Ask The Experts
General Category => Ask the Experts => Topic started by: Frank on July 19, 2007, 10:50:25 PM
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Greetings from fabulous Del Mar.
I thought I\'d let you know our old friend Tom, aka Alydar & Janis Joplin, arrived at Del Mar today for one of his annual visits, picked up my set of TG\'s and promptly nailed the 65-1 winner of the 3rd race.
Easy game this horseracing when you have good data and you know how to use it. Needless to say, I got nada in the race.
Frank
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1--Now he can afford to buy his own sheets.
2-- He picked up WHAT? Not Ragozin? No!!!
As for the 2yo filly that got the big Rag number at Kee-- obviously she ran fast. But as I pointed out at the 04 DRF Expo, there is no way to make figures for those Kee 4 1/2 races, which is why Andy doesn\'t either. If you don\'t believe me, just ask Friedman how he makes them-- or do a search for my post here after the Expo.
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Interesting, I always thought the shorter the race, the less accurate the number was going to be anyway, but that Keeneland 4 1/2 chute is a strange run. If she did run that fast, I\'d tend to play against next time out. I never remember a horse running an unreal debut number and doing much afterwards. We\'ll see, I guess, when she runs again. One thing\'s for sure, she\'s got blazing early speed, though that\'s the last thing you want at Del Mar so far in the \"Polytrack era\". If that guy hit the 65-1 shot yesterday, he more likely had a patron saint, rather than sheets or T-Graphs!
Good Luck to all.
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Dana666,
I said if a guy had good data and KNEW HOW TO USE IT. He didn\'t need a patron saint, he just made a great read. No sour grapes please.
Frank
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Frank, get real
I think it\'s appropriate to say anyone using that horse from the TG sheets would be:
\"The dumber the farmer the bigger the potato\"
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OK, miff. Let me get real. The 3rd fastest horse in the race at 2 turns, third off the layoff, going in the right direction, won the race at 65-1 and I need to get real. Get over yourself and understand that there are a lot of ways to interpret the data. My friend made a brilliant read, one that doesn\'t need to be correct too often at 65-1 to produce a serious profit and he\'s the dumb farmer?
Frank
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Nice resulting frank ask your friend if he needs a bookie
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No two people read TG sheets alike which is not to say that lots of TG sheet readers won\'t end up on the same horse quite often. But handicapping by it\'s very essence is an individual pursuit. So doff the cap, say nice hit, I couldn\'t of had it, and turn the page to the next race.
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Alan,
I agree but when guys want to come on the board and suggest that an absolute dead piece(7 lengths slower than several at PRESENT form) was a nice job by TG,thats an insult. There isnt a sheet reader on the planet TG or RAGS that would make a SERIOUS bet on that horse.
Mike
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Mike, you can only speak for yourself and perhaps a few friends as well. I couldn\'t have it, but so what. Why is it an insult? Tom had it, we didn\'t. Don\'t take it personally. It might throw you on tilt which will only hurt your game.
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Thanks Alan,
Good advice, probably Frank was just trying to give you guys some props.
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The guy in question, other issues aside, is definitely a dead serious handicapper. And I can think of another guy who bets horses like that often-- one that has been betting off our data for a living for a long time.
No, it\'s not my kind either, because I don\'t like betting on something that is 5% to happen-- even if it\'s a huge overlay, which 65-1 was. But that horse was third off a layoff, with big back figures, and switching to poly-- where unsound horses feel better (that\'s what it\'s for), and horses jump up in general. Absolutely wrong to dismiss this one out of hand-- nice hit.
And he did it using our data. Next thing you know, Indulto will stop alliterating, and Razzle will be buying our stuff.
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>No, it\'s not my kind either, because I don\'t like betting on something that is 5% to happen-- even if it\'s a huge overlay, which 65-1 was. But that horse was third off a layoff, with big back figures, and switching to poly-- where unsound horses feel better (that\'s what it\'s for), and horses jump up in general. Absolutely wrong to dismiss this one out of hand-- nice hit. <
I see absolutely nothing wrong with taking a flier on a live bomb once in awhile. I tend to throw them in exotics more often, but a small win or win and place bet will do also. I have a funny feeling he didn\'t step out on this horse. He probably took a little shot.
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Jerry,
Nice try and I\'m sure the blind followers agree, but if you have a customer who you call a dead serious handicapper who gambles those types, PLEASE give him my phone number,I want to book him, seriously.
Mike
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You don\'t want to book either of the two guys I mentioned, and you DEFINITELY don\'t want to book Frank. Trust me on this one.
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I wasn\'t going to post on this but since so many have....
The less \'serious\' you are about your day, and in particular , the less often you are attending, the easier it is to have these \'possible\' bombers.
Your knees are loose, your brain is unencumbered, and you figure, so if it loses, so what. When you are playing daily, and for a living, you grow weary of 65-1 shots that lose.
Whats better than beginners luck?
A pro back from a vacation.
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I think Frank covered it. I\'ll add that anyone using the word \"dumb\" in any connection with Tom/Alydar/JanisJoplin is either a spud shy of a full bushel, having a very bad day or is new to these boards.
I\'d like to add my congratulations to JJ on a great hit.
raz
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I call for the reinstatement of Alydar, under his original title. We need to discuss the surging federal revenues due to the Bush tax cuts.
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Nice Hit on the 65-1 shot + more power to you ! IMO - it\'s OK to play a bomb even if you play everyday - providing you have room in your bankroll .
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RAZZLE,
Yeah, I\'m new to the board and to speed/performance figs. Would you like to put your money where your mouth is along with Tom/Alydar/JJ or whoever. I\'m easy to reach. Any money where all theses mouths are?
Mike
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Mike,
I respect your opinion, not always agreeing with you, but usually understand where you\'re coming from. Twice on the sheets this horse jumped huge, @ 7 points and 10 points. I know you hate POLY, but geez give the man his due. We all wish we saw it the same way as he did.
Me thinks your anti-poly is resurfacing here.
NC Tony
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Jerry,
Thanks for the kind words.
Miff,
I only posted this to brag on my friend and toss a flower Jerry\'s way. I\'m not going to debate this with you because you already know everything.
Frank
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Tony,
We could debate forever, the horse going in at app65-1 had a theoretical chance of app 1.75%(not 5%) and it just so happens that after research of 200k races, all 65-1 shots actually underperform winning only at app 0.60%(less than one percent). TGI showed only a 2% probability from its sampling.
Aside from that the jock was 1 for 101, the horse was beaten by another horse in the race 17 days ago by 6+ lenghts,was moving slightly UP in class while 4 others were dropping down, was 7 lenghts slower,outside post, and was beaten 10+ and 19+ lengths in two synthetic tries.
Now on that day, route race horses were mainly coming from way back on a very dull energy sapping surface in very slow raw times which is most likely the reason the horse won and not because of third off, moving forward et al.
All I said was that anyone who used the TG data to pick this winner is someone I want to book for the long term, whats the problem? Why doesn\'t Razzle or Frank produce the guy/guys to come and take my money? No Tony?
As to Del Mar poly, if you like racing that goes 2 to 3 seconds slower than normal, with horse wobbling/swerving from exhaustion to the wire, it\'s ok.According to the MIG,you want a one run horse on that surface.After three days it looks kinda like Kee Poly not AP poly and very different from synthetic which was somewhat kinder to early gas.It\'s way too soon to profile that surface though.
Good Luck,
Mike
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Frank,
No kidding as to the flower but you did a disservice in some corners.There are some other very sharp players that read/post here. I never said I know everything, you must have me mixed up with someone else.
Mike
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>As to Del Mar poly, if you like racing that goes 2 to 3 seconds slower than normal, with horse wobbling/swerving from exhaustion to the wire, it\'s ok.<
Aside from the porential impact to breeding values (which rarely gets discussed) and the additional handicapping difficulties, this is my biggest complaint. The racing is ugly.
You don\'t see the same kind of speedy battles that test the depth of quality you see on dirt and you also don\'t see the spectacular late bursts of speed you often see on turf. A lot of the races are more even paced and dull.
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Basically I agree with Miff.
I\'ll book his bets with you Miff. We\'ll make far more cashing our own though. hes a penny player.
miff Wrote:
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> Alan,
>
> I agree but when guys want to come on the board
> and suggest that an absolute dead piece(7 lengths
> slower than several at PRESENT form) was a nice
> job by TG,thats an insult. There isnt a sheet
> reader on the planet TG or RAGS that would make a
> SERIOUS bet on that horse.
>
> Mike