Ask The Experts
General Category => Ask the Experts => Topic started by: superfreakicus on June 01, 2002, 06:06:19 AM
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jerry says,
\"So you figure I should post picks for free, while also charging for them, so that I can have a contest which if I win does nothing for me (after all, if I win all I did was beat David Patent), and if I lose he\'s beating Jerry Brown. Anticipating your next wisecrack--when I challenged Friedman there was an awful lot of potential customers on both sides at stake, and I was well known. Winning that one would have been big publicity for either of us. And if he wants to do it for Belmont day, I\'ll give up charging for the analysis for the day.\"
first, let me address HP\'s semantic nitpicking.
a gentlemen\'s bet is simply a contest between 2 (normally) w/o any real prize.
I use \'contest\' because this now has at least 3 entrants, after I\'ve invited myself in.
what difference this makes, I have no idea.
now, how friedman got dragged into this, I also have no idea --- we all know he\'d have no interest.
I only invited jerry because:
a) he\'s the host here, and being a gracious host, I thought maybe he\'d take part in the entertainment.
b) I\'m no pro --- in fact, I\'m pretty much a hack, and I didn\'t want to finish last.
I figured he\'d duck, and I see he\'s as good at anticipating as I am --- although The Sheets seem to have done ok w/o the great publicity of beating him in a handicapping contest.
I just wish you\'d be honest instead of conjuring up some excuse.
you just offered to give away product to some taste tester for the entire saratoga meet, but you\'re worried about losing sales to tabitha and alydar if you post plays here for one card?
HP\'s already said he\'s got no use for your picks --- don\'t people buy your numbers, or do you just sell a tout sheet?
look, this isn\'t just any day --- it\'s a big day of racing, and I thought these bs message board contests were for fun --- don\'t you like having fun?
actually, the only reason I even went to the great trouble of registering here was to enter this contest.
you post and post endlessly on The Sheets board, hoping to lure customers over here, but what happens then?
here I am, lured over, but you\'re so worried about the 6 posters here getting free product for a card that you refuse to sell me.
dude, if you don\'t want to enter, don\'t enter --- it was invitation, not coercion.
I can\'t imagine why anybody would give a goddamn about my plays, but they\'ll be posted up for the record.
by the way....
\"...(after all, if I win all I did was beat David Patent), and if I lose he\'s beating Jerry Brown....\"
I\'ve seen your picks --- I can\'t imagine who would consider that an accomplishment.
(maybe crist....?)
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\"a gentlemen\'s bet is simply a contest between 2 (normally) w/o any real prize.
I use \'contest\' because this now has at least 3 entrants, after I\'ve invited myself in.\"
The operative words here being \'after I\'ve invited myself in.\' You can post what you want, but after seeing you turn this into an attack on Jerry for not posting his picks in some \'contest\' you\'ve decided he has to participate in, I think it\'s clear your agenda is something other than \'fun\'.
The whole point is Patent will use Rags and I\'ll use TG and there may be some discussion of handicapping with the respective products. Despite the surrounding hoohah, it could be a practical handicapping discussion as opposed to a lot of the more partisan stuff that goes on. I guess it was inevitable that someone would latch on and turn it into their own thing.
What Jerry\'s picks have to do with this is beyond me. Maybe you should be diplomatic and wait until this is over before establishing the rules for your own \'contest\'. I don\'t think there\'s anything wrong with you posting your picks, but you\'re going a lot further and I think its uncalled for. HP
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I have not purchased Thorograph since 1995. Which is not to say I do not at times access them when I have a dilemma. When I tune in here for the race of the week (I do so with regularity) I bet against the T-Graph standouts with as much frequency as I bet on them. An example is the Mass Handicap. There is a key horse in this race and the T-Graph analysis is completely off base in my opinion. I have strong circumstantial evidence corroborating my opinion. Not surprisingly I find Chris\'s odds line which is based upon T-Graph figures and methodology skewed as well. But I think he\'s correct in factoring it as a four horse race. At the risk of getting beat by his best ever I\'m tossing Griffinite. But there is a key horse in the remaining four.
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I think you\'re being a little oversensitive.
admittedly, I\'m a party crasher, but since this is just some little message board bs\'ing I figured you 2 wouldn\'t have any objection to others joining in --- didn\'t your mother ever teach you to share?
now, on w/the quoting....
\"I think it\'s clear your agenda is something other than \'fun\'. \"
well, apparently you\'re not such a great handicapper after all --- now, all I\'ve got to worry about is patent.
\"The whole point is Patent will use Rags and I\'ll use TG and there may be some discussion of handicapping with the respective products. Despite the surrounding hoohah, it could be a practical handicapping discussion as opposed to a lot of the more partisan stuff that goes on. I guess it was inevitable that someone would latch on and turn it into their own thing.\"
so, what you\'re telling me is that it can only be a practical handicapping discussion if the 2 of you are involved?
\"What Jerry\'s picks have to do with this is beyond me. \"
uh....please refer to above.....waitaminute...yeah, you\'re right.
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This is silly. I\'ve never had any objection to you or anyone else joining in. I criticized you regarding your harangue about Jerry posting his picks and everything related to that. I\'ve said all along (in at least two of these posts responding to you directly) that it would be fine if you or anyone else who wants to would post their picks and talk about this to their heart\'s content.
Learn how to read. And post those picks champ! HP
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Ya got me--I\'m a chicken (err,duck), and a bad handicapper. And I never go on record.
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\"Ya got me--I\'m a chicken (err,duck), and a bad handicapper. And I never go on record.\"
I don\'t know where you sarcastically came up w/that last part ---- I never claimed anything of the sort.
as a matter of fact, that\'s how we deduced the middle part.
if I remember, your public picks were my introduction to you and your product.
this isn\'t the drf, it\'s not nat\'l tv --- this is your own \'house\', and we\'re discussing a card that has everyone\'s interest for a day.
you\'ll certainly be playing that card, and posting on this board is hardly out of your way.
honestly, there\'d apparently only be one reason for dodging a friendly contest w/your board regulars (and me -- a little irregular).
forgive me if I was asking so much, and I look forward to hearing about all your big cashes on sunday.
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You\'re too clever for me, like all the other raggies who have come and gone here. I told you why I\'m not doing it--for the reasons I put forth in my first response on this subject. But don\'t let that stop you--maybe everyone reading this is as stupid as you think. They\'re certainly not as smart as you.
By the way, if it was Drf or national TV I would do it, just as I have many times in the past. I\'m sure that you and Patent have your own national followings as well.
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As a \"raggie\", I think you are right not to enter this contest for the reasons you stated. But, if you were being intellectually honest, you would disavow all of these silly handicapping challenges as having anything to do with the quality of the sheets. Unless a handicapping contest were done over a very long period of time and with persons of identical handicapping abilities, the result would not come close to proving that one\'s sheets were more accurate than the other\'s. I know you are smart enough to know that. I don\'t begrudge you from making these challenges to Friedman in the past, as I am sure it would help promote your product, but it is only the \"stupid\" people who would be influenced one way or another in deciding which product to purchase.
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\"By the way, if it was Drf or national TV I would do it, just as I have many times in the past. I\'m sure that you and Patent have your own national followings as well.\"
whoa, there ---- put it back in your pants, big boy.
I thought we were talking about a friendly message board contest.
I guess you missed my post where I described myself as a \'hack\' ---- I\'m not setting myself up as some kind of guru.
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I should add.......
\". But don\'t let that stop you--maybe everyone reading this is as stupid as you think. They\'re certainly not as smart as you. \"
I notice you\'ve added mind reading right below handicapping in your list of skills.
having only posted here a short time, I certainly wouldn\'t be in any position to judge the regulars here, but if you really thought so much of their intellect I doubt you\'d be pandering to them like you are.
from now on, stick to expressing your own thoughts, please.
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The contest I proposed was going to be over a very long length of time (6 months), with picks and results posted on the Drf site, me vs. Friedman, who is virtually identical in terms of sheet reading with me--we went to the track together hundreds of time. The differences are in betting style, and of course data used--not just figures, but trainer and pedigree info.
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your point?
what\'s that get friedman?
should he agree so that you can have a contest which if he wins does nothing for him (after all, if he wins all he did was beat jerry brown), and if he loses you\'re beating len friedman?
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Not to state the obvious, but, as you may have noticed, there are a whole bunch of TG customers out there, and this would have been a chance to impress them, just as it would have been a chance to impress his guys. Not you, though.
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You partly make my point. When I talk about handicapping ability, I include betting style. In my experience betting style will have at least as much to do with turning a proft than an informational advantage. Further, in So. Cal., if you try to handicap with the sheets, without also taking into account trainers, you are doomed. Unfortunately, the increase in purses (which leads owners to run horses less often) and the influx of legal and illegal drugs (which makes horses faster, but inconsistent over the long run) is making this more and more true in other parts of the country as well. Thus, being a good sheet reader is not the only variable (though obviously important or would not spend the $30.00) in being a good handicapper. [Frankly, this is even more true with horse buying, which is why I put little stock in either of your success in that arena as telling me much of anything useful].
Thus, I still stand by the fact that any handicapping contest (even if long) is invalid as a predictor of the better sheet. That is because I define \"better\" as accurate and unfortunately \"accuracy\" could not be reasonably measured without scientific studies and neutral statistical analysis, both of which would be very expensive (even if not possible) and not likely to be commissioned and shared by either party.
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Okay, I\'ll bite (and obviously, I have a strong opinion on the answer).
Given your position, how does one come to a PRACTICAL determination of what data is better?
In my view, the answer is twofold--full understanding of how figures are made (and we are just getting started), and comparisons (which is why we have The Red Board Room).
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The only thing I have to go on is experience and the stated methodoligies that each of you use. Based on both, I have chosen Ragozin. On the methodolgy issue, you and David Patent have debated that to death.
As I noted, a true comparison (one that compares the accuracy of the numbers) is pretty much impossible, so I don\'t hold out much hope that anything would work.
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\"Not to state the obvious, but, as you may have noticed, there are a whole bunch of TG customers out there, and this would have been a chance to impress them, just as it would have been a chance to impress his guys. Not you, though.\"
I could have sworn I had a reply in here --- are you deleting me now?
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Maybe you guys could set it up like the Daily News \"Battle of Saratoga\"you could throw in the cute little comments like Bossert & Little do it would be great entertainment value .Speaking of value it thought that was the whole idea of sheet handicapping ,it seems to me that you couldn\'t have a real contest unless picks are made with post time odds.
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that is absolutely true.
but, you have to work w/what you\'ve got, and I think that would be impossible for key participants.
we\'ll just have to make our best guess on actual odds --- that\'ll be part of the contest.
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A whole mess of stuff got inadvertantly deleted, including several of mine.