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General Category => Ask the Experts => Topic started by: richiebee on October 03, 2008, 03:52:02 AM

Title: Question for TGJB
Post by: richiebee on October 03, 2008, 03:52:02 AM: Jerry:

What is great about this board is being able to forget about the real world.

One thing I almost forgot is that you took a rather large future position
on Citizen McCain, the man \"W\" calls \"Hogan\".

As such, how did you feel, from a betting standpoint, when the Repubs looked to
the North and chose \"Caribou Barbie\" as the running mate?

[Very funny bit by Chris Rock on Letterman, talking about Sarah Palin: \"There
she is, and she got the moose, and the moose\'s head is all bloody, and Michael
Vick is like \'Why am I in prison?\'\"]
Title: Re: Question for TGJB
Post by: NoCarolinaTony on October 03, 2008, 08:56:45 AM: Richie,

Chris Rock (on Dave Lettermans show sponsered by the DNP,) should probably consider that what Michael Vick did was illegal and what \"The Librarian\" did was legal. Sorry to see Chris so confused. Kind of like trainers eh?

Strange laws - conflicting laws are everywhere.

NCT
Title: Re: Question for TGJB
Post by: TGJB on October 03, 2008, 11:50:40 AM: I got 10-1 that McCain would win the nomination, didn\'t bet the general. I said a few weeks ago (not here) that barring a terrorist attack or something like it, Obama wins. Note that the polls only count land lines, not young people who only have cells. Right now I make it about Obama minus 5 in the popular vote.
Title: Re: Question for TGJB
Post by: jimbo66 on October 03, 2008, 05:44:11 PM: How much McCain will you book at Obama -5.

You forgot another factor about polls, which you should have picked up from the last two elections. There is a 5 point bias or so built into the polls because many true \"conservative republicans\" have an almost paranoid hatred of the media and don\'t participate in either regular polls or exit polls.

GW lost the last two elections fairly handily based on exit polls and was behind in the regular polls.
Title: Re: Question for TGJB
Post by: TGJB on October 03, 2008, 05:55:55 PM: All the sophisticated polls take into account that about 60% of the responders are Democrats. What they can\'t account for are the \"Bradley effect\" (people who won\'t tell a pollster they won\'t really vote for a black guy), and cell phones.

I\'m not laying 5-- I\'m saying that\'s the right line. You want 2 1/2, we can talk.
Title: Re: Question for TGJB
Post by: Rick B. on October 03, 2008, 05:56:32 PM: Does McCain have a younger brother who can, ahem, \"deliver\" a whole state for him?

That would help negate the polls, too.
Title: Re: Question for TGJB
Post by: BenevolentDictator on October 03, 2008, 06:21:22 PM: It\'s like saying who is worse The G-Men or Rangers....oh and the Mets. Well we know that story.