Ask The Experts
General Category => Ask the Experts => Topic started by: jimbo66 on October 25, 2005, 06:26:32 PM
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I don\'t know and won\'t criticize without full knowledge of the details, but I would think that part of the job of track superintendent would be to be aware of the weather, not just the current weather but the future weather.
This replacement for Porcelli at Belmont is quoted Sunday as saying that he expected to be on the turf course on Wednesday and that the rails wouldn\'t be moved until Saturday, so the runners would be running on fresh grass.
Is he the only guy on the east coast that didn\'t know about the rain yesterday and today?
All these years of betting and i never really noticed how long it takes a turf course to recover from weather like this. Still raining today, but supposed to be dry Wednesday, Thursday and Friday, with possible showers on Saturday.
Anybody have an educated guess at what condition we will be looking at on Saturday if we don\'t see rain the next three days? Betting the futures could have some value if you are right about the turf. Wonder Again moves up on soft turf, Azamour seems to move down. There are others as well.
Jerry? Do you have a weather man that works with your track men?
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Since I\'m an avid golfer and a good friend of mine is a greens keeper, I can tell you that it will need a lot of sun and a whole lot of wind to expedite the drying process for grass. The deeper the grass the harder it is to dry.
NC Tony
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We will get lots of wind. I don\'t know about sun. HP
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I never really understand all this fretting over the turf course, seeing how it is all they have in Europe and they are rarely forced to cancel. Maybe our supers should spend some time at a meeting in France. Run the races, the horses will finish, and someone will win. The condition of the course is just part of the puzzle that you can\'t do a whole lot about, especially the turf!
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No they don\'t always finish. My fav Spook Express broke down over soft turf she hated. Not all turf courses are the same either. You must know whether your horse is comfortable over it and you must know whether the surface is safe or not. If its too slick, you may not finish.
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Jimbo,
One of Porcelli\'s guys said the turf would be good, MAYBE yielding, on Saturday. No \"bog\" unless it rains again between now and Sat. The wind was strong this morning(8:00am) but the sun was bright.
If the conditions stay like this thru Sat, I\'m thinking more good than yielding.
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Miff:
Its like NCTony said, take a walk on the 11th fairway at Latourette, see how firm it is.
I would be very leery of a situation where course is announced \"good\" when its not, when its something softer than that. I think trying to focus on comments by trainers and jockeys is important (read JV and B. Frankel\'s comments after Leroid\'s work...they are talking about a soft surface. That was on Monday and it has rained how much since then?).
My point being, Miff, you\'ll be a lot more likely to hear something negative about the turf courses from the trainers or the jocks than you will from the Super or his employees.
NYRA would do a great disservice to Hcappers everywhere if they didn\'t run at least two turf races Friday to allow the people who observe this kind of thing a chance to have an idea about the condition of the ground. (Note GR III Knickerbocker scheduled to be run on Turf Friday).
Where\'s Michael Dickinson\'s gal when you need her?
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Rich,
Believe it or not Porcelli is a pretty square shooter.I\'ll be out there Friday AM and I should be able to hear what some jocks think.If the turf is a BOG on Sat,I know that I will have very little chance even with the figs and other tools.
I agree with you about Friday but I\'m hearing showers(maybe) and I think they won\'t want to use the grass before Sat. Jerry may want to call Porcelli before the seminar to hear what he thinks.
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Miff:
NY1 weatherman just said no rain through Sat, hope he knows his stuff
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Three races carded on the turf at BEL today, two being MSW. Thankfully, they are all OFF and dirt is GOOD. Three races on turf tomorrow, again two MSWs.
The problem with the rating of U.S. turf courses is that it is subjective. There should be penetrometer readings taken at various points on the course and reported to the public.
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According to Hayward, Belmont is off the turf until Saturday. Doubt it\'ll be anything but soft/yielding, no matter what they label it for BC Day. The Euro hoping for \"good\" or better in the Turf (Alkaased) was withdrawn at entry time.
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Alkaased scratched because of some kind of \"blood count\" problem, not because of the turf condition. Story from oddschecker.com.... HP
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I just got home from Belmont. I left after the 3rd race. It was too darn uncomfortable. If you are going out there Saturday make sure you bundle up. Anyway, it was very windy and the sun was out. If we get a few more days of this weather, I think the turf won\'t be bad at all.
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Good job, HP. I hadn\'t seen that.
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Here\'s another pretty good article -- from sportinglife.com
There are some posters who should take note of these trainers\' comments -- that\'s all I can say without antogonizing anyone!
My comments -- if the turf is \"good\", which seems likely, it might not matter as much, but my understanding is you may not want to be inside on a giving turf course (I\'m sure someone will come back with a different opinion on this).
With all the attention on the turf conditions, what about a tiring, drying out-type dirt strip? Dead rail possibilities? Anybody have any strong opinions on a dirt runner who will benefit from a \"good\" type strip that NYRA will doubtless label \"fast\" ASAP?
HP
\"An ideal-looking draw in stall five failed to placate John Oxx after an inspection of the turf track at Belmont Park left the trainer of Azamour feeling pessimistic ahead of Saturday\'s Breeders\' Cup Turf.
Bookmakers Coral and Totesport both pushed Azamour out to 7-2 in the betting for the two-million dollar affair despite the colt\'s luck with post position.
Oxx reported his charge had travelled well from Ireland, but was unable to hide his disappointment over the recent wet spell that saw the track soaked with rain earlier this week.
\"He had a good trip but the weather is the worry,\" said Oxx.
\"The ground is very soft at the moment. They say it\'ll dry out but I can\'t see it myself.
\"We walked the course this morning and it is very deep.
\"My stick was going right in without having to apply much pressure to it at all.
\"We will have to see how much it has improved by Saturday but it is hard to see it being anything other than soft.
\"He is such a brave and tough horse that we are just hoping he can deal with it better now than he did when he was younger.\"
Casting his eye over Azamour\'s rivals, Oxx suggested Bago - drawn three and Coral\'s new 3-1 favourite - would prove the biggest threat.
\"I am not sure what ground the American horses will like but I do know Bago handles these sort of conditions,\" he said.
\"Bago ran well in the Arc and looks a lot better now than he did earlier in the season.
\"The other horse who definitely handles soft ground is Shirocco.
\"I am not sure if the balance of his form is quite good enough to win a Breeders\' Cup but he is a fresh horse and he also ran very well in the Arc.\"
Alan Cooper, racing manager to Bago\'s owners the Niarchos family, confirmed the well-being of the Jonathan Pease-trained colt.
\"It is difficult to know what the ground is going to be like,\" he said. \"In America the definitions of fast and soft ground are very different to those we would use in Europe.
\"But the horse has travelled well, he is in good form and he should handle the ground better than others if it does ride soft on the day.\"
Treated less well in the draw was Ouija Board, drawn 13 of 14 for her bid at a repeat victory in the Filly & Mare Turf.
But likely to be dropped out behind the early pace in the early stages, Jerry Bailey\'s mount should not be at a great disadvantage.
The same could not necessarily be said of Starcraft, the Luca Cumani-trained contender for the Classic.
Having already wowed the American media with his quotability, owner Paul Makin was swamped again after seeing the Australian horse - who has never run on dirt before - drawn last of all, widest of all, and worst of all in stall 14 of 14.
\"I guess we got the visitors\' draw,\" shrugged Makin.
\"It\'s not the end of the world.
\"We wanted to follow Saint Liam and he is on our inside in 13 so I guess we ought to be able to do that still.\"
But Cumani was not able to hide his disappointment so easily.
\"I realised there were only stalls eight and 14 left and eight would have been perfect,\" he said.
\"But I already had a sinking feeling in my stomach and I guessed it might happen to us.
\"Ground given away is ground lost and it\'s not good news. But hopefully we can still get the sort of prominent position that we want in the early stages of the race.\"
An outside post for Leroidesanimaux in the Mile had trainer Bobby Frankel perplexed about how the slot would affect his charge\'s prospects.
Leroidesanimaux will break from stall 11 under John Velazquez with only one horse outside him in the 12-runner field.
Frankel said: \"I can\'t say I\'m too happy with it.
\"They start this race on a turn, so being outside isn\'t good.
\"Against that, he\'s got plenty of speed but you don\'t want to have to use too much of it to get a position. Still, what are you going to do?\"
Europe\'s challenge for the Mile rests with Majors Cast, Valixir and Whipper, with the latter looking on good terms with himself when doing some half-speed work under Julien Auge on the main track at Belmont this morning.
Whipper looks to have a satisfactory draw in three, while Valixir will break from the 10 post and Frankie Dettori\'s mount, Majors Cast, has been drawn seven.
Belmont officials confirmed the two races due to be held on the turf track before Saturday have both been switched to the dirt track in order to ensure \"perfect conditions\".
A 20-metre wide strip of ground on the turf course nearest to the running rail has not been used for over a month in preparation for the event.\"
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HP said:
\"My comments -- if the turf is \"good\", which seems likely, it might not matter as much, but my understanding is you may not want to be inside on a giving turf course (I\'m sure someone will come back with a different opinion on this)\"
HP,
Good info.Jerry has recently spotted a couple of other tracks(Keenland for one) with dead turf rails.I think the problem is that we won\'t know until AFTER the turf races about the rail.I pay pretty close attention to rails in New York and can\'t recall a dead turf rail.I can say that on many occasions (on soft turf)I have seen early speed as a negative.
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Miff,
I posted earlier agreeing with your point on soft turf hurting frontrunners (an observation).
I\'ve read that tracks in general dry outside/in, so the inside will stay wetter longer. So you get turf situations where the outside has plenty of give, but the inside has TOO much and you get knocked out running in there.
Any ideas about the dirt? Angles? That seems like it will be just as tough to figure.
As Class reported, if today is any indication it will not be \"soft\" Saturday. The weather reports are making me nuts though. Earlier in the week most of them said clear through Saturday. Now a lot of them seem to be hedging and forecasting \"showers\" anywhere from Fri. PM up until and through Sat afternoon.
HP
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HP--
My buddy at ACCU-WEATHER says that the chance of showers is now minimal. Should be dry through the rest of the week.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
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HP,
I\'ve been tracking the weather all day. The latest forecast is showing improved conditions with only a slight chance of rain(it will probably pour for sure).
Belmont races beyond 6f often favored the outside paths until the new track sup showed up.I think the main plays more evenly nowdays.Having said that, I generally like the outside much better at Belmont since you almost have to \"send\" from the inside to avoid getting buried on the rail.
Maybe the two early non BC races will give a hint.It\'s been some time since the last BC at Belmont when the rail was so bad it was an embarrasement to NYRA for quite some time afterwards.
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What does Frankel want? It\'s the BC Mile with only one other true speed horse involved. Leroid gets a furlong to run before he has to run around a QUARTER OF A TURN. The last time it was held at Bel, there were three or four one dimensional speedballs entered. No excuses for this guy.