Ask The Experts
General Category => Ask the Experts => Topic started by: Chuckles_the_Clown2 on July 10, 2006, 06:15:43 AM
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In the July 7th, DRF \"Watchmaker Watch\", Mike Watchmaker still has Barbaro rated Number 1, with the commentary:
\"Recovery continues to be encouraging\"
Watchmaker, always behind the curve. The facts are that Barbaro has been running a \"consistently\" high fever for over a week.
On Monday, June 3rd he underwent anesthesia to have new screws inserted and a new cast was applied.
Wednesday, June 5th. Something was amiss with the cast and a third cast was applied. The implication is that he underwent anesthesia again, but that is not entirely clear.
Saturday, June 8th, the healing issues and infection became enough of a concern to subject Barbaro to a second major operation. A new plate, screws and a fresh bone graft are inserted and the infection site cleaned out. This is likely his third general anesthesia in 6 days and Richardson reports Barbaro is not recovering as quickly from the anesthesia.
The clinic reports the horse had also developed an abscess upon the sole of his left hind foot. (Which is his non injured rear foot and the one likely to take weight bearing if the injured foot is favored.)
Richardson\'s press release calls the developments \"Potentially\" serious. Potentially?
Between Mike Watchmaker and Richardson, which would get your vote for \"most deluded\"?
Will the media attempt to resurrect Barbaro in voting for the Eclipse winners?
http://my.earthlink.net/article/spo?guid=20060709/44b07f40_3ca6_1552620060709-979328289
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Nice post ctc - At the expense of sounding redundent , ad titium - Some of these guy\'s are beginning to look bad in my view when they knowingly mis-inform and omit relevent pertinent issues in their reporting of Barbaro\'s situation and scheduling and spacing of Triple Crown Races .
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CtC / Tabitha -
I\'m not a big fan of the Watchmaker Watch, but I don\'t think Watchmaker or the DRF is trying to mislead anyone. The current Watch is dated July 7, which is before Saturday\'s major development. As a practical matter, it was probably posted on July 6. The DRF has reported the developments as they occurred. (Your post currently reads that the events cited occurred in June. That\'s a typo; they occurred in July.)
As for Richardson, he has consistently warned against undue optimism and that Barbaro is not nearly out of the woods.
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this is 100% true, i have been reading this ctc character for a while and it seems to me that this sick person almost wants the horse to die. high time that jerry got rid of this maniac.
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HR:
Chuckles is not that inhumane that he wants Barbaro dead.
As a matter of fact, if the colt goes on to live a long life at stud (which is what we all hope for), Chuckles can get a lot more mileage out of him, reminding us all for the next 15 years that this colt was overrated.
In Chuckles way of thinking, this stallion\'s get will always be suspect in terms of soundness and in some cases (just like with any other stallion) his assessment will be cold, yet correct.
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richiebee Wrote:
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> HR:
>
> Chuckles is not that inhumane that he wants
> Barbaro dead.
>
> As a matter of fact, if the colt goes on to
> live a long life at stud (which is what we all
> hope for), Chuckles can get a lot more mileage out
> of him, reminding us all for the next 15 years
> that this colt was overrated.
>
> In Chuckles way of thinking, this stallion\'s
> get will always be suspect in terms of soundness
> and in some cases (just like with any other
> stallion) his assessment will be cold, yet
> correct.
The post did contain typos. It seems it takes me two weeks to understand when the month has changed. The time frame should be July, but the dates and implications were correct.
I wish Barbaro the best. He seems like a nice horse with alot of character. He is kind and alert. As far as animals generally go though today a baby rabbit found its way into my garage. I had to corner it to capture it and it wasn\'t easy. I was so mad I dashed it against the stoop, skinned it, marinated it in vinegar and made hassenpfeiffer for dinner. I know I spelled that wrong but I\'m too lazy to check.
Theres a lot of personal pronouns in this post, so hopefully Jerry will forgive it.
As far as Barbaro goes, the big score was the Preakness. Finally got him in the sights and got more than well. Barbaro retired undefeated but for that race,in which he finished last and my bets factored him off. The rest is history. Still if it would have been possible to get one more bet down after his gate bust, the return would have doubled.
Now the harsh part. I dont\' want Barbaro to breed. That opinion is held for the good of the breed, god knows the individuals involved in buying race horses don\'t have a clue about pedigree and genetic propensity. Its up to the horse Gods and they can\'t let him breed. They will decide.
Regarding the bunny. He had seven ticks in his ears, I carefully removed them, pinching each while avoiding harm to the little creature\'s hairless silken veined inside ear where they had lodged for their free meal. During the process I was stroking the little hopper to try and minimize the stress. The ticks themselves became sufficiently stressed to let go, but for the stubborn little ones which I popped between my nails. Of course I washed before I prepared the rabbit for dinner. The truth is the little lapin was freed in my garden, but that makes for a mundane story.
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Chuckles_the_Clown2 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> richiebee Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > HR:
> >
> > Chuckles is not that inhumane that he
> wants
> > Barbaro dead.
> >
> > As a matter of fact, if the colt goes on
> to
> > live a long life at stud (which is what we
> all
> > hope for), Chuckles can get a lot more
> mileage out
> > of him, reminding us all for the next 15
> years
> > that this colt was overrated.
> >
> > In Chuckles way of thinking, this
> stallion\'s
> > get will always be suspect in terms of
> soundness
> > and in some cases (just like with any other
> > stallion) his assessment will be cold, yet
> > correct.
>
> The post did contain typos. It seems it takes me
> two weeks to understand when the month has
> changed. The time frame should be July, but the
> dates and implications were correct.
>
> I wish Barbaro the best. He seems like a nice
> horse with alot of character. He is kind and
> alert. As far as animals generally go though today
> a baby rabbit found its way into my garage. I had
> to corner it to capture it and it wasn\'t easy. I
> was so mad I dashed it against the stoop, skinned
> it, marinated it in vinegar and made
> hassenpfeiffer for dinner. I know I spelled that
> wrong but I\'m too lazy to check.
>
> Theres a lot of personal pronouns in this post, so
> hopefully Jerry will forgive it.
>
> As far as Barbaro goes, the big score was the
> Preakness. Finally got him in the sights and got
> more than well. Barbaro retired undefeated but for
> that race,in which he finished last and my bets
> factored him off. The rest is history. Still if it
> would have been possible to get one more bet down
> after his gate bust, the return would have
> doubled.
>
> Now the harsh part. I dont\' want Barbaro to breed.
> That opinion is held for the good of the breed,
> god knows the individuals involved in buying race
> horses don\'t have a clue about pedigree and
> genetic propensity. Its up to the horse Gods and
> they can\'t let him breed. They will decide.
>
> Regarding the bunny. He had seven ticks in his
> ears, I carefully removed them, pinching each
> while avoiding harm to the little creature\'s
> hairless silken veined inside ear where they had
> lodged for their free meal. During the process I
> was stroking the little hopper to try and minimize
> the stress. The ticks themselves became
> sufficiently stressed to let go, but for the
> stubborn little ones which I popped between my
> nails. Of course I washed before I prepared the
> rabbit for dinner. The truth is the little lapin
> was freed in my garden, but that makes for a
> mundane story.
>
>
>
Ctc,
You are certainly unusually unusual CTC.
Ever read Ibsin?
NC Tony
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Actually an interesting observation in the middle of Chuckles\' hasenpfeffer (or was it chazerai?).
If the entity CTC refers to as \"the Racing Gods\" oversaw the perpetuation of the breed, natural selection would govern, and injured animals would not be permitted to propagate.
Humans and money, not the \"Gods\", rule racing. Overpriced underacheiving auction purchases become stallions based on economic necessity, not brilliance on the racetrack.
The long term effect of the introduction of large numbers of lightly raced and relatively unproven stallions (not to mention marginally sound stallions) probably will not be positive.
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i\'ve considured some of what ctc is saying eludes to and you\'ve summized that aswell in your \'long term effect senario - any chance we\'re already seeing the effects this now ? i\'ll never know for sure , but oddly enough i thought barbaro\'s turf ability would translate into sturdiness and soundness .
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richiebee Wrote:
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> Actually an interesting observation in the middle
> of Chuckles\' hasenpfeffer (or was it chazerai?).
>
> If the entity CTC refers to as \"the Racing Gods\"
> oversaw the perpetuation of the breed, natural
> selection would govern, and injured animals would
> not be permitted to propagate.
>
> Humans and money, not the \"Gods\", rule racing.
> Overpriced underacheiving auction purchases become
> stallions based on economic necessity, not
> billiance on the racetrack.
>
> The long term effect of the introduction of large
> numbers of lightly raced and relatively unproven
> stallions (not to mention marginally sound
> stallions) probably will not be positive.
Theres a Phipps mare that recovered from a very similar catastrophic injury. They saved her for breeding. Let\'s track her progeny. Of course with a mare, you are only going to have an average of 7-8 foals during her lifetime. Barbaro would probably sire 75 or more foals his very first year. Kentucky Derby Winner, undefeated until the event, popular story, sufficient breeding, the potential for his genetic makeup to make its way insidiously and permanently into the fabric of the breed\'s bone and tendon is the concern. The probabilities indicate that Barbaro is the equivalent of the Asian Fird Flu. Who would eat a chicken from Thailand knowing it had been sick? Thats the scenario.
How many Kentucky Derby winners have come unglued like that? Is that propensity in the Triple Crown the next thing those that are involved in the sport have to become accustomed to? Will we say \"That\'s horseracing, it just goes with the territory\"? Richiebee is right of course. This is more than saving a horse out of love. It is a desperate attempt to salvage multi millions in breeding rights. And as strange as it seems there are breeders and buyers out there that would become involved with Barbaro as a stallion despite the many questions that surround his injury and careful racing history. Sometimes though, the horse gods can overcome man\'s meddling. Richardson himself said \"We\'ve never seen injuries like this, these types of horses are put down.\" They\'ve already done more than they should. Barbaro has been under stress for six plus weeks, his condition was top when he underwent surgery. That condition has certainly degraded. This second operation finds him weakened like a two once bunny with ticks in its ears. Ticks are easy enough to remove, but the little rabbit was disoriented. He was in an auto garage. We try to intervene for whatever reasons, but theres a point where the rabbit god\'s decide and a point where the horse gods decide as well.
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At the outset of Barbaro\'s injury , I figured the horse had (about) the same chance as getting hit by lightning , aprx 85,000- 1 to survive , and aprx 600,000- 1 to breed . now with recent events those numbers might just have gone up a minimum of 3 or 4 fold .
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Ctc, go look at photographs of the legs of sires from 110 to about 50 years ago.
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Sight..
A fair point, but for each photo you look at, look at the race record of the stallion in the photo, and you will likely see multiple starts over 3 or 4 seasons of racing.
Let the powers that be create an edict that an animal can not stand stud unless they attain a certain degree of success on the track. Lets say that to stand stud a horse must have at least been a stakes winner or placed in a graded stake, or have accumulated a certain level of earnings.
I am not foolish enough to think that standards such as these would ever be implemented. Think however of the effect such standards might have: (a) overall improvement of the breed; (b) larger fields in stake races; (c) return to reality in terms of auction prices for young horses (people will not buy $1 million plus colts if there is a possibility that they will not be able to recoup their investment by standing, selling or syndicating an underqualified stallion prospect).
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Guys-- Hail To Reason, Raise A Native, Kris S, and Danzig. Just for starters.
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richibee,
The German Jockey Club actually does have such requirements for a horse to be able to stand at stud. In addition to performance qualifications, the horse must have raced at least 2 complete seasons and have no obvious structuaral problems.
Plus, and here\'s the big one, the horses must never have raced on any medication.
I agree that we\'ll never see such regulations here, but look at the success of the program including Scirroco and other German-breds in Europe. The bigger pay-off will come in a few generations.
Bob
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TGJB:
Did you mean Hoist the Flag, who made 4 lifetime starts, and not Hail to Reason (18 lifetime starts)? Raise A Native started only 4 times, but one of those efforts resulted in a stakes win. Danzig made only 4 starts, no stakes wins, but apparently showed brilliance in every stride he made in his abbreviated career. Kris S managed a stakes win in his short (5 race) career.
The type of stallions I would be more concerned with include the following: Almostashar (AP Indy/ Louisiana)(7 starts, 2 LT wins), Calumar (Seattle Slew/ NY) (15 starts, 1 win)(actually Calumar\'s pedigree is impeccable, he is Alydar\'s half brother), Cartwright (Forty Niner/ Illinois)(unraced) and Outflanker (Danzig/Maryland)(unraced) (Actually Cartwright and Outflanker are very productive stallions).
My point is that admission into the stallion ranks for lightly raced specimens is bound to have a long term effect on the overall soundness of the breed; of course at my age these long term effects may not be felt until long after I am terra firma.
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BP:
Don\'t forget the German bred mare Noble Stella, who is putting together a solid graded stakes campaign here in NA for Roger Attfield.
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I thought HTR only ran at two, could be wrong.
But the point is this-- the characteristics a horse shows himself and those he passes on are not necessarily the same. Cougar\'s progeny weren\'t particularly good on grass, Groovy gets routers, etc.
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The trouble nowadays, as someone else mentioned, is so many trying to pick and choose big wins to make the stallion career. Are they racing so little to avoid hurting a career record and the future stud fee (investment recoup), or is the horse that fragile?
Racing has almost become the poor stepchild of the TB Breeding Business, a necessary evil so there\'s something to brag about in the ad.
This will make Chuckles teeth tingle - I don\'t consider all injuries the same in the \"breed to or not\" department. If I had the right mare, I\'d run to Barbaro if he makes it to the shed - and I hope he does. He has alot to offer. Hopefully people who think like Chuckles will keep the fee quite low the first two years
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TGJB:
According to Blood Horse Stallion Register, HTR was a foal of 1958, started 18 times, and earned $328K.
Hoist the Flag was champion 2YO in 1970 after 2 starts. He came back as a 3YO and won by 15 lengths, then won the 7 furlong Bay Shore by 7 lengths in 1:21-- at the time the fastest 7 furlongs ever run by a 3YO in NY. HTF was injured in a workout prepping for the Wood and retired. I believe Sid Watters trained HTF.
JB you are looking at the micro level-- yes, it seems every year you will have a Balto Star, sired by a stallion associated only with main track sprinters (Glitterman) winning turf marathons. I am more concerned with the long term effects, and as I have pointed out, less concerned than I should be because these effects will manifest themselves long after my passing.
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JB said:
\"But the point is this-- the characteristics a horse shows himself and those he passes on are not necessarily the same. Cougar\'s progeny weren\'t particularly good on grass, Groovy gets routers, etc.\"
Very true Jerry. I went to many sales and watched top \"eyes\" select on the basis of breeding, correctness et al. I\'ve never heard a selector shy away from a new stallion because of racing soundness.Most potential stallions have some soundness issues, you just don\'t hear about it because it\'s guarded by the connections and managed by the trainer/vet.
As you stated, it is a guess that a new stallion will or won\'t throw unsoundness.I believe that Barbaro, for example, will have a long line waiting for his services if he survives and makes it to the breeding shed.How he will fare as a stallion is anyones guess.
Chuck, believe me you are just guessing on future soundness. You can\'t imagine the research that goes into lineage history looking for the next freak, to no avail. No one knows for sure and that\'s why champions are sometimes purchased for small money and multi million dollar babies often can\'t beat a fat man.
Mike
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True, horses don’t always pass along their characteristics but the fact is any characteristic a horse exhibits, whether its good (like the combination of traits for speed or stamina), neutral, (like color), or bad, (like unsoundness) begins with the genes, and a horse that you know is carrying a trait in his genes, is more likely to pass it along than one who doesn’t exhibit that trait and is more likely be free of it genetically as well.
A horse who’s legs could not stand up to the stress of even a moderate schedule is more likely to produce fragile offspring than one who has shown they can stand up to the rigors of racing for several seasons. Like, generally, begets like. Yes, in the short run, there may be exceptions, but in the long run, the laws of probabilities in genetics wins out.
In natural selection horses that breakdown young are removed from the gene pool and that’s how species remain sound. By breeding to individuals that nature would have culled out, we are keeping unsoundness in the gene pool.
Even in the short run, a breeder may stil want to breed to a horse like Barbaro for other reasons, but he\'s only deluding himself if he doesn\'t think he\'s increasing the chances of getting unsound offspring.
Bob
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Bob,
We may never know if Barbaro was unsound all along or just took a bad step.In today racing world many young horses are lightly campaigned and judiciously spaced.You may recall that was not the case years back and todays runners are never assigned the handicap weight of years ago. Connections can almost dictate the weight their horse will carry or they dont run. Racing secretaries are up against it to get the stars to run at their track.
There are no stallions that only throw soundness and let\'s not forget that the mare has some say in the process.Of course there are studs that have established a track record for their offspring.Some regular buyers avoid certain studs like the plague.
There aren\'t too many ventures that carry more risk than breeding horses.
Mike
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richiebee Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> TGJB:
>
> According to Blood Horse Stallion Register,
> HTR was a foal of 1958, started 18 times, and
> earned $328K.
>
> Hoist the Flag was champion 2YO in 1970 after
> 2 starts. He came back as a 3YO and won by 15
> lengths, then won the 7 furlong Bay Shore by 7
> lengths in 1:21-- at the time the fastest 7
> furlongs ever run by a 3YO in NY. HTF was injured
> in a workout prepping for the Wood and retired. I
> believe Sid Watters trained HTF.
>
> JB you are looking at the micro level-- yes,
> it seems every year you will have a Balto Star,
> sired by a stallion associated only with main
> track sprinters (Glitterman) winning turf
> marathons. I am more concerned with the long term
> effects, and as I have pointed out, less concerned
> than I should be because these effects will
> manifest themselves long after my passing.
Danzig started 3 times, was undefeated. He was certainly a modern era top sire even if slanted to speed. Crossed with the right mare he could get a top horse.
http://www.pedigreequery.com/danzig
Raise a Native was undefeated in four races winning two stakes.
http://www.pedigreequery.com/raise+a+native
Both retired prematurely with soundness issues. Both sired more than their fair share of gimpy get.
As far as sprint runners siring route stakes horses and visa versa, that certainly happens. A good horse can come from anywhere, but the genetic propensities hold up in the long run. They are especially true in regard to soundness. Gimpy stallions generally sire large percentages of gimpy runners. Glitterman by the way was out of a full sister to Relaunch, who got his fair share of distance able horses. Waquoit and Skywalker among them if memory serves. Glitterman wasn\'t half bad on the Sire side either. Dewan was a very capable route horse. Note Dewan started 40 times, Glitterman 25. Where are these numbers now?
http://www.pedigreequery.com/glitterman
Hoist the Flag, Raise a Native, Danzig and a host of others have nothing in common with Barbaro. The latter didn\'t retired injured. He retired shattered and in the grave. Modern equine medical science brought him back from the dead and its a miracle he has survived this long. When Ruffian awoke from her anesthesia she thrashed and shattered her cast. Now they have anesthesia recovery flotation pools and equine body temperature water and much more than that. When a horse breaks down in the fashion Barbaro broke down the proper thing is the humane thing. If Barbaro where a 12 year old stable pony loved by all concerned he wouldn\'t have been put through this despite what is said the contrary. Clear heads and reality would prevail. It clearly won\'t prevail with the money at stake. This horse must not breed. The Preakness is evidence that he was not meant to.
miff wrote:
\"Chuck, believe me you are just guessing on future soundness. You can\'t imagine the research that goes into lineage history looking for the next freak, to no avail. No one knows for sure and that\'s why champions are sometimes purchased for small money and multi million dollar babies often can\'t beat a fat man.\"
Unfortunately, I\'m not guessing. The next freak is obviously difficult to predict, the next breakdown is not, but the evidence also indicates the point is moot and we won\'t have debates in four or five years about how many starts a a new racing prospect will be up to before he goes bad.
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Could not agree more. Barbaro, in my opinion, would be a can\'t miss stallion with his class, and combination of stamina and speed. The long face of Dr. Richardson was a bit disconcerting today. BBB
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sighthound Wrote:
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> The trouble nowadays, as someone else mentioned,
> is so many trying to pick and choose big wins to
> make the stallion career. Are they racing so
> little to avoid hurting a career record and the
> future stud fee (investment recoup), or is the
> horse that fragile?
>
> Racing has almost become the poor stepchild of the
> TB Breeding Business, a necessary evil so there\'s
> something to brag about in the ad.
>
> This will make Chuckles teeth tingle -
> I don\'t consider all injuries the same in the
> \"breed to or not\" department. If I had the right
> mare, I\'d run to Barbaro if he makes it to the
> shed - and I hope he does. He has alot to offer.
> Hopefully people who think like Chuckles will keep
> the fee quite low the first two years
sighthound, think I remember prospective stud fees discussed when the surgery intially went so well. The number was 100K. Reasonable to me for a 1st year sire is a maximum of 10K, more than that is overly speculative. With 1st year sires that have been successful on the track they usually gouge the first couple years. By the time the first foals are yearlings they have an idea about conformation and sometimes the gouge fees don\'t even last until the 2YO\'s hit the track. The plans for Barbaro were not to offer him at a discount. The plans were to gouge while the gouging was good.
Not sure out of this crop who i\'d pay for, beginning to believe it is exceptionally weak. They made a huge mistake gelding Sweetnorthernsaint. Save your stud dollars and pay a nice reasonable fee for Forbidden Apple, he\'s going for 5k and you get a lot of pedigree and a robust sire.
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I would be more interested in Deep Impact soon to be seen in France for the Arc. Sire KD winner and mare ran 2nd in the Epsom Oaks. 10 wins out of 11 races. Winner from 1 1/4 mile to 2 miles. Ran the 2mile in 3:13.40 setting a NTR.
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Mike,
Barbaro’s potential to breakdown was very likely not detectable until that “bad step” at Pimlico. Quite frankly “bad step” is really a euphemism for the stride where the bone can no longer stand up to the stress it is placed under in racing. There was an attempt to attribute it to being hit by Brother Derek’s hoof but further examination showed no evidence that there was anything involved other than the bone giving way from the force of the impact between hoof and track. After that there were many truly bad steps as the joint loosened and the pastern shattered as well.
Yes, there are many genetic factors involved in determining the soundness of the offspring, including the contributions of the dam, but the soundness of the stallion, in terms of how he stood up to the stress of racing is a big factor. How else can we assess soundness? The tendency to be able to withstand the impact of racing by the bones and joints is governed by a number of genetic factors. As those that had to solve genetics problems in biology may remember, if you know the individual’s phenotype (what traits they exhibit), you automatically know at least half of their genotype, which is the totality of what they have to offer in breeding.
What’s disturbing is how many people and breeders seem to think that breakdowns are some kind of uncaused event, attributed solely to the ubiquitous “a bad step” and that the tendency to breakdown is, somehow unrelated to the principles of genetics. Funny how breeders stress the importance of genetics when it comes to positive things like speed.
Barbaro may well have other recessive genes in his genotype for soundness, which when combined with the right mares, will produce some sound offspring. However, one cannot totally ignore his breakdown and the implication that at least half his genotype contains genes that are suspect for soundness.
I 100% agree that breeding racehorses is one of the trickiest things in the world to do, unfortunately, in today’s industry, where horses are breed mainly for profit at the sales rather than on the track, breeders have little incentive to breed for soundness since it doesn’t take much soundness to breeze a fast furlong or two at a sale and buyers are not much put off by how many horses in the individual’s pedigree broke down on the track, as long as they flashed some speed in their brief careers. There will never be a change in the breakdown problem in racing unless breeders look at breakdowns as a serious factor in stallion selection.
Thanks for the interesting discussion.
Bob
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NEVER FALL IN LOVE WITH A RACE HORSE!!!!!!!!!!
This horse today still has only a 10% chance to survive, let alone make it to the breeding shed.
His recovery so far has been miraculous and I sincerely hope he does survive, but sentiment aside, this is a bet I would be willing to book..............