Ask The Experts
General Category => Ask the Experts => Topic started by: shanahan on September 16, 2007, 11:24:01 AM
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there was an announcment at noon - anyone know what it was?
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Done for the year, but \"may\" come back next year.
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Thats disappointing. She was going to be a very attractive target in the Distaff.
She goes out the way she came in running a representative number in defeat.
shanahan Wrote:
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> there was an announcment at noon - anyone know
> what it was?
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It looks like she has a hairline fracture that happened during the stretch run of the Gazelle. Makes sense...when looking at that race Rags just did not look right down the stretch..not to take anything away from Lear\'s Princess but she is not in the same league as Rags when right...
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Aside from losing my BC P-4 key in the Distaff , Racing will miss this \" Great\" filly on the track - I will . Also , I really hope they don\'t run her again as a 4 yo - perhaps racing in Dubai is whats being considered . It\'s difficult at times to fully appreciate the pervasive effects of those Big or negative numbers on the health and well-being of the horses ...
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The Filly is gone forever.......
Mark it down.
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..and the loss of the world\'s finest turf horse Manduro to a career ending injury and Super Frolic\'s been put down. There\'s been better weekends.
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Waht happenned to Super Frolic...Is this the first breakdown on Tapeta?
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Super Frolic broke both sesamoids and had to be put down. It was not the first breakdown-- they had one in the first race run over the surface.
Dickinson called Ro (the owner, my client) to offer his condolences.
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When it rains - it pours . . .
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I\'m sorry Jerry. He was a bit of a star crossed horse, but under your vision he accomplished more than he would have otherwise.
TGJB Wrote:
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> Super Frolic broke both sesamoids and had to be
> put down. It was not the first breakdown-- they
> had one in the first race run over the surface.
>
> Dickinson called Ro (the owner, my client) to
> offer his condolences.
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marcus Wrote:
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> When it rains - it pours . . .
Now that Chuck has assured me my animals are safe, (I didn\'t specifically qualify my Love Birds), I would say I was happy when Todd started well, (although I thought his public comments about stretching out some of his early TRACTOR thighed types was disingenuous, and I feel a bit sorry for him now. After much success, (please don\'t anyone take offense), and being young, this is no doubt a hard season. The look on his face when he was bringing that filly over was way too intense. I get it though; 20 years ago I was that intense about assignment, every opinion, every everything. About his age, I turned to medication! FOR MYSELF.
Maybe horses came undone like this in the old days and we just didn\'t know. Didn\'t sires used to last longer, for instance? Shuttling? How much can guys stand? Even of the good thing? Probably less prostrate trouble, but..
OK, let\'s get real. Either the drugs stop or the game will, except for Sheiks running vs each other. It looks like it will take nuclear war to wake people up about giving their leaders carte blanche on killing people, and the game will have to melt as we know it for its leadership (KY BREEDERS AMONG THESE) to wake up.
skip
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Just so folks are clear, Rags to Riches had never faced Lear\'s Princess until her career ending defeat. Lear\'s Princess IS in a differenet league from Raqs to Riches, that league is the league of horses that Rags to Riches did not beat.
Rags cooled out fine after the race and per usual showed no sign of having been injured until she slept on the injury. Game race horses rarely feel these things and if they do they don\'t let them impede their run. If Rags lost time in that race you can measure it by milliseconds. Afleet Alex won the Belmont with a similar bone type injury.
The problem Rags faced is she was not quite as fast as given credit for and while she was away others matured into her zone.
Lost Cause Wrote:
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> It looks like she has a hairline fracture that
> happened during the stretch run of the Gazelle.
> Makes sense...when looking at that race Rags just
> did not look right down the stretch..not to take
> anything away from Lear\'s Princess but she is not
> in the same league as Rags when right...
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OK, It serves a purpose for us to have a chance to huff and puff here, but no matter how you measure it, anyone with eyes to see would have to give this filly some credit for 1) Her GR1 in California where she turned right leaving the outside gate and then being that wide and finishing on an old fashioned SO Cal track, if running vs goats. 2) The Oaks showed true grit on a funky track, and 3)she did win the Belmont on the square, no matter how \"tired\" the competition was and how well bred she was for the distance. The hype is understandable given the lack of stars and the need for something to say on TV and in sales catalogues world wide. The price of \"Flesh & Blood\" given the intention of DUBAI, inc to dominate and that family\'s cash position makes this certain, especially for their direct competition.
She is a nice horse, and they all mature at different times. Unfortunately we live in a \"marquee\" world and BEST is bantered when it would be best to just appreciate.
I will say that since I started being treated with hormones, some symptoms that used to be mysterious to me make more sense when they appear in equines. When the balance tips a little, I get short of wind, for instance, where before my current regimen I couldn\'t lift my shoulders so I don\'t bemoan, but back off. There must be a finer line than most realize. I also get little infections more often than I did but tissue that wouldn\'t heal, does. I am stronger, but testier.
My version was very much like Barry\'s in that I thought she was wrong when she tried and couldn\'t resist longer, when she threw her head slightly and seemed desperate. That\'s why I responded to a MSG from Barry with \"she has a problem\".
She ain\'t Ruffian,but in this day and age, a nice horse. Pretend you had no beef with anyone and watch her races like you would have when you were 9 yo. She isn\'t as fast as they want to believe and she did go wrong. Both are true.
skip
Chuckles_the_Clown2 Wrote:
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> Just so folks are clear, Rags to Riches had never
> faced Lear\'s Princess until her career ending
> defeat. Lear\'s Princess IS in a different league
> from Rags to Riches, that league is the league of
> horses that Rags to Riches did not beat.
>
> Rags cooled out fine after the race and per usual
> showed no sign of having been injured until she
> slept on the injury. Game race horses rarely feel
> these things and if they do they don\'t let them
> impede their run. If Rags lost time in that race
> you can measure it by milliseconds. Afleet Alex
> won the Belmont with a similar bone type injury.
>
> The problem Rags faced is she was not quite as
> fast as given credit for and while she was away
> others matured into her zone.
>
> Lost Cause Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > It looks like she has a hairline fracture that
> > happened during the stretch run of the Gazelle.
>
> > Makes sense...when looking at that race Rags
> just
> > did not look right down the stretch..not to
> take
> > anything away from Lear\'s Princess but she is
> not
> > in the same league as Rags when right...
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Chuckamy Road:
Give K-Mac credit, he\'s a smart enough horseman to realize that RTR, with
her trip to New Bolton and her missed workouts over the summer, may have been
vulnerable, especially carrying 7 extra pounds. He made the same sort of
judgment that TAP made in entering RTR in the Belmont Stakes, a judgment based
as much on the vulnerability of the competition as anything else.
Enough with the \"faster than given credit for\" line. You\'ve already shouted it
from the mountaintop. The board has already discussed the uncertainty built into
a number assigned to the only 1-1/2 mile race on the card, the only race of the
day when the clubhouse turn was raced over.
In an article wrapping up the Saratoga meet titled \"What a Difference Two
Decades Makes\", Steve Crist noted that the breed was far from improving. Set
against this stark reality, you have a filly sired by a Belmont winner and out
of a mare who produced a Belmont winner. Said filly won, in addition to the
Belmont Stakes,3 other Grade 1 stakes against her own gender,dominating all 3
races.Call it what you want-- class, quality, superiority-- if you love Racing
you hope that if Racing survives and flourishes as something more than a
carnival sideshow, this filly becomes a foundation for champions in many
generations.
Not only did her Belmont win reaffirm her pedigree, it also reaffirmed a lesson
we have all learned about racing-- that when any animal, no matter how good, is
pitched into a tough spot (ie, at an extended distance, a filly against colts,
against classier competition) said animal may win the day but will have to pay
the price in the future. I think the terminology on the other board is \"knock
out race\". On that level, even with the time off RTR was given,
Saturday\'s result was not shocking.
I think even Jerry Brown, Len Friedman and Barry Irwin could agree that RTR is
a brilliant specimen, though Len and Jerry probably wouldn\'t agree as to how
fast she really was. Given a consensus such as this, your subtle attempts to
discredit this runner create the possibility that you will have credibility
problems on the level of a certain current administration.
Although most of us have shamefully had to adjust our standards for \"Greatness\"
in thoroughbreds, there should be no shame in acknowledging greatness when we
encounter it. Based on her five race, six month campaign which culminated on
June 9th, I have no problem recommending RTR to the Greatness Committee for
consideration.
Need sleep now. An early tee time Tuesday, and Robert Trent Jones is waiting in
NJ to kick my tush.
Gotta go, love ya, bye.
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richiebee Wrote:
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> Chuckamy Road:
>
> Give K-Mac credit, he\'s a smart enough horseman to
> realize that RTR, with
> her trip to New Bolton and her missed workouts
> over the summer, may have been
> vulnerable, especially carrying 7 extra pounds. He
> made the same sort of
> judgment that TAP made in entering RTR in the
> Belmont Stakes, a judgment based
> as much on the vulnerability of the competition as
> anything else.
I\'ll acquiesce between the Belmont Stakes and Gazelle that Rags spiked two fevers and balked in a work. However she had the epitome of the Plech Allday preparation. She came into the race cranked.
> Enough with the \"faster than given credit for\"
> line. You\'ve already shouted it
> from the mountaintop. The board has already
> discussed the uncertainty built into
> a number assigned to the only 1-1/2 mile race on
> the card, the only race of the
> day when the clubhouse turn was raced over.
Maybe, but the difference is that I not only was the first one to contest that number, I predicted how her subsequent races vs her division would go and laid out the figure she would run post Belmont Stakes while continuing to hear glowing reports of Rags separation from her crop.
> In an article wrapping up the Saratoga meet titled
> \"What a Difference Two
> Decades Makes\", Steve Crist noted that the breed
> was far from improving. Set
> against this stark reality, you have a filly sired
> by a Belmont winner and out
> of a mare who produced a Belmont winner. Said
> filly won, in addition to the
> Belmont Stakes,3 other Grade 1 stakes against her
> own gender,dominating all 3
> races.Call it what you want-- class, quality,
> superiority-- if you love Racing
> you hope that if Racing survives and flourishes as
> something more than a
> carnival sideshow, this filly becomes a foundation
> for champions in many
> generations.
Generational foundation for champions? Thats hard to say. I really didn\'t think much of Jazil\'s Belmont either. I really believe the connection is due to a very bizarre and statistically impropable quirk of fate. Still the remote thing does happen every now and then. When it does you don\'t assign too much significance to it. Ok, Rags mare threw two of the weakest Belmont winners ever. There, are you happy now?
>
> Not only did her Belmont win reaffirm her
> pedigree, it also reaffirmed a lesson
> we have all learned about racing-- that when any
> animal, no matter how good, is
> pitched into a tough spot (ie, at an extended
> distance, a filly against colts,
> against classier competition) said animal may win
> the day but will have to pay
> the price in the future. I think the terminology
> on the other board is \"knock
> out race\". On that level, even with the time off
> RTR was given,
> Saturday\'s result was not shocking.
Thats the difference Richie. There are those here calling the Belmont a knock out race. I am stating vehemently that it was representative with the effort Rags just ran and representative with her earlier efforts too. Though I do have some issues with those earlier efforts.
>
> I think even Jerry Brown, Len Friedman and Barry
> Irwin could agree that RTR is
> a brilliant specimen, though Len and Jerry
> probably wouldn\'t agree as to how
> fast she really was. Given a consensus such as
> this, your subtle attempts to
> discredit this runner create the possibility that
> you will have credibility
> problems on the level of a certain current
> administration.
I don\'t follow that. I can\'t discredit Rags. All I did was point out her Belmont was not what it appeared and that she would not go on to great wins post Belmont. Thats not me discrediting her. Thats her discrediting herself.
> Although most of us have shamefully had to adjust
> our standards for \"Greatness\"
> in thoroughbreds, there should be no shame in
> acknowledging greatness when we
> encounter it. Based on her five race, six month
> campaign which culminated on
> June 9th, I have no problem recommending RTR to
> the Greatness Committee for
> consideration.
She\'ll need to come back and prevail against handicap mares at a minimum to get on the greatness ballot.
> Need sleep now. An early tee time Tuesday, and
> Robert Trent Jones is waiting in
> NJ to kick my tush.
>
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Chuck:
Thank you for a detailed and well reasoned response. My only comment is that
my opinion is that RTR has run her last race; I believe her value has already
been established.
Quirky is an interesting word with regards to Better than Honour\'s having thrown
Belmont winners (weak or not) in consecutive years, given the past history of
triple crown race winning siblings (no history). It is a strange situation
indeed, that as an unprecedented occurrence, it will be hard to evaluate BTH\'s
back to back Belmont winner producing double in the scheme of things.
I guess it is just sentimental on my part to think that I may have seen 2
runners who belong to a family which may or may not become legendary. This is
something that will be determined long after I hang up the binoculars.
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and besides, put your finger over Rags\' last race prior to the Gazelle, and what you have is a horse who\'s numbers were equal to LP at the weights. The negative number, the issues since, and I really can\'t see how anyone could bet Rags Saturday at all, especially considering TAP\'s last couple weeks. I am truly sorry that she is missing the BC Distaff too.
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\"Just so folks are clear, Rags to Riches had never faced Lear\'s Princess until her career ending defeat. Lear\'s Princess IS in a differenet league from Raqs to Riches, that league is the league of horses that Rags to Riches did not beat\"
Chuck,
...not a great point, Lears Princess went into that race as a dirt maiden.
Mike
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Ritchie wrote,
>This is something that will be determined long after I hang up the binoculars.
There were 7,000 people at Belmont on Saturday and Gulfstream is an indoor wagering outlet. Unless you need binoculars to watch your TV or look at your computer you can hang those up for good just like Rags to Riches will.....
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... Lord Chuckles of Clown - Does have a certain ring to it I must admit IMO . Is there a consensus on whether the Filly should have run Saturday - I\'m guessing yes .
The \'Binoc stuff is \"A\" material , I\'d say go with that - it actually might be helpful using them backwards to see that trakus stuff on the screen .
Personally I wasn\'t concerned about the trainers record at all when considering the race . Even if the stats are through the roof IMO - you still know ( for various reasons ) that the potential is strong now for issues with R2R ...
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This is one reason why I hate early retirements. If she doesn\'t make it back 100% she won\'t have a chance to prove how special she was.
IMHO, anyone that doesn\'t appreciate how special this filly was lacks the handicapping sophistication to make such judgments. I know that\'s about as arrogant a statement as anyone can make, but for the life of me I can\'t see how a debated figure for the Belmont translates into anything less than a spectacular performance anyway.
It was RTR that lost a ton of ground to Curlin, wouldn\'t let him get by when she got hooked, and finished in spectacular racehorse time for a 12F race on the dirt no matter what the early fractions. The top two were well clear of the rest of the field and it was another large gap to 4th. Those were not garbage can 3YO colts of the type that most fillies beat when it happens. They were and still are solid Grade 1 3YO colts.
Before that she was totally dominant over fillies her own age despite losing tons of ground on occasion and while earning superior figures for a 3YO filly at that time of year with her level of seasoning.
Was she Ruffian?
Of course not. No one is Ruffian.
However, in her brief career to date she was/is one of the most promising 3YO fillies I\'ve ever seen. Anyone that thinks she was 100% Saturday in defeat can\'t possibly know much about the difficulty of preparing a horse for a high quality stakes off a layoff, especially when there were repeated training interruptions, multiple fevers, and as Barry suggested she didn\'t look very good through the stretch while remaining game etc...
Sorry for the rant.
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Some interesting points made here. Just 1 question though. How many horses
have actually spoke to you? In English?
Racehorses are athletes and individuals. I think it\'s unfair to say all
athletes can break a bone in mid-performance and continue without hesitation.
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Personal Ensign, the undefeated champion mare owned by the Phipps family in the 1980s, was away from the races for almost a year after fracturing a hind pastern in the fall of her 2-year-old season. All she did was win the final 11 races of her career, seven of which were Grade 1 stakes.
\"I would say this is something she can come back 110 percent from,\" Pletcher said Monday morning. \"I don\'t know what Personal Ensign\'s fracture was like, but I\'m sure this one is less significant than that one.\"
It seems there is hope to be had.
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Greatness? Your standards are indeed quite low. She was very nice. Unfortunately, Todd & Co. decided to run her with a problem instead of giving her the time off she needed. Fortunately, they didn\'t injure her worse than she was.
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Flighted Iron Wrote:
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> Some interesting points made here. Just 1 question
> though. How many horses
> have actually spoke to you? In English?
>
> Racehorses are athletes and individuals. I think
> it\'s unfair to say all
> athletes can break a bone in mid-performance and
> continue without hesitation.
She didn\'t break a bone in mid-performance. The race Saturday pushed forward her previous problem to a state where she can\'t be raced now without significant risk of a catastrophic breakdown.
They tried to get her through just two more races. Didn\'t work out.
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\"Greatness? Your standards are indeed quite low. She was very nice. Unfortunately, Todd & Co. decided to run her with a problem instead of giving her the time off she needed. Fortunately, they didn\'t injure her worse than she was\"
Street,
Agree on the greatness part, but you must kidding that TAP/Tabor allowed RTR to race with a \"known\" problem going in.
Mike
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SS
\"She didn\'t break a bone in mid-performance. The race Saturday pushed forward her previous problem to a state where she can\'t be raced now without significant risk of a catastrophic breakdown.\"
And you know this for a fact ... how???
Bob
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How do you know the fracture didn\'t occur during the race?
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Street(NON)Sense,
To review, Rags to Riches suffered a fever that forced her to miss the Coaching Club American Oaks. A day after that race, Rags to Riches was pulled up less than a furlong into a five-furlong workout at Belmont. She spent several days at the New Bolton Center in Pennsylvania, where she underwent a battery of tests that showed nothing amiss. But Rags to Riches missed too much training time to make the Alabama.
On your behalf,I\'d like to call New Bolton and inform all the professionals
(with their years of education,experience and access to technology)that they
just missed this problem.My next call will be to Pletcher/Tabor telling them
the jig is up and you\'re on to them.
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Flighted Iron, sometimes you need to read between the lines and use a little common sense. In addition, if you keep your ear to the ground, you can find out things about the horses that aren\'t reported in the press.
I was out at Fasig looking at horses in July when I got a call from a friend (my vet) who witnessed Rags to Riches come off the track lame. A number of other people got similar phone calls, because the news didn\'t take long to spread among the salesgrounds. The next day, the press reported Pletcher saying the filly came down with a fever and would therefore not be going out to the track. The conversation around the salesgrounds that day went something like this: \"Did you see how Pletcher reported it as a fever?\" \"Yeah, right \".
After that, she was then reported pulled up by her exercise rider. You read about that one. After that, she was then reported to have gotten yet another fever and missed work. Do the math.
It\'s clearly obvious something was up with the filly but they couldn\'t find what it was. After multiple vet opinions, they decided to go forward with caution until such time as the problem presents itself in such fashion that it can be diagnosed. The race pushed the problem to the forefront - they now see the fracture that was brewing.
This isn\'t uncommon, to not be able to find exactly what is ailing a horse, or to move forward cautiously with a horse despite knowing that *something* is there. I know, I\'ve done it. Know others who\'ve done it. I wouldn\'t do it again though, not race, because my experience hasn\'t been positive as it\'s pushing your luck.
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CTC-- the problem Rags faced is that she gave seven pounds and ground loss to a filly with a 2 3/4 top and a good pattern. Nothing about this outcome was unlikely to TG users-- we put the winner up, I singled her in pick 3\'s-- and in no way does the result of the race in any way make it appear the Belmont figure or any others Rags ran are wrong (she in fact ran back to a figure she had run several times). As I made clear in detail (repeatedly) at the time, the Belmont fig is solid as a rock, and nothing that has happened since casts any doubt on it even slightly.
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\"This isn\'t uncommon, to not be able to find exactly what is ailing a horse, or to move forward cautiously with a horse despite knowing that *something* is there. I know, I\'ve done it. Know others who\'ve done it. I wouldn\'t do it again though, not race, because my experience hasn\'t been positive as it\'s pushing your luck\"
Street,
Agree it\'s done all the time, but not when they are worth 10-20 million, those get retired immediately.
Mike
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TGJB,
I don\'t disagree with anything you said, but even you would have to concede that coming into a Grade 1 race off a 14 week layoff against a solid and fit opponent, having missed works due to lameness, having 2 setbacks due to a fever, not acting right in the stretch run, and coming out of the race with a fracture, all indicate that it\'s highly unlikely she was at her best Saturday.
You sort of made it sound like pairing her back efforts indicates she ran as well as expected or to her current ability.
While that\'s certainly some possiblity, it seems like a pretty remote one to me.
This filly was/is a very lightly raced horse. She was developing nicely when she capped it off with that huge performance in the Belmont. Not that I was expecting her to run that way again. In fact I thought it was a mortal lock that she would be short because the goal was the BC and she had all those problems (though I thought she might win anyway).
I just think that tying the races of a developing 3YO in the spring to her race Saturday (many months later after she already demonstrated more) as a \"logical\" pair (if that\'s what you were implying) is not right. To me it was the accidental result of a superior and developing racehorse being short and having problems. She was also clearly winning with something in reserve in some of those spring races.
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I don\'t see how this can be disputed, although I\'m open, not being argumentative about it.
skip
fkach Wrote:
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> TGJB,
> I just think that tying the races of a developing
> 3YO in the spring to her race Saturday (many
> months later after she already demonstrated more)
> as a \"logical\" pair (if that\'s what you were
> implying) is not right. To me it was the
> accidental result of a superior and developing
> racehorse being short and having problems. She was
> also clearly winning with something in reserve in
> some of those spring races.
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Horses do talk to me. They talk very clearly through anecdotal experience. I can\'t count the number of horses that have won Grade I stakes and then retired due to incurring an injury in that last winning race. Add those that retired after finishing a game second or third and the evidence becomes overwhelming.
That said, horses talk very subtly about latent injuries pre race. They barely speak at all. I\'m not sure the hairline fracture was present during Rags to Riches delay in returning to the races post Belmont Stakes. I can\'t factor that. Street Sense says the underlying injury was already there. It may have been, if it was that doesn\'t change my view that top class, game, horses run through these injuries. If it was there then all the Kings horses and all the Kings men had less of an ability to discern it than one little 115 pound, horse loving, female exercise rider. She tried to tell them. Tim Richey was astute enough to discern Afleet Alex\'s issue. It wouldn\'t surprise me if it was there because I know Plech is not a real horseman and most vets aren\'t either. Plech is an organizer. He wouldn\'t know a horse was trying to signal him if it sent up smoke signals.
Street Sense Wrote:
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> Flighted Iron, sometimes you need to read between
> the lines and use a little common sense. In
> addition, if you keep your ear to the ground, you
> can find out things about the horses that aren\'t
> reported in the press.
>
> I was out at Fasig looking at horses in July when
> I got a call from a friend (my vet) who witnessed
> Rags to Riches come off the track lame. A number
> of other people got similar phone calls, because
> the news didn\'t take long to spread among the
> salesgrounds. The next day, the press reported
> Pletcher saying the filly came down with a fever
> and would therefore not be going out to the track.
> The conversation around the salesgrounds that day
> went something like this: \"Did you see how
> Pletcher reported it as a fever?\" \"Yeah, right
> \".
>
> After that, she was then reported pulled up by her
> exercise rider. You read about that one. After
> that, she was then reported to have gotten yet
> another fever and missed work. Do the math.
>
> It\'s clearly obvious something was up with the
> filly but they couldn\'t find what it was. After
> multiple vet opinions, they decided to go forward
> with caution until such time as the problem
> presents itself in such fashion that it can be
> diagnosed. The race pushed the problem to the
> forefront - they now see the fracture that was
> brewing.
>
> This isn\'t uncommon, to not be able to find
> exactly what is ailing a horse, or to move forward
> cautiously with a horse despite knowing that
> *something* is there. I know, I\'ve done it. Know
> others who\'ve done it. I wouldn\'t do it again
> though, not race, because my experience hasn\'t
> been positive as it\'s pushing your luck.
-
> This isn\'t uncommon, to not be able to find
> exactly what is ailing a horse, or to move forward
> cautiously with a horse despite knowing that
> *something* is there. I know, I\'ve done it. Know
> others who\'ve done it. I wouldn\'t do it again
> though, not race, because my experience hasn\'t
> been positive as it\'s pushing your luck.
I don\'t think this is possible in this TONE - there is no chance that they would take a chance past what logic would dictate,but they were worried for exactly the reasons you state. They had to do SOMETHING, and she is momre than vet cleared. You can\'t just stop at that point. A Grade One is a very \"sporting move\" though, as time to the BC is everything and treating the horse as a Ornament isn\'t on their menu, as it might have been for instance on Calumet\'s 60 years ago.
All I am saying is \"what could they do?\".
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I think that Chuckles is right on about the tone of Pletcher/Tabor as opposed to the Sheik who can afford in every way for the horse to wait or not play at all, unless he\'s right. I think he and Chuck and I \"hear horses\", and to show my apprecition, I wouldn\'t let them go to post in NY without me \"attending\" if at all possible. It seems from a far distance, in every way, that the family in Dubai loves horses, loves having the best horses, and that Bookmakers love horse racing and love horses that race.
skip
Tim Richey was astute enough
> to discern Afleet Alex\'s issue. It wouldn\'t
> surprise me if it was there because I know Plech
> is not a real horseman and most vets aren\'t
> either. Plech is an organizer. He wouldn\'t know a
> horse was trying to signal him if it sent up smoke
> signals.
>
> Street Sense Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > Flighted Iron, sometimes you need to read
> between
> > the lines and use a little common sense. In
> > addition, if you keep your ear to the ground,
> you
> > can find out things about the horses that
> aren\'t
> > reported in the press.
> >
> > I was out at Fasig looking at horses in July
> when
> > I got a call from a friend (my vet) who
> witnessed
> > Rags to Riches come off the track lame. A
> number
> > of other people got similar phone calls,
> because
> > the news didn\'t take long to spread among the
> > salesgrounds. The next day, the press reported
> > Pletcher saying the filly came down with a
> fever
> > and would therefore not be going out to the
> track.
> > The conversation around the salesgrounds that
> day
> > went something like this: \"Did you see how
> > Pletcher reported it as a fever?\" \"Yeah, right
> > \".
> >
> > After that, she was then reported pulled up by
> her
> > exercise rider. You read about that one.
> After
> > that, she was then reported to have gotten yet
> > another fever and missed work. Do the math.
> >
> > It\'s clearly obvious something was up with the
> > filly but they couldn\'t find what it was.
> After
> > multiple vet opinions, they decided to go
> forward
> > with caution until such time as the problem
> > presents itself in such fashion that it can be
> > diagnosed. The race pushed the problem to the
> > forefront - they now see the fracture that was
> > brewing.
> >
> > This isn\'t uncommon, to not be able to find
> > exactly what is ailing a horse, or to move
> forward
> > cautiously with a horse despite knowing that
> > *something* is there. I know, I\'ve done it.
> Know
> > others who\'ve done it. I wouldn\'t do it again
> > though, not race, because my experience hasn\'t
> > been positive as it\'s pushing your luck.
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She\'ll be back..............
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Rags ran the big negative number in the Belmont. Lets say the Gazelle was 6 weeks later, all numbers are the same. No issues with Rags at all, no lameness?, no missed works, no issues. She is now 1/5, I hate to tell you this but most TG users would have thrown Rags out, and the result would have been the same. That\'s why we use the sheets, to throw ouy vulnerable favorites off BIG Negative tops.
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I agree that many pattern readers would have tossed her anyway, but I don\'t see how you can certain the result would have been the same given that she may have been best Saturday anyway (ground loss) and IMO almost certainly would have run better if not for the training mishaps and the fracture. Of course we\'ll never know. This is just conversation. However, make those changes and I\'d take RTR.
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Beyer gave Lears Princess a 99.
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I do think she ran \"as well as expected\", which is to say there was no reason to expect her to run back to her top. As someone else on this string said (and as I said after the Belmont) there were plenty of reasons to bet against her next time out regardless, and all the other factors you mentioned (to say nothing of the weight spread and that Velasquez was sure to keep her ouside riding her as \"the best horse\") just made her an even better bet against. And yes, she did get the best figure-- but they don\'t pay off for that.
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TGJB,
I didn\'t expect her to run to her \"current\" top (whatever that is) either, but I didn\'t use her prior speed figures as an indication of what I thought her current top was.
To me, prior to the Belmont she was a lightly raced developing spring 3YO that was winning with \"speed in reserve\". With the additional passage of time, I thought it was very likely that her \"current top\" was better than all the figures she had earned prior to the Belmont and maybe even equal to the Belmont.
Like I said, because of all those other training issues, I didn\'t expect her to earn her top Saturday. But I did think that a performance somewhat better than anything other than the Belmont was fairly likely and that she could improve further from there.
I\'m not sure what the proper odds line was on the race. I didn\'t play because I didn\'t see enough value on the winner. I am just making the point that I think RTR is the better horse and could have won despite all the problems in her training and the probable trips if she didn\'t fracture her leg. (we can\'t know for sure)
Basically it took everything that could possibly go wrong plus more just to beat her a 1/2 length. That says something about what the probabilities actually were. Trips don\'t always turn out exactly the way they figure and suspect horses don\'t always fracture their legs. They both just happened this time.