Ask The Experts
General Category => Ask the Experts => Topic started by: Chuckles_the_Clown2 on April 10, 2005, 09:46:40 PM
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Well it was certainly fast.
3YO,MSW:22.88, 46.06, 57.92, 1:10.73
4^,NW2X:23.86, 46.88, 1:11.39, 1:35.71
3YO,MSW:22.07, 45.07, 56.68, 1:08.95
4^,SAlw:24.08, 48.13, 1:12.64, 1:38.33, 2:04.49
3YO,MSW:21.89, 45.14, 57.35, 1:10.37
3YO,150K:22.62, 45.39, 1:08.80, 1:21.33
4^,NW1X:21.54, 43.84, 1:08.47, 1:22.01
3^,350K:21.59, 43.30, 1:07.48, 1:20.46
3YO,750K:23.13, 46.08, 1:09.84, 1:34.41, 1:47.16
4^,SNW1X:22.73, 45.47, 1:10.51, 1:37.50
The third race was very quick and it looks to have gotten quicker by the sixth race. The eighth certainly seemed off the chart. Those horses are good, but not that good.
The fourth and tenth races are mot easy to draw conclusions from. The former was a 10 mark starter allowance and nursing the distance had to be an issue with those animals. The latter for state bred animals and they look to have collapsed late. Still they ran fast early.
Theres two ways to look at the Wood. In either case Bellamy Road ran fast. In the first scenario you would say that it looks like he caught a very fast track. Going Wild couldn\'t have been right. Survivalist didn\'t figure to want longer ground and Scrappy T may have needed a race.
In the other scenario Bellamy ran Going Wild into the ground. Scrappy T though game had his heart chewed out and gave up second late to a horse that improving clunked up and Galloping Grocer ran his same race proving himself to be distance challenged.
Theres no doubt Bellamy is good. Hes run well in all his starts save one. Its interesting that the horse that beat him in the race he lost is Consolidator and that when headed Bellamy apparently chucked it in.
This horse is fast. I\'ve heard TGraph is leaning to Neg 4 and thats in the first scenario. Though fast, this horse was not seriously challenged in the Wood. He walked and he didn\'t walk because he ran a monster pace effort. Theres some very quick horses lining up for the Derby and I think every trainer out there now realizes this horse has to be engaged.
I dont think this is a Smarty Jones. At least the Pre Belmont Smarty. He\'s good, but he\'s got a pretty good achilles heel but they\'ll need to expose it.
Post Edited (04-10-05 22:52)
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CTC,
\"In the other scenario Bellamy ran Going Wild into the ground.\"
IMO, that scenario is less likely because Scrappy T was up there with them and he hung around fairly well. I think it is much more likely that Going Wild was just terrible for whatever reason (though chasing that horse sure didn\'t help matters).
\"Though fast, this horse was not seriously challenged in the Wood. He walked and he didn\'t walk because he ran a monster pace effort.\"
I agree that he wasn\'t challenged, but the pace was more or less in line with the final time. So if the final time was fast (which I think everyone agrees it was) the pace was also actually faster than average for 3YOs at this time of year.
\"Theres some very quick horses lining up for the Derby and I think every trainer out there now realizes this horse has to be engaged.\"
Even though I think this horse is unlikely to duplicate his 119 Beyer/-4 TG at 10F with some pressure, on an honest racetrack, against a real Grade 1 field, I\'m not sure I would want it to be my horse that\'s the one to challenge him early in the Derby. I think it\'s going to be close to impossible to run hard with this horse, put him away, and win -if he stays even reasonably close to this sharp.
I\'ll tell you one thing. If I trained High Limit, Rockport Harbor or another speed/presser type, I\'d give him some lessons on how to relax behind horses over the next few weeks - assuming they all make it that far.
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Don\'t forget Consolidator.
To me its a no brainer. Beyer says the race was a 119. TGraph is leaning towards a Negative 4. The problem is the how fast was the track for the 8th and 9th? I\'m leaning much, much faster than Beyer thinks and you really can\'t two turn that number in my opinion. I believe this race was the horses last start before the Derby was it not? On two negatives running up, he\'s clearly the Derby favorite and the horse to take if the odds are good or the horse to beat if they are shallow. Regardless of odds, on Derby Day I think an early pace challenge makes him very vulnerable. Its more a sense than anything, but I think the pressure will be there and thats the way i\'m currently leaning.
I also remember Concerto.
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Chuckles,
Your posts about Bellamy Road are eerily similar to your posts about Ghostzapper before the BC Classic, with the exception of the fact that you aren\'t questioning the distance for Bellamy Road.
Trying to beat the favorites is an admirable and smart thing to do, in my opinion, but the case you are making against Bellamy Road, is not strong. The horse is just as impressive as Smarty Jones, and I dare say more impressive. THe horses he beat in the Wood, while not top notch, were faster or even with all the horses in the Santa Anita Derby, except Sweet Catomine.
If the number is -4, then Bellamy Road is 4 points faster than any other three year old. And, the only horses that are within 4 points are Afleet Alex (sprint figure), Sun King (one turn figure), and Blues and Royals (one prep in Dubai).
That is a very very strong \"number edge\", in my opinion.
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Just to clarify, that \"4 point edge\" does not include the numbers this weekend in the Santa Anita Derby or the Illinois Derby, as T-Graph hasn\'t calculated them. I am using the numbers in the T-Graph Derby special last week, plus the -4 posted on this board as the \"unofficial\" Bellamy Road figure.
But I would seriously doubt any horse in the SA Derby ran a \"0\" or better.
As for the Illinois Derby, I guess the figure for Greeley\'s Galaxy could be pretty good. We\'ll have to see.
Speaking of the SA Derby, I would bet the best figure in that race has to go to Wilko. Anybody see the ride that Frankie Dettori gave him. Is there such a thing as \"ground loss\" records? If there was, I would guess that for 1 1/8 mile races at Santa Anita, Dettori came close. After the ridiculous rides by Jamie Spencer in the BC, especially on Powerscourt, I said I would never bet a European jockey in a US race. But I thought Dettori would be the exception. I was wrong. He had tactical speed in a paceless race and he had a long long run into the first turn. And he still screwed up.
After the race Dettori said the horse was dead game and would move forward off the race and proved he could stay the distance in the Derby. Of course he proved it, he almost ran 1 1/4 in the 1 1/8 race on Saturday.
Sorry for the sour grapes, but as somebody who had Wilko to win and used both the 30-1 winner and 50-1 second place finisher in exactas and triples, needing Wilko 1st or 2nd to make a killing, that ride was tough to take...........
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\"After the race Dettori said the horse was dead game and would move forward off the race and proved he could stay the distance in the Derby. Of course he proved it, he almost ran 1 1/4 in the 1 1/8 race on Saturday.\"
Thats one of the funnier lines I\'ve read around here.
Believe me, I feel your pain.
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Jimbo 66:
RE: WILKO....perhaps you should not jump ship just yet. He probably needed a tough, but not gut-wrenching race off of just 1 start this year. Not sure they wanted him sent from the 10 hole to go :23 and :46 & change...that may have left them empty 4 weeks from now.
By AWESOME AGAIN, BC Classic winner, this guy just keeps coming. Interesting value play/use on May 7th at perhaps 25-1(no one plays the curse anymore)
Good Luck,
Joe B.
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fyi - he wore a double bar shoe in the SA Derby for the quarter crack that first appeared 2 days before the BC.
Had they not run in the Hollywood race in December and allowed the foot to heal for a few months without training and racing, he might have a chance on May 7th, given that his run Saturday looked like the perfect prep.
But with the quarter crack issue still before them - and the way the SA track has played this winter - I don\'t think I want to include him even at overlaid odds.
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I\'m with Joe. None of this will make you feel better 66, but WILKO is interesting to me because he ran so much on grass as a 2yo.
Maybe it\'s possible to get the elusive \"bottom\" by running more on grass, which may be less stressful, especially as a 2yo. This is a training angle that I don\'t hear about as much as timing and preps. Seems like an imaginative campaign could be set up with a fast 2yo to try to preserve him a bit with a few grass tries before moving onto the more punishing dirt races.
PEACE RULES ran a bit on grass as a 2yo as well, but off the top of my head I don\'t recall too many (besides some Euros) who have done this up to the Derby. It\'s possible that the Euros have other issues (inadequete or badly timed preps...).
But Wilko ran like 40 times on grass as a 2yo...so he\'s...unique. Should be at least 30-1 off this one... That ground loss should do something for his figure... If he does anything in the Derby you can come to my GRASS RACING PREPS FOR DERBY-BOUND 2YOs seminar.
HP
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Didn\'t know about the double bar shoe. Certainly not a good thing...
HP/Joe B,
Once the anger subsides, you could be right, with the trip he got and the apparently disappointing 3rd place finish, he will be overlaid and could be worth including in gimmicks at 30-1 or higher.
p-Dub,
I am funnier after cashing, but thanks for the commiseration :)
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wilko\'s dam has a dosage of infinity (16 int speed points only). the 4.0 requirement has been proven to be meaningless, but infinity? i don\'t think he will improve stretching out. saturday was his day, and dettori could not get the win with the best horse. he was only a path wider than the buzzard, and he\'s going to have to beat a lot more than the buzzard to win the derby. 75-1 fair value.
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Michael,
I have strong opinion on whether fair value is 30-1 or 75-1 on Wilko, but I just watched the replay again and I disagree with you on the \"only one path wider\".
I guess we will see when the figures come out.
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Everything else aside, good thing they flew Dettori 5,400 miles to give them that ride, huh.
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TGJB wrote:
> Everything else aside, good thing they flew Dettori 5,400 miles
> to give them that ride, huh.
>
Yeah, that was a beauty
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jim,
what do you mean about the paths? wilko was 1 path wider than the buzzard all the way around the track. gentleman\'s bet - i will give you 75-1. jerry might surprise me with a fast fig, then i might be short at a bad level. as of now, i don\'t like the horse though.
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Ok Michael,
Gentlemen\'s bet. I think Wilko was wider around the first turn and the second turn.
I am not saying I like the horse much, but I will use a few 30-1 + shots in the bottom few slots of my superfecta on Derby Day.
Yes, 5400 miles for that ride was great. They could have gotten Jamie Spencer for a few less miles.......
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jimbo66 wrote:
> Chuckles,
>
> Your posts about Bellamy Road are eerily similar to your posts
> about Ghostzapper before the BC Classic,
Really?, heres what I said pre B.C.Classic:
Re: 0-2-x for Ghostzapper - to JB
Author: Chuckles_the_Clown2
Date: 10-30-04 12:29
bdhsheets wrote:
> \"this is your brain, and this is your brain on drugs\"?\"
>
> Where\'s CtC when you need him....
>
Implying I\'m on drugs?....lol Maybe ocassional beer or wine.
I think JB thinks Ghost and Liam got a bit juiced. Perhaps. I find it interesting that Frankel gave little thought to taking Ghost long until recently. I agree that the key to the late Frankel entries are the early Frankel entries. Liam is a good horse at 9 marks. So is Ghost. The question is can they be a good horse at 10 after those recent efforts. He\'s gonna be mixed up in a somewhat hot pace. The way the track plays could be very important. The Classic is a GREAT race and I\"m not implying I have the winner. I think it has potential value.
CtC
and heres what I said post:
Re: Ghostzap Hangover
Author: Chuckles_the_Clown2
Date: 10-31-04 04:49
I sucked, but Ghostzapper surprised me.
I bet against him on Frankels poor early performers and the no juice could be administered theory. I know this horse has some talent, but I\'m literally stunned this horse won the Classic on two distance races one of which was against nothing. I know he scored very high on T-Graphs. I spose at 5-2 I wasn\'t concerned. Perhaps I\'m an eternal skeptic, but I think the needle man was able to sneak in on this guy. One of the weirdest race patterns I\'ve ever seen.
CtC
Most of my Ghostzapper comments pertained to the analysis of the race after it was run. I did have Roses in May in my exotics and on top in that race by the way. That race was and remains an abomination.
> with the exception of
> the fact that you aren\'t questioning the distance for Bellamy
> Road.
Who says I\'m not questioning the distance for Bellamy Road?
>
> Trying to beat the favorites is an admirable and smart thing to
> do, in my opinion, but the case you are making against Bellamy
> Road, is not strong. The horse is just as impressive as Smarty
> Jones, and I dare say more impressive.
It depends upon how you evaluate loose on the lead scores doesnt it? and races where the a challenge developed.
> the horses he beat in
> the Wood, while not top notch, were faster or even with all the
> horses in the Santa Anita Derby, except Sweet Catomine.
Says Who? But, assuming thats true did they come remotely close to those back figures Saturday? REMOTELY
> If the number is -4, then Bellamy Road is 4 points faster than
> any other three year old. And, the only horses that are within
> 4 points are Afleet Alex (sprint figure), Sun King (one turn
> figure), and Blues and Royals (one prep in Dubai).
>
> That is a very very strong \"number edge\", in my opinion.
Provided you\'re surpremely confident in the numbers.
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and no, noboby else gets 75-1 (not until i see the #).
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So Chuckles, your point is that the comments I was referring to about GZ were made by you after the race, instead of before the race? Ok, I will give you that. I didn\'t research the comments, i was posting from memory, I just remember the comments about you looking forward to betting against him again, because the race in the BC was not \"true\". Doesn\'t sound like you diagree, you called it an \"abomination\".
\"Providing I am extremely confident in the number\". What is that, a shot at Beyer or T-Graph?
I am generally \"confident\" in numbers, not extremely confident. But in this case, what the numbers told me after the Wood coincide with what my eyes saw, which makes me very confident.
The bigger problem is when the numbers don\'t correspond with what your eyes saw. The example I can remember is Harlan\'s Holiday. When I saw him inhale the Floriday Derby field a few years back, I was sure it was a big figure and a derby winner. But the Beyer came back slow (I don\'t know about the T-Graph, I wasn\'t following T-Graph figures then). That is a tougher call.
As for \"says who\", with regards to the horses in the Wood being as fast as the horses in the SA Derby, I am referring to T-GRaph figures. You are on the T-Graph board, so you don\'t mind if I use their figures instead of your home-made figures, especially seeing as I don\'t have your figures..........
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jimbo66 wrote:
> So Chuckles, your point is that the comments I was referring to
> about GZ were made by you after the race, instead of before the
> race? Ok, I will give you that. I didn\'t research the
> comments, i was posting from memory, I just remember the
> comments about you looking forward to betting against him
> again, because the race in the BC was not \"true\" Doesn\'t
> sound like you diagree, you called it an \"abomination\".
Thats correct. I still believe the B.C. Classic fell apart for a number of reasons and was run on a track becoming wicked. Roses in May looked good in winning the Dubai World Cup however and that bodes well for TGraphs scoring of the BC Classic. However my post race comments pertaining to Ghostzappers leisurely fractions still apply to how I view his chances in a true race and they apply equally to Bellamy Road. Neither the BC Classic nor the Wood was a race at all.
>
> \"Providing I am extremely confident in the number\". What is
> that, a shot at Beyer or T-Graph?
I\'m just saying a number is going to be very difficult to make in the circumstances. Shug doubted Survivalists distance ability all along. Do you think he got better at the Woods 9 marks? Do you think Golden Missile was right? Do you think Scrappy T was ready? If TGJB says Neg 4 thats big weight. But if you ask him how certain he is, I bet hes gonna give you a probability.
> I am generally \"confident\" in numbers, not extremely confident.
> But in this case, what the numbers told me after the Wood
> coincide with what my eyes saw, which makes me very confident.
>
>
> The bigger problem is when the numbers don\'t correspond with
> what your eyes saw. The example I can remember is Harlan\'s
> Holiday. When I saw him inhale the Floriday Derby field a few
> years back, I was sure it was a big figure and a derby winner.
> But the Beyer came back slow (I don\'t know about the T-Graph, I
> wasn\'t following T-Graph figures then). That is a tougher
> call.
>
> As for \"says who\", with regards to the horses in the Wood being
> as fast as the horses in the SA Derby, I am referring to
> T-GRaph figures. You are on the T-Graph board, so you don\'t
> mind if I use their figures instead of your home-made figures,
> especially seeing as I don\'t have your figures..........
That was a very impressive visual race. It tied a track record. TGraph is gonna score it large. I think theres a little more to it though and I hope the odds incentive is there for those that want to say \"not so fast\".
CtC
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They could have stayed local and got Kerwin John................
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I agree CtC, I don\'t see why everyone is so quick to assume Survivalist ran his usual race. I don\'t think he did run a 4, especially when I see him barely run down a completely spent, finsished, exhausted Scrappy T. Just my two cents, worth about a penny.
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beyer,
what did you give bellamy for his late pace #?
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Beyerguy,
Why would you say Scrappy T was completely spent, finished and exhausted? Scrappy T had run a 2 3/4 in the race before, not a 4. So, you have him backing up 3 or 4 points? I don\'t think so.
Are you basing your \"spent finished and exhausted\" comments because Scrappy T. was near a fast pace? Well, the pace was not fast for that track that day. He had a nice inside post and tracked a nice pace, not a blistering one. And he tracked it, he wasn\'t \"on it\".
They ran 43.1 or so in the sprint race to the half. 46 is not quick for a grade one quality 3-year old on that track on that day.
I also don\'t understand why everybody on this board thinks Survivalist is a sprinter and couldn\'t pair up at 1 1/8? By Danzig out of Mr. Prospector mare. Maybe doesn\'t want 1 1/4, but 1 1/8 should be a fit. This isn\'t Phone Trick or Glitterman.
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Let\'s keep it TG related. I don\'t pay any attention to late ratings on dirt anyway.
I think anyone making figs for this race has a very tough task ahead of them, and the racing secretary, as usual on Wood day, didn\'t do figure makers any favors.
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i thought survivalist had every right to get 9f. danzig is neutral. the mare, though by mr prospector, is out of con game, one of the all time great phipps mares. she is a full to seeking the gold, who got 10f pretty well.
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Jimbo,
I don\'t want to go into a lot of detail. The pace was normal for that final time at Aqueduct. Meaning, Bellamy Road ran a pretty even race all the way around. Now, lets for a second assume TG had pace numbers, and the final time was a 4 neg, the pace would have also been around 4 neg. I guarentee you Scrappy has never run that fast early, not even remotely close. Scrappy was 1/2 length back after a half, I think most would define that as on the pace. He was 2.5 back at the 3/4s for a reason, he could not keep up.
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All things considered, I thought Scrappy was quite scrappy. :-)