Ask The Experts
General Category => Ask the Experts => Topic started by: Michael D. on April 18, 2005, 08:28:37 PM
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you knew it was only a matter of time before the experts would start questioning bandini\'s win. shug is sending survivalist to the derby, one of the reasons - the blue grass collapsed. haskin has an article on bloodhorse.com, also questioning the quality of bandini\'s win (espscially the closing fractions). seems people have been trained to be skeptical of the blue grass winner. after all, the race has produced a lot of derby runners that finished up the track after taking a lot of money.
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2005 Bluegrass Day
4^25K,Cl-23.49, 46.95, 1:11.50, 1:17.96
3YO,MSW-22.49, 45.59, 1:10.68, 1:23.68
4^NW1X-22.75, 46.93, 1:12.80, 1:38.46, 1:44.72
3YO,50k,C-l22.48, 45.71, 1:12.03, 1:25.46
3YOf,NWX1- 23.57, 47.64, 1:12.10, 1:38.20, 1:44.72
3^,400K-22.24, 44.94, 1:09.76, 1:22.06
3YO,750K-23.41, 46.65, 1:10.56, 1:36.76, 1:50.16
I just reviewed the charts from last year and though I think the quality of the races differed somewhat the finishing times were definitely slower when TGraph assigned The Cliffs Edge about a negative 1 is my recollection.
When This years Bluegrass was over I thought a 2, maybe a 1 for Bandini, but that makes High Limit about a 4 at best. Bandini had some ground loss vis a vie that one of course. Theres enough two turn sampling for me to defer to TGraph here. I did last year and it stood me in good stead. Jerry mentioned negative 1. I guess that makes High Limit about a 3. Closing Argument about a 4 with ground loss. I\'m speculating of course. I think the six furlong mark was hot.
Give me a moment to find the post and I\'ll post last years Bluegrass day times.
2004 Bluegrass Day
4up,NW1X,8.5: 24.40, 48.59, 1:13.67, 1:39.39, 1:45.72
Favorite off pace
4up,F,10k,7f: 22.78, 46.34, 1:11.55, 1:25.18
Favorite always prominent
4up,F,25k,8.5: 24.13, 48.22, 1:13.20, 1:40.52, 1:47.43
2nd choice wire
4up,F,MSW,8.5: 23.98, 48.99, 1:14.98, 1:43.11, 1:50.15
Favorite off pace
3up,250K/stk,7f: 22.63, 45.20, 1:09.78, 1:23.14
Favorite off pace
3up,MSW,6f: 21.85, 46.11, 58.72, 1:11.99
3rd choice wire
3yr,F,NW1X,8.5: 23.57, 47.84, 1:12.90, 1:39.40, 1:45.91
Closer 4th choice
3yr,750K/stk,9f: 23.70, 46.60, 1:11.12, 1:36.91, 1:49.42
2004-23.70, 46.60, 1:11.12, 1:36.91, 1:49.42
2005-23.41, 46.65, 1:10.56, 1:36.76, 1:50.16
Not alot of difference on the Bluegrass Stakes, but the NW1X races were significantly slower. That could be path and quality of animal I suppose. I tend to agree with Haskin\'s analysis though, but for the rubbery legged part taking back. Other than bias that made no sense.
http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=27701
Heres what he said about Bellamy. This guy knows how to view a race. I dont agree with him that TCE lost lengths going inside in last years Florida Derby though and I don\'t think Survivalist has a remote prayer:
http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=27596
Post Edited (04-18-05 23:01)
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Wasn\'t Shug always conservative in regard to the Derby?
Survivalist wouldn\'t crack the top 15 at Churchill.He closed to pass Scrappy T who was cooked from chasing.He\'s slower than even the SA derby horses.What a joke.He\'s punching holes in the Bluegrass because Bandini came home slow.Survivalist could only manage to come home in 38.88 while doing absolutely nothing for the first 3/4\'s.
Someone has Derby fever-ridiculous.
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big18741 wrote:
> Wasn\'t Shug always conservative in regard to the Derby?
...
>What a joke.He\'s punching holes in the
> Bluegrass because Bandini came home slow.Survivalist could only
> manage to come home in 38.88 while doing absolutely nothing for
> the first 3/4\'s.
I agree, Survivalists meager closing number came on a speed conducive track if the horse was any horse at all.
We\'ll see, my guess is that Shug will see the light and pass hoping to be better later. Survivalist is not good now. Those were rusting tin cans in the Gotham and they were rustier in the Wood. Shug probably sees a pace scenario that gives him some pause. Thats the only reason hes deliberating.
> Someone has Derby fever-ridiculous.
Post Edited (04-19-05 11:20)