Ask The Experts
General Category => Ask the Experts => Topic started by: covelj70 on October 14, 2008, 12:34:16 PM
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my opinion is that the work yesterday looked visually impressive and that if he takes to the track, he won\'t be beat but I can\'t bet a horse that hasn\'t run on the surface yet facing the toughest field he has ever faced.
This will be a tough one.
Hopefully I can be alive to him and others in the multi-race exotics because there\'s too many variables to bet the race straight up (my opinion).
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I thought the field he beat in last years Classic is tougher than this bunch.
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interesting question. Don\'t know about that. I think Go Between is a very very good horse on the surface they are running on. Put them both on dirt and we know what would happen but GB is the real deal on the poly (no pun intended).
I also think Student Council is as good as anyone was heading into last year\'s BC. He\'s won the big races out west on the poly and he ran a 112 beyer and a big sheet number in the Whitney (can\'t remember the exact sheet number). Awesome Gem who ran 3rd last year is back again and this year\'s euros look tougher than last year\'s euros.
throw col john into the mix who is as dangerous this year as Street Sense and Hard Spun was last year and I think that even with Big Brown, this is a pretty deep Classic Field.
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This race has quick footed Euro written all over it.
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ronwar Wrote:
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> I thought the field he beat in last years Classic
> is tougher than this bunch.
It was. Lawyer Ron, Hard Spun, Street Sense. Not sure Curlin is as good as he was last year. Yes, he\'s getting the job done. But I don\'t see the explosive turn of foot that I saw in last year\'s Preakness, JCGC, and Classic. He\'s grinding them out this year. Maybe he\'s getting smarter in his old(er) age.
That being said, the race is over Santa Anita\'s Pro-Ride, not Del Mar\'s polytrack or the synthetic crap SA had during the winter. Good Luck with any of the Euros or Go Between.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
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Joe.
When you say \"good luck\" with any of the Euros or Go Between, are you suggesting that you believe that they won\'t handle the surface?
As someone that generally has stayed away from the synthetic surfaces, can you provide a quick primer on the differences between the pro-ride and the other surfaces in terms of biases we expect to see. My head tells me to only play the turf races next weekend, but the devil inside of me knows better---and I am playing catch-up in terms of understanding which type of horses will handle the surface. Any help will be appreciated.
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Mon Guy,
There is no clear answer as to who will handle pro ride except the ones who already have.Many speculating that if a horse did well on cushion, poly,tapeta or turf, they will handle pro ride. I am not so sure.
An important thing with this surface is that all horses will wear plain shoes, no caulks, stickers, bends. I wonder how the shoe thing will affect horses that have not been wearing plain shoes(dirt horses). Also wonder if horses will be shod differently and if it really means anything.Lots of if\'s and I expect some chaos, which of course means that every chalk will whistle!
Mike
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Thanks for your insight.
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FWIW
courtesy of Bris, an note only 5% w/w at 1 1/16
2008 OAK TREE TRACK BIAS MEET(09/24 - 10/12)
Distance # Race % Wire Best Style Best Posts
6.0f Pro-Ride 35 11% P Middle
6.5f Pro-Ride 16 25% P Mid/Out
1 Mile Pro-Ride 11 18% P Outside
1 1/16m Pro-Ride 22 5% P Rail/Ins
Turf Sprint 10 10% S Mid/Out
Turf Routes 23 30% E Mid/Out
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Silver Charm Wrote:
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> This race has quick footed Euro written all over it.
Do they make those?
Do they have the \"Turbo\" badge on so we can pick \'em out?
\"quick footed Euro\"...sorry, that phrase just looks bizarre to me.
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You\'ve got a point Rick. How does anyone know how the Euros are going to run on the Pro-Ride? It\'s hard for me to imagine how anyone could possibly figure this out beyond guessing or just not liking the top U.S. entries.
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I have asked this question before ...Hopefully there is an answer..
Is there any past performance maker for Euro races that will give a detailed PP line (Position from start to finish of a race, like a US DRF line)? Not just the finish position and time of a euro runner with a comment.
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Rick-- congratulations on winning the Orlrans Fall Classic last weekend. Someone told me you actually finished first and second, took down 130k. Is this true?
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Yes, it\'s true.
I\'m in the process of writing a testimonial for TG, including a reference to the mind-boggling ROTW call on Sunshine for Life, which I (fortunately) had the good sense to use on both entries. Send me an e-mail addy via pm.
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The following was originally posted to @Derby; also posting here per suggestion:
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Howard Dennis wrote:
>Please note that Rick has always had a strong game and now has moved
>to the next level which is the Championship level.
Thanks for the kind words Howard, but what I\'ve been telling people is
that I was more or less Jay Trotter for a few \"very good\" days -- minus
the offer from Jennifer Tilly, of course. ;)
The actual credit for the win goes to my oldest son, David. He isn\'t
a horseplayer, but he tagged along this time and functioned as my
personal assistant for three days, taking on all tasks large and small
that sapped my energy and attention in previous tournaments. Willingly,
unflinchingly, did whatever I asked, and he always came back for more
work, with a smile on his face and a song in his heart.
David also kept me focused on the task at hand. A key moment Saturday
was right after we hit the $49 horse in the stake at Belmont. While I
was strutting around like a peacock, he was scanning the TV\'s and
comparing them to our schedule of races. \"DAD!\", he yelled, \"Get over
here! Didn\'t you want to play this horse in the 7th at Hawthorne?
They\'re gonna load now!\"
Yeah, I had a horse there. I scrambled to fill out the contest cards,
David got the bets in just before the gate opened...and Strait of
Mewsina put us over the top with $41.40 for the win.
Kid saved me from making a $20,000 error of omission. Thank you, my
first born son.
Rick Belanski
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Very cool, congrats!
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Rick B,
Nice score!Congrats.
Mike
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Rick,
Please remind me to pay attention next time you post picks on the board.
Something (directed to me) to the effect of, \"hey idiot who keeps posting picks that lose, here are the right answers.\"
seriously though, congrats, that\'s awesome.
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Mon Guy:
Most of my bankroll next weekend will be on the Turf races. I will play the Pro-Ride as I would dirt. My feeling is it will not play out like a polytrack or like Santa Anita\'s old synthetic surface. I also feel that polytrack success, as with a horse like Go Between, will be overbet.
The anchor on his back will be more of a problem for Curlin than the SA surface.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
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Rick:
Great job...congratulations.
Joe B.
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good man Rick.
keep it going through the BC!!!!
btw, I hated Adriano at 2-5 or 3-5 in that Haw race. spent the day biking unfortunately, and watched the race in disgust Sun night (though I still managed to phone in a Kee loser).
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Great score, Rick B. Vegas, Baby.
Also good job by Bombowitz with the Saturday analysis of the Athenia.
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Congratulations! Great score, and great story.
Bob
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Nice work Rick!
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Curlin is a big, heavy horse, he\'s a muscular grinder. He\'s not quick, but he has a high cruising speed and doesn\'t get tired. If Curlin is going to get beat, he\'s going to get beat by a horse who has a quicker turn of foot for an eighth of a mile and that horse is going to need to make a perfectly timed move at the far turn to steal the race. Curlin will be stalking and moving up into the far turn, if he gets beat its going to be by someone who sits behind him and sweeps up and uses his turn of foot to get by Curlin.
Curlin is so good that i just don\'t know if its a good idea to beat him in exa\'s and tri\'s...the best pool to beat him in, if that\'s what you are inclined to do, is in the pick anything\'s. You just need one horse to beat him to cash, you don\'t need him off the board like you do to hit a nice tri.
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imallin Wrote:
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> Curlin is so good that i just don\'t know if its a
> good idea to beat him in exa\'s and tri\'s...the
> best pool to beat him in, if that\'s what you are
> inclined to do, is in the pick anything\'s. You
> just need one horse to beat him to cash, you don\'t
> need him off the board like you do to hit a nice
> tri.
What are there, about 15 BC races?? If Curlin is that good, maybe you just don\'t waste your money trying to beat him. Unless you can find a couple legitimate chances to do that. Otherwise, save your ammo for better spots. There always are.
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Rick and HP.
If you watched the race you now know what a quick footed Euro looks like.
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You are one sharp guy Silver.
I posted this week that I liked Raven\'s Pass, Tiago and Colonel John.
Classy of you to remind us of your vague notion. I am humbled.
HP
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Glad to hear that HP.
My \"Vague Notion\"?? Read your original post and then you used Ravens Pass. Hmmmmm.
Anyway hope there was some to win on him.
If you mentioned Ravens Pass and I said this looked like a quick footed Euro race then we both said more about them than the Seminar.
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Here\'s the post I was referring to Silver. I would stick with what I originally said. I don\'t think anybody had any idea how the Euros would do on the Pro-Ride. Speculation at best. I thought Raven\'s Pass had a nice forward looking line. I did not like the others in the Classic.
1st and 3rd. Did not win. Hmmm yourself.
Posted by: HP (IP Logged)
Date: October 21, 2008 02:54PM
Even though this is a SATURDAY race - as far as the Classic goes...I could see Curlin getting beat. I don\'t LOVE the race, but I wrote down these three...
Raven\'s Pass
Tiago
Colonel John