Ask The Experts
General Category => Ask the Experts => Topic started by: richiebee on October 19, 2005, 04:03:33 PM
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Leafing through BC DRF PPs, I notice that the highest Beyer # in the Sprint was given to Wildcat Heir (117 in the Teddy Drone Stakes). LITF was given a 116 for his Calder race, Pomeroy ran a 114 in his Spa blowout win, Gygistar was given a 115 in winning the Westchester at a mile, and no other horse in the Sprint has run a Beyer above 110.
Will be interested to see the TG# for Wildcat Heir\'s race in the Teddy Drone.
Here\'s the question, which fellow posters/ TG experts passed on the last time I asked: The general statement is that it is less likely that horses will move forward as they age. What about lightly raced older horses? (Wildcat will be making his 12th start in the BC Sprint. I originally posed the question concerning Graham Motion\'s Funfair (BC Mile, a 6YO who will be making his 17th lifetime start)).
I would appreciate a general answer to the question (or some opinions) which need not relate to the chances of these 2 animals.
Thanks, pals.
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I understand it was in the -5.5 range. A huge number.
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In the simplest terms, you could say the lighter raced, the more chance for a new top. But it\'s really about the same questions of development (and previous tops that hurt, established levels, etc.) that apply with younger horses. A few years ago in ROTW I said about a 5 or 6yo that if he was ever going to run a new top it was today, and he did-- it was that deep closing Memo horse in California, someone might be able to find it if they wanted to spend the time. I don\'t remember saying that any other time, though.
It\'s also worth remembering that there are reasons that older horses are lightly raced.
As for WH, it\'s very unlikely he will run a new top. It\'s also very unlikely he will need one, as you will see when you get the pre-entries. The question there will mostly be about whether you think he will run his race.
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You have to assume scenarios.
If WHeir gets a decent post and can stalk, this horse has the ability to be the only one in front at the 1/8th pole and could hold off the late close of several horses. I would say the odds are against him running that figure again in this unbelievably tough sprint race. But, his chances of winning are probably better than half of the field.
Pomeroy is worrisome because he only has done well at Saratoga. Not a good sign.
I don\'t think older horses move forward without a legitimate reason. Volponi added blinkers. Usually, what you get with a older horse is a return to a great race he/she had in the early summer. Awesome Again did this, Pleasantly Perfect,
The really tough race to handicap, in my opinion, is the F/M Turf. Do we assume Ouija Board is better on last year\'s race? The other Europeans don\'t look much better than our horses. And our horses have the same figs. Post position and turf condition will answer alot of this, but still I see 4 or 5 possibilities.
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Scotty,
When you say \"unbelievably tough sprint race\", I assume you are referring to the fact that it is tough to handicap. It is not tough in terms of contenders. This is a great year to have a healthy and fast sprinter to run in the BC. Most of the field are not 6 furlong horses, with almost no grade 1 winners in the field either.
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\"The general statement is that it is less likely that horses will move forward as they age. What about lightly raced older horses? (Wildcat will be making his 12th start in the BC Sprint. I originally posed the question concerning Graham Motion\'s Funfair (BC Mile, a 6YO who will be making his 17th lifetime start)). \"
Lightly raced older horses are more likely to move forward than experienced ones, but being lightly raced and 4 (or over) is also usually telling you the horse has had physical problems.
Wildcat Heir\'s last was so fast, I wouldn\'t expect a new top from him.
Rock Hard Ten on the other hand is still lightly raced enough to have a new top in him.
However, I wouldn\'t be suprised if either or both of horses ran up the track because it\'s clear they both have had problems that interrupted their development. Whatever the probability is for throwing in a complete dud among average very high quality horses, it\'s got to be a little higher with both of these.
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jimbo,
They don\'t run many Grade 1 sprints throughout the year.
I\'ve always felt that the very best routers are better than the very best sprinters. The economics dictate that you try to stretch versatile horses out. So IMO the qualilty tends to be higher among milers and routers.
However, if you have a very versatile high quality miler that can deal with the pace of a Grade 1 sprint and be in a good enough position to win turning for home, I think a horse like that could shock people in a spot like this.
I\'m not all that anxious to bet against LITF at any price, but I think there\'s a chance that horses like Roman Ruler and to a lesser extent High Fly (he would have to jump up from his early 3YO form) might actually be better than people are giving then credit for coming into this race. It\'s a matter of getting them ready for 6F.
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Class,
I\'ve always felt that the very best apples are better than the very best oranges. Just an insight I thought I would add.
Yes, a top quality miler would be a contender. Do you really think Roman Ruler and High Fly would rank as top class milers at this point in their development.
The race is not deep. As a matter of fact it is shallow. No matter how many words you answer my post with, I will stick with this version of the sprint being a weak rendition. I am not going out on a limb there, most people would probably agree. At least those that don\'t disagree with every post just for sake of seeming themselves in print......... :)
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CH:
You just mentioned 3 3YOs Litf, Ro Ruler and Hi Fly.
Just curious.. how many 3YOs have won the BC Sprint?
The answer surprised me... 5: Very Subtle, Sheikh Illbedamned, Reraise, Squirtie Squirt and Cajun Beat
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jimbo,
\"Yes, a top quality miler would be a contender. Do you really think Roman Ruler and High Fly would rank as top class milers at this point in their development.\"
No, not on an absolute basis, but on a relative basis (as far as 3YOs go) I would say yes to RR and possibly to HF (he\'s only had 1 race off the layoff).
We are getting late in the year and 3YOs are getting a lot closer to their eventual peaks. Either or both of them could be ready for a big move forward.
Neither of these horses has developed much this year. Therefore most people would simply assume they were early developers. I am throwing out the \"possibility\" that either or both didn\'t develop much because they were stretched out and would really rather be going shorter. Both of them were considered question marks when it came to stretching out to begin with. Both had pretty good records sprinting. 6F may be too short though. These are the types of horses that could shock and could just get outrun, but they have my interest a little.
I don\'t know much about apples and oranges but most versatile horses do stretch out because the purses are bigger and there are more prestigious races going long. So I\'d say the quality is generally deeper and higher at longer distance races because that\'s where all the talent tries to go.
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That is an interesting possibility that RR and HF are not early developers and could be horses that wanted to run shorter. But does either have any early pace..... )
If the price is right, I woudln\'t blame anybody for taking a stab with either one. I guess 20-1 or higher would be the \"right price\" for me on those horses.
Looking at the Tgraph figs for the Sprint, I am a little less optimistic about beating LITF. Wildcat Heir has one, maybe two figs that could win, but is coming in with conditioning/health issues. Pomeroy has one fig that probably wins, but his last race was really really bad. The horse I like Battle Won, has four consecutive races that put him in the mix, but still make him more likely to be in the top 3, than win. I also hate that Watchmaker and a couple other public writers are on Battle Won, it hurts the price!!
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When was the last time that a top quality miler has won this race? If you keep on betting those types of horses in this race, you will ripping up many tickets on next Saturday. Truthfully, the Sprint is won by 6f specialists. In the 21 runnings of this race, 19 times the winner had WON at the distance of 6f during his/her campaign. Quite a remarkable number. Your 7f-miler specialists in this race just simply crash and burn, regardless on how well they look on paper. Just betting the percentages.
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I was eagerly awaiting the decision about running Wildcat Heir in the Cup, and I feel it looks like a good choice to enter, given the lesser quality of the field. The connections of this horse are all class, the owner (Eb Novak) is a friend of my family and an all around great guy.
From what I understand the horse has had physical problems (bad feet) his whole career, which has resulted in only 11 starts up until now. Novak/Perkins had another talented, but oft-injured horse named Delaware Township who won the Vosburgh and finished well in the last Cup at Belmont in \'01. Wildcat Heir was supposed to run at Arlington in a prep but scratched when a foot abscess flared up again. I haven\'t seen the sheet #\'s yet for the Sprint, but I echo Jerry\'s comments that you are not really looking for this kind of horse to run a new top next week. The question is more of can he run near that last effort or even pair up, given the setbacks that the effort caused, and the horse\'s history of injuries. If he does run close to that #, there is a good chance for a board finish and given the right trip a good chance for the victory. When you factor in all of the public money going on Lost in the Fog, you could possibly get a price worth justifying the risk on such an \"ouchy\" horse (Sorry Jerry for using a Ragozin term). Foot problems tend to just pop up out of nowhere. The horse can be fine all week and then boom, you notice a problem. My instincts are that if the horse runs, he will be ready to go. They wouldn\'t run him if he wasn\'t sound.
Either way my rooting interest, and probably my money will be riding on those fragile feet of Wildcat Heir.
Good Luck to all.
-Bull
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Not many top class milers have been entered in the sprint over the years. I don\'t consider the 7F horses to be in the category I am talking about. It\'s not a distance thing I am interested in. I agree that cutting back in distance is a negative. It\'s a quality of competition thing. The 7F horses are usually of the same quality as the 6F horses.
Had Congaree entered the sprint instead of the classic, that would have been an example of what I am talking about. IMO, the horses that Congaree was running well against were much better than the typical sprinter. I probably would have made him the favorite in the sprint.
Granted, a horse like RR is not of the same quality as Congaree, but he\'s still a developing 3YO. He may be a 15-1 or 20-1 shot that can fill out an exacta or trifecta.
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Gulch??? I agree with the premise... Roman Ruler and High Fly aren\'t Gulch. This may be a good spot not to complicate matters. Wildcat Heir is the fastest horse in here by a considerable margin and he\'s had lots of time since that number... and he\'ll be a solid price relative to that number.
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I think you can add Precisionist and Smile to the list of quality milers that have won this race. These milers won this race in the 80\'s. Agree with sentiment that 6f specialists win this race. In addition to his last, his DeFrancis race last year puts him right there and he will be double digits.
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I think you can throw Dancing Spree into that category also. Dispersal (finished 3rd in same race) would be another one. THere haven\'t been all that many of the type I am talking about entered though. Most chase the classic and get buried or don\'t even try the sprint.
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Less than 4 prep races in the BC SPRINT is a whopping 0 for 21.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
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If you look at Beyer figs, Lost in the Fog has run mediocre Beyers on East Coast tracks. This horse is beatable IF someone goes with him neck and neck around the first turn.
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Recalling the frightening moves RR made in his DelMar 2yo stakes sprints is starting to get my adrenalin going.
Good Luck,
Joe B.