Ask The Experts
General Category => Ask the Experts => Topic started by: Silver Charm on February 20, 2009, 02:31:13 PM
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Jerry any thoughts of revisiting this day on the heals of Dunkirks race yesterday. The entire day seeks to a little out of whack because of the This Ones For Phil race, time and resulting fig.
Dunkirk went in as maybe the slowest horse in the race (a 10 on TG, with granted some trouble) and was bet to even money from the first plunge. I questioned the slow Beyer (a 78) and one race later this horse may be the Florida Derby favorite.
Instead of perhaps tying in the day to the This Ones For Phil race maybe it should be thrown out.
Just a debatable thought.
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First of all, you mean 1/24. No reason to believe anything is out of whack, but I\'ll review that race again after more have run back.
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Which race Dunkirks or This Ones For Phil?
This Ones For Phil probably will go favored in the FOY next week off that Neg 4 and 117 Beyer. So should all speed handicappers believe it.
I will grant you the way the Big Figure guys handled the day makes sense. But you now have a FOY runner going favored from that day and a Florida Derby runner, who may go favored, with a line that will look something like the following.
1
10 tu, op
So both runners look like BOUNCE, TOSS Candidates.
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The Dutrow race is definitely right, and it has nothing to do with what that horse does next time out. The other race is probably right, but the horses were much lighter raced (less data for me), and the track was changing speed that day (though not that much), so if several horses jumped forward and there was another specific scenario for the first race that then made sense given those new numbers, I would consider it. Meaning, if 4 horses went forward exactly 2 points, something like that.