Ask The Experts
General Category => Ask the Experts => Topic started by: JohnTChance on March 30, 2005, 03:46:32 PM
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We know that the ThoroGraphs are the best speed figures in the world.
But one of the BEST UNSUNG features in the Thorograph product is the
first-time starter data, which, I\'m proud to say I helped enhance by suggesting
to Jerry the idea of LISTING the past first-timers and the specific ThoroGraph
speed figures a trainer\'s horses have run in their debuts. Soon after ThoroGraph
put that data in their sheets, Jerry said to me: \"It\'s interesting. But I\'m not quite
sure how to USE it?\" I\'m sure that to many, much of it is overkill. But I\'d
encourage ThoroGraph users to pay attention to this stuff, because, if you
look hard enough and enjoy the minutia like many of us do, you can find
profitable plays.
Here\'s how the ThoroGraph first-timers data helped me on Saturday.
In this past Saturday\'s big Turfway card, I was drooling at the past
performances of that day\'s second race because it contained a first-time
starter working bullets named HIGH RISE from the barn of an obscure
Kentucky-based trainer named Tom Bergin. If you looked in the Racing
Form past performances under Bergin\'s name, you\'d see he was 1 for 6
with his first time starters. However, the ThoroGraphs showed you the
following red-alert stat:
1st time out mdn over 10-1: 6 - 50% - 67% - $20.83 ROI
Wow! That\'s as red-alert a stat as you\'re ever going to find!
On top of that, Bergin unleashed a first-timer named KELLY\'S LANDING
that won spectacularly at 12-1 EXACTLY A YEAR AGO, ALSO ON LANES
END DAY AT TURFWAY! He ran away and hid by nine lengths that day,
running a single digit ThoroGraph in his debut. [Now the bad news: Unfortunately,
the ThoroGraph listing of the \"Trainer\'s last 15 firsters\" for Bergin didn\'t include
KELLY\'S LANDING! Probably because after winning his first two starts,
the gelding was switched to the barn of trainer Eddie Kenneally, so the
programming \"query\" didn\'t \"take\" him to be listed under Bergin\'s name.]
Would Bergin have HIGH RISE ready to win like he did last year on the
same big day of racing when the pools are large, and a national audience
interested? And betting coups might happen? Just as KELLY\'S LANDING
did last year, HIGH RISE opened at 8-1 and then drifted to 12-1, and then
he eventually settled at 10-1. Given the stats, given the past history of what
he did on last year\'s card, given that Bergin had his jock Jeff Johnston up,
given the sharp works, HIGH RISE was a very logical colt to focus around.
[Hmnph. I wonder whether Bergin uses the vet Greg Fox. Long story deleted.]
Anyway, HIGH RISE broke fast and wired the field... until his final stride
when he was beaten by JAMAICA BAY, one of three logical contenders
in the 10 horse field. [I wish I could have told you that HIGH RISE won going
away. It would have made a much better story. But the colt certainly delivered
the mail. He ran great.] The exacta with HIGH RISE in second came back a
juicy $99.
ThoroGraph gives you unique information which can be used to your
advantage. Long live those first-timer stats and listings. Let\'s see if Bergin
sets one up for next year on Lane\'s End day. Someone remind me.
JohnTChance
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John T,
Well said.
NC Tony