win in the Gotham would not convince me he is Triple Crown material.
Memo to McNair\'s re Sort It Out; Inner Dirt track closes Friday, reopens first week December, see ya then.
Derby: Afleet Alex (no value round 2 future at 8/1) has iron form. He has fired in every race he has run in, and at 5 different tracks.
My future bets: Noble Causeway (18), Sun King (10) and Wilko (21). I keep thinking about Noble Causeway\'s dad\'s race at CD in 2000 in the BC Classic.
-
Rich,
Grocer put in a giant effort against Rockport Harbor last year. In his return this year he was very fresh and on the muscle(grabbing on too hard early) according to Angel Cordero.If he doesn\'t run big next out, I\'ll agree to X him out also.
I wouldn\'t be too hard on inner tube performer\'s, remember Smarty.
-
>Its because we are all conspiracy theorists looking for reasons why we don\'t win consistently as horseplayers. <
If it makes you feel any better, I am not doing very well this year. I don\'t bet very often to begin with, but I\'m having a tougher time than ever finding something I think is an overlay in any of the major stakes. I\'ve only made 6 prime bets so far this year and they all lost. The good news is that the favorite I was betting against finished off the board in every case except Badge of Silver Saturday and I wasn\'t expecting him to run poorly. I just thought he could get beat at 9F. Maybe the track helped him.
I have to tell you though, I haven\'t come out of any of the races feeling that drugs were a factor in my loss even if some of the horses are drugged. The races were fairly formful. The vulnerable favorites have run poorly. My horses just didn\'t the get job done.
Post Edited (03-14-05 19:17)
-
Neither were sound or ran well before Derby or Oaks, not sure if the comparison fits.
-
richiebee wrote:
> Miff:
>
> How can you expect anything out of the Grocer after you saw
> the way Sort It Out ran Saturday?
Baffert had stated shortly after the purchase the horse had lost weight and needed some time. (When a trainer says bad things about his horse I pay it a little bit more mind.) TGJB stated Baffert might have some problems moving him up off Iwinski, but to make the Derby you need to get so many starts in. I\'m not sure Baffert had to go in the La.Derby, but I was skeptical of seeing his best.
I guess it depends upon two things. 1. Do you think you saw Grocers best in the Whirlaway and 2. Do you think you saw Sort it Outs best in the La. Derby.
-
Chuckles:
I observed that the McNair\'s, and not Baffert, were probably keen on going in the La. Derby. I am on record as saying, numerous times, that this was a bad purchase, that SIO was the type of animal we see here at AQ every winter, the type of animal who just loves something about the composition of the inner tube and is really only average (or worse) on any other surface.
I also have never liked horses shipping from cold climate to warm in the middle of winter.
I expect to see a radical drop off in performance from two current inner tube superstars-- Stellianos and Bank Audit-- when they compete on other NYRA surfaces.
Interesting that Galloping Grocer and Rockport Harbor, who battled each other in the second fastest 9 furlong Remsen in history, both came back a little worse for wear early in their 3YO seasons. A case of too far, too fast as 2YOs?
-
Baffert went on record after the buy and stated: \"I picked him out myself\".
If the horse was pushed into the La Derby against his wishes, NOBODY pushed him into buying what you have stated on many times to be an average animal.
He stated in a DRF article last summer at milkshake city Del Mar, written by Steve Anderson, regarding his two year old crop, \"I\'m loaded\".
Finally he and I agree on something.
-
lol
I don\'t know, whose he got? FuRuler and FuRock right? And now Sort of Uncertain...lol
He had an off year last year as well, but the years not over. It doesn\'t look overly promising but I wouldn\'t count him out in the Crown races just yet. Maybe he\'s workin on EPO or whatever the other guys are mixin.
I\'ll concede the inner tube horses haven\'t come forward in the Triple Crown, at least to my knowledge, but these things are great to buck. For whatever reason SOI was not up to speed in the La. Derby and I think Gallop gets one more chance. I also like Scrappy and Naughty. I think they are pretty good horses. Can they handle the likes of Alex, Sun King and High Limit? I don\'t know about that. Its step up time.
-
do you still think it\'s sad that i changed the subject on this string from \"cat scratch fever\" to \"beware\"? the filly went to the hyperbaric chamber to be treated with oxygen while she was on the illegal road trip last week. do you still think this was \"textbook perfect handling\"? (glad i didn\'t bet summerly - looks like i was wrong there).
-
Michael,
\"do you still think this was \"textbook perfect handling\"?\"
I don\'t know what to think of the whole situation. I generally assume there\'s a lot of things going on that I don\'t know about, but I sort of expect more when it comes to Grade 1 horses and races.
I did think she was being handled perfectly in terms of bringing her up to a peak effort. I also thought she was overbet in the SA Derby though. I had no insight whatsoever into anything being wrong.
-
nobody can handicap these things - that\'s what sucks so much.
-
Yeah, class, it really sucks when you have to be right twice to collect once.
Having the right knock and still tearing them up, it\'s one of the nastiest parts of the game. One theory I have is that a beatable favorite frequently appears in a race where the others are inscrutable.
My condolances.
-
Michael D. wrote:
> nobody can handicap these things - that\'s what sucks so much.
Yeah, but I bet you the information is IN THE POOL.