Ask The Experts
General Category => Ask the Experts => Topic started by: jimbo66 on April 27, 2009, 03:23:38 PM
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Quality Road out changes the complexion of the betting a bit.
I Want Revenge 7 to 2
Pioneer of the Nile 5 to 1
Dunkirk 7 to 1
Friesan Fire 7 to 1
Chocolate Candy 15 to 1
Desert Party 15 to 1
Hold Me Back 20 to 1
General Quarters 25 to 1
Papa Clem 25 to 1
Musket Man 25 to 1
Square Eddie 25 to 1
Regal Ransom 30 to 1
Advice 40 to 1
West Side Bernie 40 to 1
Win Willy 40 to 1
Summer Bird 40 to 1
Mr. Hot Stuff 40 to 1
Flying Private 40 to 1
Join in the Dance 40 to 1
Mine that Bird 40 to 1
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Jimbo-- Boy do I hope you are right on a lot of those. And you and I may be making a side bet some time after the seminar has been out a day or two.
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IWR 5-2 or 3-1
Dunk 5 to 6-1
Pioneer 5 to 6-1
FF 7-1
CC 14-1
Papa 17-1
GQ 20-1
DP 20-1
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Michael,
I know I did a 180 on this from 2 weeks ago, but POTN goes off shorter than Dunkirk. I would take that bet in a second. Too much publicity for POTN and too little for Dunkirk, especially with Gomez taking POTN.
That doesn\'t mean I still don\'t think Dunkirk isn\'t the \"dirt\" horse most likely to run a new top, which I believe he is and I think he is easily the 2nd most likely winner (behind IWR, who is 3 points faster than the field).
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I think the foreign bookmakers ae going to hit DP a little bit, and maybe RR too. But I think you guys are pretty close.
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Are these the odds you expect the public to set in the pools OR do these represent your opinion on the actual probability of winning for each of the horses?
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jimbo66 Wrote:
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> Michael,
>
> I know I did a 180 on this from 2 weeks ago, but
> POTN goes off shorter than Dunkirk. I would take
> that bet in a second. Too much publicity for POTN
> and too little for Dunkirk, especially with Gomez
> taking POTN.
>
> That doesn\'t mean I still don\'t think Dunkirk
> isn\'t the \"dirt\" horse most likely to run a new
> top, which I believe he is and I think he is
> easily the 2nd most likely winner (behind IWR, who
> is 3 points faster than the field).
The UK books are taking more action on Dunk than Pioneer, but I guess that could be the Tabor connection and/or his money. Check this out though - the experts over at the TT love POTN.
http://www.thoroughbredtimes.com/triple-crown/poll-results.aspx?raceno=59
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Jim,
They are the odds I expect the public to set. Factored in is the takeout at Churchill, so the \"math\" works.
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Odds from one of the Caribbean joints, while the individual horse odds are pretty bad, some of those props are a bit interesting.
Will any Horse win the 2009 Triple Crown?
All wagers have action. (Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes&Belmont Stakes). Singles Only.
Yes+600
No-1100
2009 Kentucky Derby - Official Winning Time
All wagers have action.
Over 2:01.60 -190
Under 2:01.60 +155
2009 Kentucky Derby - Winning Saddlecloth Number
All wagers have action.
Odd -120
Even -120
2009 Kentucky Derby - Official Win Mutual Payoff
All wagers have action.
Over $18.50 -125
Under $18.50 -115
Odds to Win 2009 Kentucky Derby
All wagers have action.
ADVICE 30/1
CHARITABLE MAN 100/1
CHOCOLATE CANDY 14/1
DESERT PARTY 16/1
DUNKIRK 9/2
FLYING PRIVATE 60/1
FRIESAN FIRE 13/2
GENERAL QUARTERS 20/1
HOLD ME BACK 25/1
I WANT REVENGE 5/2
MINE THAT BIRD 100/1
MR. HOT STUFF 42/1
MUSKET MAN 25/1
PAPA CLEM 15/1
PIONEEROF THE NILE 6/1
REGAL RANSOM 20/1
SQUARE EDDIE 30/1
SUMMER BIRD 40/1
WEST SIDE BERNIE 40/1
WIN WILLY 30/1