Ask The Experts
General Category => Ask the Experts => Topic started by: Chuckles_the_Clown2 on April 18, 2005, 01:34:45 PM
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\"He\'s fine,\" trainer D. Wayne Lukas said. \"We just took him completely out of his game. Rafael, I think, was a little bit concerned about the speed and when a couple of those horses broke kind of sharp, he just elected to take back. We\'ve never had a good race out of him taking back.
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/editorial/full_edition.cgi
He ran fractions of approximately:
24.41-47.65-1.11.31
He obviously ran quicker fractions in the San Felipe, but that was a very hot surface. Other than the opening fraction in the Bluegrass I cannot say Consolidator ran slower paced than he was capable of. Lukas has issued the warning however. If Consolidator is capable of mixing it up with the likes of Bellamy Road, Rockport Harbor and High Limit, hes going.
I think the traditional Keeneland bias was in full force and effect though with a little outside path help. Bandini inherited the softened up pieces from just off pace.
I\'ve staked out a very strong position against Bellamy Road here and it hasn\'t been popularly received. I\'ve been accused of lunacy and worse on issue, but I\'m not one to shy away from conviction. When its over I want one thing absolutely clear, when NO ONE else voiced a similar view, I stood opposed to the notion that Bellamy Road was a super horse from the very beginning.
Post Edited (04-18-05 14:43)
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When a horse like Consolidator settles five lengths off the pace and comes in ten lengths off the pace......
It is a very strong work. OK
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Silver Charm:
I think its very possible Lukas used the BG as a work out race.You don\'t want a top effort 3 races in a row(assuming the derby is a top race).The way Bejarano took him 6 wide coming off the turn and then ducked back inside 3 paths smells a lot like a work race.I need to take a look at the tape and see if Bejarano used the stick on him at all in the stretch.Lukas did say earlier in the week that the top 4 finishers Saturday will have gone to the well a little bit.I always assumed he thought he would be one of the four.Maybe not.
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Maybe the race turned out to be a workout for the horse.
But why would Lukas use the race as a workout? That seems a few steps beyond the line of realism. The horse was fit and in shape and ran poorly. Doesn\'t mean he can\'t run better in May, but I doubt Lukas would throw the race.
A different story in 2001 with Proud Citizen. Lukas said before the Santa Anita DErby that he had a late start with Proud Citizen and had to use the SA Derby as a \"prep\" or \"workout\" for bigger things later. The horse ran up the track, as expected, came back and won the Lexington and placed in the Derby at high odds.
Consolidator was running in a very presitgious race, in form, at a track he had won a graded stakes race at already.
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None of the top horses from CA has lifted a hoof against top 3YOs from other parts of the country and at least 1 that was dog went there and ran well. The one thing I am certain about is that I\'m not betting a horse from out there in the Derby.
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CH,
Agreed on Cal. horses. Although \"throwing out the California horses\" figures to be an angle that everybody will use. They look like crap on T-Graph figures, Beyer figures, Brisnet figures, Rags figures, pace figures, etc.etc.
Not sure there will be any value in throwing them out. I have made a few wagers with gambling friends, offering 5-1 on any horse that ran in the Santa Anita Derby finishing in the Superfecta Derby day. I don\'t expect to have to pay out.
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jimbo,
I agree. It\'s a bit late now because everyone knows. They are unlikely to take a lot of money. But it wasn\'t too late in a few of the recent preps where I thought a horse or two was overbet.
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CH--
I agree to a point. I think CONSOLIDATOR will love CD. Check out his 2 works going in compared to the performance at Keenland.
Unusual a horse working that well would perform that poorly...under normal circumstances. I think he\'s a terrific use in the exotics.
WINNING COLORS had an awful prep going into the BC as did CAT THIEF. Ditto THUNDER GULCH.
Lukas is too sharp to dismiss at big odds, especially with a horse that has already put up a number that makes him competetive on May 7th.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
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Joe B,
Consolidator already ran at Keenland and won, running a nice figure last year. Hard to discount the race as one of the typical \"Keenland is a quirky surface, my horse just didn\'t like it\" excuses.
I think he is usable at decent odds too, but I can\'t figure out why he didn\'t run on Saturday.
I only refer to the horses that ran in the SA Derby, when I say 5-1 on any in the Superfecta. Buzzard\'s Bay, Giacomo, Wilko, General John B. and anybody else that might run back. They are all slow. I guess you could make a small case for Wilko in the bottom two slots of the Super, based on the awful ride by Dettori. But even that is a stretch....
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You can make a case for Wilko for a piece because of that trip.
I was highly suspect of Consolidator\'s last race and now that he ran badly, I don\'t see much to make me like him now.
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I had very questionable pace numbers on Consolidator and commented that he was slower than many thought. I thought off pace would have an edge in the Bluegrass however and didn\'t hold his projected pace against him. I didn\'t foresee getting behind possibly discouraging him and at any rate he didnt run a lick. I do think a carrying bias had something to do with that, but I also think it likely that Consolidator just ran into faster horses Saturday than he was used to facing.
I believe Lukas was genuinely surprised by the effort. I\'ve concluded Lukas did not send this horse out for a race day work. Now, to my mind theres little doubt that Lukas will send him on May 7th. How close he can get to the front runners is another matter.
The times Lukas won the Derby or has run very competitively hes come in off wins to my knowledge. This time his horse ran very poorly. I do believe he has to be respected, but the pace looks severe to my eye. If Going Wild gets in, Katy bar the door.
Post Edited (04-18-05 20:11)
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Cinsolidaror WILL run big in the DERBY......
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CtC,
\"I believe Lukas was genuinely surprised by the effort.\"
That\'s not surprising.. Someone from the barn probably had to show him which horse Consolidator was..
\"The times Lukas won the Derby or has run very competitively hes come in off wins to my knowledge.\"
It\'s more of a mixed bag. Thunder Gulch was a dull 4th in the Blue Grass. Even if Timber Country had won, he was coming off a 4th to Larry the Legend in the SA Derby..
Grindstone 2nd in the AK Derby to Zarb\'s Magic.
Charismatic won the Lex though, Proud Citizen too, and Winning Colors the SA Derby..
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Well, its Derby time and once again I must remind you all that at best Thunder Gulch gets a big fat asterik - as his rider was equipped with and used a buzzer.
Now I am still a believer in the dual qualifyer system. There were a few horses over the last few years who were not dual qualifiers, but last years exacta had two dual qualifyers !! They also had the best TG figs.
What I see this year is: Bellamy Road (not a dual qualifyer) bouncing big time, like a Zito horse will often do.
Afleet Alex is a dual qualifyer, but also looks like a bounce candidate for a juice trainer.
Bandini is not a dual qualifyer and may have peaked in BG. Of all the non qualifyers though, he has my interest as his pattern has gradual increases and not big jumps.
Consolidator is a dual qualifyer but is inconsistant and has only one race that is fast. If Stevens had the mount in the Derby, then I wouldn\'t toss him (if you know what I mean).
Sun King - is another dual qualifyer but looks to me like another Zito flash in the pan.
High Fly is not a dual qualifyer and niether is Giants Causway. I am more interested in GC down the road like the Belmont.
Wilko and Giacomo are dual qualifyers and are being overlooked as their races so far are not very fast. I\'ll be looking at these two (more at Wilko) a little more closely since they will be a price and may just have saved the best for the Derby. Maybe a BC Juvinile winner can get off the schnied and finally win the Derby. Looking forward to seeing the sheets on this race.
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Kasept wrote:
> CtC,
>
> \"I believe Lukas was genuinely surprised by the effort.\"
>
> That\'s not surprising.. Someone from the barn probably had to
> show him which horse Consolidator was..
>
>
>
> \"The times Lukas won the Derby or has run very competitively
> hes come in off wins to my knowledge.\"
>
> It\'s more of a mixed bag. Thunder Gulch was a dull 4th in the
> Blue Grass.
I knew Thunder missed the Bluegrass winners circle. It was a \"right there\" fourth is my recollection.
>Even if Timber Country had won, he was >coming off a
> 4th to Larry the Legend in the SA Derby..
I forgot that one too. How close?
> Grindstone 2nd in the AK Derby to Zarb\'s Magic.
I thought Grindstone won the Ark. Bad memory. He was right there vs.Zarb wasnt he?
> Charismatic won the Lex though, Proud Citizen too, and Winning
> Colors the SA Derby..
\"His Derby winners have not tossed a clunker in their last prep.\" I was wrong about Grindstone, but thats what I should have stated.
This time, its a bona fide clunker and the question is do you respect Lukas so much you work this horse into your combinations. I don\'t think he can win. Theres too much speed for that. The track will have alot to say about the betting strategy.
MO, I\'ve never been a big supporter of your buzzer theory, but after reaching the shenanigans conclusion that I have reaced this year with doping and secret vet visits, I am much less skeptical.
I dont have a number for Wilcos Santa Anita Derby yet and he did look hangy at the end, but I also believe with a nice appearance at Churchill Downs he is positioned to move forward. Whether that will be good enough is another issue.
Post Edited (04-19-05 11:08)
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Lets go to the video............
At one time, I thought you actually agreed with me on this one. I think after you reviewed the tape.
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\"This time, its a bona fide clunker and the question is do you respect Lukas so much you work this horse into your combinations\"
Are you so sure it was a clunker and not that his prior race on that wet fast sealed track wasn\'t as \"good\" as it was \"fast\"?
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Re: WILKO...sorry, but not sure this guy wants to get a mile and a quarter. (I know.. he\'s by AWESOME AGAIN)...he had every chance to go by some really weak animals and did not.
I\'m a thoro guy, a watch the races guy, a pace analysis (not pace figures) guy when it comes to this game.
The Santa Anita Derby came up weak versus the other route races on the card. Can\'t remember the specifics, but this appeared to be an ordinary race both from a pace perspective and visually. Besides, I agree with CH that there is good reason to completely avoid whatever comes out of California.
When it comes to the Derby, I also incorporate the dosage. I do not mean the 4.00/1.25 crap. I\'m talking about the dominant classisity dosage distribution where the 3rd of the 5 numbers across exceeds the total of all the other 4 numbers.
The only one possessing that right now is HIGH FLY. His pull-up after the Florida Derby indicated he can carry that speed even further.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
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>>The only one possessing that right now is HIGH FLY.
Derby winner must have gotten a FF time of at least 51.3 FPS in a 9 furlong race among their preps. (My new, non-negotiable qualifier) Sorry, High Fly comes up a bit short in each of his trys, the FOY and the FL Dby. Also coming up short is the Blue Grass winner but also rans Consolidator and Sun King rate from previous efforts.
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classhandicapper wrote:
> \"This time, its a bona fide clunker and the question is do you
> respect Lukas so much you work this horse into your
> combinations\"
> Are you so sure it was a clunker and not that his prior race on
> that wet fast sealed track wasn\'t as \"good\" as it was \"fast\"?
The San Felipe was on a dragstrip and Consolidator obviously relished the strip and the kind pace scenario. Personally, I think he got outfooted in the Bluegrass and the jock didn\'t want to use him early to keep it close. However the chart says bobbled and bumped. Once behind he went wide, may have got discouraged and certainly had a carrying bias to overcome. Still it was not much of an effort. I guess the upside is it couldn\'t have taken much out of him, provided hes right.
I have a dilemma. I\'m skeptical about him running well at Churchill now, but hes a dangerous horse to leave out of the underneath spots. The exact makeup of the field, how the track plays and watching him at Louisville will probably decide it for me.
Blind Switch Said:
>>The only one possessing that right now is HIGH FLY.
Derby winner must have gotten a FF time of at least 51.3 FPS in a 9 furlong race among their preps. (My new, non-negotiable qualifier) Sorry, High Fly comes up a bit short in each of his trys, the FOY and the FL Dby. Also coming up short is the Blue Grass winner but also rans Consolidator and Sun King rate from previous efforts.
Blind 51.3 feet per second?
I don\'t think Sun King or Consolidator had any other 9 mark preps. I\'m sure of it, its one reason I discounted Sun King. If you\'re not pulling our legs, you\'re feet per seconding Sun King on a one turn mile.
Post Edited (04-19-05 14:13)
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Blind Switch--
I would think that would be dependent on the pace which then becomes a discussion of early versus late pace which is probably something we do not want to get into here.
I would agree that HIGH FLY certainly needs to relax a bit early on, but unless you can give me a legitimate closer that can take advantage of the \"slower\" final splits....
Good Luck,
Joe B.
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jbelfior wrote:
> but unless you can give me a legitimate closer that
> can take advantage of the \"slower\" final splits....
>
>
> Good Luck,
> Joe B.
I\'m not saying they are gonna fire, but theres certainly some horses in the race that may be able to fire large late. Greater Good, Afleet Alex and Noble Causeway come to mind. I think theres a couple others that could shock the world with a little luck.
I do think the winner will probably be a stalker and not a deep closer. To this point the deep closers haven\'t been fast enough and I\'m looking for a pace advantaged Zed to win. I was very high on Blues and Royals. He was both fast and pace advantaged. When Beyer said he couldn\'t win on one prep and annoited Bellamy the derby victor that cinched it for me. Now hes out so some of the bombs become viable with a little luck.
Post Edited (04-19-05 14:42)
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CtC--
AFLEET ALEX-- cranked and pointed to the Arkansas Derby. Smallish colt...not sure he can step up again in 3 weeks. More likely to bounce after no show in the Rebel.
NOBLE CAUSEWAY---definitely a possibility if he continues to improve. Not sure I like Prado sticking with SUN KING.
GREATER GOOD--My \"bombs away\" buddy likes him also. Not sure what you guys see in him. Looks like a 1 1/16 closer at best to me.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
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Joe,
\"I\'m talking about the dominant classisity dosage distribution where the 3rd of the 5 numbers across exceeds the total of all the other 4 numbers.\"
If it\'s not too much of an effort, could you elaborate on this or point me to an article.
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Greater Good may not want big ground, but his Ark was not his race. He came unglued in the infield, washed out, rushed up...went wide...it was a horror trip. I really didn\'t expect it. He just lost his head. The trainer says its the infield saddling. It may be big crowds. So if i work him in Derby day you can bet i\'m gonna find out if hes washy or not. He\'s not the kind of horse that makes for a wise bet coming in. Bad attitude race, Not fast enough on the figs. But I think if he didnt toss his cookies last hes got a significant forward move in him. Its more speculative now though nothing gained in the last race. It will improve his odds though.
Regarding Alex, I\'ve liked that horse all along. I lost a wad on him in the B.C.Juvenile. Fast horses work fast. They run fast too. Alex apparently also has two bracketed negative numbers coming in. He never did bounce as a 2yo. He just kept grinding them out. He has a solid foundation under him and how far is his progression from his 2yo form? One thing we do know is that he is progressing. In his lone bad race he was right in it and spit the bit late. So he was trying even then. I get a Silver Charm sense with him. He just likes to run. He may not win the Derby but hes not one i\'m liable to leave out.
Noble Causeway, Jocks are horrible handicappers. I think Nakatani and his agent took Andromeda\'s Hero over Afleet Alex. If Ritchy dumps Rose for Nakatani or Solis he deserves what he\'ll in all likelihood get.
Post Edited (04-19-05 15:06)
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If your just concerned with Dual Qualifiers you can toss both Giacomo and Wilko as both have DI\'s over 4.00.
Giacomo-4.33
Wilko-7.00
The DQ\'s who look to be running will be:
Afleet Alex, Sun King, Consolidator with a possible Rockport Harbor. This may make it easier for you.
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CH--
Sure. Besides the dosage index and center of distribution, the dosage is also expressed across 5 wings:
brilliant, intermediate, classic, stamina, and professional. the prescence of more points in the classic wing indicates (potentially) a finer balance between speed and stamina.
HIGH FLY has 20 of his 30 pedigree points in the \"classic\" wing. No other potential entry has this.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
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Hey thanks for the tip. Been away from the game a few years now.
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OOOPS- Correcto - my apologies. Should have clarified better. Both Sun King and Consol. were 8.5F preps but FF or final FRACTION (i.e. 2 1/2 furlongs in 8.5F race; 3 furlongs in 9F) were extremely strong.
Using unadjusted times with reagrd to variant, but adjusted for beaten lengths.
A little raw right now, but Sun King\'s Tam Dby final fraction went in 30.4 or 54.3 FPS and Cons was in 30.2. These are very fast races and put them both in the \"strong contenders\" column, at least for now.
If Afleet Alex broke through and not over the top on Saturday, look out. That was a monsterous effort.
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Chuckles_the_Clown2 wrote:
> Greater Good may not want big ground, but his Ark was not his
> race. He came unglued in the infield, washed out, rushed
> up...went wide...it was a horror trip. I really didn\'t expect
> it. He just lost his head. The trainer says its the infield
> saddling. It may be big crowds. So if i work him in Derby day
> you can bet i\'m gonna find out if hes washy or not. He\'s not
> the kind of horse that makes for a wise bet coming in. Bad
> attitude race, Not fast enough on the figs. But I think if he
> didnt toss his cookies last hes got a significant forward move
> in him. Its more speculative now though nothing gained in the
> last race. It will improve his odds though.
>
All true, and it looked like McKee used him right out of the gate to try to get position going into the first turn, failing miserably to do so.
I may be delusional due to my future wagers on GG, but I think he\'s much better than what he showed in the Ark Derby, although he wouldn\'t have gotten to AA that day.
Should he run for the roses, and it looks like he will, a definite longshot to be sure. But if half the field is on the pace and the pace collapses, who knows.
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set me straight...thought the D.I. was put to rest years ago when it was found that by adjusting the index AFTER the 3yr old campaign of a derby caliber horse just about all bloodlines fit under the max.# allowed.
what have they added to the recipe in order to use as a tool to predict bloodline dosage BEFORE the derby and late summer grade 1\'s?
thanx in advance,
PARTYpokerON
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> Chuckles_the_Clown2 wrote:
>
> > Greater Good may not want big ground, but his Ark was not his
> > race. He came unglued in the infield, washed out, rushed
> > up...went wide...it was a horror trip.
hossgnat wrote:
> All true, and it looked like McKee used him right out of the
> gate to try to get position going into the first turn, failing
> miserably to do so.
>
> I may be delusional due to my future wagers on GG, but I think
> he\'s much better than what he showed in the Ark Derby, although
> he wouldn\'t have gotten to AA that day.
>
> Should he run for the roses, and it looks like he will, a
> definite longshot to be sure. But if half the field is on the
> pace and the pace collapses, who knows.
>
I\'m not so sure McKee sent him. McKee is a decent Jock and he had to figure taking him in to save ground was the key to that hole. I think GG sent himself. That he was unnerved by the Crowd and saddling outside. I thought he\'d move forward to about a 1 or 2 and we\'d get a chance to evaluate his distance potential. All that went up in nerves. Now if you got him in the Derby, you have to hope he keeps his head and moves forward large. Still he closed slightly, was only beaten four lengths for second and never gave up on that horror trip and washout. This trainer brings horses from off pace like this, but you\'re sitting on a horse with a chance in my estimation. Mostly it depends on his head I think.
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davidrex wrote:
>
>
> set me straight...thought the D.I. was put to rest years ago
> when it was found that by adjusting the index AFTER the 3yr old
> campaign of a derby caliber horse just about all bloodlines fit
> under the max.# allowed.
>
> what have they added to the recipe in order to use as a tool
> to predict bloodline dosage BEFORE the derby and late summer
> grade 1\'s?
>
>
> thanx in advance,
>
> PARTYpokerON
Its all hoodoo dave, always was, but the last three of four derby winners put it to rest. Perhaps \"modern\" training too.
Blind\'s FPS and TGraphs speed is the way to go. In the next couple weeks we\'ll sit down here and look close at pedigree for that last little edge in deciding if they will move forward at 10 marks. If you got two tossup horses you separate them that way. Even then you\'re gonna be about 50 50 to guess wrong...lol TGraph would box.
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thanx ctMc,
i have held basically same opinion of D.I. as ctmc[possibly worded a litle differently!] i would love to hear from alan or jerry on not only their opinion but if anything relevant to the index has been added.this appeal goes out to anyone who is current on this topic.this is in no way a smurch on ctmc..i just feel he and I are from the same time period with the same preordained predigest thoughts on the subject
thanx,
PARTYpokerON!
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CTC,
what do you mean when you say Blind\'s FPS?
I\'ve done FPS calculations myself but was wondering if this was some type of statistical use of FPS.
NC Tony (aka Brooklyn Tony)
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I\'ve never gotten into it in that detail. I was surprised is all. I look at pace and closing fractions and extrapolate them to a quarter is all.