Ask The Experts
General Category => Ask the Experts => Topic started by: on March 24, 2005, 09:49:10 PM
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I think a good case can me made for a bunch of different horses in this race because so many of them seem set for an improved effort.
It will be interesting to see how they bet it.
For what it\'s worth, Texcess\'s last 3 races are all better than they look. I don\'t know if he\'s good enough to win, but he\'s better than he looks.
The Delta Downs race is the very hot paced race that Closing Argument came out of to run so well against High Fly. Texcess was on that pace, not just off it like CA.
In the San Rafael he got pushed wide on the first turn and was used to stay in contention.
In his last he was used hard again in the middle of the race to put away another horse and held OK.
I think they should just take him off the pace a couple of lengths and move later. Maybe Douglas will give him a decent trip just off the other speeds.
Post Edited (03-25-05 15:53)
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CH..
Aguirre says that Douglas has been riding Texcess in the mornings and has done wonders with him.. I think he gets first jump on the hot pace.
Haven\'t seen the figs yet, but I already know I\'m going to use Diamond Isle. First of all, note that Sarvis is the ONLY colony local with a mount here... TP is plenty quirky and I think his pressence counts for something on a horse sure to save all the ground. Also figure losing the mount on Magna Grad after the good job in the Battaglia should be motivating..
Additionally:
1.) Isle\'s previous pair of 2nd starts..
significant improvement BOTH times..
2.) Lost to Bellamy Rd., Consolidator, Patriot Act in those 2 juvy stakes..
3.) One of only 2 with a race at the trip (Wild Desert the other)..
4.) Only Gr. I participant here..
5.) 15-1
FWIW... And as always, previous handicapping prowess is no guarantee of future success.
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Diamond Isle is on a long list of horses I think could be ready to move forward.
One of my favorite patterns for a lightly raced 3 YO is a workout since his last race that\'s much faster than has been typical to that point. Flower Ally, Spanish Chestnut, and Texcess all show that pattern.
Heck, I could easily make a decent case for any number of horses to move forward. In fact, it wouldn\'t shock me if this race is run a lot faster than it looks going in. There are that many horses that could run tops.
Post Edited (03-25-05 15:52)
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Really going out on a limb there aren\'t ya CH? Predicting that spring 3yo\'s are going to run new tops? WOW, thanks for the update...
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gvido,
ROTFLOL. :-)
I guess what I meant to say is that in this case it doesn\'t look like there\'s just a couple that are ready for a big move forward. It looks like practically the whole field is coming up to race ready for a big effort.
Post Edited (03-26-05 10:39)
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The biggest question with TEXCESS is: Has he been injected again? That is, since his last race?
Is THAT what prompted the recent string of bullet works? Behind Aguirre\'s comments that TEXCESS
is only now \"100%\" and \"a different horse\" now?
Your move.
JohnTChance
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He\'s going to run a big race. At 6-1 ML I\'m in.
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at 6/1 it\'s WILD DESERT for me......TOOO MUCH SPEEEED for TEXcess!!!!!
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Wild desert is the slowest horse in the race on # power, will have to jump up 4+ to be competitive. I\'m looking at Mayan King at a price, 2nd fastest horse in the race, pair up does it.
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Just finished ROTW, should be up in an hour or so. Interesting race.
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I think the key for Texcess is that he has to try to lay off the pace. If he gets involved with a quality speed like Spanish Chestnut going fast, one or both is going to pay for it enough to cost them going 9F.
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In the ROTW analysis, Jerry points out that trainer Jennifer Pederson won this race with
SONG OF THE SWORD [in 2003 I think, less than two years ago]. Yet the trainer category
for Pederson indicates NO wins at Turfway [0 for 2]. Sorry to be a stickler about such stuff,
but... why is that? Why doesn\'t your database include this win?
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Wasn\'t it New York Hero in \'03 for Ernie, Jenn and \'Berto? Not SOTS..
(As to Pederson\'s stats, I believe the full page reports initiate from 6/27/04, but JB and others will know definitively.)
Post Edited (03-25-05 17:36)
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Your right, New York Hero did win in 03. SOTS was 2nd in the Illnois Derby and 3rd in the Lexington stakes for the same connections.
xichibanx
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Yes, you\'re right. It was NYH.
But as to the 6/27/04 date... that would mean Todd Pletcher had 1731 starts within the last 9 months, and Zito 1027 starts and Robert Desensi 95 starts within that time frame. If it was up to me, that stat should be at least TWO full years worth. That is,
the past 24 months.
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While we\'re at it, there should be a category for how the trainer is doing over the last 30 days. While 90 is a fine break off point, he may have been hot 60 days ago and cold the last 30 and vice versa.
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John-- I saw that myself, we\'re trying to figure out what\'s going on.
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Jennifer Pedersens horses are juiced to the gills right now, i\'ve heard that her days are numbered and she is trying to win with everything. If you don\'t believe me just look at Pavo in the Gotham.How loaded was that horse?
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Rich....Wild Desert will be the slowest for the first mile and a 16th.
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Interesting that another speed figure maker whose figures I respect has Mayan King running a 91 (broken out from the actual figure of 97) in his last start vs. the 86 Beyer gave him.
He also has Mr Sword running a 95 in his last start vs. an 84 from Beyer.
Since the methodolgies of Beyer and this other source are identical, ground loss or other factors do not account for the wide discrepancy.
It\'s enough to turn a guy into a classhandicapper. :-)
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Oh yeah, I can see it now: Mayan KIng and Mr Sword running 1-2 approaching the far turn - both at odds of 9-1 and a pre start exacta of about $180.00. Then the odds drop dramatically on the turn to 5-2 for each of them. They run 1-2 and the exacta pays $38.40.
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How is TP on outside horses at 9F. That is the one concern that i have about mayan king and mr sword(although they will be part of my plays. This is one of the more interesting derby preps that i have seen this season
Also, the bourbonette, anyone see Easily pulling an upset?
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JEB..
Turfway HAD been playing unusually well for outside speed at over a mile the past week.. Until yesterday, when the inside jumped up.
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Box Flower Alley, Andromeda\'s Hero and Wild Desert. Good luck to all. HP
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I like Mr. Sword too but you can see just from this thread that the horse is going to get bet. Also, there are several negatives to consider.
Bad post obviously.
Never ran against good horses.
Note the large discrepancy between work of 2/23 and works since last race. The last work is particularly disturbing because Pedersen works her horses fast. Hope the dogs were set wide.
Arroyo is always a threat to foul somebody or do something stupid.
In spite of all this I still like the horse.
Like Pedersen\'s horses in the two earlier stakes - particularly Amazing Buy.
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Since the race is so wide open, there are several discrepancies between speed figure makers, several horses look like they are ready to break out etc... I think one thing is fairly certain. You have to throw out the chalk (whoever that winds up being) and try to beat him.
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I agree, there are about 4 or so good enough to win, no way you can take a short price. I see no reason that a horse like mayen king cant improve slightly and win this affair
classhandicapper wrote:
> Since the race is so wide open, there are several discrepancies
> between speed figure makers, several horses look like they are
> ready to break out etc... I think one thing is fairly certain.
> You have to throw out the chalk (whoever that winds up being)
> and try to beat him.
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With the 4 and the 8 the first 2 choices you just have to get involved in this race and you can spread very thin !
Post Edited (03-26-05 17:19)
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nice call
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I can\'t believe Mr. Sword didn\'t hang out for second. Ouch! Texcess was dreadful. He must not have liked the off track because he can\'t be that bad. For what it\'s worth, you can\'t find a more bettable race than this.
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I hate to be the kind of horseplayer who blames the jockey when he loses, but I\'d really rather not see Norberto Arroyo on any horses I like for a while.
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bally,
haha.... arroyo can do some strange things on the track. unusual move there. the horse just stopped, ran the final eighth in about 14 seconds...... pletcher\'s horse has some serious stamina influences on the dam side. given the collapse, he probably looked better than he is, but he is a nice horse. too tough for me though. i couldn\'t separate the top five.
.......
sadlers wells, lyphard, and vaguely noble on the bottom side of FA\'s pedigree. do we have another funny cide? ...... probably not.
Post Edited (03-26-05 18:11)
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loved the way the jock got 9 hoss to rail in back stretch.....can you rate such a litely raced steed? dont know internal fractions ...can only observe his finish in conjunction w/baileys ride on seasoned hoss w/jerrys exp. would this horse have collapsed no matter how he was ridden?....yes he my key...yes everyone has stated on tv about premature move,but that was one dead animal in mid stretch.is he bred to go a distance...this is the price i was willing to pay when betting 3rd lifetime in a big race
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HP was the only one who doped this out--nice work...hope you had it loaded.
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think the \"other figure makers\" got wild desert\'s last # correct? too early to tell i guess. we will know a lot more after the fla derby next week.
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Michael-- First of all, this was an off track, and we don\'t know what he ran today yet. The FOY day the track was changing quite a bit, but I would be pretty surprised if I got it wrong-- it wasn\'t a tough call. We\'ll see what numbers they all run as they come back.
Tell you what, though. Between Dubai and this one I\'m liking my field bet more and more. Scipion is down, Proud Accolade etc.-- if they get 20, I\'m guessing I have 10.
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yea, i kind of like your field bet as well. but as i said, we will know a lot more after HF, bandini, and noble causeway run next week. my guess is that one of those three will emerge as the derby favorite (and i\'m starting to think it\'s not the one that i have).
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MD-- If you mean favored in the betting, I would be shocked if the Fla Derby winner is favored. Blue Grass will be the big-time (and big name) prep, and if SC beats the colts at SA she\'ll be shorter too.
John T-- I had a very interesting conversation with someone in a position to do something yesterday. Help may be on the way, at least in California, although my guess is it would be 3 months or so before it makes a difference.
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Check the charts on races 7, 8, and 9. Amazing similarity.
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Bally Ache:
I\'d rather hear from someone who blames the jockey when a horse loses than hear from someone who credits the vet when a horse wins.
You might not have to worry too much about seeing Norberto on horses you bet on. He has at least 20, and maybe 30, days of suspension pending for three identical infractions. In each case, he bore out severely in the stretch at AQ, resulting in a DQ.
It doesn\'t seem like he can finish strongly AND ride a straight course.
As anyone who has read previous posts from this corner knows, I am not a huge Ken Ramsey fan, but I was happy for him today, hanging out with all those Sheikhs.
Post Edited (03-26-05 22:33)
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I had a lot of tough beats yesterday. The two that gall me are the Bourbonette & Rushaway.
Just take a good look at the horse that finished second in the Bourbonette and then look at the horse that won the Rushaway.
They cost me a lot of money and I don\'t think, objectively, you could bet either horse with confederate money.
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Author: richiebee
Date: 03-26-05 22:31
\"You might not have to worry too much about seeing Norberto on horses you bet on. He has at least 20, and maybe 30, days of suspension pending for three identical infractions. In each case, he bore out severely in the stretch at AQ, resulting in a DQ.\"
I wouldn\'t be surprised if some of those rides weren\'t done intentionally, to DQ his mount. I\'ve seen him take a quick looks and continue the whip knowing the action will affect the outcome. It wouldn\'t surprise me if someday he\'s indicted for race fixing....
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It wouldn\'t surprise me if several of the riders @the Big A were suspended. There is alot of funny business going on there.Norberto is one of several i think are screwing around, i especially like when he circles to the top looms giant in the lane ,then he just stops riding.Bridgmahon and Bejerano are mechanics, they make it look real good.I had Bejerano in a turf race in November he made the lead 4w and loomed large ,then he actually waited and looked inside to Johnny V. When Johnny took the lead Bejerano started to hit his mount again and just missed what a great stiff job!!!! check out the race see the P.P\'s for Lukelynn the Reynolds horse that Bejerano rode that day
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\"Poolstick cue\" Norberto?
Remember--this is the guy that nearly killed EVENING ATTIRE last year in the Mass Cap??
PS: For those of you wondering why I call him \"poolstick,\" it\'s because that\'s what he used several years ago to beat up someone in a pool room before being arrested. The guy must have been winning.
Good Luck,
Joe B.