Ask The Experts
General Category => Ask the Experts => Topic started by: Silver Charm on April 03, 2005, 11:43:05 AM
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Lots will be discussed over the next Five Weeks about horses coming into the Derby off a slightly longer than normal layoff. Can they still win the race??
Being someone who was somewhat of a skeptic regarding High Fly I have to say after yesterday he may in the drivers seat. He will be very rested, fresh off the five weeks and has already run a mile once and a mile and an eighth THREE TIMES. Nobody else will go into Derby with that kind of bottom.
His solid tactical speed will put him wherever he wants to sit and the extra time going in gives the trainer the opportunity to do whatever he wants with him. Speed drills, stamina drills, light work, heavy work you name it.
I am not saying this is my selection but High Fly has already done what the others have yet to do. And yet when those others do it one week from now, experts will try and tell you they can win the Derby but High Fly can not.
Believe what you want.
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I disclose that I have High Fly in Vegas at big odds... plus more $ at 30-1 in Future 1 and 20-1 in Future 2. That was a huge effort yesterday and I agree with everything Silver Charm says. HF will be in the garden seat in the Derby behind whoever wants to run on the lead. Zito will have him wound tight for Derby Day and this horse is sound and completely fit. One 12 hour virus since he stepped foot on a track is amazing in this era.
Speed-fig for yesterday:
HF was only .14 seconds slower than Skip Away winner Eurosilver who had a previous top of 1. HF carried 9 more pounds (about 2 pts?) than Eurosilver and their trips were not much different. Noble Causeway is the wild card. He only had a 5\" top - how big a jump up will he be given?
We\'ll see this weekend when Future Book 3 #s are out.
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There\'s a few ways to go for HIGH FLY fig. I think. He either ran back to the 1.2 ( top ) or he paired up his last 3.2 or he moved forward a bit to say a 2.2 or 3.0 so out of all these, is there one that makes him run a big one in the derby?
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If he ran back to his top, then I don\'t really know how much faster he needs to run.
So far nobody has run faster than he has at a Mile and an Eighth. And if they do with an extra week or two development does that mean this trainer can\'t get this horse to move forward.
Sun King has won once around two turns and that was at Tampa Downs. A filly will be the horse to beat in the Santa Anita Derby. There is a wagon load of people who love both those two. People on ESPN yesterday were still calling Sort it Out a Derby contender.
The Five Weeks Rest debate came about when I heard two completely different opinions from two very smart handicappers. Jeff Siegal stated yesterday that one could perhaps ignore the layoff discussion going into the Derby because in most cases it probably was an indication of soundness or lack thereof. I agree, and with the major Derby Preps traditionally being only two to three weeks out from the Derby, who was bypassing those big races. Nobody with a fit horse. And yet only a couple of weeks ago I heard Kurt Hoover state that after last year he was convinced nobody could come into the Derby off a layoff and win.
Who is right.
I will admit that a Prep three weeks or two weeks out does have a horse on the muscle Derby Day. And when it was won by a Calif shipper coming in off the four week break the horse usually had a trainer (Whittingham and Baffert) who put their campaigners thru some serious drills between then and Derby Day.
One thing is for sure in regards to the Five Weeks Rest, Zito isn\'t guessing and most handicappers will be.
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Zito is talking about giving Noble Causeway ome more race (Lexington) before the Derby. He\'s not as sure about horse\'s conditioning from what I gathered in his interview after the race.
NC Tony
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I perceive him as more of a Belmont Bullet for Zito to fire.
However if a fresh High Fly wins the Derby and goes into the Preakness a dead fit horse, and comes out a winner, would you load another bullet and possibly see your Triple Crown hopes be shot down by friendly fire.
Tough Call
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\"HF was only .14 seconds slower than Skip Away winner Eurosilver who had a previous top of 1. HF carried 9 more pounds (about 2 pts?) than Eurosilver and their trips were not much different.\"
IMO, HF may have had the tougher trip.
Eurosilver was loose on the lead and unpressured for part of his race.
High Fly was chasing much faster fractions and set what appears to be a fairly quick pace himself even though he was off it. Vicarage and Mighty Mecke, who were also fairly close to that pace while wide, dropped back pretty badly. It is possible that both HF and BBB ran even better than it looks on paper.
For me the question mark is whether he wants 10F.
IMO, Zito is going to get another big effort from Sun King. Last out was a just walk in the park against garbage cans. Zito is loaded!
Post Edited (04-04-05 09:50)
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The pace was definitely quick, especially compared to the other two routes on the card that were all run within 46/100s of each other on final time. I think we\'ve seen our first legit horse step up and stake a claim to the roses, along with possibly the Dubai horse. No reason to think the other Zito can turn the tables unless the pace is extremely hot on Derby Day.
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Interestingly, Beyer doesn\'t have High Fly\'s Florida Derby that fast (102). Brisnet has it as the fastest Derby prep thus far (108).
People keep questioning High Fly\'s stamina, but nobody has run by him late. Noble Causeway didn\'t make up any significant ground late on Saturday (half a length in the last furlong) and HF was under a hand ride when Bandini made finally started to close ground in the Fountain of Youth.
Sun King, on the other hand, had horses run by him in the stretch in his last couple of races as a 2yo.
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Do Brisnet and Beyer use the same exact scale?
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FWIW... High Fly received a new top Beyer of 102 for the Fla. Derby.
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Five weeks rest is no good. Nobody\'s ever gotten anywhere with it. I\'d be happy to have High Fly in the futures at 30-1, but on Derby day at 4-1 or so....I doubt I\'ll take it.
Moving right along...
Class wrote -- \"High Fly was chasing much faster fractions and set what appears to be a fairly quick pace himself even though he was off it. Vicarage and Mighty Mecke, who were also fairly close to that pace while wide, dropped back pretty badly. It is possible that both HF and BBB ran even better than it looks on paper.\"
The first sentence really says it all. Set \"what appears\" to be a fairly quick pace? Was is quick or not? \"Even though he was off it?\" Right, I mean how could he \"set what appeared to be a fairly quick pace\" if he wasn\'t on the lead (which he wasn\'t)? WHAT ARE YOU TALKING ABOUT? And what does \"fairly quick\" mean? How fast is that? Greater minds will have to figure out what this means. I just have no idea what you\'re talking about.
Absolute gibberish. \"Appears to be.\" \"Fairly close.\" \"It is possible...\" You say NOTHING and you still have to qualify every single sentence. I CHALLENGE you to write a clear sentence in English. I mean ONE clear sentence! If anything could destroy my appreciation for horse racing it\'s reading your posts. Give it a rest for God\'s sake!
I saw the race. It looked like High Fly won. It looked about the same \"on paper\" when I read about it on Sunday.
HP
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HP,
I\'m fairly certain no serious Derby Prep has been run 5 weeks before the Derby before. I remember Stehpen Got Even trying to go to the Derby from the Beam (turfway race), but I didn\'t think he was a true contender anyway. We are in unchartered territory here. Further, how many three year olds have come to the Derby with 3 1 1/8 mile races in their last three starts as a 3yo? I\'m not saying 4-1 is any bargain, just seems to dismiss him on the 5 week theory is a stretch.
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classhandicapper wrote:
> Do Brisnet and Beyer use the same exact scale?
No, generally Bris is faster, until you get into the grade 1 classic type horses, the highest Bris I remember was 118.
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CH,
They (BRIS, Beyer) do not use the same scale at all. I have a pretty decent formula to put them on the same scale. The BRIS figure would equate to around a 112 Beyer.
At 100 they are similar, then the farther away the BRIS number moves, the Beyer number moves even farther.
Post Edited (04-04-05 11:15)
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HP,
The fractions of the Florida Derby were signficantly faster than the 2 other routes that day that ended in a similar final time.
Even though HF did not \"set the pace\" in the traditional sense of the phrase, he \"ran fractions\" (his own pace) that were still faster than the other routes that day because he wasn\'t far off BBB.
I have yet to see a set of actual pace figures for the day, but if beyerguy says that the numeric pace figures confirm my initial impression, I believe him because I know he makes them for Florida, I know he is competent, and I know he has a sincere interest in discussing the issue and learning. He\'s not here to try to discredit me with BS.
So when we say he is better than he looks on paper, what we mean is that had he run slightly slower fractions, he would have run a faster final time and beaten those horses by more.
Post Edited (04-04-05 11:25)
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HP,
\"Five weeks rest is no good. Nobody\'s ever gotten anywhere with it.\"
I disagree. Five weeks rest will prove out to be ideal in the upcoming years if Gulfstream leaves the Florida Derby at this new date. Nobody\'s gotten anywhere with it because there has never been a suitable prep five weeks out.
I agree with every other word you wrote. Absolute gibberish is right.
Frank
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I haven\'t sat down and done the actual figures yet, but I have done enough to know that if I give a speed figure similar to Beyer\'s, 102, the pace figure to the 6f mark will be 119 or so. That\'s pretty quick. It\'s also not to hard to believe if you watch the cavalry charge into the first turn again. The \"extended\" runup has done nothing to alleviate the built in bias against outside posts for 1 1/8 mile races at GP. 3 or 4 horses were done before they had travelled a furlong in my opinion.
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Class -
Beyer and Brisnet use different scales. For example, Beyer assigns more points per length at 9 furlongs. I think the two scales cross at about 100, but I\'ve never tried to figure it out with any precision. I don\'t use Beyer\'s figures any more.
When I said that Beyer didn\'t have the race \"that fast,\" I meant that he has other Derby preps faster (the Lousiana Derby and San Felipe for instance). In general, Brisnet seems to think more of the Gulfstream Derby preps than Beyer.
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Beyer,
Thank you. Our visual impressions are similar and the fractions speak for themselves.
\"I haven\'t sat down and done the actual figures yet, but I have done enough to know that if I give a speed figure similar to Beyer\'s, 102, the pace figure to the 6f mark will be 119 or so. That\'s pretty quick. It\'s also not to hard to believe if you watch the cavalry charge into the first turn again. The \"extended\" runup has done nothing to alleviate the built in bias against outside posts for 1 1/8 mile races at GP. 3 or 4 horses were done before they had travelled a furlong in my opinion\".
Post Edited (04-04-05 13:22)
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Silver Charm said no one has run a 1 1/8 faster. Not true - Rockport Harbor did it as a 2 YEAR OLD.
Several of you compare this horse favorably to Eurosilver, and rightly so. BUT, who the hell is Eurosilver. Granted he\'s an older colt but he\'s yet to prove he\'s of the first rank.
To me, the only thing impressive about High Fly is, he survived that fast pace. What did he beat?
When they get to the 1/8 pole at CD on May 7 I think HighFly will be looking for a taxicab.
Maybe Rockport Harbor is out of the picture or, in the picture when he should be out. This started out looking like a good bunch of 3yos but J. Brown\'s field bet is looking better all the time.
I have a friend who has Lost In The Fog & Rockport Harbor in the second pool at what he thought were good odds. These horses are so fragile maybe everything but the field is an underlay in futures.
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Bally Ache wrote:
When they get to the 1/8 pole at CD on May 7 I think HighFly
will be looking for a taxicab.
If he\'s in front at the 1/8 pole, I\'d take my chances. Very, very few horses get passed when in front at the 1/8 pole of the Run for the Roses!
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HP
the pace scenerio is finalized after comparing some or all the things that brown has to incorporate for our #.we dont ask jerry to hurry give me the bottom line.
pace is a race within THE RACE.surely an animal can be affected by high early speed or horse & jock can remove themselves from chasing.its simple ...a toorrid pace ,some gun,some stay within their style.
find a hoss that ran fast early and finshes fast....you got an edge!
many great pace guys on net...if you are falling asleep to this defense of c.h. than maybe you should step back and find another dog to kick...although he does ramble...the guy has plenty good stuff to say...now if we could only get readers digest to condense his thoughts PARTYpokerON
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david,
\"now if we could only get readers digest to condense his thoughts\"
ROTFLOL.
Thanks.
It\'s tough being me.
If I use phrases like \"IMO\", \"I think\", \"could be\" etc... I get trashed for not having firm convictions and wind up wasting time explaining myself.
If I state things as if they are fact I get trashed for having theories I can\'t prove and wind up wasting time explaining myself.
Most of the time my point is that it\'s OK to think in grey terms in a game as complex as this where no one has the answers in black and white and everyone is thinking differently when making their figures.
Post Edited (04-04-05 12:01)
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I can\'t think of ONE horse that\'s run well off this much rest in the Derby. I\'ll stick to my guns. At 4-1, let him prove me wrong. At 8-1 it might be another story...
\"The fractions of the Florida Derby were signficantly faster than the 2 other routes that day that ended in a similar final time.\"
\"So when we say he is better than he looks on paper, what we mean is that had he run slightly slower fractions, he would have run a faster final time and beaten those horses by more.\"
Who\'s \"we?\" Stand on your own two feet, please. You just have no way of knowing this is true. No way! Think about what you\'re saying. He could\'ve run a \"faster final time\" by running \"slightly slower fractions?\" How could he do that? The more I get into this with you the more I realize that you just don\'t know what you\'re talking about.
If he would\'ve run slightly slower fractions, he would\'ve had more work to do in the stretch to catch up, PERIOD. Somewhere in here, you probably mean to say something about how the ACTUAL pacesetters ran (i.e., if they had run slower early), but I DON\'T HAVE THE REST OF MY LIFE TO FIGURE THIS OUT.
This will do it for posting for awhile. Enjoy!
Davidrex, OF COURSE pace makes the race. There is no insight whatsoever into this phenomenon in any of CH\'s posts. Do YOU believe horse\'s can run FASTER final times by running SLOWER fractions? Come on. It\'s totally ridiculous.
HP
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Answer: Deputy Rummy, Speedwell Beau, Salty Punch, Isle of Mirth, Risky Trick, Mr. Spock, Two Down Automatic, Pro Prado, Purge, Borrego?
Question: Who were the place & show horses behind Smarty Jones entering the Ky. Derby?
Not very impressive... but it doesn\'t mean a thing. High Fly wins, he\'s sound and dead fit, and can be placed in a perfect position in a race. What is the evidence for not wanting 10f? Gut feeling?
I believe HF\'s pattern is 2, 4, 1\", 1\", 3\", then Florida Derby. Run another 1\" saving ground in the Derby and dare someone to run a 0.
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HP wrote:
\"He could\'ve run a \"faster final time\" by
running \"slightly slower fractions?\" How could he do that?
The more I get into this with you the more I realize that you
just don\'t know what you\'re talking about.\"
OK HP, of course, I don\'t know what kind of shape you are in. I\'m in OK shape for a soon to be 38 year old guy. I can run 2 miles running 1:30 1/4s to finish in 12 minutes.
I can also run under 1:00 for 1/4 pretty easily if that\'s all I\'m going to run. However, if I run that 1:00 for the first lap, there is no way I will run a faster than that 12:00 for the 2 miles, and almost certain I will run slower, and quite a bit slower. And guess what, it has nothing to do with whether I\'m running in front of the pack or behind the pack, or even in the middle.
Of course, I\'m not a horse, and this example is pretty extreme. But, it holds in horse racing as well. You just have to know what \"extreme\" is as far as the pace goes.
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HP, again:
\"Do YOU believe horse\'s can run FASTER final times by running SLOWER fractions? Come on. It\'s totally ridiculous.\"
Ridiculous? Hardly. The fastest way to get around the track is at an even pace from start to finish. The slower you go, the faster time you will finish in, to a point. You can\'t go too slow, or you could never make the time up later. It\'s really common sense, and hardly ridiculous.
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\"Ridiculous? Hardly. The fastest way to get around the track is at an even pace from start to finish. The slower you go, the faster time you will finish in, to a point. You can\'t go too slow, or you could never make the time up later. It\'s really common sense, and hardly ridiculous.\"
I could take this apart, but I\'m tired. \"The slower you go, the faster time you will finish in...\" You may be running faster at the end if you ran slow early, but your FINAL time would be impacted by your slow early effort. \"...to a point.\" While YOU figure out where this point is, I will pursue other things that are actually of use on Earth...
Really, as I read it over again...ridiculous. I think you guys are TRYING to say something that makes some amount of sense, but put together, you\'re not getting there. If this is the state of pace handicapping, you guys can have it.
\"I can also run under 1:00 for 1/4 pretty easily if that\'s all I\'m going to run. However, if I run that 1:00 for the first lap, there is no way I will run a faster than that 12:00 for the 2 miles, and almost certain I will run slower, and quite a bit slower.\"
Could be true under absolutely static conditions. Now apply this to a 3yo racehorse who is really supposed to be GETTING BETTER every time out. It\'s meaningless. Just a completely useless example that illustrates absolutely nothing. Really. It may not even be true. If you ran really fast early and got a break after that you might beat the 12:00 for the two miles. It\'s a definite possibility.
\"And guess what, it has nothing to do with whether I\'m running in front of the pack or behind the pack, or even in the middle.\"
We agree. I quit.
HP
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there are times when horses go too fast early and call it quits. occasionally a horse will run a :21 first quarter and stop. given a slower first quarter, the horse may not have stopped. there are times when horses run faster final times by running slower fractions.
Post Edited (04-04-05 13:41)
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Michael,
What happened, I thought we were friends?
Tell you what, give one example and PROVE IT. PROVE to me that the horse ran a faster final time by running slower fractions...
I can\'t imagine an avenue LESS likely to lead to handicapping profits... Can\'t we switch back to talking about jockeys again? You had some good ones there...
HP
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hahah, still friends. it happens, you know it, jerry knows it, we all know it. point well taken about profits though. i don\'t read a lot of successful PRE RACE posts that focus on pace.
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Unless he gets Post\'s 18-20 then its a different race for High Fly.
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tony,
watch JD\'s ride on grindstone. given HF\'s tactical speed, bailey will work out the trip. it\'s the last eighth, rather than the post i worry about.
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Michael,
There is actually an excellent demonstration of this phenomenon and it happened in the 1973 Kentucky Derby. It\'s INCREDIBLY rare, but yes, it DOES happen. It just doesn\'t happen often enough to be used in this debate. The people throwing these examples around have no idea how rare it really is!
Good luck.
HP
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HP,
Noone ever said this is the be all and end all of handicapping. I agree with the boss, most races pace is a minimal or non existent factor. There is one thing I would point out however, lots of your competition believes these things, so even if you don\'t buy it, it might help you at the windows to understand why certain horses are being bet.
Your \"Prove It\" thing is not really appropriate here on this board. I could post many examples , but this board is about final time measured as accurately as humanly possible, which I have no doubt that it is. Most times, this is the answer. Sometimes, it is not.
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ok hp, your big letters are scaring me away. we disagree on the probability of the event happening. fair enough.....BTW, nice hit on the TP race back there.
Post Edited (04-04-05 14:06)
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I just don\'t see how you can assume people are so wrong or don\'t know anything because you don\'t agree. If it was as rare as you seem to think, I would have moved on to a different method, or I\'d be broke. I haven\'t moved, and I\'m far from broke. I\'ll leave it at that.
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Beyerguy,
As CH as pointed out, Jerry is the arbiter of this board. You win at the track with your slow fractions faster final times analysis? Great. \"Prove it\" stands until JB takes it down.
I addressed \"prove it\" to Michael, but feel free to post all your examples and illustrations of how you\'ve made money with this. Why isn\'t it appropriate? Why are you withholding this info? I would really like to know.
I don\'t assume anything. I read what\'s posted and I respond. And just because I don\'t agree doesn\'t mean the I think the other person is wrong. Show me how it works and prove that a horse ran a faster final time BECAUSE of slower fractions, and furthermore, that\'s why YOU made money.
Sorry to challenge these assumptions.
Michael,
Thanks. This week was a bust. Feast or famine. I hate Gulfstream. I hope the Derby doesn\'t turn out as chalky as it looks today...
HP
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HP,
Smarty Jones was 4.5 lengths faster than High Fly and went off at 4-1 only because Cella hedged his Bonus bet at Oaklawn. high Fly will be 7-1 or 8-1. He may actually be about 12-1 because plenty of people such as yourself will say that a horse with excellant tactical speed, a solid mile and one eighth bottom and Jerry Bailey riding cannot win because he is coming in on Five Weeks Rest.
>I believe HF\'s pattern is 2, 4, 1\", 1\", 3\", then Florida Derby. Run another 1\" saving ground in the Derby and dare someone to run a 0.
ezgoer89,
and to think you will be getting 12 or maybe 15-1 on this horse
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HP,
It\'s not appropriate because it does not deal with TG numbers. I can\'t go back in history and see what so and so ran for a TG figure, I can only do that with my own.
I\'ll give a quick example, Azeri\'s 2004 campaign, since I have the TG numbers handy. She returned at Oaklawn earning a Beyer style speed figure of 116. I don\'t know if that\'s the actual Beyer, but it is the same scale. Her pace number was 103.
She didn\'t go two turns again until Saratoga, where she went 107 pace, 109 final. Faster pace = slower race. Yes, she was wider, but that also means she was running a faster early than that 107 gives credit for.
She next was ran into submission, the Storm Flag Flying race, and I gave her a pace-speed combo of 113-96.
Her final pre BC race was the Spinster at Kee, where she went 98-100 in what was essientally a workout, and she was wide the whole way. Taking ground into account (which I don\'t do normally, not because I don\'t want to, but because it isn\'t possible for me) would have put this race right around the 107-109 she got at Saratoga.
So, we have:
103-116 (TG -1.5)
107-109 (TG -1.5)
113-96 (TG 2 hot pace designation)
98-100 (TG -1.5)
Breeder\'s Cup, Azeri got a TG 1.5, which I would attribute to having to run faster early than she is comfortable with keeping up with the boys, even though she wasn\'t up front.
This is not rare, especially with top class horses. These numbers take weight into account, but not ground as I\'ve said.
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beyerguy,
\"I agree with the boss, most races pace is a minimal or non existent factor.\"
One comment and I am out of here.
I happen to agree with the above also and know that you appreciate the following. It\'s just a note for anyone that cares.
It\'s important to remember that within the same race, horses not only have different styles, but they also have different abilities. So if one horse cuts a fast pace and runs back to his number, that does not mean the horse that was up there dueling with him will also run back to his number or that the pace had no impact.
Expressed numerically:
If horse \"A\" is a 110 horse, he can run a
110 pace and still run a 110 final time.
If horse \"B\" is a 100 horse and runs a 110 pace inside the same race, his 100 speed figure will probably drop into the 90s.
If you don\'t quite understand this, you may not appreciate that the pace is impacting the race even if it didn\'t impact the winner\'s final time.
Post Edited (04-04-05 17:21)
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Has it been firmly established that \"jd\",as you guys call him, will ride High Fly at CD? I\'m sure he\'ll have a mount next Sat. in the Wood. Probably a mount at Oak or Kee the following week & maybe one at Kee the week after that.
What will you say if Bailey doesn\'t even ride the horse? Nothing, because you\'ll have forgotten these comments and moved on to some other horse du jour.
The race that everyone cares about, even those who don\'t know a furlong from a fetlock, is still five weeks away.
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just finished reading s.c.\'s opening on 5 weeks,how and where did we end up so off target and embittered about pace? together we move mutuels divided we just plain bicker.
since our leader leans toward being abrasive ...well theres just no call for others on this board to follow suit
lets make a conserted effort to enlighten the conversation rather than needlessly attack one another[or defend]
PARTYpokerON
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David-- if you read the first 5 posts on that string in order I think it will be pretty clear how it became a discussion of pace.
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some time ago a rookie inquired about tg symbols.many good answers followed,but one item stuck in my throat.
many moons ago i had the opportunity to compare both products by simply picking them up on weekends and transporting them to pimlico.
all kinds of comparisons were thought up [not by me!] but the one symbol that made me a true believer was the \"x\" that browns inserted in a very limited fashion.
uncanny how strong that x was[is]and with that in hand so many other intangibles could be combined w/either faith in the product or faith in the man being such a stickler for detail
no i wouldnt want brown to marry my daughter,but a good defense lawyer?!!!
PARTYpokerON
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dividrex,
\"lets make a conserted effort to enlighten the conversation rather than needlessly attack one another\"
I am all for enlightenment and never attack anyone if I disagree with them (even in the face of constant attack on me).
I just disagree. Say what I think, and explain why.
If you really want a broader and balanced discussion, we need to move it somewhere else. As much as I believe that most of what I have to say is very complementary to using JB\'s product effectively, it\'s his forum and he obviously doesn\'t appreciate me here or want ideas outside his narrow framework discussed here as a primary topic.
Personally, I don\'t get it. People are obviously interested. Articles in the DRF refer to these issues daily and virtually all the popular handicapping books have chapters on this stuff or are fully devoted to them. I would think a discussion of how to incorporate high quality speed figures into more standard handicapping ideas would be an attractive way to bring more players into the fold.
I\'ll be on CJ\'s new board if you are looking for me.
Post Edited (04-04-05 19:49)
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David, I agree your daughter should marry a good defense lawyer.
I\'m trying not to get upset about your getting a free look at the sheets in Maryland, and wondering how many others did (do).
Nice casting.
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you lie down w/ cookie...you wake up w/crumbs
never bothered to send any to pim. and i swear if i arived at laurel when track opened...he was always sold out by one annonymus player who bought ten sets at a time.claimed your guys only sent him the dreg trax.
Yes i called and was told that cookie wasnt sending much back but unsold data.
cookie monster
PARTYpokerON
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jerry,
didnt mean that my daughter should marry good defense lawyer....rather IF i was ever in need of one,someone of your ilk would be perfect.
A REAL pit bull that hates to lose....and after your last blurb i just may need one....wish my daughter had married
the pushy attorney
PARTYpokerON
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David-- I knew what you meant.
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Please let me re-post this so people do not get confused with this Board being a Pace Figures Board or another version of Ann Landers.
Lots will be discussed over the next Five Weeks about horses coming into the Derby off a slightly longer than normal layoff. Can they still win the race??
Being someone who was somewhat of a skeptic regarding High Fly I have to say after yesterday he may in the drivers seat. He will be very rested, fresh off the five weeks and has already run a mile once and a mile and an eighth THREE TIMES. Nobody else will go into Derby with that kind of bottom.
His solid tactical speed will put him wherever he wants to sit and the extra time going in gives the trainer the opportunity to do whatever he wants with him. Speed drills, stamina drills, light work, heavy work you name it.
I am not saying this is my selection but High Fly has already done what the others have yet to do. And yet when those others do it one week from now, experts will try and tell you they can win the Derby but High Fly can not.
Believe what you want.
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SC,
All those positives you mention can be compromised if he leaves from posts 1 or 18-20 (Jerry Bailey included). What about High Limit and his speed? Will be an interesting race for sure. This weekend will clear the picture up a little more.
Still think the closing filly has to be considered the way the race sets up.
What a great Game this is turing out to be.
Go Carolina.!!
NC Tony
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We did it!!!
Nothing could be finer than to be in Carolina...In my mind IM going to CarolinaCarolina on my mind ....et al
Now for a winning weekend at Keeneland!!!!
Anyone else going?
NC Tony
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Tony it was a great game and it was your year. Good for Roy.
Bailey will be riding this horse Derby Day, post 1 or 20. He has nothing better and will not between now and then. Zito will have his work cut out for himself, keeping this horse sharp but he has done it before.
By no means am I saying that High Fly is my Derby Day selection. But anyone who tells you he can\'t win because he comes in off five weeks rest is to be ignored.
The last time a trainer came into the Derby (long ways to go still) with this strong of a hand was when D Wayne Lukas ran FIVE HORSES. The local newspaper ran a front page Derby Day story calling him crazy, obsessed with the race and bad for the Derby. Three of the five became Grade One winners at a Mile and Quarter or longer (Derby, Belmont and Strub)another won the Met Mile as a 3YO (was used to siphon Unbridled Song along Derby Day)and the fifth ran third in the Derby.
Lukas never got an apology. Zito deserves better when he shows up.
Lets hope he gets it.
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SC
I love Zito. I had Birdstone on Belmont and Travers day. (Dummy me ad Smarty on top in Supers only but was all over the exacta box that day and tri) Was all over him at Keeneland last year with Cliffs Edge (lost in Fla Derby would have scored big if he was second in that one). Had tapit-CE- Smarty National Pic 3 last year for 395 for $20 straight, so Im a Zito Guy. (Zito on the undercard Belmont day last year). I think more highly of this horse than before and do not think 5 weeks compromises this horse at all,especially with more than one 9F races underneath him. He will have to concern himself with Post position draw and with Consolidator,High Limit Pace (BBB if he even tries the derby). He will have Bailey - the best Jockey to position and rate a horse, a great trainer in Zito.
None the less, I bet Sweet Catomine in the Derby Futures. I am anxiously watching this weekends races to see if she really belongs or not. I based my selection on what I saw as extroidanary strong and powerful moves, good TG Figs, and up till pool 1 a weak 3 yo male crop. High Fly and High Limit seem to both be more than capable as well at this point. I like her style for this years field so far. This weekend will clear the picture quite a bit. JB even says you really should wait till May to formulate final decision due to preps and post position(ie ground loss potential). Nows the time to pair down the contenders from the pretenders.
One last thing- Isn\'t it Ironic that both major male contenders have the word HIGH in the name in a year of drug scandals, shakes et al. Probably just a strange coincedence.
NC Tony
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Beyerguy wrote,
\"She didn\'t go two turns again until Saratoga, where she went 107 pace, 109 final. Faster pace = slower race. Yes, she was wider, but that also means she was running a faster early than that 107 gives credit for.\"
\"So, we have:
103-116 (TG -1.5)
107-109 (TG -1.5)
113-96 (TG 2 hot pace designation)
98-100 (TG -1.5)\"
So on TG, she wasn\'t faster! She paired. You are using other figures to demonstrate your point, since the TG figures...demonstrate otherwise.
You wrote,
what I said is...\"not appropriate because it does not deal with TG numbers.\"
That would apply to 99% of what YOU post. You haven\'t proved anything, except that you can selectively look at data to make your point and leave out the stuff that doesn\'t, like TG!
HP
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OK, lets keep it on TG terms. When she went too fast at Saratoga, she ran much slower, a 2. Thus, when she runs slower early, she finishes in faster time.
TG designates this with a h_pace rating, which is great. They obviously believe extreme paces can affect final time. TG chooses not to measure this factor. That is fine too. It doesn\'t mean it can\'t be done.
There is a range where the final time will stay pretty consistent, and it is not a small range either. But, once you get outside that range, on either side, the final time is going to slow down. If the horses go too fast early, they will decelerate at a much higher rate late. If they go way too slow early, they can\'t possibly run fast enough at the end to compensate. This is very common in turf routes as I\'m sure TG has discovered, but it does occasionally happen on dirt as well.