Ask The Experts
General Category => Ask the Experts => Topic started by: dodie on August 22, 2008, 04:37:05 PM
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Race 7
I think this is essentially a two horse race, Sir Lowry and Prussian. I haven\'t seen the morning line yet, but . . .
Sir Lowry - 2/1 Quintessential steadily improving, well managed grass horse.
Prussian - 7/2 Again, well managed, good spacing
I then have the ITM\'s (all about 8/1 or 12/1 or so to win)
Baron Von Tap
Holiday Trip
Broadway Producer
Pennington
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6th - Hammock (12-1)
two firm turf runs, two 5.75\'s.
comes in on seven weeks, a strong category for the trainer, draws well, and returns to his preferred going.
5th - Uncle Indy is interesting at 8-1. two runs in the 7 range last year followed by two rough Sar trips. got caught behind a dawdling pace last over the inner and showed little. draws inside here, and could pop a new top with a sweeping 3 wide move over the Mellon.
Tizzy could also hit the board here at long odds (15-1 ml). 10 top last year, and two 8.5 runs this year. McPeek does well of the layoff, and does well with Albarado up (has to be the only one). post 2.
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I lke Balletti a little in the 6th. Penna is good off any kind of rest short or long.
Moved up big after the trainer change in the winter/spring. May be ready for another small move.
However will need it and a clean trip. This like all the other races is a tough one.
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I like those two in the fifth Michael D and I would add...Yuletide at the m/l price.
I\'m with you on Hammock in the sixth. Is that rail horse really going to be 3-1? Balletti doesn\'t strike me as great value. If it\'s FIRM...I will have to find room for Extra Zip at the price. Maybe Blue Lion a little? Just Julian looks like a threat off AEs. Tough race but could be some huge mutuels, may be worth the spread-out cost.
Looks like the fourth could be nice value too. I don\'t like any of the short priced horses in there. I think Gold Paegentry could move up, back to some of his better ones from last year. Tobruk and Cardiff Road look interesting too, and the latter looks like a win bet for me. May have to find room on the bottom of exotics for Triple Bogey Blues and the...15 if it\'s in.
Good luck. Deep card and how!
HP
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Michael D. Wrote:
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> 5th - Uncle Indy is interesting at 8-1. two runs
> in the 7 range last year followed by two rough Sar
> trips. got caught behind a dawdling pace last over
> the inner and showed little. draws inside here,
> and could pop a new top with a sweeping 3 wide
> move over the Mellon.
The switch to Rajiv could make a big difference. He\'s been rock solid riding in NY; he\'s patient and likes hanging by the hedges. Of course sometimes that leads to tough beats (Hard To Explain?..... AAAARGH!)
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I\'m gonna double key Hammock 12/1 and Picou 15/1 over several in here.
I\'m taking a shot at some supers with Parc Des Princes 3/1, Big Stick 8/1, Al Nasr Dream 12/1, Extra Zip 15/1, Baletti 7/2 underneath.
Real tough race and I probably should just stay out of it.
I\'m playing a little Pick 3 starting in Race 6 with both Hammock and Picou to Sir Lowry/Prussian/Whata Ya Mean to Indyanne.
Like most players, I enjoy Travers day. May as well get involved, even though the card is tough.
Good luck to all
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Al Nasr Dream in 6th has faced good ones in France. Kenneally/Leparoux should be ready first US start.
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Nice one HP and Michael D.
I threw the 10 in on top of the three you guys recommended but downsized from a Tri to and Exacta at the last minute.
Ouch again!!!
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Howz this. The lowest possible exacta payoff in the 6th race was $60.
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Silver Charm Wrote:
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> Nice one HP and Michael D.
>
> I threw the 10 in on top of the three you guys
> recommended but downsized from a Tri to and Exacta
> at the last minute.
>
> Ouch again!!!
re 5th - ouch indeed. I had the 2 and 3 on every exotic ticket, and the 10 underneath on about half. cashed not a penny.
Alan gave out the 2 as well, but was smart enough to save with the 10.
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Thanks SC. I did not make a dime. I don\'t feel like I played badly...came close on a few...oh wah wah wah! Yeesh. On some level you have to be a masochist to like this game! HP
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What was the last out # on the 10 as his sheet was missing from the book sold at Saratoga
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14 then a 9.