Ask The Experts
General Category => Ask the Experts => Topic started by: Chuckles_the_Clown2 on September 16, 2005, 03:02:38 PM
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India is an interesting horse.
They have her morning line favorite from the 1 hole! Broke maiden impressively end of June. 5.5 was a long way back then. Breeder that sold her for 400k bought her back for 2000k off that maiden win. Now thats confidence...lol
Well, its back to Belmont where she wasn\'t as sharp. You can only hope they make her 7-5 or less.
Atto:
Thought Allan handicapped the race pretty well will not disagree with his position. Want to point out Sophia\'s Choice though.
That last race was very good. The track was quick, but there was no part in that race where Sophia was weak.
The risk is bounce of course. The optimistic news is that for the most part the horse has been hickory. He\'s bounced little, but for his 2YO year and has missed little time. He\'s a Canada horse. They don\'t take him out to the track until May and hes out to pasture by the end of December. Hes danced all the dances and only has 26 starts. Shossbergs are late developers per the TGI stats.
He was just about as good a Turf horse as a Dirt horse and theres no reason to think he won\'t be a better Turf horse now that hes a better dirt horse. This year, hes a new horse. Note the change in running style. Mabye hes not up to the top two, but he makes for great perfecta value and I won\'t allow him to get in the perfecta or trifecta with the heavy heads without me.
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I think the Atto is unbettable. It\'s hard for me to get negative on Leroy given that he\'s 8-10 on turf with 1 second against many solid Graded Stakes horses. I think the difference between him and some of the others is greater than the small edge in speed figures indicates. Plus, he\'s got the perfect style to get consistently easy trips. He should get another one from the rail. The only knock I can find is that that last field wasn\'t particularly good and he got a very easy trip on the lead. So he may not have been as sharp there as he was earlier in the year. Even that\'s a stretch though because you could argue that his last race was a prep for this and the BC.
India ran a very fast race in her last, but a lot of 2YOs don\'t duplicate their 5F and 5.5F figures when they stretch out to 7F. That goes double if they were wire to wire winners against maidens and are trying stakes company for the first time where they may take some serious early heat. It\'s tough to bet against a lightly raced Pletcher 2YO with the top figure, but I\'m pretty sure she\'s not as good as she looks right now. It\'s a matter of whether \"not being as good as she looks\" is still good enough to win here. I might get a little interested in River\'s Prayer if the price is high enough. There\'s not much difference between her and horses like Folklore, but I think she comes out of pretty tough and hotly contested race out in CA where she rated for the first time.
In the Futurity I would like Master of Disaster, but he supposedly had some problems after his last race. You can see the gap in his WOs. So you have to at least wonder if he\'s 100%. After that I\'m not a particularly big fan of Private Vow \"yet\" even though he seems to be developing as they stretch out. In his last race he wired a 3 horse field with a loose lead on a track that if anything was tilted towards speed. He\'s got to be at least a little suspect off tha trip. After that it starts becoming a crap shoot because you are counting on MoD not being 100% and PV not being as good as he looks to get someone else in there (like Union Course) and no one I can see merits a lot of confidence.
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india will go off much lower than 7-5. not sure what to think of her. taking 3/5 on a yound hennessy filly stretching from 5.5f to 7f doesn\'t sound like smart gambling to me. she could rate if needed though, and i give her a decent shot to get the longer distances with hoist the flag and halo on bottom (might have soundness issues though). india looks tough. have to just watch it i guess.
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as for master of disaster - i guess you have to try and beat him here at low odds. starting from post 1, he will have to be nudged out of the gate, and will most likely face pressure all the way around the track. who can rate a bit here?
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more on the atto mile later - after a quick look, the fave looks tough.
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after a second look - the ROTW is interesting. if pval can save ground and not get trapped, OR, if lerwa does react from the shorter than usual rest, KOH looks like the play. i\'m with TG on this one.
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Sure hes not a bad horse, but hes barely beaten a couple of these and is coming back on short rest for one of the few times in his career. His inside post is an advantage, but not as big of one as they sometimes are.
Plus the track took a good dose of water today and he has some issues. Sure Ghostzapper did too hes gonna be odds on and thats too juicy to pass up. Lets see how he handles a fair surface for a change. :)
The Futurity I\'m much more in flux about. Master of Disaster looks a decent horse, but I\'m not so sure cutting into Henny Hughes lead is that big of an accomplishment. He ran over 1.24 in the Hopeful. Think it was probably more of an optical illusion than a horse running on.
If you like Dance Master you have to give a close look at Union Course. He ran wide last and figures to lose some ground again but hes capable of busting it up the rail.
Also Bailey moves from Dance Master to Private Vow and just handled Trippi Appeal who may not be that bad a horse. Disco lost to him after a tough break. Disco\'s been troubled but he even gives me ibby jeebies.
They can improve so quickly at this age is the thing. Most haven\'t set their performance levels. Depending on odds I\'m probably inclined to pass this one.
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Well I guess India was a pretty bad even money shot. :)
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another hennessy fill with soundness issues, or another hennessy filly with distance limitations? i didn\'t think she would have a problem with 7f. i\'m guessing there is some physical problem there. either way, too much risk at those odds.
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I tend to agree with you. She was so bad it\'s hard to think the distance and quality of competition was the problem. Something must have happened to her. Either way, I think she was a highly suspect odds on favorite at 7F in a race where she figured to take some heat early.
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india misjudged the break and banged into the gate. she also broke a bit slow when the gates opened. i\'ll give her another shot before i call her a weak hearted sprinter.
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There is no such thing as an impressive maiden win. India broke through the gate and had to battle early. Too much juice most likely Todd.
Thought the Ghostzapper odds on Folkare were fair, but wish the Anees horse had held on for 2nd.
Liked Private Vow the most, but no one was fooled by the quality of that Allowance win. Watch for Disco\'s son when that horse catches a break.
If that course is as soft tomorrow anticipate a scratch by Frankel in the Atto Mile.
Just finished listening to an interview of Lukas. He gave a great interview even if a little self serving. He did say some interesting things unrelated to his accomplishments however.
One was the degree of cheating in the game. He\'s convinced these guys are ruining the game (lol) and if something isn\'t done about it from inside the Federal Authorities will.
He proposed any owner caught with a drugged horse endure a 120 day suspension. Though quizzically he was against the horse goes to jail solution. If the owner is suspended shouldn\'t ALL of his horses be in Jail? Maybe it was the single horse in jail he disagreed with and the interviewer didn\'t follow up with him enough. I liked Lukas\'s idea.
He also said he is against lasix and when \"forced\" to use it he only gives half doses. I\'m in agreement. If the game is going drug free, lets go drug free.
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Looking over this race, seems to be wide open. Only two horses in here has number\'s that\'s not fast enough. With all that said, I\'ll take ROYAL REGALIA 6-1 looks to pair up the 2.2, this might be a race where you could see a horse like MOBIL come running and hit the board at long odds and I wouldn\'t go \"how in the hell did that horse come in\" The fav. LEROIDES...does looks solid to run the 1.2, the weight and ground save might just cancel each other out. KING of H. nice hard hitting horse, my question is why the time off?? Unless Neil was planning it this way. You could make a case for a few more in this race.
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kev,
i read somewhere that this has been drysdale\'s plan since the beginning of the summer..... the soft turf makes this race a bit more interesting. not sure you can just assume a run in the \"1\" to \"2\" range out of the two favorites over the heavy going, especally at low odds. having a tough time coming up with anything interesting though.
although......
the 6th went in 1:47.1. not real fast for those horses over that course, but not slow either.
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I respectfully disagree with Classhandicapper here. I like the ROTW analysis and believe today is a great day to go against Frankel\'s horse. Being 8 of 10 with one second against many graded stakes horses is irrelevant, and thinking like that will get him overbet. To me, a horse\'s speed and the likely number he is going to run is a lot more important than his \'boxscore,\' and I am trying to take advantage of people who are betting things like a boxscore. While I agree he normally gets a good rail trip, I am not so sure about today. First, all those 1w 1w trips are a significant edge compared to a 1w trip, so his favorable running style is not as large an advantage today around one turn as it normally is around two. Second, it looks to me like there might be a bit of speed up front and he might not be as comfortable on the front end as normal. It is a very big difference when a horse is accustomed to getting a lead on the rail off a short run to the first turn of a two turn race where riders are thinking about conserving their horses. Here, these guys are gunning down a long straight away before the only turn in the race. The horses coming out of this type of race (one turn) are a lot more accustomed to what this takes whereas Frankel\'s horse is going to find himself in a new situation. If he finds himself behind horses going into the turn, then he will either have to go wide or face traffic. Also, that 5 lbs extra (or more against the others) is going to take a toll. I am also iffy on his pattern. I am definitely going to try to beat this horse today. King of Happiness does look very good. My problem is that I am worried about some of the others in here as well running nice ones. It would suck to beat that Brazilian horse and still lose because one of those others gets up. Today would be a great day to be able to access betfair and take people\'s action on Frankel\'s horse.
Anyway, good luck to all, and kudos on a good ROTW analysis.
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I actually agree with the Clown. Sophia\'s Choice is dangerous here, and I will be covering with that horse (although KoH will be my key).
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well, i still make leroid the best here, but 3/5? hoping pval can save all the ground with KOH. at 7-1, he\'s my key.
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\"I respectfully disagree with Classhandicapper here. I like the ROTW analysis and believe today is a great day to go against Frankel\'s horse. Being 8 of 10 with one second against many graded stakes horses is irrelevant, and thinking like that will get him overbet.\"
Everyone disagrees with me about practically everything. Even when they agree it upsets them. :)
He may be overbet (I know I\'m not betting him), but I\'m of the opinion that boxscores actually do matter. It\'s not the boxscore per se, but what that boxscore tells us about the horse. I\'m of the view that ability is not fully expressed by speed figures. That is, when horses accumulate records loaded with wins and seconds, they generally possess a few intangibles of ability that allow them to beat horses with similar figures (and a worse record) more often than the small edge in figures would indicate. That goes double on turf where there are plenty of close finishes decided by that liitle extra gameness, kick etc...
All that said, I think his biggest vulnerability is related to something no one else has brought up. The Breeders Cup Mile is the main objective for this horse -not the Atto Mile. Frankel is no dummy. He\'s not going to sacrifice the latter to win this. So the horse may not even be 100% today.
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A to Z is the other horse that looks dangerous to me Don\'t think his form is as spotty as it looks.
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I hear you Class...that many wins in a row deserve respect and you have to ask yourself was he running within himself?
That last Saratoga race was a course record I understand and coming back rather quick and the turf will definitely have some give to it.
He shortens up and only puts on 2 more lbs. Definitly not sure about this one, plus I suck at turf, but think hes liable to be entertained early by a few. We\'ll see. But this is a spot where you have to take aim. Especially as close as that Grade I at Hollywood was to A & Z.
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yea, just a slow horse who got another perfect trip.
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classhandicapper Wrote:
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> The Breeders Cup Mile is the main objective
> for this horse -not the Atto Mile. Frankel is no
> dummy. He\'s not going to sacrifice the latter to
> win this. So the horse may not even be 100% today.
A million is a million, doesn\'t matter which race he wins, though he\'ll probably win them both.
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Well MOBIL came in 2nd, so I won\'t be saying \" How in the hell he come in\" This was so wide open, MOBIL had a 1.2 equal to the fav. along with many other\'s in here, I didn\'t get to see to race, how much did the fav. win by??
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kev,
he destroyed the field. good call on mobile. KOH sat just off the very fast pace, and he paid the price. can\'t blame pval though, he was up against a better animal. 3-5, short rest, heavy turf, 124 lbs - not my knid of play, but that was one impressive performance by the winner.
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Its not the Frankel Horse winning that hurts. The probability existed he would.
What hursts is not having a clue down the line.
Lets see the King of Animals win against some of the top Europeans from a poor draw in the B.C. Mile before everyone gets exited. Those fractions were good, but good horses will run quick on that layout. Michael D. appears right the Turf course was getting quicker late, but no one else ran much of a race judging by the 6th.
He paid 3.30
Just more reason to beat him at Belmont.
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beyer,
A million is a million, but personally I\'d rather say I won the BC when it\'s time to sell him or set his stud price. In recent years I\'ve noticed that some trainers don\'t send their horses out 100% in the race just prior to the BC. I guess it\'s an effort to get them to peak on the big day instead. I\'m paying closer attention to it this year.
This was a huge win (way better than I expected). If the figure comes back huge, I think some people will argue that it was mistake to have him this wound up before the BC. They\'ll be looking for a bounce. If he wasn\'t 100%, that was a pretty frightening performance. :)
I love the Europeans on the turf every year and have cashed many nice tickets over the years, but I think you can argue that Leroy at a Mile and Shakespeare (if he gets another race under his belt and can get the 12F) present two tough customers for them to beat.
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Clown,
Do you realize that every time a horse wins, you write the same thing. Let\'s see him do it without an easy lead. Let\'s see him do it on a track was that wasn\'t biased. Let\'s see him do it carrying 140 pounds like Dr. Fager. Not its Let\'s see him do it from the outside post against Europeans.
Did you see the race today, or are you blind? He won by the length of the stretch. You wanted to bet against him before the race, now afterwards it is your usual \"probability existed he would win\". You should try your probability posts before the race.
Class,
Here it goes again. I hate to agree with Class, but..... It is obvious when you watches races like this one today that figures don\'t capture the story. At the weights Leroides was supposed to be about the same level as several others. He couldn\'t have won any easier. So, did every horse in the race \"x\" today? I doubt it. Did Leroides get 5 lengths faster today? Probably not. Maybe he was within himself in many of those previous wins? I don\'t know. But I can tell you that I saw enough today that tells me I am not going to make a living betting against this horse. Let others line up and bet against him again in the BC, I give up on chasing him.
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Sounds like he might have ran a new top.
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JIMBO,
\"Here it goes again. I hate to agree with Class, but..... \"
I may be a pain the \"XXX\" sometimes, but there\'s no law that says you have to hate agreeing with me on the occasions I say something that makes sense. :)
Personally, I think this was probably a new top, but I think you summarized it better than I did. Horses rarely accumulate records like this unless they have a \"little extra\" in the tank. IMO, there are intangibles to ability that seperate horses that look similar on speed that are best not ignored even if they tend to be overbet sometimes. Those intangibles are what is commonly referred to as class by old fashioned guys like me.
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jimbo66 Wrote:
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> Clown,
>
> Do you realize that every time a horse wins, you
> write the same thing. Let\'s see him do it without
> an easy lead. Let\'s see him do it on a track was
> that wasn\'t biased. Let\'s see him do it carrying
> 140 pounds like Dr. Fager. Not its Let\'s see him
> do it from the outside post against Europeans.
Well, Jim that field was sitting on bounces in all candor. Don\'t you ever review the races? Or do you just look at the margin, the boxscore and the previous numbers for the winner to determine how good a race he ran?
Lets look at the horses behind The Fastest Horse in the World:
Do you think King of Happiness ran his 1.5 from essentially the rail? Because if you did the others ran very very fast races. In fact Leroid would be at about Negative 6 if he did...lol I know, you think it was.
Do you think Vanderilin comin off a 2 point plus Career top paired or went forward? He was only beaten 2 lengths for second. Or do you think he regressed significantly?
What about Le Cinquieme Essai coming off a 3 point Career top? Check your sheets. Which way did he go?
How about Sophias Prince?
Mobil might have run his 1.5 with ground loss. He might also have run his 3.1, haven\'t tried to figure it precisely..you know why? I don\'t have to..lol
Add to that the fact the 6th race animals time was the equal of the Atto and you have a mirage. The field collapsed again. But you dont\' know that. Thats ok, I won\'t hold you against you. You bet that Leroid next time ok. Bet with both hands.
>
> Did you see the race today, or are you blind? He
> won by the length of the stretch. You wanted to
> bet against him before the race, now afterwards it
> is your usual \"probability existed he would win\".
> You should try your probability posts before the
> race.
Addressed the optical illusion already. I bet against him very carefully and would have lost regardless. My horses all bounced. I did post pre race it was a race to be worried about. I was worried. Not so much because Leroid is a lot of horse.
One last thing. Probability is a mathematical term. There was a certain probability Leroid would win. It was a high probability. He was still worth a wager against there.
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I think the Atto is unbettable. It\'s hard for me to get negative on Leroy given that he\'s 8-10 on turf with 1 second against many solid Graded Stakes horses. I think the difference between him and some of the others is greater than the small edge in speed figures indicates. Plus, he\'s got the perfect style to get consistently easy trips. He should get another one from the rail. The only knock I can find is that that last field wasn\'t particularly good and he got a very easy trip on the lead. So he may not have been as sharp there as he was earlier in the year. Even that\'s a stretch though because you could argue that his last race was a prep for this and the BC.
Class, it is refreshing to read herein something about the \"sport\" of racing, as opposed to the \"beating the favorite\" drone.
Sure, everybody wants to be able to beat the favorite to cash a ticket, but somewhere along the line it is important to recognize the real reason this sport exists.
Okay, I am now going to put on the pith helmut I bought at a flea market yesterday in suburban Lexington, so go ahead and hurl on me.
Oh, yeah, I arranged a deal for Richard and Audrey Haisfield of Midway, Kentucky to acquire Leroy for stud, to stand alongside Medaglia d\'Oro, which I bought for them last year. They have two viable stallion prospects for their new bluegrass farm.
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I\'m guessing the place horse ran a secondary top and lost alot of ground while
the winner ran a slight top ( less than a pt ) + got a rail trip .
I had a flyer to win on Mobil , passed on the exacta w/ the prohibrative price on top .
Perhaps I should consider using place bet\'s though on aprx 30-1 + up , when appropriate ...
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Reviewing the ATTO ROTW sheets, a reasonably good field, Perfect Drift fits in the BC Mile. He has numbers as good as Leroy and others in the field.
I\'ll quietly beat my drum for him, lol. He can\'t win the Classic....
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Dear Mr. Irwin,
I plead guilty of contributing to the \"beating the favorite\" drone. I have no interest in getting into anything that requires a participant to wear a pith helmet, so please take the following remarks in the friendly way they are intended. Also, since you have identified yourself here, I should point out to you that we know people in common. My cousin knows you well and speaks very highly of you. Thus, I am not interested in creating any animosity. Your points are interesting ones, and I would like to address them.
I respectfully suggest it is not right to hint that people who enjoy talking about handicapping and betting (or looking for ways to go against popular opinion in horseracing) somehow do not recognize or appreciate the sport. I think whether a person enjoys betting favorites or enjoys betting against favorites (or doesn\'t even enjoy betting at all) has no bearing on such a person\'s recognition of the sport. If everybody must share the same view in order to appreciate or recognize the sport, that strikes me as a pretty boring sport (closer to watching a performance rather than a contest). Although there is a lot about Classhandicapper I do not respect or agree with, I agree that he shares with most, if not all, on this board a love of the sport.
Getting to the real reason this sport exists, as you mention, is a very interesting question. I think the historical roots are probably pretty well explored and not open to question. However, the reason the current version of the sport is sustained is a very important question that the horseracing establishment needs to think about and address if they want to continue into the future. Since I love the sport, I sincerely hope it is sustained and hope that the racing community works jointly towards that end. I do not think that handicapping dialogs on bulletin boards such as this one do damage to the sustainability of horseracing, and, in fact, I would suggest they help the sport.
I personally thought the dialog on the board regarding the Atto Mile was refreshing (especially in light of other things that also appear on this board from time to time). I even thought the Clown offered a valuable insight. I do include Classhandicapper\'s contribution in this particular instance, but, normally, it is impossible to engage Classhandicapper in any sort of dialog because either he has no ears or chooses not to use them.
In this case, CH concisely explained the mainstream reasons to bet on Leroidesanimaux (BRZ) which provided a very good counterpoint for discussion. In addition to pointing out (as the ROTW had already done quite well) that there existed another side to the story from what appeared in the superficial analysis, I was trying to point out that it is exactly these sorts of differences of opinion (perfectly illustrated by CH) that give rise to distorted odds which provide opportunity.
I suspect this is a good example of why Ragozin entitled his book \"The Odds Must be Crazy.\" I have not read the book in a long time, but I do recall a tale of him (or else his father) making a healthy score on Dark Star against Native Dancer in the KY Derby using the same logic at issue here. Now I would not accuse Ragozin or his father of not appreciating or giving good recognition to the sport because he profited from Native Dancer\'s loss or may have been rooting against Native Dancer. (I recognize that the Derby in question was a roughly run race and that is a shame - especially given Native Dancer\'s ultimate boxscore, but that does not mean that the people who bet on, or rooted for, Dark Star were bad people or did not love the sport or did not make an intelligent bet).
Since Le Roi was bet down to 65 cents, clearly the crowd favored the superficial story over other competing explanations. For some of us, this created a pleasing opportunity described above. Even though I lost (in fact, I was soundly trounced), I enjoyed betting on the race. People who bet on analyses such as LeRoi presented in the Atto must win on such analyses many times for it to be worth their while. For me, I can afford to lose 80% of the time on the analysis I used and still come out well as long as I am hitting 1 in 5. I view this as a textbook example betting correctly but still losing. Anybody who thinks that is not possible does not have a good understanding of horseracing. For the people who were backing Leroidesanimaux (BRZ), they should be happy that people like me existed as the $3.30 would have been less without us.
An important aspect to all of this is the odds being offered by the crowd. Despite what I said in my earlier post in response to Classhandicapper, I do think there are times where a \'boxscore\' analysis may be very valuable. For example, a lot of times the speed figures may indicate that a race is very even yet the crowd favors a particular horse. I have seen many times in such a situation where the crowd overlooks a horse with good figures and a good boxscore (usually this occurs when that boxscore has been run up at a place foreign or obscure), and, in these cases, the boxscore can become a valid basis for selecting a horse.
What I do not think makes sense is to say a 3-5 shot is hard to go against because he is \"11-8-1-0.\" The times I think it is hard to bet against a 3-5 shot are when he is clearly the fastest horse in the race by a comfortable margin. I expect 3-5 shots to have something on their form that makes the crowd want to make them 3-5 -- a strong boxscore can often produce such an inefficiency in my opinion. Let us say the odds were 5-1 for leRoi and 3-5 on KoH, in such a situation, I would not have had any problem switching my bets around on the same analysis of the race. I would not, however, say I was betting on LeRoi because his boxscore was so good. I would be betting on him because he is the same speed as Koh and, even if there were trip, pattern, and weight concerns, the 5-1 makes up for it.
Finally, I think the Atto was an excellent ROTW because it showed that even when on the pages of the DRF and in popular opinion a horse may seem overwhelming, there can be intelligent reasons to go against the flow. Just because the results came out the other way does not invalidate this. I am sorry you found the discussion boring or displeasing somehow, but to me it was healthy dialog that people can learn from. Maybe others disagree with me, and I should be going long on pith helmets. In any event, in my view, none of this requires any animosity, and it can all be discussed maturely and amicably.
Respectfully Submitted,
SoCalMan2
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Barry,
The real reason why this sport exists is because people bet on it. Hate to say it, but there\'s not enough interest out there to keep this game going without the action - not even close. As for Leroi - congrats on recognizing his brilliance and arranging the stud deal. He\'s a great animal. I hope we see a lot more like him down the road.
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So Cal Man,
With all due respect, I don\'t think you understand what I am saying. I\'ll take a crack at it. You will probably not agree with me, but at least you will understand what I am sayng.
First off, I didn\'t think Leroy should be bet because he was 8-10 on turf. Nor did I say he was deserving of being a 3-5 shot. I said the difference between him and the other horses with similar speed figures was larger than the figures indicated. I still think that. Now even more so.
There are people that think that speed figures alone tell you everything about a horse\'s performance and ability. This board is inhabited by many such handicappers. I\'m not one of them. I think speed figures are an indispensible part of evaluating a horse\'s performance and ability (that\'s why I use them), but not the whole story.
Obviously, you know I also look at things like pace, bias, etc... but that\'s not what I was referring to here. I was referring to the things that seperate horses that are less tangible than how fast a final time they run.
I think most handicappers would agree that horses with equal speed figures often have varying degrees early speed, acceleration, stamina, closing kick, determination, competitiveness, reserve racing energy, etc.... Even if you even partially agree, that\'s OK.
I have yet to find a way to mathematically measure all these intangibles even though some of them can be gleaned from the PPs and by actually watching the horses run. I think these intangibles are very important among horses with otherwise similar speed figures. What I also believe strongly is that as you move up the class ladder, not only do horses generally run faster, they also tend to possess greater quantities of these intangibles (though each horse has different qualities in different degrees).
Horse races are not sprints where every horse is running full out all the way on a straightaway. Races develop. In part, horses use these intangibles to get position, maintain position, dart through openings, duel off competitors, sustain their bid longer, run a faster pace, repulse a bid, etc...
I noticed something over the years. Horses that had accumulated outstanding records against equal or higher quality horses than their opponents (like Leroy) tended to vastly outperform horses with similar speed figures but inferior records against inferior horses (in terms of winning more often).
I think superior records like these are \"very basic\" way of telling you that a horse probably has more of the intangibles in greater quantities than his opponenets. (VERY BASIC)
They have a tad more acceleration, stamina, determination, etc... and/or have earned their figures against horses with more of those qualities than their opponents. In the old days they used to call it class. I think it matters. It\'s that little bit extra in the tank that allows one horse to outgame, outkick, outposition, duel off, etc... another horse and get the job done more often.
It\'s similar to a semi-pro ERA not being the same as a major league ERA and why I\'d rather have Michael Jordan shooting the game wining shot than a statistically better outside shooter from some college team that had never faced the heat of an NBA final. Intangibles matter.
As far as betting goes, I couldn\'t really tell you what the appropriate values were in this case. \"Maybe\" they were closer than the odds. I didn\'t bet Leroy to win at that price (I did bet him to place at 2.80 though :).
What I am saying is that if you went into the race thinking Leroy and a bunch of the others were equal because they had equal speed figures you were alomst certainly mistaken. It doesn\'t matter if Leroy was overbet to win or not. What is important is that a handicapper actually assess the probabilties of a horse winning correctly (or at least close) otherwise you will bet a lot of horses that you think are overlays that are NOT!
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Barry,
The tenor of your post is a race thats about to occur. That the race is \"imminent\". I noticed the time of your Post was 10:18 PM Sunday. Its considered bad form to Past Post here Barry.
I\'d offer one other insight in the event a technical glitch allowed your post to drop to the board post race or post virus check or you got busy trying to buy a prospective stakes winner before you eventually sent it. I\'d be very very leery of buying Frankel horses for stud. Frankel horses are not running on their own innate ability. Just ask his vet. A portfolio of Frankel stud horses is certainly a bigger gamble than a flyer to bet Leroid.
Irwin Wrote:
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> > I think the Atto is unbettable. It\'s hard for me
> to get negative on Leroy given that he\'s 8-10 on
> turf with 1 second against many solid Graded
> Stakes horses. I think the difference between him
> and some of the others is greater than the small
> edge in speed figures indicates. Plus, he\'s got
> the perfect style to get consistently easy trips.
> He should get another one from the rail. The only
> knock I can find is that that last field wasn\'t
> particularly good and he got a very easy trip on
> the lead. So he may not have been as sharp there
> as he was earlier in the year. Even that\'s a
> stretch though because you could argue that his
> last race was a prep for this and the BC.
>
> Class, it is refreshing to read herein something
> about the \"sport\" of racing, as opposed to the
> \"beating the favorite\" drone.
>
> Sure, everybody wants to be able to beat the
> favorite to cash a ticket, but somewhere along the
> line it is important to recognize the real reason
> this sport exists.
>
> Okay, I am now going to put on the pith helmut I
> bought at a flea market yesterday in suburban
> Lexington, so go ahead and hurl on me.
>
> Oh, yeah, I arranged a deal for Richard and Audrey
> Haisfield of Midway, Kentucky to acquire Leroy for
> stud, to stand alongside Medaglia d\'Oro, which I
> bought for them last year. They have two viable
> stallion prospects for their new bluegrass farm.
-
Right on Chuck,
Le Roi\'s testies are like prunes from the steroids.
-
Clown,
In the first paragraph, Barry is just retyping what Class wrote before the race.
He isn\'t guilty of bad form because of past posting, he is guilty of bad form for style of posting. he should have attributed the quote to Class.
Interesting that you would be the past post police Clown. At one point there was a suggestion of naming the redboard room the chuckles the clown room..... :)
By the way, point taken on your Atto Mile. You are correct that it would seem a lot of horses bounced and several were coming off of tops, so it wasn\'t unlikely. I struggle the most with what happened to the horse I bet, King of Happiness. He didn\'t have a \"bounce line\" and was pretty consistent. I guess he didn\'t adjust well from running on the very hard turf courses in California, to the yielding course at Woodbine. I thought before the race as a son of Spinning World, who I believe was a top class Euro runner, he would probably apprecite the soft turf and might even move up.
My point clown was not that Leroides ran a negative 6, it is that you have a habit of denigrating top performances of horses. Ghostzapper, Bellamy Road, Leroides and others. Leroides ran a very big race yesterday. How big, I don\'t know, but very big. You want to bet against him again in 6 six weeks, go ahead. I\'ve had my fill betting against him in 5 races of his streak. No mas for me. (that doesn\'t mean betting on him at a short price in the BC, but rather skipping the race and watching).
Jim
-
Could be miff, though hes not even running that fast. That Atto was a field collapse. Provided they get their environment the Eurohorses are gonna trash our milers.
Between cleaning the drugs out of a juiced horse and the fact they carried him faster and further than he actually had in him, its hard to believe the juiced are going to be great Stud animals. One will eventually come along with enough genetic ability to get the job done. But the same is true of unraced horses that wind up as dog food.
We\'ve got the first of the juicers in the Stud barn now. How are they doing?
Aptitude is siring maiden claiming winners. (Granted he deserves next year to judge. But the start is slow)
Left Bank is dead.
miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Right on Chuck,
>
> Le Roi\'s testies are like prunes from the
> steroids.
-
>Add to that the fact the 6th race animals time was the equal of the Atto and >you have a mirage.
How reliable is the time for the sixth because two intermediate call times are missing, (jumping from 4f to final time), is this normal. The winner of the sixth was 15L behind Leroi at halfway yet as you point out finished with an impressive time in comparison to the Atto. Hard to imagine.
-
Good observation, was noticed here as well.
If the timer was off, was it off for other races?
The finishing positions say bounce for the majority of the field.
The time of the sixth says the Atto was merely a good race, not a great one.
The Turf course was drying out quickly. Post 6th the Turf should have been faster per the trend. The condition changed from Soft to Yielding for the Atto. It certainly wasn\'t a bog.
Leroid is a very juicy target.
P.Eckhart Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> >Add to that the fact the 6th race animals time
> was the equal of the Atto and >you have a
> mirage.
>
> How reliable is the time for the sixth because two
> intermediate call times are missing, (jumping from
> 4f to final time), is this normal. The winner of
> the sixth was 15L behind Leroi at halfway yet as
> you point out finished with an impressive time in
> comparison to the Atto. Hard to imagine.
-
Class: you are correct in your position on speed figures. Anybody who tries to build a stable of racehorses selected strictly on numbers always winds up on the short end of the stick. Numbers are great and an important tool, but there are other elements more important.
Miff: Leroy\'s nuts are bigger than your head. The reproductive vet from Texas who ultra-sounded them said they are among the largest he\'s ever seen. You sound like a guy who has heard a lot about steroids, but not actually eye-balled many horse testes close up.
Hey, I am not going to be put in a position of defending Bobby Frankel, so don\'t put me there, thank you very much.
This is one special horse, anyway you look at it.
And on a final note, steroids do not do nearly as much for equines as they do for people. Horses are already born athletic, they don\'t require much physical help, as do humans.
The way trainers cheat with horses is to make them less tired, so they can carry their speed longer.
-
Barry,
I have owned and been around horses for 40 years in New York so I know a bit about testes(better you eye ball them CLOSE up) and my comment about Leroi was \"tongue in cheek\".Surely you are aware that Bobby Frankel\'s horses were an automatic toss shipping into New York in the early- mid 90\'s before he had his EPIPHANY and woke up a super trainer, east coast also.
Regarding Leroi, he\'s a beast and I hope he does well in the breeding shed and whatever Frankel races him with(if anything) does not interfere.Many horsemen believe that steroids DO help a horse but of course not nearly as much as illegal blood dope and illegal pain stuff.
-
\"And on a final note, steroids do not do nearly as much for equines as they do for people. Horses are already born athletic, they don\'t require much physical help, as do humans.\"
I\'m sorry Barry, but this is just a totally ignorant statement.
I had a crash course in steroids when I had to use them to treat my scarred cornea. They have many properties that you are obviously not aware of. If your point is that steroids may not be as big an issue as some other things, I would tend to agree with you. But as a general comment you are way off here.
Steroids are incredibly powerful drugs, and it really depends on what you are trying to do with them and what kind of problem you are trying to solve. They can do PLENTY for equines. In fact, steroids are being incorporated into more and more medical and veterinary treatments every day, precisely because they are effective and have many properties that the general public may not be aware of.
Also, having spent some time around horses, I can tell you that plenty of them are born clumsy and can\'t get out of their own way, just like people, so you are off base with this \"born athletic\" thing too.
HP
-
Barry,
I think Leroi may be the best US based turf miler since Lure. I can\'t recall any others that have made a similar impression or put togther a similar string of performances. The Europeans are going to have to send over a tiger to beat him. Good Luck.
-
Well first off, I owe Barry an apology. The quote did come directly from Classhandicapper\'s post so it was obviously a cut and paste job and NOT a Past Post post...lol I apologize. (Thanks for pointing out my poor reading retention Jimbo) The facts lead me to believe Team Valor has visited the TGraph lunatic board.
I perused the Team Valor site and was impressed with the South African purchase plan. In summary it looks like purchasing horses with pedigrees less dominated by American Sires that pass infirmities for reasonable prices and racing them where they were bred until the best rise to the top and their ability justifies the cost of shipping them to the U.S. There were some nice looking horses in that bunch.
Barry\'s point about the mojo protecting the horse from fatigue are in line with my observations. I\'ve not had the chance to talk to trainers that use the juice. I wonder if Barry could enlighten us where his conclusion in that regard comes from.
Leroid is obviously a horse with talent. Many times the B.C. Mile is won with 1\'s and he is capable of that. Until TGraph comes back with the hand times from the Canadian Bell and Atto mile it would be reckless to send in the future bets on Leroid. Hes no value anyway. The bet is to beat him. Dubawi is a nice miler. A concern with him was the skip of a big race because they feared the ground was too firm. The race went in 1.37 Could have been firm ground, long grass...i\'m not a Euro race maven.
As far as the figures. Fast figures that are accurate are clearly the number 1 factor to consider in racing horses or building a stable. The problem is no one sells the best figure horses. Just try buying Saint Liam or Afleet Alex NOW.
Barry, I know the owner of Hill n Dale farm and the new owners of Stonefarm have at least been partners and perhaps are friends. Why would the owner of Hill n Dale sell Megadalia d Oro before his first foals have even hit the track? (I take that back theres good reasons to sell before the first foals hit the track. I\'m not even sure Megas have hit the ground though, why sell now?) Mega was one of those that seemed to run a little farther and faster than he had a right. Certainly one of the top suspects for the mojo factor.
I summarized Barry Irwin Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Class: you are correct in your position on speed
> figures. Anybody who tries to build a stable of
> racehorses selected strictly on numbers always
> winds up on the short end of the stick. Numbers
> are great and an important tool, but there are
> other elements more important.
>
> Miff: Leroy\'s nuts are bigger than your head. The
> reproductive vet from Texas who ultra-sounded them
> said they are among the largest he\'s ever seen.
> You sound like a guy who has heard a lot about
> steroids, but not actually eye-balled many horse
> testes close up.
>
> Hey, I am not going to be put in a position of
> defending Bobby Frankel, so don\'t put me there,
> thank you very much.
>
> This is one special horse, anyway you look at it.
>
> And on a final note, steroids do not do nearly as
> much for equines as they do for people. Horses are
> already born athletic, they don\'t require much
> physical help, as do humans.
>
> The way trainers cheat with horses is to make them
> less tired, so they can carry their speed longer.
-
jimbo66 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Clown,
>
> In the first paragraph, Barry is just retyping
> what Class wrote before the race.
duly noted and I apologized.
>
> He isn\'t guilty of bad form because of past
> posting, he is guilty of bad form for style of
> posting. he should have attributed the quote to
> Class.
>
> Interesting that you would be the past post police
> Clown. At one point there was a suggestion of
> naming the redboard room the chuckles the clown
> room.....
I\'d consider it an honor, the thing is the couple times I got in trouble over it were on races I either didn\'t win or broke even upon.
> By the way, point taken on your Atto Mile. You
> are correct that it would seem a lot of horses
> bounced and several were coming off of tops, so it
> wasn\'t unlikely. I struggle the most with what
> happened to the horse I bet, King of Happiness.
By all appearances King of Happiness was poised for a nice effort. His race is the key for determining what occurred in the Atto. Well, his race and the Canadian Bell.
> He didn\'t have a \"bounce line\" and was pretty
> consistent. I guess he didn\'t adjust well from
> running on the very hard turf courses in
> California, to the yielding course at Woodbine. I
> thought before the race as a son of Spinning
> World, who I believe was a top class Euro runner,
> he would probably apprecite the soft turf and
> might even move up.
>
> My point clown was not that Leroides ran a
> negative 6, it is that you have a habit of
> denigrating top performances of horses.
> Ghostzapper, Bellamy Road, Leroides and others.
I don\'t think Leroids figure is negative. Neither did I believe Bellamy\'s was a negative five. I think Bellamy ran approximately a negative 1 that day.
I\'m gonna get in trouble if I belabor Ghostzapper again, but he was no better than Saint Liam at 9 marks and that Lone Star B.C. was as much an optical illusion as Bellamy\'s Wood and Leroids Atto.
> Leroides ran a very big race yesterday. How big,
> I don\'t know, but very big. You want to bet
> against him again in 6 six weeks, go ahead. I\'ve
> had my fill betting against him in 5 races of his
> streak. No mas for me. (that doesn\'t mean
> betting on him at a short price in the BC, but
> rather skipping the race and watching).
Don\'t get me wrong. Its not gonna be a Class A bet, but depending upon the field I\'m gonna take my shot at him. He owes me. I\'ll check what Class says on the race though, hes shied away from the Atto and Penn Derby on class and turned out he was correct. I wish I\'d listend to him on the Penn Derby...lol
-
classhandicapper Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Barry,
>...
> The Europeans are going to
> have to send over a tiger to beat him. Good Luck.
Not necessarily. Leroi was Intl. rated 117, post Atto he\'ll be moved up to around 127, which is huge. However, he *may* simply have finally found his ground at Woodbine, and could revert to 117 on firm ground. Euros could cover a 117 horse on fast ground, no tiger required.
-
\"The facts lead me to believe Team Valor has visited the TGraph lunatic board.\" -- Chuckles the Clown 2
Chuckles,
You have posted on this board 47 times in September (I counted) so I guess that makes you some kind of charter lunatic!
This stat is even more incredible considering most of your posts are about how you don\'t agree with the TG figures for any number of races. I won\'t even begin to count the number of posts from certain other posters on this score (guess who?)...
It\'s almost as if the more people don\'t agree with the numbers or methodology or the \"importance\" of the numbers, the more they post! And they are also usually the LONGEST posts!
HP
-
HP Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> You have posted on this board 47 times in
> September (I counted) so I guess that makes you
> some kind of charter lunatic!
Some men count posts and ask \"Why\".......others post without reservation and respond \"why not\"?
Welcome to the lunatic club.
> This stat is even more incredible considering most
> of your posts are about how you don\'t agree with
> the TG figures for any number of races. I won\'t
> even begin to count the number of posts from
> certain other posters on this score (guess
> who?)...
I think you\'ll find that I dont contest well over 99.9% of TGraphs figures. I think what you\'ll find is the issue of a single figure here or there is raised repeatedly in heated debate.
Sometimes a horse is not as good as he looked, nor as bad as he looked. Thats why speed figures are important.
> It\'s almost as if the more people don\'t agree with
> the numbers or methodology or the \"importance\" of
> the numbers, the more they post! And they are
> also usually the LONGEST posts!
Tgraph has sound science and years of expertise behind them. When you take on one of their figures its not wise to merely state. \"They are wrong\"
>
> HP
>
-
Barry, Barry, Barry.
\"Anybody who tries to build a stable of racehorses selected strictly on numbers always winds up on the short end of the stick\".
There have been three times when I\'ve been involved in doing exactly that on any significant scale. The first two stables ended up finishing in the top ten in the country in wins. The third was Prestonwood, for whom I bought 23 horses, 13 of which won stakes, including Victory Gallop, Distorted Humor, and Da Hoss. Average cost of the 23 horses was something like 125k-- I think the data is still available in the horseman\'s section of this site. We are just starting to build that type of operation for Ro Parra, and so far have come up with GII winners Even The Score and Santana Strings.
I\'ve asked you this before, and you did not respond. You claim to have a better way to go, with Team Valor-- how about doing what I did, and give us a list of all the horses purchased on your recommendation over a 5 year period, what they cost, what they earned, and what they were worth upon retirement?
-
Chuckles,
Extrapolating from your September posting record, since Ghostzapper\'s BC Classic win about a year ago you have posted your opinion on Ghostzapper, his weakness at 10 maaaahhhhkkks, etc. at least 400 times (today too!).
Each successive race has no merit on its own, but merely constitutes an opportunity for you to return to your pentrating insights about Ghostzapper\'s faults. When the horse is dead you will probably stand on his grave yelling about 10 mahhhhks with the spit flying out of your mouth until they call horse graveyard security.
Does the expression \"fishwife\" mean anything to you? How about \"yenta?\" Are you a shut-in? Forgetting about the merits or lack thereof in your posts, how do you have the TIME to repeat yourself so many times?
HP
-
TGJB,
I don\'t have any experience buying horses, but I\'ve always thought there were two possibilities for finding \"signficant\" value.
1. Among claimers, based on par time figures at various tracks around the country, not all horses with similar claiming tags are equal. For example, some 10K claimers are vastly superior to others. It depends on the circuit. I think there may be ways to exploit that by moving the good 10K horses to the weaker circuits and running them for a higher tag and still having the best horse. One would also have to examine the comparative operating costs and purses etc..., but it\'s an obvious source of \"potential\" value.
2. Among higher quality horses on dirt, I would focus on overseas racing (the more remote the better) because few have speed figures to work with that can be compared to US figures and the classifications are even more difficult to make. On turf, regardless of what the speed figures say, IMO the major European turf racing lays over the American racing. I would focus my buys there and ship to the US.
In the US, everyone who is anyone is at least looking at the speed figures when buying and selling horses that have already run. I think the real value may be in stable management as in your recent purchase recommedation where you tried to exploit the weak older stakes horses in CA.
-
CH-- I gotta tell you, you are something else. You come across a dialogue between two guys who have won BC races, among other multiple GIs, you have no experience whatsoever, and you think the right thing to do is offer your opinion on buying horses? Do you have any idea what is involved? It ain\'t fantasy football.
To you and anyone else who puts up posts that are essentially about themselves-- I\'m just taking them down from now on. Fill your need for attention somewhere else.
I\'m going home, so you have a shot to get one to stay up overnight.
-
P. Eckhart,
\"Not necessarily. Leroi was Intl. rated 117, post Atto he\'ll be moved up to around 127, which is huge. However, he *may* simply have finally found his ground at Woodbine, and could revert to 117 on firm ground. Euros could cover a 117 horse on fast ground, no tiger required.\"
I haven\'t see the Timeform ratings for the top European milers yet, but according the Timeform/Beyer conversation chart I use (supplied by someone else that has researched it), a Beyer figure of 112 converts to about a 125 Timeform rating. Beyer gave Leroi a 114 for that last performance. I can\'t recall too many US turf milers that were winning consistently while putting up consistent 112s and 114s against the highest quality turf fields available like Leroi has Given that I think European turf racing is generally superior to US racing, I agree it\'s doable, but it\'s going to take a darn good one.
-
TGJB,
One doesn\'t have to be a participant in a business where most people lose a fortune (the only measurement of success I would be interested in) to notice that some owners/trainers have had some success doing certain things while most others have failed miserably.
Any overpaying money losing purchaser can win a Breeders Cup race if he wants to. Just ask any of the Skeiks.
I also don\'t see what the problem is with offering my insights into what seem like clear cut inefficiencies in a marketplace that one can observe by simply handicapping horses for 30 years. If there are details I\'m not familiar with that would make my observations either difficult or impossible to exploit/implement, a simple explanation from you would have been appreciated. That\'s where your expertise would come in. The rest is just your personal problem with me and your ego.
A certain owner for Bruce Levine seems to be having a little early success trying to exploit something similar to what I suggested about 10K claimers among higher priced claimers in CA and NY. There are very obvious inefficiences among claiming horses around the country.
You also don\'t have to be too sharp to see how European turfers tend to dominate similarly classed horses here and how certain trainers like Ron McAnally and others have been able to scoop up some amazing horses in Latin and South America (probably for WAY LESS than a horse of similar quality would have cost in the US).
The way to do well in any business or investment venture is to find hidden value. That much is universal regardless of whether you participate in that business or not. I don\'t see where the value is in knowing that a horse in the US ran fast when everyone else knows that too. I would never buy a horse that way.
I do see potential value in some of the things I have suggested and in stable management by someone like you.
-
CH-- what you were doing was listening to a conversation between Bill Parcells and Joe Gibbs about zone defenses, and then saying \"Well, here\'s what I think\".
What someone else would have done is either
a) say \"What do you think about this idea, guys\",or
b) say \"I\'ve noticed that Herm Edwards has had success with...\"
But not you. Because the posts are never about the subject, they are about you, and your endless, repetitive navel gazing.
-
TGJB:
In my neighborhood the only thing as bad as insulting someone\'s mother is calling them an omphaloskeptic. Expect the wrath of Class in retaliation.
-
Richie-- Amazon reports a run on dictionaries.
-
Who are Bill Parcels and Joe Gibbs?
-
Just to help those who don\'t have it in their dictionary:
Omphaloskepsis is a word you won\'t find in all dictionaries.
It refers to the practice of meditating while contemplating one\'s navel. I would venture to say there aren\'t many omphaloskeptics in your county or parish, unless of course there\'s some subculture you\'re not aware of.
Well Done Richie
-
TGJB,
Comparing yourself to Parcells and Gibbs is pretty comical coming from a guy who accuses me of being into myself.
The intention of the post was to offer an opinion on the subject of buying horses and to get feedback. I don\'t recall having a problem discussing things like that with Barry when I bought one through him a few years back. Opinions are only a problem on this board when then are mine and/or conflict with yours.
-
CH-- if I took the bait on that and used it as an excuse to start listing my credits I really would be into myself.
Do some homework.
-
Theres a certain amount of acumen that goes into buying a horse, but obviously on the results the edge even the best \"experts\" obtain is very slim indeed. Its more a matter of who loses less and thats a very unsatisfying way of measuring success. Lucky for the agents in these sales the buyers are prepared to lose money. The owner of Flower Alley picked his horse because the dam\'s name is Olivia and thats his daughters name. He should fire his bloodstock agents.
Since buying will always be a crapshoot regardless to whether you\'re Parcells or Gibbs it makes sense to craft a strategy for the purchase. Barry Irwin seems to be going overseas quite a bit and that appears very sound for a number of reasons. Tgraph approaches it from a small and developing race sample purchasing perspective. The difference probably being that pedigree is going to be less important in the one method and that has its pros and cons.
Both techniques are going to show better results than the bidding wars at Keeneland, guaranteed. Still in this area have to figure Class is almost as competent as many others in the field, especially if he can eyeball a horse and knows a bit about pedigree.
classhandicapper Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> TGJB,
>
> Comparing yourself to Parcells and Gibbs is pretty
> comical coming from a guy who accuses me of being
> into myself.
>
> The intention of the post was to offer an opinion
> on the subject of buying horses and to get
> feedback. I don\'t recall having a problem
> discussing things like that with Barry when I
> bought one through him a few years back. Opinions
> are only a problem on this board when then are
> mine and/or conflict with yours.
>
>
>
> Edited 1 times. Last edit at 09/22/05 04:09PM by
> classhandicapper.
-
CTC,
I don\'t think it\'s a total crapshoot if you make enough purchases over time to offset the luck factor - even though I agree that the expectation is highly negative to start with. Over time, the \"value\" of your purchases will be reflected in your results.
The real point is that it\'s not necessary to be able to pick the horses yourself or to have owned any in the past to recognize if the person you are working with is using a method or strategy that could lead to superior results.
The second point is that I could assemble 20 guys from my local OTB that haven\'t shaved in 6 days, own 1 pair of pants, and have worn the same shirt for the last 6 days that could put togther a portfolio of stakes horses if they had someone with deep enough pockets to back them. If you can read the DRF well and you buy a bunch of high quality horses, some of them are going to do great things even if you bring no value to the table.
-
CH-- the best thing is not that you have no idea what you are talking about, but that you have no idea that you have no idea, don\'t feel compelled to make any inquiries to find out, and would rather gaze at your belly button. You have absolutely no clue when it comes to talking about this stuff-- take it from a guy who has had more horses win stakes, and won more stakes, than most who are in the Hall of Fame. And done it with far fewer horses.
Yeah, all you have to do is ask some guys who they like, and throw money at it. Easy game.
FYI-- there have been two maiden winners sold for $2 million each this year so far. Unless you are dealing with someone totally financially irresponsible-- I\'m not, none of my clients have ever been, and very few outside the auction nuttiness are-- it\'s very, very difficult to get a good horse bought, especially once they are discernable to the general public, and you and your buddies at OTB. If you were asking questions instead of shooting off your mouth about stuff you are less knowledgable about than probably 50-100 people who read this board, many of whom post here, you might know that.
-
TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
>
> FYI-- there have been two maiden winners sold for
> $2 million each this year so far.
The above is very interesting. Are you saying you\'ve departed from your \"race under the belt\" technique and are advising on unraced purchases?
Could you inform the board regarding the names of these 2 million dollar purchases. I\'m sure others are curious besides myself.
-
I didn\'t advise on the purchases, and they weren\'t unraced, they were coming off maiden wins. I think one was India and the other Discreet Cat, last week, if I have the names right.
The only seven figure buy I was ever involved in was a filly by the name of Pompeii, who won a GI at Saratoga four days later, getting my client out in one start. Given today\'s market, that will end up changing.
-
TGJB,
It\'s hard to have a conversation with someone that is so biased against me that he almost never understands the point I am making.
The point was not that some bozos at OTB could make money at this game buying horses. If they did buy horses, they would get buried. That much is obvious. However, any bozo that can read the DRF can select some high quality horses. If they did, some of them would go on to accomplish great things despite the fact that they brought no value to the table at all in the selection process. That gets proven all the time when they let monkeys select stocks. Some of the stocks do great.
You can\'t measure overall success by pointing to a few individual successes. You measure the success of an operation by looking at the bottom line over a very long period of time and a lot of selections.
I\'d be happy to hear your views on how to find value in the horseracing business these days, but I wouldn\'t be impressed by something that is primarily geared towards speed figures. I am constantly seeing private purchases of horses that just ran fast (Discreet Cat is the latest example). That\'s telling me that lots of people are using speed figures as a primary criteria. So I suspect there is little value there. I also think there\'s more to measuring ability than just how fast a horse ran.
You\'ve made a lot of comments about management that made a lot of sense to me. I think it\'s pretty obvious you bring a lot of value to the table in that area. So if you please, why don\'t you explain to me where the value is in the selection process.
-
That\'s the first glimmer of understanding you have shown, and I have understood completely what you have said all the way-- you have had no idea what I was saying because until now you didn\'t ask questions.
Just for starters-- until a couple of months ago we had posted in the horsemen\'s section of this site a 5 year study that showed ALL the horses bought on our advice over that time period, what was paid for them, what they earned, and what they were sold/syndicated/disposed of for. That\'s the study I was referring to with Barry-- which you could have asked about, my mention was in the post that IMMEDIATELY PRECEDED YOUR FIRST ON THIS SUBJECT. But, noooo.....
We took the study down because it was dated, and didn\'t continue it because it took a tremendous amount of work (mine) to compile it. Results since then were not as phenomenal (again, 13 of 23 for Prestonwood won stakes, at an average cost of 125k-- also in that post), but better than most in this business.
You have absolutely no idea what\'s involved in \"using speed figures\" the way I do, or how it is similar (or not) to the way others use them (or don\'t). You have no idea what\'s involved in figuring out the level of ability of foreign horses, and whether their form will translate, how long it will take them to acclimate, what effects lasix will have, how much it will cost to ship them, etc.-- this is something Barry knows a lot about, he\'s a pro.
I\'m not going to start giving classes on what I do here-- it took me my entire adult life to learn my craft, and I\'m probably the best at buying horses in training that ever lived, certainly the best that\'s out there now in terms of return on the dollar, over a large sampling. I\'ve also done it without a \"move-up trainer. The game is tough enough, I\'m not going to create my own competition-- lots of people can bet on a horse, but only one can buy it, and lots of people will pay a lot crazier amounts for them than I will advise my clients to.
But here\'s what you can do. When we mention one that is ours in ROTW or elsewhere, ask what I liked about it that made us buy it. I\'ll tell you.
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Thanks
Discreet Cat was a Godolphin purchase. 2 big bills was cheap for them. They\'ve done it before. Street Cry, A Mabee horse I forget, theres been others.
That Matron with India out was very close to a real nice race for me. Not sure what will happen from here in. Tend to think a real good one doesn\'t toss it in like that.
Not sure Pompeii was an in the black filly if she cost a million. She died carrying her first foal per this story. She had a pretty bloodline.
http://www.pedigreequery.com/pompeii
TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I didn\'t advise on the purchases, and they weren\'t
> unraced, they were coming off maiden wins. I think
> one was India and the other Discreet Cat, last
> week, if I have the names right.
>
> The only seven figure buy I was ever involved in
> was a filly by the name of Pompeii, who won a GI
> at Saratoga four days later, getting my client out
> in one start. Given today\'s market, that will end
> up changing.
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TGJB,
Fair enough.
\"You have no idea what\'s involved in figuring out the level of ability of foreign horses, and whether their form will translate, how long it will take them to acclimate, what effects lasix will have, how much it will cost to ship them, etc.-- this is something Barry knows a lot about, he\'s a pro.\"
On this pont, I think I was clear that in order to implement some of the ideas I find interesting, one would have to know these sorts of things. (operating costs, purses, the physical condition of the horse etc... ) Someone else has to come to the table with that expertise.
Personally, I think I can judge ability better than most people that buy and sell horses. If I didn\'t think that, I wouldn\'t consider buying a horse unless I had total faith in someone else.
I\'ll ask my first question.
I don\'t know how much the buyer paid for Super Frolic and I don\'t expect you to tell me. I do recall the logic though. If I understood you correctly, you were looking for a horse that could compete in the CA stakes for older horses where the group seemed very weak for the class. That\'s the part that impressed me about the management skills because there was a logical and clear cut way to see where the excess value \"could be\".
On the flip side, I didn\'t think the horse was going to be very competitive out there despite figures that seemed to stack up OK. It\'s a point of disagreement on measuring ability we probably aren\'t going to get beyond.
On the flip side again, I think running him in the Hawthorn Gold Cup is brilliant. It\'s a 750K Grade II race being contested by a bunch of slow Grade 3 and listed stakes horses (other than Perfect Drift who is aiming for the BC). I make you the clear cut 2nd choice in that race and with PD you never know when he\'s going to disappoint.
So you can see why I like the management skills.
Why did you pick that horse?
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The price was 270. There were a lot of things I liked about this horse, I\'ve been chasing him for 2 years while being told he couldn\'t be bought, and raised the roof with a certain bloodstock agent when someone else ended up buying him. I sent him in again a couple of races later when he failed to win in two stake tries at Delaware, and the new owners were willing to take what they paid for him.
The sheet will be up in ROTW in a little while. I liked the good numbers at two, and the development since then-- he did enough at two (like win a stake) to help him as a stallion if enough happens, but he\'s also developed nicely since then, especially at 4, which makes me think he\'s not going to deteriorate quickly if he stays in one piece.
I liked the figures, and I liked the PERCENTAGE of good figures, and to a degree I liked the overall (as opposed to short term) pattern-- it was not perfect, but it was good enough, and you can\'t have everything. If he had been running those figures on a major circuit he would have cost twice as much-- in California, more than that.
He doesn\'t have a huge pedigree, and Pine Bluff is no help commercially, but the dam side is pretty good (even better if you look at figures, not black type), and there is enough there to let him stand somewhere, for something, if he does some good.
And yes, the division in California is weak-- and not so tough everywhere else. The fact that this horse had not ACCOMPLISHED much was a plus-- not only did it keep his price down, but it kept the weight he would carry in handicaps down.
Finally, this-- all figures are not created equal. When we bought Victory Gallop someone in Ragozin\'s office told Elliot Walden we were \"out of our ----- minds\". Accuracy aside, I keep tight control over our data-- unlike Ragozin, we don\'t let people just buy a sheet for any horse for $25, like one that is for sale. The idea is to keep value high for our clients by not having them compete with everyone in the world for the good ones. The good news is our record because of that, the bad news is that Friedman gets to claim they have all these \"clients\".
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Thanks. Great summary.
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TGJB,
The one thing that I find a bit perplexing is valuing the horse after it\'s racing career is over. No matter what is accomplished, that is in part dependent on the market conditions at the time. Yet there is no real intrinsic value that can be measured. Right now, I would guess the price/values are preposterous and that\'s why everyone that has accomplished anything is retired immediately to cash in. But if you pay up a little now based on the assumption of a market similar to what exists now, you could get burned badly even if the horse does well on the track. Bubbles eventually burst.
I think I\'d rather buy in a generally depressed market on the assumption of a continuation of that depressed market and then be pleasantly surprised if I get more on the back end than I hoped for because conditions changed for the better.
It almost has to be a mistake to say \"I want to buy horses\" and then just cope with whatever the conditions are. Too often you are going to overpay even if you have a few insights in to where some \"relative\" value might exist.
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Pine Bluff may not have burnt up the breeding shed, but hes far from a bust. He\'s gotten some good ones and has a solid pedigree. FuPeg picked some of it up on his backside and in my opinion thats why he was able to stay on some.
You\'re trying 10 marks again. There looks to be reason for confidence there. Theres good reason to believe he is very well placed. Good luck in the Gold Cup.
Think I see one of the strong points. That mare is was one of the better fillies I\'ve seen race. I cashed on her on numerous occasions. Shes been a heck of a producer also and that could bode well for that horse.
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That\'s a real nice horse and he looks spotted very well for saturday . I don\'t see Super Frolic losing that race . Sure Perfect Drift\'s got a couple back numbers but they are pretty remote by now and present form of PD leaves much to be desired . If Super Frolic is 3-1 this wknd he\'s a Super Value for bettors and for 270 , a big time Super Value overall for his connections . Win or lose though , this race sat must be viewed as a prep for the BC . Keep up the excellent work Jerry & Everybody over at TG ...
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If he runs a new top tomorrow, he most likely bounces on BC day, as his sheet pattern suggests. However, a zero or 1 may set him up better. I like him on Sat. Good Luck
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The thing thats notable about Super Frolic is that the horse looks to be a genuine tryer. The truly poor races involve switches to turf.
He may not care for off tracks either, but that sample is a little small to say with certainty.
Other than turf and off tracks, hes run remarkably consistent races and when he bounces, he doesnt bounce much at all. His usual \"off\" races are within a point or two with a couple that just make the 2 point \"bounce\" threshold.
You can see several lengths good for him off that last race in weight and likely trip. Its also quite possible this horse wants 10 marks and until the Pacific Classic he was not given a chance at it. A less sapping pace and the past performances lean positively for this horse to win this race.
Don\'t want to jinx him, but that last effort was in his best company ever and he ran hard and never gave up. Tgraph feels horses tend to run the same race when the figure is consistent, but a hard effort in the best company ever faced certainly could have this horse sitting upon fatigue issues. (In other words a buried good race and the off race is the next one to come) In opposition to that, he has a couple solid works since and his p.p.s dont show two straight dirt regressions. The horse tends to snap back X-O if you will.
The other issue is Perfect Dread of course. If he gets a clean trip, hes certainly run fast enough recently to be extremely tough here. He gets a couple lbs off and he likes it here.
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CTC,
\"The other issue is Perfect Dread of course. If he gets a clean trip, hes certainly run fast enough recently to be extremely tough here. He gets a couple lbs off and he likes it here.\"
Perfect Drift \"has had\" some difficulty finding the winners circle even when he\'s been spotted properly or was in the perfect position to close down a tired front runner. Heck even Borrego got by him. Plus, last year he ran a somewhat sub par race in his BC \"prep\". I would not be shocked if that happens again tomorrow. He may be the deserving favorite tomorrow because he does seem to be rounding into his best form and he has put up consistently good figures against some of the very best horses of the last few years, but IMO he\'s almost certainly going to be overbet. The key question is how do you construct a bet because I think it\'s unlikely for him to fire a complete dud in this field.
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I\'ve always believed Borrego was more horse than most. He hit the doldrums after the Ark, but Lava Man is a tough cookie and I think Borrego finally came around in the Classic. Granted pace helped.
Theres obviously no Borrego, Lava Man or Choctaw Nation in this race. (You could have caught them all at the finish line at Delmar with a small net)
Theres no St. Liam, Roses in May or Ghostzapper either, so Prefect Dread is well spotted. He was compromised in his large defeats by some of those others even if the problems didn\'t prevent him from winning.
Don\'t mean to imply he can\'t be beaten. Its a four horse race.
classhandicapper Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> CTC,
>
> \"The other issue is Perfect Dread of course. If he
> gets a clean trip, hes certainly run fast enough
> recently to be extremely tough here. He gets a
> couple lbs off and he likes it here.\"
>
> Perfect Drift \"has had\" some difficulty finding
> the winners circle even when he\'s been spotted
> properly or was in the perfect position to close
> down a tired front runner. Heck even Borrego got
> by him. Plus, last year he ran a somewhat sub par
> race in his BC \"prep\". I would not be shocked if
> that happens again tomorrow. He may be the
> deserving favorite tomorrow because he does seem
> to be rounding into his best form and he has put
> up consistently good figures against some of the
> very best horses of the last few years, but IMO
> he\'s almost certainly going to be overbet. The key
> question is how do you construct a bet because I
> think it\'s unlikely for him to fire a complete dud
> in this field.
>
>
>