Ask The Experts
General Category => Ask the Experts => Topic started by: covelj70 on May 18, 2008, 06:21:24 PM
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For me, the difference between the Belmont and the Preakness is that Big Brown won\'t be able to bounce and win. There will be three horses all capable of a negative number in the Belmont (Casino Drive, Tale of Ekati and Dennis of Cork),all indidentally are bred better for 1 1/2 than BB.
In the PReakness, he could (and maybe did) bounce 2 to 3 points and still win because no one else in the race could run a negative number. In the Belmont, he doesn\'t have that luxury. While 1 or 2 of the others capable of going negative may not pull it off, the other 1 or 2 could and that will present a big problem for BB.
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Hmmm, \"Capable of a Negative Number\"? At 12 poles without having run Negative at shorter distances. Do you really think so? You wouldn\'t be the first.
What if BJB ran a large negative in the Derby from the 20 hole because he had to in order to maintain position to unleash his run. And what if he ran a negative 1 in the Preakness under early and late restraint? In other words, what if he didn\'t bounce at all in the Preakness, but was merely asked for far less than asked for in the Derby?
BJB will have one drill for the Belmont. How he performs in that drill and his gallops will be the key. Obviously, one of his hooves could fall off during the running, but thats true of them all and for one upon whom I am on record.
covelj70 Wrote:
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> For me, the difference between the Belmont and the
> Preakness is that Big Brown won\'t be able to
> bounce and win. There will be three horses all
> capable of a negative number in the Belmont
> (Casino Drive, Tale of Ekati and Dennis of
> Cork),all indidentally are bred better for 1 1/2
> than BB.
>
> In the PReakness, he could (and maybe did) bounce
> 2 to 3 points and still win because no one else in
> the race could run a negative number. In the
> Belmont, he doesn\'t have that luxury. While 1 or
> 2 of the others capable of going negative may not
> pull it off, the other 1 or 2 could and that will
> present a big problem for BB.