Ask The Experts
General Category => Ask the Experts => Topic started by: Silver Charm on April 09, 2005, 01:03:04 PM
-
Two maidens were just head bobbing in the third today in 108 and 3/5.
Anyone think they will NOT be slowing the track down as the day goes along??
We will see.
-
After the Carter the answer is
NO
-
AQU at least 1/5 second faster than par today. Think Len will notice?
-
Boxcar,
Two strong services have the track 120+ or 6+ lengths faster than par w/wind factored in down the backside.We\'ll wait to see what TG comes with up.
-
Negative 10
-
I was at the Big A today and races 1 and 2 the wind was west to east and races 3-10 completely changes to be east to west. (or into the wind down the stretch!!! The flags were blowing straight out...strong!
-
So what you are saying is if Bellamy Road had not been running into the wind down the strech he would have won by twenty plus.
You see what the wind did to Going Wild, he stopped so badly he was almost blown over backwards.
I would be totally shocked if someone can find me a horse who has EVER come into the Derby off two individual wins by 15 and 17 1/2 lengths.
Survivalist was an improving type who came into the Wood off paired 4\'s and was beaten by 17 1/2. Galloping Grocer came in off paired 4\'s and was beaten by 26 lengths. I do not envy any of the high profile Speed Figure Boys because there is no getting around what this horse ran today.
Bellamy Road is now the Derby favorite and will go off at odds of 4-1 or less.
Five weeks rest, two preps, three preps they all seem so meaningless now. The Bounce Theory is now the topic of the next month.
Brown, Beyer, Friedman, you guys are in the Hotseat like never before.
Speaking of hotseats I heard today Victoria Gotti is coming to the Derby. First the Boss now the Mob.
-
Beyer has given a 119. I\'m saying he is at least 5 points too high.
-
How five points high?
Bellamy Road ran 29 Beyer points faster than Survivalist (92, 93 last two) and 30 points faster than a ground-saving Scrappy T (93, 98). As you move on down through the field it makes even less sense your way--it\'d be easier to argue the fig is a bit low.
-
Agreed Captain.
This race is way to high profile for him to be able to bail out like he did last year on Smarty Jones in the Rebel.
-
beyerguy,
Did you make a pace figure for the race?
My quick guess was somewhere between 119-121 for a final time figure, but I didn\'t look at the times/figures for the other races. That was just a quick guess based on the winning margin vs. the figs Beyer gave them last time.
I can\'t wait to see the TG and Sheet figures.
Time to change the scale? :-)
I can\'t recall a faster Derby prep than this one, but before we coronate him let\'s remember that this was hardly a high quality field, he made a clear lead, front runners were holding well today (until of course all the jocks realized it and started gunning 43s). He\'ll also have to duplicate this performance (no easy task for any horse) and negotiate 10F against a field that\'s likely to contain at least one other horse that will keep him honest early. There\'s no way to not be impressed, but I can\'t see conceding the Derby because of 1 super fast race under very favorable conditions.
Post Edited (04-10-05 11:13)
-
Silver Charm wrote:
\"You see what the wind did to Going Wild, he stopped so badly he was almost blown over backwards.\"
That was funny, LOL
-
Captain,
I see no reason whatsover to think those horses (Scrappy T, Survivalist) paired up their last efforts. For one, the Wood was a furlong longer and another turn too. They were totally outclassed and running on fumes through the stretch.
CH,
I have the pace figure only slightly higher than the speed figure, but even that would be exceptionally fast for Scrappy and everyone else in the race not named Bellamy Road.
The Wood certainly makes you wonder what \"The Mad Genius\" is thinking about today! Wonder what Zito could have done with Tapit, LOL!
-
Beyerguy,
1. According to the TG methodology, there is no such thing as \"outclassed\"(class doesn\'t exist, remember)
2. With 123LBS and losing some ground, I suspect Survivalist did pair his 4.
3. Given the Tie Back Method( lots of holes there) Bellamy Road ran app a Minus -13.
Beyer had him improving app 12-14 lengths.
Can\'t wait to hear this story debated.
-
beyerguy,
Makes sense.
These super dominant wins are sometimes tough to interpret. Sometimes you can\'t tell if the winner improved by a lot, the rest of the field ran sub par and that\'s what made the winner win by so many lengths, the pace set by the winner bottomed out the rest of the field and caused them to run a lot slower, or some combination of the above.
It would have helped if they carded another 1 or 2 nine furlong races to use for comparison.
There\'s probably going to be a lot of different opinions depending on the predisposition of the handicapper.
-
miff,
When Secretariat won the Belmont, did the others run their same numbers? Horses that try to keep up with superior horses and are unable usually falter, that\'s all I was saying.
I\'ll be curious to see the TG number, because I\'d have a lot more faith in it given only two routes were run on the card, and the first was a rarely run 10f race for not very good horses. Add in the wind, and I think TG has a lot better chance to nail it than Beyer does.
-
>Beyer had him improving app 12-14 lengths
Off what his previous figure and if that one was wrong..... then maybe the horse only improved half that much or less.
You think my previous reference to a negative 10 was a joke. Even Friedman is probably tossing and turning over this one.
This may be the most important figure ever given out by the SPEED BOYS. The entire Derby favoritism has just been TILTED to this horse after yesterday.
With the Steinbrenner and Yankee connection (Torre has the Oaks favorite) the Derby may have just scored a big-time marketing coop.
Do FREAKS bounce and if so when???
-
Beyerguy,
I agree with you,regarding horses being \"bottomed out\"when chasing a superior rival and they should get a \"pass\".By the same token, Survivalist did not chase and layed back and made a run. I think he ran about a pair, IMO.
If thats the case then BR ran the fastest race ever by TG#\'s if they use their normal tie back method.
-
Silver,
TG and Beyer had the previous effort fairly close.Regarding your 10 lenghts, the Variant geek heads at the track(they do good work) had the sprints, after the second race, +205(10lenghts plus) and the routes +185(9+lengths)
It will be intersting to see the TG, Rags, Equiform and Equibase figs to see how they each handle the race and the winner.
-
Thanks miff.
That is why they make the big bucks.
-
beyerguy,
\"Horses that try to keep up with superior horses and are unable usually falter, that\'s all I was saying.\"
I agree 100%.
Miff, i think you made a good point about Survivalist. I feel similarly.
I think Survivalist, wind, and no other 9F race to compare it to is what makes this figure so interesting.
The fact of the matter is that I\'m not going to pay all that much attention to this figure anyway. To me the horse ran super, but it was under favorable conditions. Between the complexities of getting the figure perfect to begin with, plus the conditions it was earned under, I think it\'s enough to know it was a terrific performance, but one that will be extremely difficult to duplicate first Saturday in May. If they make him a solid favorite off this figure, I\'m going to bet against him.
Post Edited (04-10-05 13:30)
-
miff,
Your calculation is a little off. If Survivalist ran another 4, then Bellamy Road\'s figure would be in the minus 4 to minus 5 range. That would still make him the world\'s fastest ever April 3YO in the history of the world. He is the greatest of all time. Sure.
Another thing. Why is no one crowing about scoring out on Buzzards Bay? expect the clown I mean. Check the redboard room, then check the odds and tell me how he wasn\'t a logical key.
Frank
-
Frank,
I did not want to give the impression that I made a precise calculation for BR fig.I did a quick ballpark thing and like I said, the pro fig makers will have a tough time with this race.
Regarding Buzzards Bay, he was picking up 5 lbs, drew outside and 3 runners inside of him who were faster,SC substantially faster going in.Did you mean key him for a few bucks. I can\'t imagine any seriuous better stepping out on that one.
-
miff,
I agree that the Wood will be a very tough race for the figure makers. Either BR freaked big time or a bunch of horses X\'ed at the same time.
As for the SA Derby, I disagree with your comments. If you had a negative opinion of SC\'s chances of running close to her top then I believe BB at 30-1 was a very logical key. Not the most likely winner but at 30-1 you can\'t have everything. The two other faster horses you refer to inside of BB, one was Giacomo who was a quarter point faster at 7/2 and the other was Don\'t Get Mad whose top of 4 was at 7F and was 7-1. At his only try at 2 turns DGM ran a half point slower than BB. The weight was inconsequential. All the contenders were picking up weight except for the filly and all were carrying 122. BB had to overcome the post but he seemed to have enough tactical speed to secure a reasonable trip with the long run down the stretch to the first turn. He also had a very good pattern with very good spacing with a very good trainer that had won the last two SA Derbies. And did I forget to mention 30-1.
And I do know of two serious players, TG users, that made serious wagers on the horse.
Frank
-
Why isn\'t Bellamy Road hosed because he only has had two preps going into the Derby? I never cared for this angle, but where are all the guys who say the evidence is overwhelming that a horse coming into the Derby with preparation like this has no chance no matter how fast he is? Now depending what kind of number this guy ran, I might be afraid that he would bounce in the Derby anyway, but, I can tell you one thing, the alleged lack of preparation is not going to be this guy\'s problem if he fails.
-
Zito is loaded.
Aqueduct was wicked.
That was a very impressive looking race for Bellemany Road but he had lots his own way and the track was very kind to that pace. Theres a ton of speed in the Derby this year by my reckoning. At least in projecting the field.
Its getting very interesting.
-
I had a small win bet on BB, but my key was Wilco. I was hoping Dettori could work out a trip but he was 4-5 wide all the way around from the outside post. Miff you\'re right, a few were faster inside of him but @ 30-1 he was worth a least some type of win bet. The only 1 substantially faster was the filly and at 4-5 with that pattern she was a play against IMHO. What killed me was the 6 splitting BB and Wilco. Had a nice exacta box with those 2, ouch.
Anybody read about the filly bleeding in her last work??
-
Frank/P-Dub
I read about a shoe SC lost in her stall during the week but they were protecting it and Canani said it was a ZERO factor.
Great Pick on the winner, I couldn\'t have bet him if he was 50-1.I don\'t get the relevance of Mullins having won the two previous two SA Derbys, so what,unless you mean he uses the \"good stuff\" for the SA Derby. Now that\'s an angle.
-
Miff,
I respect your opinion on lots of topics on this board, but why were you so against BB yesterday?? Can you tell which horses you liked better?? I admit he wasn\'t the most likely winner, but I felt he was clearly competitive once you got past SC\'s big number. He was within 1 pt (or less) of the other contenders.
-
P Dub,
I looked at BB because of Mullins.I thought that at best he would lose ground, maybe improve and run a bit better fig but not enough to contend seriously with the horses in post 1,2 and 3 who would surely save ground.I basically made SW a single for reasons I posted earlier. I was wrong.
-
Buzzards Bay had an explosive line. Small 1 pt top and only 2.5pts slower than the filly. At 30-1 a must use, but I didn\'t have him. Using old fashioned analysis woulda got this one. There\'s always next week.....lol