Ask The Experts
General Category => Ask the Experts => Topic started by: miff on August 28, 2007, 09:34:54 AM
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Raggie Richie from left field tells me that the Rags people do not think that Pletchers 100 entrants are under performing ON THE WHOLE. What could they possibly be looking at for the last 5 weeks with just a few exceptions. It\'s the talk of the SPA how poorly TAP runners are performing with TAP himself confiding to many that he is perplexed.
Must be the sometimes voodoo projection methodology that they are misreading. There isn\'t a person of knowledge in this game that has not seen runner after runner from TAP perform totally \"Empty\"
Mike
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I would point out that Plech started the meet very well. He is now winning at a rate of approximately 11%
He won some significant Stakes early. Most notably the Whitney and has tailed off markedly.
This is a timely thread in regard to another running that notes there is not much which separate horses in respective classes. If you could put a percentage on the difference in effort for two horses that ran four lengths apart at 9 furlongs it very well may be a 2 or 3 percent points difference in ability/effort. Increasing the effectiveness of any particular horse against contemporaries that have 150 years of industry common knowledge and as many as 40 more years actual training experience is not an easy task if one plays by the rules.
If he truly has the best horses and best people and is the most knowledgeable man in the game, this slump could not occur. Plech is being impacted by things behind the scenes influencing his behavior. Without the edge that he has had, Plech with his level of experience and organizational emphasis would be the 10 percent trainer he is currently hitting at Saratoga.
CtMC
Miff Wrote:
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> Raggie Richie from left field tells me that the
> Rags people do not think that Pletchers 100
> entrants are under performing ON THE WHOLE. What
> could they possibly be looking at for the last 5
> weeks with just a few exceptions. It\'s the talk of
> the SPA how poorly TAP runners are performing with
> TAP himself confiding to many that he is
> perplexed.
>
>
> Must be the sometimes voodoo projection
> methodology that they are misreading. There isn\'t
> a person of knowledge in this game that has not
> seen runner after runner from TAP perform totally
> \"Empty\"
>
>
> Mike
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IMO - Pletchers VA Derby win was the most surprising one to me - the others not so much ... Don\'t know his overal stats or win % but there doesn\'t seem to be anyone in particular right now who absolutely dominates ( at the stakes level ) . Those wins however in the Oaks , Belmont , VA Derby and Whitney are relatively impressive though ...
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come on we all know its been this way since the stewards too some samples of his hay. the results are in and well lets just say its really expensive hay.
sorry you were not aware of the \"haygate\"
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>If he truly has the best horses and best people and is the most knowledgeable man in the game, this slump could not occur.<
You should take a basic probability and statistics course or flip coins for a few hours and record the streaks.
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..... and is the most knowledgeable man in the game.
Chuck,
Do not recall anyone ever calling TAP the most knowledgeable man in the game. He knows racing and race shape and often consults with the jock on pre race strategy unlike many trainers that give a leg up to the jock and leave it to him.
His expensive babies are performing so poorly that one would have to think they are not even being fed, let alone juiced.
Mike
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Best Horses? Probably
Best People? Maybe
Most Knowledgeable? I think if you read even the pro- Pletcher posts on this
board, nobody is comparing him to the best horsemen of this or previous
generations. TAP has owners with deep pockets who can provide him with the best
racing stock in the world, at least what is left of it after the Dubai Brothers
are finished.
TAP\'s subpar Saratoga meet: As was mentioned by some scalliwag on the other
board (the nerve, to call a certain French trainer Patrick Biancobra), it would
be an interesting study to see what the ROI/ win percentage is on Pletcher\'s
100 plus Saratoga starters in their next race after the Spa closes (or to see
if there is any significant TG \"correction\").
Making more excuses for TAP: He may not have been favored by the condition books
at this summer\'s meet, which featured unprecedented numbers of cheap turf races
and NYB races. (Despite a subpar meet quality wise, NYRA is doing big business
in terms of total handle which says quite a bit about the lack of quality
racing anywhere else this summer).
It is what it is: Barring a big turnaround in the last 6 days of the meet, TAP
could finish with a win percentage for the meet below 10%, and that will be the
biggest story of the Spa in 07.
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>it would be an interesting study to see what the ROI/ win percentage is on Pletcher\'s 100 plus Saratoga starters in their next race after the Spa closes (or to see if there is any significant TG \"correction\").<
I don\'t think ROI is a very good way of measuring TP\'s performance as a trainer (even though I use ROI very often to help find value).
Astute handicappers notice tainers who horse\'s tend to develop as they move up the ranks. They also notice those whose horses are more likely to run back to their prior good efforts. Those horses tend to be bet down to reflect those increased favorable probabilities.
TP is unique in that his reputation at Saratoga combined with a slightly less sophisticated group of horse players probably lead him to being very overbet on many occasions at this meet.
I don\'t really know if it\'s possible to conclude anything based on this small a sample. When your longer term win percentage is in the 25% range, you are going to have periods where it rises to 35% or falls to 10% due to randomness. I think that\'s true not only of winning, but figures as well. If your horses typically run a pair X%, bounce Y%, and peak Z%, you are going to have periods where the horses are running much better or worse for no other reason than randomness. If you go into something like that with a pre-conceived notion, you will often come to an incorrect conclusion.
IMO, there are times when you can predict things like this.
If a trainer recently shipped in with a lot of fresh horses he might go on a tear for awhile because they might all peak at the same time.
If an exceptional trainer just got a lot of new stock from inferior connections, he might go on a tear for awhile etc...
If all a trainer\'s horses have already had a few taxing efforts they might all start to slide at the same time.
If a couple of horses got sick, a bunch of them might miss a few days training and run subpar etc...
Unless someone knows something the rest of us don\'t, I don\'t think this is one of those occasions, but I\'m not sure what you can read into the results unless you are trying to read something into them. If TP saddled a horse right now that I thought represented good value, I would play it. At most I might insist that it be better than marginal value.
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Mark,
The sheets were talking about the Saratoga TAP runners for the most part. At Monmouth and Arl Park, TAP is running at high win percentage ( he\'s drugging at those venues, not at the SPA,ahem).
Richiebee points to the excessive NYB and turf sprints, true, but TAP runners almost always show some \"flash\" as opposed to the \"empty\"many are displaying.
Also hear that J\'Ray(one of the emptiest SPA performs from Pletcher) ran better than his previous few races against open stake horses on Rags. How can you not gamble this game when people will actually bet and believe that J\'Ray gave the best performance of his last 3 races.He was wide both turns and totally\"without any punch\"(from the guy on his back)yet ran the best race of his recent cycle, sure he did.
Mike
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Who wants to bet TAP\'s Saratoga stock doesn\'t wake up at their next venue?
If you think this is a random walk thing you haven\'t followed this guy at all...he is always in the 25% plus range...everywhere except where he doesn\'t play a lot.
Might be interesting to note his ship-in percentage in SoCal, for example. He wins some, loses many or so it seems.
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richiebee Wrote:
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> Best Horses? Probably
>
> Best People? Maybe
>
> Most Knowledgeable? I think if you read even the
> pro- Pletcher posts on this
> board, nobody is comparing him to the best
> horsemen of this or previous
> generations. TAP has owners with deep pockets who
> can provide him with the best
> racing stock in the world, at least what is left
> of it after the Dubai Brothers
> are finished.
>
> TAP\'s subpar Saratoga meet: As was mentioned by
> some scalliwag on the other
> board (the nerve, to call a certain French trainer
> Patrick Biancobra), it would
> be an interesting study to see what the ROI/ win
> percentage is on Pletcher\'s
> 100 plus Saratoga starters in their next race
> after the Spa closes (or to see
> if there is any significant TG \"correction\").
>
> Making more excuses for TAP: He may not have been
> favored by the condition books
> at this summer\'s meet, which featured
> unprecedented numbers of cheap turf races
> and NYB races. (Despite a subpar meet quality
> wise, NYRA is doing big business
> in terms of total handle which says quite a bit
> about the lack of quality
> racing anywhere else this summer).
>
> It is what it is: Barring a big turnaround in the
> last 6 days of the meet, TAP
> could finish with a win percentage for the meet
> below 10%, and that will be the
> biggest story of the Spa in 07.
good post Richie.
further, poly is crowding out the wind em up quarter horse guys with good vets. the speed game on dirt, a game Pletcher plays so well, just got a lot more difficult. just look at the 2nd today; Pletcher would have been in the winner\'s circle with that colt last year. this year it\'s Baffert, who just got the hell out of Dmr.
I\'d venture to guess that if Jerry took a look, he\'d come up with the same conclusion the other guy did.
the smart guys are going to start to look at good poly form, and look to the big purses at the poly tracks, where the competition isn\'t nearly as difficult (actually, the smart ones already started).
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Kelli White went from never winning a high school or college track meet in her life before meeting Balco\'s founder Victor Conte, six months latter she won both the 100 and 200 meter dashes at the World Championships in Paris.
Let\'s face it, if humans are willing to put performance enhancing drugs into their owns bodies, what makes anyone so naive to believe that certainer trainers aren\'t doing the same to horses.
The problem is the sport doesn\'t punish it\'s own!
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Scum like Chuckles the Clown in the future will not be able to hide behind an inane screen name and take pot shots at people like Todd Pletcher. As technology improves, jerks like this one will be weeded out of existence and will have to crawl back into the holes from which they emerged. This putz is a prime example of the worst part about the Internet revolution.
If you have something worthwhile to contribute, there are plenty of authorities out there interested in speaking with you.
In the meantime, I suggest you clam up unless you can produce something to back up your claims.
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Barry, I haven\'t discerned much of a reason to respond personally to you and part of that restraint involved the fact nothing emanating from you approached a threshold necessary to rebut. That is still the case, but I believe its worth pointing out to the followers of this board why you come across as \"low rent property\" as evidenced by your complete loss of civility. In a phrase the reason is \"personal bias\", but I will elaborate some.
Barry, I\'m not sure how to phrase this without blowing my own horn too much, but discerning things accurately is something that I do extremely well. I make mistakes now and then, but invariably I both recognize those mistakes and correct them before very long. I\'ve won four of the last six derbies and it really should have been five. As an example outside of wagering unique races, I knew when he invaded that Bush had fabricated a case against Iraq upon impressions, lies and withheld evidence. I knew before the subsequent disclosures that Iraq was a fraud and also knew at that time that it would end as badly as it did for the British and for Charlemagne before them.
Barry in this disagreement you are the one making the mistake.
Respectfully, it\'s apparent that you don\'t have the background nor the level of discernment necessary to reach the heart of this matter. Either that, or you lash out in defense of Plech due to a conflict of interests. That conflict involves your publicly stated position that you support clean racing, when that position is mitigated by a private relationship with a \"trainer\", generally questioned, and one that the knowledgeable Know is illegitimate. The truth do take a bite and sometimes the reason its so painful is because that bite is to the bone.
I would point out that Plech\'s Saratoga stats still make him the leading money earner with half the wins of the leading trainers. In other words, despite slumping overall he is still ringing the bell in the lucrative races. Part of Plech\'s doping modus operandi has always been that he continues to \"treat\" his Grade I stars when backing off on the rest of his stable. Below is a reprise link to the Great Plech Stable Star Die Off of 2002:
http://www.thorograph.com/phorum/read.php?1,36897,36897#msg-36897
It\'s abundantly clear that a prima facie case has already been made against Plech and that the burden is now upon his supporters to do the explaining.
As it has been, it is still within your power to do the ethical thing Barry. Broach with Plech subtley when he established his relationship with Steve Allday and report his answer back to this board.
Those involved in fraud always want those discerning their trickery to clam up.
CtMC
Barry Irwin Wrote:
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> Scum like Chuckles the Clown in the future will
> not be able to hide behind an inane screen name
> and take pot shots at people like Todd Pletcher.
Plech is many things, but virtuous is not one of them.
> As technology improves, jerks like this one will
> be weeded out of existence and will have to crawl
> back into the holes from which they emerged. This
> putz is a prime example of the worst part about
> the Internet revolution.
>
> If you have something worthwhile to contribute,
> there are plenty of authorities out there
> interested in speaking with you.
>
> In the meantime, I suggest you clam up unless you
> can produce something to back up your claims.
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Chuck:
I am not going to get involved in any way in a mudslinging match between you
and Barry Irwin.
I think the attention you brought to Pletcher\'s 02 \"die off\", albeit 5 years
after the fact, was probably your finest moment.
The 02 die off and the subpar meet Pletcher is going through in 07 really do
nothing to \"shift the burden\" to TAP\'s supporters to establish TAP\'s status as
legitimate trainer.
As I have said in the past, the burden is really on you at this point to
continue to pursue the details of the die off. Autopsies were performed on all
3 deceased animals. Blood samples were drawn. Were these samples frozen? The
burden is actually on you and others who would discredit TAP to insist that
these frozen samples be retested in 07. Who knows what they might find?
While your treatment of the 02 die off was at times sublime, I must comment
without rancor that your contention that TAP is only \"doping\" (your word) the
graded stakes runners is ridiculous. This contortion of fact can take its place
next to the Bush Administration\'s WMDs and its predecessor of a half century
ago,the \"Domino Theory\", the military industrial complex\'s raison d\' etre
for the waste of lives and money in Southeast Asia.
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chuckles
your opinion on lawyer ron this weekend?
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Richie, autopsies were done supposedly, but did you ever see the results? What is Chuckles or anyone else to do when they don\'t release the results? There was never another word about what happened. Since Pletcher claimed that it was likely due to a patch of grass they all ate from, you\'d think that NYRA would\'ve been worried about what was living in that patch of grass for the sake of future horses. Never heard they did anything about that either.
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>Part of Plech\'s doping modus operandi has always been that he continues to \"treat\" his Grade I stars when backing off on the rest of his stable.<
This is one of the most ridiculous things you\'ve said on this issue. It was just a year or two ago when many of TP\'s very best stakes horses were misfiring at CD during the week of the Derby that people were saying he backed off because of new testing for Graded Stakes. Then when his horses ran poorly in the Derby it was supposedly for the same reason. The reality was that if you understood some of the more subtle aspects of their trips I believe all but one ran well and the other got hurt in the race and was out for a very long time.
This is all actually very simple.
There are many trainers where the evidence of chronic \"illegal\" performance enhancement is very high. TP is not one of them. That doesn\'t mean he isn\'t using illegal drugs now or hasn\'t used them in the past, but there are very LOGICAL reasons for his stats as a trainer and the performances of most of his horses. That\'s not the case elsewhere. So the burden is on those that think he is doing something illegal to PROVE it. The problem is that his critics refuse to acknowledge that or can\'t understand it. They would rather just hurl accusations.
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>chuckles
your opinion on lawyer ron this weekend?<
I can give you the answer to that.
If he fires another big race, it was drugs on.
If he throws in a dud, it was drugs off.
These are the things that won\'t be a factor in his analysis.
1. As a 3YO, LR put up a couple of fast figures despite an inability to relax well and despite being rank on a few occasions.
2. He is a 4YO now and he has been relaxing well.
3. He is coming off a fast lifetime top and wouldn\'t be the first horse to \"mean revert\", \"bounce\" etc...
4. Reasonable people can disagree about just how fast his last race was to begin with.
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I hate to support the Clown, but what good would it do if the Clown was able to provide you with solid proof that TAP was and or is doping. What would really happen? It\'s really a sad state of affairs, he\'s probably given another vacation, which he fights in court and doesn\'t serve for another 2 years later. Look at Biancone, 15 day vacation, does this penalty PUNISH in any shape or form? Heck when TAP was on his last vacation he gained business!
http://news.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=40531
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The Biancone suspension was for a May infraction of a class B drug. The issue still PENDING with Biacone is far more serious but his guilt or innocence has not been resolved.
Mike
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Rags friend told me that Len Friedman feels Lawyer Ron will regress big and is a toss. From the pole at that distance at the SPA, LR has a substantial tactical edge.
Tricky Ricky is sneakily as deadly as ever and I\'m looking at him seriously.
Mike
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I don\'t know what would happen.
This is an industry problem (both legal and illegal drug use). The industry as a whole can\'t bring itself to put the horses and the fans ahead of the economics. There may be some people with noble intentions, but as a group IMO they are a despicable lot.
Personally I don\'t mind suspicions etc... I\'m probably one of the few people that enjoys almost all of Chuckles contributions. But the constant TP attacks get a little tiresome after awhile. He\'s one of the few trainers where it\'s at least possible to logically conclude his performance is related to the best stock, access to the best help etc... skill at spotting horses, and hard work.
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Street:
At the time of these deaths I never really thought of connecting them in the
way that CTC has and to be honest I wasn\'t aware that the stakes winning filly
had also died at about the same time that Left Bank and Warner\'s fell ill.
The one explanation which may be ruled out by men of logic is coincidence.
I wasn\'t even aware of the \"patch of grass\" theory.
Were blood samples frozen? I do not know, but tests are available now which
would detect substances which might not have been detectable in 2002.
I do not think there was any extensive investigation of the \"die off\" in terms
of looking for trainer or veterinary malfeasance, because TAP\'s reputation and
track record are relatively spotless. The man has saddled over 15,000 runners
and has one positive, for mepivocaine(sp?). (The unsettling thing about the
mepivocaine(sp?) positive is that both Scott Lake and Rick Dutrow also were set
down for mepivocaine(sp?) positives in the last couple of years).
My point here is that imagine if the die off had occurred in the barn of one of
the usual suspects from days past, such as Ferriola or Moschera or Oscar,or one
of the latter day miracle workers such as Cole Norman, or the man currently in
the cross- hairs, Patrick Biancobra.
If anything unseemly was found in the 3 autopsies, if NYRA\'s action ever
elevated to the level where they could be considered an investigation, you can
be certain that any findings which may have reflected badly on Racing would
never have seen the light of day; the cover up is always more evil than the
crime.
Nothing will likely ever come of these 3 unfortunate and mystifying deaths,
except that maybe the dialogue which they have spawned will bring us closer
to having a level playing field.
Last chance saloon for me at the Spa Saturday-- the late Pick 4 looks very
playable and I will have to catch a decent one to get even and out for
the meet.
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>At the time of these deaths I never really thought of connecting them in the
way that CTC has and to be honest I wasn\'t aware that the stakes winning filly
had also died at about the same time that Left Bank and Warner\'s fell ill.
The one explanation which may be ruled out by men of logic is coincidence.
I wasn\'t even aware of the \"patch of grass\" theory.<
I thought they didn\'t die of the same thing??????
You would think that if there was a common cause, there would be a common reason for death regardless of whether it was bad grass or bad drugs.
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RICH Wrote:
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> chuckles
>
> your opinion on lawyer ron this weekend?
Rich, I\'m extremely leery of him.
Factually, he\'s coming off a super top. Including some wide. He\'s coming back on relatively short rest for a Plech. Caveat, this horse has a history of Iron Constitution.
He will undoubtedly be favored and probably be odds on in the 4-5 range, perhaps just over even money.
Plech is struggling of late and there is some reason to believe his stable has been predominantly \"dope off\" but its incredulous to believe that Plech would be running Ron back in 4 weeks after that previous effort without an edge, so I am concluding he will be \"maintained\" in the Allday method with the barn conducting itself in a manner to elicit another big effort.
In other words, I\'m reading him \"Crank On\", but tempering that with the reality of prospective poor return coupled with the risk of last race induced stress.
If Ron\'s last race was as big as it appears, the Woodward could be his final start. He has worked well, but the real running is where the keratin meets the polyurethane.
My problem is not betting against Ron. The issue for me is separating the others.
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CTC - Interesting , IMO- he gave almost a years worth of development last time in that one race , gets the minimum of rest for this and we know these types of numbers can hurt horses but my feeling is he handle\'s it and stays at this relative level of ability because of his really solid 4 yo numbers .
That being said , Lawyer Ron\'s price will be too dull for a win bet and it is definitely a big question whether that last one got him or not ...
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Chuck,didn\'t you predict that Ron wouldn\'t run again??????????? Even with Todd\'s second best rider Ron will kick some serious ass. John V. needs the dope,not the horse..........
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I think Chuck states a valid projection in assuming Ron will \"fire\". And I think that makes almost anything except Brass Hat second to him impossible for me. He is the quickest horse and doesn\'t have to lead, saves the ground. The only thing that isn\'t perfect is the fact that he has to leave and make sure he doesn\'t have to lead. That is the only thing against him here that I see. The dope aside, he was meant to be best of these. And as I remember from \'02, nobody was waiting. Left Bank ran lights out at 7f that year, and at 9f. Wind up and FIRE.
So, he scares me here. I think he\'s best and while he doesn\'t have EVERYTHING his way, lots of it is.
Attila\'s Storm is clear speed and a look alike to the race against Proud Tower Too, would be a potential winner here, that distribution. If Baffert doesn\'t have Midnight Lute over trained, he comes at 7f. Beaten 2 by Latent Heat at 7f is not shabby. He seems like the finish to me.
At DEL, it really seems to me that JB got it right on - it\'s not impossible that Summer Doldrums could get lucky and get through inside, and that he wants this distance over longer. Strike the Deal \"looked\" outrageous last time, ran big shorter and longer. Sire is really something. I thought Nobiz Like Shobiz ran good last time, because he moved when asked late. He could easily be in the exacta and that ruins that deal for me - Strike the Deal is a deal at 7/2 here. He doesn\'t have to win, but Red Giant ran pretty good in CHGO.
It is a job worthy of Julien Leparoux to have to time his Price Tag finish vs her stablemate, Precious Kitten, who looks like a lock to me because she is the only speed natural to this distance. And I think Lady of Venice is obviously this generations\' late move at 8f on firm ground, filly. So, losing to her a length makes you beat Price Tag? I don\'t see how you could bet Price Tag if she is favored. Bobby\'s horses can run 1-2 here. At no price.
I would love to see a very fast track and bet Attila\'s Storm and get 7/2 on Strike the Deal, and sit down. It will be a mark of character if I resist playing Precious Kitten, because she can\'t be a real deal, but \"control\" issues can raise their ugly heads at the end of the day, so ..discipline is good defense.
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Even if he does \"kick serious ass\", he will be doing so at about 4-5, with the discussed bounce risks. That is a very risky proposition. Then, provided he does win, for second place, that is a heckuva competitive bunch in there with him. Essentially, they\'ve taken turns beating each other. Risky Ron-all-all-all? I don\'t bet that way.
I did mention Ron gave me a sense of Deja Vu and that I would not be surprised if he did not run again. He hasn\'t won yet, nor has he yet finished another race.
One thing I am sure of. He will be fully \"Cranked\".
spa Wrote:
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> Chuck,didn\'t you predict that Ron wouldn\'t run
> again??????????? Even with Todd\'s second best
> rider Ron will kick some serious ass. John V.
> needs the dope,not the horse..........
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If he\'s not the best horse in the country right now, tell me who is. His last two races are excellent. ALL of his races this year are very good. I think Holthus won a million dollars with this horse when he wasn\'t even running that fast. He\'s to be commended for that. Pletcher has moved him up significantly.
We all know any horse can lose on any given day. And, as brittle as they are today, any horse could break down. But, if you\'re interested in handicapping rather than reading tea leaves, you toss this horse today at your own peril. There all pointing for the race on Oct. 27, so if Petcher saw the slightest negative thing about him, he wouldn\'t be entered today.
He\'ll probably be odds on so, if you want to find value in the race, you\'ll have to hook him up.
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Ron was a good horse, so you can\'t give Plech too much credit, but do agree he has been moved up some. How is the issue.
The interesting part of this race is that Plech lost two races yesterday and his overall Spa percentage is sinking like the Titanic. On Woodward Day the trainer with \"all the horses and all the ability\" only has a couple horses in the Woodward. Plech is definitely ducking right now, but I\'m certain Ron is well intended and will be higher than a kite.
Bally Ache Wrote:
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> If he\'s not the best horse in the country right
> now, tell me who is. His last two races are
> excellent. ALL of his races this year are very
> good. I think Holthus won a million dollars with
> this horse when he wasn\'t even running that fast.
> He\'s to be commended for that. Pletcher has moved
> him up significantly.
>
>
> We all know any horse can lose on any given day.
> And, as brittle as they are today, any horse could
> break down. But, if you\'re interested in
> handicapping rather than reading tea leaves, you
> toss this horse today at your own peril. There all
> pointing for the race on Oct. 27, so if Petcher
> saw the slightest negative thing about him, he
> wouldn\'t be entered today.
>
> He\'ll probably be odds on so, if you want to find
> value in the race, you\'ll have to hook him up.
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Chuckles, you\'re like Captain Ahab. If we all individually submitted a list of suspect trainers I think there would be remarkable similarity between the names on the various lists. Why single out or focus on Pletcher?
You say the important thing is how he moved the horse up. That\'s exactly wrong. Somewhere on this website I think it says words to the effect that this game consists of two questions. 1. How fast can this horse run. 2. How fast is he likely to run today. That\'s exactly right. All the rest is talk.
I posted earlier today in response to the post that said someone at Ragozin said Lawyer Ron would bounce. Was there any evidence that this was likely? No, other than that he ran very fast last time (and the time before that for people who pay attention - even though he lost). There are oodles of functioning horseplayers who don\'t believe there\'s any such thing as bounce.
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Chuck Less the Clown: nowhere in the history of the Turf do we find the exploits of the name Chuckles the Clown or whatever your name is. And whereas you may have selected the winners of some Derbys, you did not WIN them.
As for me, there are plenty of references to my exploits and there are also many stances of where I took stands against cheaters.
If I thought for an instant that Todd Pletcher was a cheater I would a) never have given him a horse to trainer and b) if I found out later, I would take my horses away from him.
I put my money where my mouth is.
You have no standing in this game other than as an Internet troll.
And furthermore I hope you lost your ass in the Woodward betting against the number one racehorse in the land. Serves you right, crackpot.
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If anything unseemly was found in the 3 autopsies
The insurance companies wouldn\'t have paid out a dime.
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> Plech is struggling of late and there is some
> reason to believe his stable has been
> predominantly \"dope off\" but its incredulous to
> believe that Plech would be running Ron back in 4
> weeks after that previous effort without an edge,
> so I am concluding he will be \"maintained\" in the
> Allday method with the barn conducting itself in a
> manner to elicit another big effort.
Chuckles:
We miss you so much on the, \"Aliens Are Alive And Living In Roswell\" site.
Please. Come home to us.
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Sight:
I do not think that the entities which underwrite equine mortality policies
were on the cutting edge of performance enhancing substances and methods which
may or may not have had anything to do with the deaths of 3 Pletcher runners
following peak performances in 2002. Equine insurers then and now feel much
more at home with all too frequent instances of compound fractures, colic and
laminitis, with starting gate and paddock injuries, with animals cast in their
stalls.
I think it is fair to say that these insurers (or single insurer, if that was
the case) had never been confronted with three deaths of this nature in such a
close time sequence; indeed, insurers may not have looked at the demise of these
3 runners as being related.
In between the time that Left Bank was retired and the time he died, Thorograph
poster Jurmala Berzins, posting on September 21, 2002, said the following:
\"How about putting up (Left Bank\'s TG) seeing that he\'s retired. A good example
of EPO and who knows what else at work\". CtC isn\'t alone in Roswell.
I will say it again, knowing of course that nothing will come of it: Were blood
samples from the 3 deceased animals drawn? Were they frozen? Could these samples
be subjected to Racing\'s 2007 state of the art (probably only one step behind
the successful cheaters) \"supertesting\"? (Since these cases are closed, and
Racing could only suffer from the conduct of such tests, they will never be
undertaken.)
Interesting, Sight, that in a related post you respond to CtC\'s allegations of
blood doping by saying that NYRA has been testing for that... since 2003.
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time for pletch to have the good dr. find him a new undetectable drug.
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>> Equine insurers then and now feel much more at home with all too frequent >instances of compound fractures, colic and laminitis, with starting gate and >paddock injuries, with animals cast in their stalls.
>>I think it is fair to say that these insurers (or single insurer, if that was
>>>the case) had never been confronted with three deaths of this nature in such >>a close time sequence
With all due respect to you personally, both the above statements are nonsensical and untrue. My assessment is based upon years of personal experience.
I think it admirable that those that wager on horses take an interest in the problem of drug abuse in horse racing. It is present, it is not rare, it needs to be stopped.
Those whose only contact and knowledge of horses and the TB industry is via wagering DO have a valid vested interest, and deserve to be heard, in my opinion.
However, serious discussion has to be based within the parameters of reality.
It is painfully and increasingly obvious that many on this list have little to no factual knowledge about what they are talking about.
Much of what is posted here is simply absurd and illogical to the extreme.
If one is going to publically accuse a trainer of giving a horse \"X\", the argument would bear weight if the accuser were smart enough to both choose an \"X\" that can give the response that the accuser says was observed, and to choose an \"X\' that isn\'t tested for.
If people want to create conspiracy theory out of the deaths of horses, I would suggest that they don\'t make themselves look completely and relentlessly foolish by obviously not being familiar with horses, what they can die of, how that can occur, how diagnosis are arrived upon, whether the diseases can occur and progress as published or not, if the published facts do or do not fit \"logic\" and reasonable explaination, what is tested for during necropsy, etc.
There are trainers out there with multiple drug positives of significant, performance-altering drugs. I never see their names mentioned here.
I do see alot of amateur CSI, and public character assassination, via internet discussion board.
I have no respect whatsoever for the people who come to this message board, and, in front of hundreds of others, while hiding behind their anonymity, publically, repeatedly, relentlessly - over months and years - make serious and real accusations regarding the personal character and professional conduct of others.
Such statements can and do have serious ramification to the lives of your targets in the real world.
People say things on the internet that they would never state on radio, television, or in the print media, for fear of legal recourse.
Guess what guys - the internet is no longer the safe, anonymous haven you think it is.
I would not be surprised in the least if some nice lawyer contacted TBJB, got the names of some of the posters here, and hauled their moronic asses into court.
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Hey Barry,
I\'m not sure what the various figures makers are going to say, but I think LR ran even better this time. IMO, that was a legitimately great performance. There were no world beaters behind him (as was the case in the Whitney), but he buried a decent quality speed horse like Wanderin Boy and then drew off from the rest even more impressively. I hope he\'s not peaking too soon to deliver a top effort in the BC.
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Certainly a well reasoned response, and it brings up many issues. I\'d like to
work from the bottom. Because this is my nature, I will assume for the sense of
argument that each statement, especially the negative ones, are directed at me
personally.
1) \"I would not be surprised in the least if some nice lawyers contacted TGJB,
got the names of some of the posters here, and hauled there moronic asses into
court\".
This statement poses many fascinating issues about the Internet as it will be
treated under traditional evidence, libel and slander law. Maybe internet libel
will eventually be addressed through a uniform code, if it hasn\'t already. And
of course there are constitutional issues underlying the entire area of the
law...
I hate to discuss the law. Let me instead make three statements of opinion:
a)As hurtful as some of these accusatory statements aimed at these trainers may
be, I really do not believe that anything which was alleged or implied on the TG
Bulletin Board has resulted in any trainer suffering a pecuniary loss: I do
not think that any trainer has had horses taken away by an owner who heard
something negative from a TG poster on the TG Board. Nor have I seen TG Board
statements quoted or discussed in mainstream racing publications ie DRF or
BloodHorse.
b)I have not heard of any trainer saying something along the lines of \"You
know, its bad enough the railbirds give us grief during the races, now we got
the loonies chirping all day in the chat rooms\". Do you know, Sight, of a
trainer who has been affected fiscally or emotionally by this dialogue, or one
who\'s career has been impacted negatively?
c) I think TGJB is a smart enough businessman to have explored the limits of
his liability with regards to statements uttered on the TG Board (Jerry, if you
haven\'t maybe now would be a good time...).
Bottom line for me is (i) please show me a trainer or trainers who has (have)
been injured by chatting and blogging of the type heard on this board and (ii)
the law and the legal system are probably not ready to identify and process all
the \"crimes and misdemeanors\" being committed on the Internet.
2) \"People say things on the internet that they would never state on radio,
television, or in the print media for fear of legal recourse.\"
Sight, this is because most of us would never be seen or heard in the print or
electronic media due to the fact that:
3)\"It is painfully and increasingly obvious that many on this list have little
to no factual knowledge about what they are talking about\" and \"much of what is
posted here is simply absurd and illogical to the extreme\". Ignorant, absurd and
illogical will usually only get you in the media if you are holding hostages.
4)\"There are trainers out there with multiple drug positives of
significant,performance- altering drugs.I never see their names mentioned here\"
Then you have only been reading my posts selectively. I am especially quick to
mention Richard Dutrow and Scott Lake, only because whatever attention I pay is
to the NY circuit and these 2 trainers were sanctioned most frequently, a
matter of public record. Usually when I mention Richard and Scott, I am not
attacking these men personally (I have taken shots at Richard for never seeming
to acknowledge his father), but rather I am pointing out what a travesty the
rules of racing are as they pertain to medication violations. Richard, Scott
and others just do not seem to be really penalized -- they never seem to lose
owners or horses, and they continue to conduct their daily operations through e-
mail and cell phone. It is especially galling to me that Richard continuously
waives right to appeal and takes a shortened suspension. How many times do they
let you play this card?
I personally have made some tough statements about Biancone, but he apparently
has been excluded from racing in Europe and Hong Kong, and now faces the music
here in the United States.
I\'ll rip Doc Harthill a new one any chance I get, but Billy Reed already did
this a few years back in the Louisville Courier Journal.
With regards to a lengthy suspension dealt to Assmussen and a shorter one given
to Todd Pletcher last year, my only comment is that the trainer responsibility
rule, applied strictly, is not a good fit in the case of trainers such as Steve
and Todd who are trainers of record for strings of horses that they sometimes
only see once a week.
And if you were reading carefully, you may have seen that I jumped to Bill
Mott\'s defense when his methods were called into question recently on this
board.
I think, Sighthound, what really has you in this confrontational state, is my
constant mention of the 3 Pletcher animals dying within a short time frame. I
would be fascinated to read any reports, whether generated by veterinarians,
insurance companies or the New York State Racing and Wagering Board. I would be
fascinated to know if these 3 deaths were considered to be somehow related at
the time of any investigation that was conducted. I am just curious that is all.
You do not hear me saying that anyone intentionally killed those animals; I
even pointed out in a post that Left Bank was colic prone, having colicked as
a 2Y0 and having undergone surgery to remove a portion of his intestine. I was
trying to view any available facts. Being ignorant, absurd and illogical should
not preclude me from trying to understand things better.
I hate to play this card, but:
5) \"...My assessment is based upon years of personal experience... I think it
admirable that those that wager take an interest in the problem of drug abuse in
racing...those whose only contact and knowledge of horses and the TB industry
via wagering DO have a vested interest, and deserve to be heard, in my opinion\".
With all due respect, between 1978- 1987 I was licensed by State Racing Boards
in Louisiana, Kentucky, Florida, Ohio,New Jersey and Pennsylania. I worked
basically 7 days a week at tracks and training farms in these states; I worked
in various capacities which gave me a fair knowledge of horses and trainers. I
held a trainers license for 3 years, and saddled maybe 90 runners (my win
percentage was somewhere between Jamie Sanders\' and Bill Mott\'s)(to be quite
honest it was a lot closer to Jamie\'s).
My point of giving the above bio is not to call attention to a less than
distinguished career on the backside which ended 20 years ago; rather I am
trying to lay a foundation for stating my OPINION that these 3 deaths were
somehow related and thereby not coincidental or random. If someone will provide
documentation of the alleged \"patch of grass\" theory, I would certainly welcome
the opportunity to review it.
The 4 major team sports in the US are spectator sports, though none would be
naive enough to say that their popularity isn\'t at least partially driven to an
extent by people who wager on these sports; these 4 sports would survive the
absence of wagering.
Racing would not survive the absence of wagering. The vested interest that you
say horseplayers\' have in Racing is something more. While the \"insiders\" may
resent the input of horseplayers, may scoff at the ignorant tone of their voice
when it comes to horses and issues involving racing, the truth is some of the
stupidest sumbitches I have ever met tend to be the ones who are \"sending it in\"
with abandon. Their opinion and their participation are both important to
racing.
Sight, you have rope- a -doped me and I am now exhausted on the entire issue
of 3 dead in \'02. I will continue to sniff around, to see what record remains.
Since I work a 60 hour week and spend another 12 or so hours each week trying
to improve my golf game, I am resigned to coming not much closer to the truth.
One last comment. A student once walked to the wisest professor he knew bearing
a question:
\"Professor\" the student asked \"What is more harmful, ignorance or apathy?\"
To which the professor replied \"I don\'t know, and I don\'t care\".
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Because this is my nature, I
> will assume for the sense of
> argument that each statement, especially the
> negative ones, are directed at me
> personally.
Naw. I did comment directly to your post as it concerns the insurance statement. I took issue with the statement, certainly not the person making it (insert friendly, hand-shaking emoticon here).
The rest of my post I intended to be pissed-off but generalized editorializing about the nature of recent discussions at large.
Drug abuse - this topic certainly needs to be discussed, it won\'t go away. And it shouldn\'t.
But I think the majority of people on this board are more intelligent than average (or they would not gravitate to TG products), and I would hope we can embrace less, \"Hahaha, white Mercedes musta been there\", in favor of a more serious, factual and educational dialogue.
The wagering community doesn\'t currently garner much respect from horsemen, yet it needs to invited to the table on this topic, as it has much to offer.
I\'m out on this for now, gentlemen.
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Richibee, you make good points, thank you for your comments.
Edit: that sounds arrogant. How about this: good post.
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Sight:
I appreciate your commentary and understand your concerns.
When I said I was going to take some of the comments personally, that was
basically a way of saying that I was responding on my own behalf and speaking
for no one else.
Seems like there is real money to be made in listening to the radio--good job
TGAB.
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For the purpose for which Lawyer Ron, he has fulfilled the promise he held at 3 and not only has run one defining race at 4, but confirmed that form in the Woodward.
Whether he can maintain this fine edge is debatable.
Whether he has gone from a gamble as a racehorse to a certain money maker at stud is a matter of fact.
He does have a good race over the Monmouth Park track. This is a plus. A mile and a quarter appear to be within his range.
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Good post. Thumbs up to Sighthound as well. Good reading.
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Back from Saratoga, and I just want to make one quick comment on this string-- you ain\'t gonna see a lwasuit about the drug comments on this board, most certainly not involving me. I\'m PRAYING for that to happen, and certain individuals-- who may have discussed the situation with lawyers-- must know why. I can think of nothing better than being in a situation where a) I can subpeona all of the records of trainers and vets, and depose them under oath, b) get to show the world in a well publicized trial the before and after TG figures of horses that were moved up (prety good publicity, that), and c) correlate a) and b).
Aside from which, as Richie has pointed out, it\'s awful tough to prove damages. I went through that when I talked to lawyers about the lies the Ragozin office and operatives were saying about us, and we had that stuff on tape.
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Truth is an absolute defense, but no one wants to go to court. There is no real justice in Court, what occurs there is conflict resolution.
The oxygen cycle is the primary focus now on the Tour de France. There\'s only so many ways to get more performance out of muscle. Sure the dilators are a factor, but they really don\'t increase the oxygen carrying capacity of the blood. They increase the volume of air passing the lungs. EPO was/is a novel way of increasing oxygen carrying red blood cells and it had/has risks. Many experimenting trainers lost horses, including Plech. I believe the dopers are into traditional Tour de France blood packing now. Transfusions/injections from donors and blood removed from the subject and later reintroduced. There\'s more work and expense with transfusions, but the results are more predictable.
This issue will be addressed when the Tour stakes out the procedure. They will set the agenda and Horse racing will follow. One test sure to develop is Red Blood Cell Count thresholds similar to Carbonate thresholds. We need some basic thresholds in place unless Lawyer Ron is to win every major race by 5 plus lengths.
I haven\'t heard that Horse Racing tests for Donor Blood. They better get on it fast.
CtC
TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Back from Saratoga, and I just want to make one
> quick comment on this string-- you ain\'t gonna see
> a lwasuit about the drug comments on this board,
> most certainly not involving me. I\'m PRAYING for
> that to happen, and certain individuals-- who may
> have discussed the situation with lawyers-- must
> know why. I can think of nothing better than being
> in a situation where a) I can subpeona all of the
> records of trainers and vets, and depose them
> under oath, b) get to show the world in a well
> publicized trial the before and after TG figures
> of horses that were moved up (prety good
> publicity, that), and c) correlate a) and b).
>
> Aside from which, as Richie has pointed out, it\'s
> awful tough to prove damages. I went through that
> when I talked to lawyers about the lies the
> Ragozin office and operatives were saying about
> us, and we had that stuff on tape.
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Chuckles,
Finally, a productive post with a practical method for testing for blood doping, rather than the usual accusations. At least until the end when you spoil it with another groundless accusation concerning Lawyer Ron.
Bob
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Chuckles,a one note song..............we\'ve got big money tomorrow at Del Mar,can you give us a break for 24 hours??????????
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>>>> you ain\'t gonna see a lwasuit about the drug comments on this board, most certainly not involving me. I\'m PRAYING for that to happen, and certain individuals-- who may have discussed the situation with lawyers-- must know why. I can think of nothing better than being in a situation where a) I can subpeona all of the records of trainers and vets, and depose them under oath, b) get to show the world in a well publicized trial the before and after TG figures of horses that were moved up (prety good publicity, that), and c) correlate a) and b).
Good point.
Snake venom is a Category A penalty. We\'ll see.