Ask The Experts
General Category => Ask the Experts => Topic started by: Michael D. on March 31, 2005, 07:43:12 PM
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Florida Derby is ROTW.
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thanks..... very disappointed in the fla derby day card. i guess you can\'t blame GP though. looks like strangles caused some to run, and if bandini didn\'t get hurt, the fla derby still would have been the second best prep of \'05. they did a pretty good job filling some of these races, but the early ones leave very little betting opportunities....... can anyone beat zito?
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Michael D.
The only thing you can blame them for is moving it to the date they did 5 weeks out from the Kentucky derby versus the traditional date. They blew that. The disease thats going around exaserbates the issue.
I hope they move it back to the traditional date next year.
NC Tony
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Frank moved the date to keep the good horseman around for an extra month. The \'strangles\' outbreak has really hurt.
I\'m guessing the date will remain the same.
They\'ll really have to hustle to get anywhere close to last years handle numbers of $23 mill. The short fields don\'t help...
Post Edited (03-31-05 22:48)
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GVIDO,
It is my understanding that 5 weeks between races is not the ideal scenario for conditioning. 3-4 weeks appears to be.
Nothing is in stone on that, but thats been my assessment. 5-6 weeks seems to leave them short for prime effort. perhaps JB\'s data base will have the answer.
NC Tony
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na tony ....... if bandini didn\'t get hurt, this would have been clearly the second best prep of \'05. pletcher is on record saying that five weeks is the ideal window. read the t\'bred times article. pletcher goes on and on about how five weeks is perfect timing going into the derby. eight trainers seem to agree. watch next year. no strangles, and a bit more luck regarding injuries, and this will wind up being the ultimate kentucky derby prep. trust me.
Post Edited (03-31-05 22:58)
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Ok Michael D, I do have good bit of respect for your opinion so I\'ll keep an open mind. I guess what is hard to assess, is that trainers will now have 4-5 races prior to derby vs 3-4. Maybe that\'s good for handicappers like us. Maybe not.
Time will tell I guess.
NC Tony
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In my opinion, Stronach has taken what used to be the single best meet of the year (including Saratoga) and done God knows what with it.
Moving the Fla. Derby was only one mistake. At least that\'s correctible and will be, if not next year, soon after.
What about the reconfiguration of the track. It seems now to be more of a speed track than ever. The 1 1/8 mile races are a joke. The stretch is too short. All these races at a flat mile for cheap horses?
And maybe the biggest mistake of all, no 1 1/16 mile races which give developing 3 yr. olds a chance to try two turns with less stress than 1 1/8. Both the FOY & Fla. Derby are now 1 1/8. Dumb, really dumb.
Oh, and don\'t forget the purses. How do they get away with running such small purses in the everyday races? I seldom bet GP anymore.
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I noticed Beyer must have split the variants for the Fla Derby card. Noble Causeway ran 6 lengths slower in the allowance 8th race than The Fla Derby went in the 11th.
Yet High Fly got a 99 and NC got a 96.
Interested to see if TG agrees…..
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BA,
When was the last time Gulfstream was the best meet of the year? A long, long time ago is the answer.
Moving the Florida Derby was an excellent move. It provides a major final prep five weeks out for those trainers that believe three weeks from final prep to big dance is too short.
The move will also keep big barns in Florida a few weeks longer as soon as the bigger, slot fueled overnight purses kick in.
I read recently where they are lengthining the runup for the 1 1/8 mile races in the hope that the outside horses will have a better chance to win than they had at this meet.
I love the mile races. They are the fairest races run. Post position and running style should have less effect on the outcome given the long run to the only turn.
I\'m looking forward to great meets in the future. There will be more competitive purses, a new facility for the fans and improved simulcast areas. The horsemen seem to love the surface at GP as well as the one at the Palm Meadows training center. The new grass course is top notch, a huge improvement over the previous disaster of a course. The weather isn\'t too bad either.
Frank
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\"[Gulfstream] used to be the single best meet of the year (including Saratoga)\"
be careful, that limb is a little weak that you\'re on. ;)
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I don\'t know how far back you guys go, but I remember Saratoga when it actually was what they try to pretend it is today.
First of all there used to be NO NY-bred races.
By the time the 2yr-olds got there they had established form and those races were much more bettable. In fact, I think it would be fair to say that 2yr.-old racing was the best part of the Sar meet. I know that sounds hard to believe because now it\'s all 1st or 2nd time starters.
Also, fewer turf races at about a mile & 3/8s for NW1 other than. To me, that\'s just a lottery and it\'s one facet that\'s easily correctible.
Basically, it was bigger fields & better horses.
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I agree. As much as I love Saratoga, the quality has been diluted almost as fast as it has gotten more and more crowded. Not a good combo.
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Dont forget what Yogi Berra says:
\"Nobody goes there anymore, its too crowded\"
My opinion based on quality of racing:
1) Saratoga (NY breds produce full fields and wild betting races).
2) Del Mar (never been, so this one is on hearsay info)
3) Spring Keeneland
4) Fall Keeneland (weather can be dicey here)
5) Fall Belmont (3,4, and 5 photo finish) (move to 3 if you think there is too much 2YO
racing at Keeneland)
6) Gulfstream. Good job by Frank Stro with the surfaces. Nobody would miss the Sunshine Millions if it went away. How about hiring some good racing people and letting them keep their jobs for more than a few months? I think New York horsemen all want to be up North before April 1 given normal weather, so there is really not much Frank can do in April other than conduct Calder at Gulf racing. Entire stables are not going to alter their travel plans based on the positioning of one stakes race. Maybe he could run a series of big turf races in April to draw interest?
Post Edited (04-01-05 13:31)
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come on boys...the only reason fla. racing was so good in past[and present] is because new york owners brought their animals down w/them for the season.fla. never had to offer much of a purse for anything ungraded...there was no winter racing except bowie and ky. was also dark.so the wealthy came from both states w/trainers in tow and dominated the locals and their steeds
warm weather decades ago was a pleasure the idle rich excelled at and without cable hookup the rest of us [the rooted ones]gawked at every visual and soundbite that came our way from the land over the rainbow.
PARTYpokerON
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Going by the TG figs in the race of the week, it appears Beyer screwed up the number for Noble Causeway, making him look nearly as fast as High Fly.
DRF website poll has Noble Causeway as the favorite.
To me, the race decision will come down to hammereing High Fly to win and in the exotics, or hoping he runs an off race. In that case, things get very interesting if you can also toss the likely 2nd choice Noble Causeway and throwout Evil Minister.
Some options to think about....
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Illbred-- The track definitely was getting faster on FOY day, and that race was tight-- I posted the sheets for all the horses in it here a couple of days ago. Both Andy and Len appear not to have the track changing, at least late in the card, which is more of a surprise with Beyer than Ragozin, who basically uses an average track speed for a day.
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If you read the papers down here there will be no slot fueled overnight purses...
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I\'m confused.
Beyer\'s figs for the day would indicate that he DID have the track getting faster.
NC (96 beyer) ran six lengths slower than High Fly (99 beyer).
If I understand correctly, you\'re saying he got it right then, as far as splitting the day\'s variant goes?
Post Edited (04-01-05 15:50)
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Beyer definitely split the variant.
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Okay, now I\'m confused too.
We gave HF 2 points better than NC, which would mean 6-7 Beyer points. But he was wider on the turns, which Beyer doesn\'t take into account, so if he did those two races the way we did that would give him about 3 points better, which is what he gave him. So yes, he did at least that part of the day the same way we did. BUT-- only relative to itself. They have both races too fast, by quite a bit-- which is why I got confused. Andy and Ragozin both have the FOY about 2-3 TG points too fast, Beyer also has the other race too fast. Len might have the NC race about right, since he uses the average speed of the track, and the track for that race was about average for the day.
Which is not to say High Fly won\'t run that fast this time-- just that he didn\'t run that fast last time.
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Interesting.....thanks for the clarification.
I am a pattern rookie, but ... I guess High Fly\'s 2-pt bounce was small enough that it is viewed positively, given his overall pattern.
Thanks again