Ask The Experts
General Category => Ask the Experts => Topic started by: mikemd on May 01, 2005, 11:15:21 AM
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i made an early derby line. my line is (first). wsex.com line is [second]. things will change once posts are drawn and i update my track model for cd. i generally don\'t play ky tracks, so my model is a little generic.
afleet alex (11/1) [9/2]
andromedas hero (70/1) [40/1]
bandini (15/1) [5/1]
bellamy road (5/1) [8/5]
buzzards bay (25/1) [30/1]
closing arguement (90/1) [30/1]
coin silver (25/1) [25/1]
consolidator (60/1) [20/1]
don\'t get mad (35/1) [15/1]
flower alley (15/1) [30/1]
giacomo (30/1) [22/1]
going wild (99/1) [15/1]
greater good (60/1) [25/1]
greeley\'s galaxy (15/1) [17/1]
high fly (9/1) [8/1]
high limit (6/1) [10/1]
noble causeway (25/1) [13/1]
sort it out (80/1) [35/1]
spanish chestnut (99/1) [-]
sun king (50/1) [17/1]
wilko (35/1) [16/1]
based on that, i would be looking at:
high limit
flower alley
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Don\'t bet your lunch money......
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Neither you nor the website know how to make an odds line.
How much of Afleet Alex are you willing to take at 11-1? LOL
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Your top 8 account for 100% of the pool, try again!
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Gvido and Wrongly -
Not to speak for mikemd, but I think he\'s saying what he\'ll take for odds, not what he\'ll give. It\'s based on the odds he would require to expect to get 100% of his money back over the long haul. A track line would build in the takeout, so the expected return would be roughly 85%. Based on what I think he\'s doing (which is in principle what I do, but I require a 125% return when I make my odds line), mikemd\'s line foots perfectly.
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wrongly,
take another look. my line is on the left. it\'s a 100% line. the line on the right is from wsex.com. it obviously is not a 100% line. that\'s how they make money. but, you would have known that if you read the post.
gvido,
for afleet alex to be a cinch, he would have to be 15/1 on my line. i think i had him 15/1 for his last race and don\'t get mad at 15/1 for the race on sunday. both ran pretty good for 15/1. :-)
[edited to remove hastiness]
Post Edited (05-01-05 15:07)