Ask The Experts
General Category => Ask the Experts => Topic started by: SonicDonn on May 02, 2009, 05:54:20 PM
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????
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I\'m sure the next analysis says he will bounce!!!
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A guy standing next to me said it best...\"I wouldn\'t have played that horse with a homeless man\'s money.\"
Super great story though. Best Derby story I\'ve ever heard of. Proud of the West Coast contingent. POTN ran pretty big. If I\'m gonna donate to the cause - I\'d rather it be to horse players that backed this impossible horse. They deserve every penny they got
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The real question is, will the Movie Of The Week be on TV by the Belmont?
They\'re gonna have to get Calvin to play Calvin, though.
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Humans fly to the moon and dominate all of earth. But not horse racing...
Nothing tougher to do in the world.. Great for the connections.. The best was when Blomez looked to his left and saw the horse pass him.. This guy is as self absorbed as Baily was.
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He was the fastest horse coming in on Ragozin!
Seriously, when my friend and I were putting together our superfecta ticket, POTN was the key in all four spots. I persuaded him to include Mine That Bird but we only used him for 3rd and 4th. We used Musket Man and Papa Clem as well (in all spots). When it became clear that the rail was superior I figured Calvin would get a great trip with the horse but can\'t say that we thought enough of him to put him in the Win spot. Had the exacta the wrong way too. LOL.
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David-- you\'re going to have to explain how big a spread that was-- you used a 6-1 shot in all 4 positions with how many horses?
Alan only used 6 horses total and did use the winner, but only 3rd and fourth. My seminar comments had him with a good chance to run a new top, but no way could I figure him to jump that much, and I didn\'t use him.
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You guys can laugh all you want about how hoof analysis plays into races like this, but according to the data I saw, MTB was one of only 4 horses in the race with a high \"frog\" that should really enjoy an off track (the others being Mr Hot Stuff, Chocolate Candy, and Desert Party).
So given that its hard to say it can be used as a firm predictor for all horses, since the others were out of the money, and a horse with a very flat frog POTN finished 2nd, but still, if the question is \"how fast can the horse run TODAY\", this seems like data that might be nice to have, not necesarily from TG, but at least in general past performances. Why not include weight, height, hoof and frog size?
I of course did not use him, but if ever presented this data in the future, I will be sure to pay better attention to it.
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The racing gods sent us Birdstone. It\'s in the breeding.
I\'m in Canada right now and on Canadian TV this morning they interviewed this guy connected with MTB. They asked him about the derby and he said he doesn\'t know why they\'re in the race because he\'s not as good as those other horses.
I assume someone else will start a Durkin blew it thread. Made it funnier though.
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Jerry,
We keyed POTN with 9 horses for 1st and 2nd: West Side Bernie, Papa Clem, Friesan Fire, Chocolate Candy, Dunkirk, General Quarters, Hold Me Back, Musket Man, Summer Bird
We added Mine That Bird, Flying Private, Desert Party, and Mr. Hot Stuff for 3rd and 4th
It was almost a $4k Super, split 3 ways. The cost to put every horse in every spot would have been $6864. Guess we should have spent the extra $3k!
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I have a friend that is competitive at everything he does. He truly can\'t lose at anything. I always tell him for a month pick up a racing form and bet, with real money, then let me no how you feel in 30 days.. Sill hasn\'t done it..
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Very tough to use that horse on top. And that\'s the problem with that kind of bet-- high exposure, and if Dunkirk and FF are in the top 4 you lose money even if you hit it.
I made the identical tri and super play I did in War Emblem\'s year--- box seven, press six of them. Wasn\'t even close.
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Only if all 3 hit the Super and no big longshot comes in. Remember last year the 2:1 favorite won, the 4th (or 5th) choice was 2nd and the Super (which we hit) still paid $29k. The year before when SS won as the favorite, both Hard Spun and Curlin were in the top 5 choices and it paid $14k.
I think it is worth the plunge because the public never goes deep enough to use enough longshots so the payouts are almost always big. What\'s the lowest Derby Super ever?
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Your play was for a buck, or two?
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At least the horse is owned by a vet, that makes it a lot more palatable.
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i threw away alot of tickets except i had to do a double take when i realized i had 6/6/7-12 for a $1 savor broke even for the day
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I have to give it to this Jockey. He may not be the smartest in terms of IQ, but this guys can show the best Jockeys in the country 8 times thid weekend on how to get an inferior horse to beat a better horse.
He Should be a Guest Speaker at the Saratoga Seminars on the effects of Ground Loss in horse racing.
Can someone please tell me why Coa gets off the rail with Musket Man and goes into the 8-9 path and Lets Calvin just Have it, He still may not have won it, but MM would have finished second...
NCT
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Tony,
I don\'t think he let him have it. Calvin took it......
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I have to watch the replay online. Was at a simulcast center and never got a close enough picture or replay. He should never let that happen, if he did. Good for Borel. He showed up the best this weekend, that\'s for sure. He should clearly be looked at differently from hear on out as a two time Derby winner.
Maybe he should put out one of those Jerry Baily DVD\'s, \"do you know what I know?\"
NCT
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Tony,
Do you really think Gomez or say Prado is better than Boral?? I always try to avoid the media, during derby week, but the way they talked about Gomez and is horse selection, was nuts. We all have are ways and handicap the game differently, but I will never go for the jockey thing. They all ride wide from time to time. But in the end this game is all about the horse... Look where Prado turned for home with Dunkirk?
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Sure sometimes wide is better....but he does the rail thing time and time again, in the biggest races. Kind of like AROD vs Jeter who\'s show\'s up when it matters most? Lately you have to say Borel. Coa comes off the rail into the three path then to the 6-7 path...Prado this, Gomez that.
Some say Jockeys don\'t matter, I\'d say today a Jockey Mattered.
NCT
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I\'m with you on that. I don\'t think Coa,Prado or Gomez could have found the finish line on that horse today. Borel is a horse rider.
Me or you could probably ride winning races with all the top horses the prima dona jocks have thrown at them to pick and choose from.
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rosewood Wrote:
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> Borel is a horse rider.
>
>
I have been watching races for a long time, 25 plus years..That was easily the most fearless ride I ever saw..He put that horse through a space I could probably not walk through never steadying once...It\'s like he didn\'t care about what could happen to him..UNREAL!!
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Borel is the king of ROI. During Friday\'s card on HRTV, Laffit Pincay III commented to Siegel after the rail ride on Miss Isella in race 7--boy, Jeff- Calvin Borel has something that I can\'t say on the air, because this is a family program.
BTW, TGJB\'s Derby analysis was spot-on with regards to Dunkirk\'s rider change from GG to Prado.
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$1
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I\'m sure there are many rides like that a year, but you don\'t get to see a blimp shot.
That said, I agree, Borel rides like he doesn\'t even look, just head down and let the horse find the holes. Well, he may peek a little.
Lost Cause Wrote:
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> rosewood Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > Borel is a horse rider.
> >
> >
> I have been watching races for a long time, 25
> plus years..That was easily the most fearless ride
> I ever saw..He put that horse through a space I
> could probably not walk through never steadying
> once...It\'s like he didn\'t care about what could
> happen to him..UNREAL!!
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Another great ride by a jock at the top of his profession. I see Borel as a classy, humble man who deserves better than having his IQ questioned. He appeared to be the smartest person in Louisville this wekend. He could definitely teach geometry, and give you a lesson about class.
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Great ride by Borel but where did that Mine That Bird a confirmed slow rat get that engine from suddenly.No fluke that HUGE sustained run, which I defy anyone to show me a hint of in any of this horses pp\'s?figs.Forward moving pattern,my rear end, so what, he was 5-10 lengths slower than the entire field going in and had absolutely no license to throw a race like that.
I\'ll be a conspiracy idiot on this one, test results please! Humbled by a slow rat after tossing FF(nice spacing) Dunkirk(needs a nutritionist)clueless Sheik Mo\'s desert duo and all the phony wide plodders.Papa Clem would have made me a nice score considering how poorly I did overall.
Mike
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suspecting drugs? are we really going to go there?
He had never run on mud before and obviously loved it.
This can\'t be the 1st time a horse ran a 4 or 5 point new top 1st time mud/slop, is it really that unusual?
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Thread,
If you have followed this board too closely you know that I often rail at \"conspiracy idiots\", every race is fixed and every fast horse/performance is illegally enhanced and so on.My post is my way of making fun at myself.
As to mud,not mud or whatever,it is inconceivable in any racing sense, to review this horses pps/figs and conclude that his performance was remotely possible or forthcoming prior to yesterday.The rail was giant all day and he was there the whole race, that still does not come close to sufficiently explaining that run/ acceleration to me.
Mike
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Most of his previous races he\'s always been put close to or right on the pace. Watching his Sunland races he has a nice 1/2 mile to 3/4 mile run in him in both and tires late, but was fairly game in both efforts.
* Jerry mentioned a new top in his future.
* Borel riding moved him up a copule of extra points immeadiately with the rail skimming ride.
* A change of tactics in his running style, with the same 1/2 mile run that he had previously shown.
Yeah it was possible....I think.
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jmetro,
Read your post again. Then ask yourself \"derby winner comments\"?
He had a sustained quarter mile run at Sunland Park, then tired, but the fact he could make a little run at Sunland Park, before tiring, is a sign he had yesterday\'s race in him?
Nope. Not joining the conspiracy theory, but I just don\'t understand. I think you had to be crazy, absolutely crazy, to take only 50-1 on this horse. I would have offered 200-1 and booked bets on this horse. (then I would be explaining to my son this morning, that he can\'t go to Cornell in August, we are switching to community college....). This game is tough. Very tough.
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And if I showed you 10s or 100s of other sheets where a horse ran a 4 or 5 point top, you would still say there is no rational explaination for what happened?
Can you explain Bull Toccet\'s sheet from the 4th yesterday?
Can you explain Royale Michele\'s sheet from the 7th yesterday?
Yes I do follow your posts, and if you were making fun of yourself, then that\'s fine. But I have read posts on other forums from people seemingly making this same drug argument who are serious, and I think it is unfortunate. While not an everyday occurance, some horses do move up significantly their first time on off tracks and there is a wealth of data to support it. While I agree it was very difficult to expect this large an improvement going into the race, in hind-sight I think there is a logical explaination for what happened and plenty of other horses that support the premise.
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I have a theory. I think there is something strange in the way that Borel hugs the rail. Much much closer to the rail than your typical rail trip. I certainly understand the geometry of it but he is this close to the rail even on the straightaways. Is it possible that this portion of the track was as hard as a superhighway? With a fairly slow pace after the first fraction I am stunned that a horse could come back like this. This is not just a question of saving ground. I think something else was at play here. I am also wondering a little about street sense. Did he win anything significant or run a high beyer outside of his inside wins at churchill? Food for thought.
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Pizza,
SS had all the credentials in the world, this horse has none. Yes the rail was giant at CD yesterday, however many races down down and did not run as well as MTB.
Thread,
You will NOT show me hundreds of horses (drugs aside) AT THIS LEVEL that jump up and run past 19 faster ones, maybe a rare few.If you follow or study racing this was one of the most shocking/unexplainable results in derby history. At least we know the rat Giacomo got there because of a brutal pace and meltdown, this horse legitimately outran the field, rail or no rail,he would have won with any decent trip.
Mike
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So close, but yet so far. About 15 minutes before the race, I took a flyer on a $1 tri with Mine That Bird over 6 horses (PON, RR, FF, HMB, Dunkirk and Desert Party). I did this completely based on Borel - nothing else. The only race I hit all day long was a win bet on the 16-1 turf horse Borel was riding earlier. He was just on fire. I guess I should have simply bet MTB to win - would have made for a nice day.
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This morning, many of us are able to draw an analogy between the beatdown that Manny Pacquiao gave Ricky Hatton, and the manner in which Mine That Bird destroyed our exotic tickets yesterday. While watching a DVR replay of Pacquiao\'s sublime performance, I began pondering a boxer\'s training regimen. The wheels began turning.
Has there ever been a study of the effects of high altitude training on equine athletes? Is it possible that MTB developed a short term aerobic advantage in speed and stamina at the 10 furlongs because of his preparation/training above 4,000 ft in New Mexico? His closing 1/4 was over 2 seconds faster than any other horse in the race.
Or is this completely ridiculous and a result of delusional thoughts caused by the concussion that my bank account took in the Kentucky Derby yesterday?
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My brother asked his girlfriend who she wanted to bet early in the day, and she said \"put $20 on whoever is wearing pink\". When MTB came home, she yelled \"yay! team pink won!!!\". My brother\'s face went ghostly white. He forgot to place her bet.
Needless to say, he\'s in the doghouse...
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I live in Phoenix and believe in this (altitude) big time. The summer meets go north to 4000 feet and any horse that hasn\'t been up there and run for at least two weeks is a toss. Also believe it works in reverse.
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I agree with jmetro here. This was a combination of factors, with the golden rail and \"Calvin on (at CD)\" being big factors, the surface (likely) a BIG factor, and the change in tactics (likely) a HUGE factor. Look at the PPs. This was the first time he ran as a stone-cold closer (20 lengths off the lead for much of the race ... Durkin didn\'t even see him behind Mr Hot Stuff as he finished going through the field as they were on the backstretch). Add ALL those to Calvin\'s fearless ride, and I think you have enough to believe it wasn\'t mashed peyote juice from the land of enchantment.
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I booked a bet of my daughter\'s about 25 years ago. The horse paid over $ 50.00 to win cause he was wearing a pink hood. She was only 8 years old, so I refused to pay.
I still hear about it to this day.
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I do follow racing, but I don\'t pay any attention to what historians, the general public, or DRF talking heads write about it, because you cannot count on any of them to understand the underlying data.
You\'ve got me on the \"class\" thing however, because so few races are run at this level, and of those, so very few of them run on off tracks or in situations where 90% of the field has no off-track experience. But I\'m sure there at least 10s of examples, if not hundreds, of horses that have jumped from the 5,6,7 range to the 0,1 range 1st time on the mud, regardless of \"class\". That\'s what happened here I\'m guessing, and if so, there is PLENTY of historical data to explain it.
Your assertion of completely unexplainable provides fuel to the fire of the drug conspiracy theorists, whether you believe it was drugs or not, and I think it does a tremendous disservice to the horse and its connections. I\'ll happily eat my words if it does turn out something was amiss, but for now I think this horse should be celebrated and not questioned.
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Miff
I have immense respect for your posts. Having said this, the Derby didn\'t seem at all suspicioius to me other than being a race full of minor stories adding up to a major result.
First, FF supposedly got hurt early in the race or simply was hyped and couldn\'t overcome his layoff.
Dunkirk almost fell out of the gate and could not handle the track nor his jockey.
PON translated his synth form into mud form, but his average ability showed up despite having a late shot at winning.
The horses who ran close to PON probably ran to their abilities, track condition or not.
The winner is probably a mudder in the classic sense of the word, improving to a different level under the track conditions. Having said that, he blew past the field, but he did it rather slowly when considering it in absolute terms.
I\'ve always believed mudders were sturdy but slower horses who simply don\'t slow down any further in the mud. I have a filly who only runs decently on off tracks, but she never runs faster times in the mud or slop...she just beats the other horses who slow down under the circumstances.
For what it\'s worth, this Derby winner was a champion last year, albeit in Canada. He had SOME quality. He had two mediocre prep races, but they were kind of like workouts...spaced nicely before Kentucky.
There was no way to handicap and select him, but for what it is worth I backed off any serious play on the Derby once I saw the track conditions. I could not make a credible case (to myself) for anyone winning the race, said that to the room I was sitting in just before the start and was not surprised at the outcome.
There are more interesting betting races today at Calder.
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pizzalove Wrote:
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> I have a theory. I think there is something
> strange in the way that Borel hugs the rail. Much
> much closer to the rail than your typical rail
> trip. I certainly understand the geometry of it
> but he is this close to the rail even on the
> straightaways. Is it possible that this portion
> of the track was as hard as a superhighway? With
> a fairly slow pace after the first fraction I am
> stunned that a horse could come back like this.
> This is not just a question of saving ground. I
> think something else was at play here. I am also
> wondering a little about street sense. Did he win
> anything significant or run a high beyer outside
> of his inside wins at churchill? Food for
> thought.
I\'m going with your theory.
Borel rides closer to the rail than any jock in history. It\'s no coincidence that so many of these horse explode. I\'ve just seen it too many times.
Also, 2:02.66 doesn\'t have to be that fast, assuming the rail was super-quick. Just about every good colt got knocked out this year, and the two most talented dirt colts left got wiped out at the start yesterday. From 2-19, this might have been one of the slowest Derby groups in a long time.
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Could that be why MTB wasn\'t 70 or 80 to one? All the women betting on \"team pink\"? lol...
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Al,
There is no questioning the legitimacy of his win based on that long sustained run. This horse did not get lucky.My point goes to those trying to somehow justify the performance.Lots of excuses for many I agree.God may have been on this one, just for himself.Can\'t explain either why he was not at least 100-1 based on credentials going in.
Mud is the best explanation, as just look at Accredit yesterday, a substantially different horse when his feet gets wet.
Mike
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It\'s pretty simple in my eyes Miff. You don\'t think Calvin thought he was on an impossible \'shot?\" He can read the form. His way-too-simple strategy was \"Well, I\'ll jus\' let \'em all grapple for the lead on the far turn, bunch up, go wide and tire themselves out. If this little guy likes the mud, I\'ll let him relax for the first 7 furlongs then cut him loose on the fence and see what happens.\"
That\'s my attempt at getting into Calvin\'s head. As he told Donna Brothers, \"My little guy was the only one runnin\' at the end.\" So - the other\'s ran a brutal 7 furlongs and mostly jumped up and down coming home and he simply floated by tired horses. If I were to guess - the 1W1W trip and the 2:02 final time would equate to about a 0 or a 1 on TG - a 4 point jump. Beyer will probably have him in the 105 or 107 range - not the most impossible jump ever.
Going forward - I doubt you\'ll here anything from these poeple (connections) or horse again. If that trainer with the big black hat didn\'t have such a chip on his shoulder - Mr and Mrs Obama might want him over for supper.
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Buck, the guy with the chip on his shoulder had the class to thank the trainer who had him in Canada and got the G3 win that got him into the Derby. I can understand the chip on the shoulder after god-knows-how-many questions all week about $9,500 geldings and 2,100 mile van rides. He seems all right to me.
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I read in the DRF that he and the connections were getting heckled all the way along the way up with the horse to the paddock. If that\'s the case, this shocker really had to shut \'em up.
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Note how Hold Me Back rocketed up the rail under Desormeaux\'s absurdly early move. In his post-race quote he said he was surprised that HMB came up empty in the lane??!!??
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David-- that means if you spend 4k and it pays 14k for a buck, you are getting 5/2 (before taxes). I\'m not saying you spent that much last year, just that a big spread like that which inludes 3 favorites is not a great risk/reward situation.
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Smalltimer,
I couldn\'t find the story. Do you have a link?
You know when I watched the replay and Calvin looked back after he came through and took the lead; he looked back and shook his stick back at the jocks behind him as if in a good bye or f@#k you gesture and I thought something was strange. He may have taken a lot of heckling from the other connections as well.
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Yes, I think coming from altitude helped a little, but it\'s measurable. That effect lasts for about a week, I don\'t know when the horse got into Churchill. the trainer said he did stop and gallop him in Texas on the way here.
The track was floated (not sealed) right before the Derby, and even the NBC guys were talking about how firm and fast that makes the track. They were talking about it relating to breakdowns.
Watching the race, the hardness of the absolute rail path (right up snug against it) is seen on the far turn, when the 5 horse made a huge acceleration move for several strides on the rail (then left it!). Go back and watch that.
Borel talked in detail about how this ride happened, and it was pretty clear to me that he knows it was a perfect storm. But he\'s a smart enough jock to recognize it happening and he acted on it.
Not to mention he\'s a true Cajun rider, gutsy and half-crazy when he has to be.
He said (paraphrasing) on the interview during the ride back: \"Mr. Nafzgar taught me to ride the rail, he taught me to be patient on these baby 3-year-olds, they only have one run\"
At the press conference he said (paraphrasing):
The plan was to go out and lay off the pace, but when his horse got slammed and bumped and squeezed back at the start, he just cut over to the rail and lay back.
His horse cruised through a lazy gallop at the back with no kickback, while everyone else was up running fast and tiring in the mud.
He said he figured that he could go wide and close to get a placement (someone mentioned this here already) but he had the rail so clucked the horse on, and it really responded - and he kept going, and the horse kept coming, so he just went for it.
He acknowledged his horse was physically little, so that let him \"float over the track, rather than sink in\" - that\'s a known thing (smaller horses usually do okay in the mud) - and the little horse was quick on his feet and squeezed through that tiny hole on the rail. He sounded surprised the little horse kept coming, too.
Borel did shake his whip back at the three jocks struggling in the center of the track, laughing.
After doing a bit of the same on Rachel yesterday (pointing to the horse, celebrating before the wire), I wonder if the stewards talked to him - but the crowd loved it!
So yeah, I, too, looked for Giacamo\'s and didn\'t find this one, but I can buy that this was the luckiest day of that little horse\'s life - and his trainers, owners, etc. They owe Borel big time. He rode that little horse like he was in a bullring - Borel, after Friday, was in the zone, just being gutsy and having a ball this weekend. Best weekend of that jocks life.
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Poor Sheik MO was there and watched his runners waxed by a $9,500 small crooked legged slug, who one prominent clocker noted pre derby \"MTB does not belong in the race\"
hee hee,gotta love it!
Mike
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I just rewatched MTB\'s previous races at Sunland, hoping I\'d see some hint of what we saw on Saturday.
It\'s not there.
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MIke--
1-- Lets assume (I haven\'t done the figure yet) that the winner ran a 1, and the big margin was a result mostly of saving ground. That means mostly horses ran bad. MTB made a 4-5 point jump, just like many horses in the Derby had done at some earlier point this year. That by itself is not shocking. But the combination of the jump, the rail, and a lot of other horses Xing caused the result.
2-- CD switched labs this year. The one they used last year (Iowa) did not do blood testing for Clenbuterol, and possibly other tests-- they didn\'t have the equipment. The one this year (Florida) does.
3-- On good authority, and I\'m not going to go into any more detail than this-- they held a meeting with the trainers Friday to explain the pre and post race testing procedures with them. One guy got very agitated, and started asking a lot of questions.
It is possible that the ABSENCE of drugs caused the result.
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Jerry, I was told they were \"supertesting\" this Derby (testing for things they normally do not), and freezing blood, too. I don\'t know the lab.
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1-- Lets assume (I haven\'t done the figure yet) that the winner ran a 1, and the big margin was a result mostly of saving ground. That means mostly horses ran bad. MTB made a 4-5 point jump, just like many horses in the Derby had done at some earlier point this year. That by itself is not shocking. But the combination of the jump, the rail, and a lot of other horses Xing caused the result.
JB,
Slightly different issue, assume this, when you have a minute:
The winner was I Want Revenge and not MTB, same trip, all others finishers exact. Why would the fig that you, Friedman and Mark Hopkins award be faster for IWR (and the ones behind him) than it WILL be for the slug MTB.I call that projection voodoo,they laugh,what say you?
To add fuel to this fire you will note that the raw times deteriorated (slowed) as the day went on.There was obvious maintenance all day and surely within the 70 minutes leading up to the derby to be considered.
Mike
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Miff-- I have 20 horses to work with, even if I cut the race loose from the others. Why would I make the race faster if IWR won? You seem to share CTC\'s mistaken view that figures are made off winners. That\'s true if you use par claiming levels, not if you make sophisticated figures.
I\'m giving the winner a new top no matter what, what difference does it makes whether it\'s 2 or minus 2?
If your theory was correct I would never give anyone a new top.
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TGJB -
One note: the relevant comparison is not with the drug-testing procedures for last year\'s Derby, but with the the drug testing procedures in the jurisdictions where this year\'s Derby horses earned the tops that they failed to reproduce.
A couple of questions about your figure-making procedures that pop to mind after this year\'s Derby:
Is \"1w\" Calvin Borel\'s rail or everyone else\'s rail?
On days like yesterday when the rail appears to be good, do you gear your figures to the horses who ran on the advantageous rail (so that one should mentally upgrade the figures earned bu others running against the bias) or to the horses who ran elsewhere (so that one should downgrade the figures earned on the favored rail)?
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\"I\'m giving the winner a new top no matter what, what difference does it makes whether it\'s 2 or minus 2?\"
Whoa, JB if -2 then several others would have to get pretty big tops tops,like POTN.I\'m aware that you do not make figs solely off the winner but you must admit that fig makers like to see figs \"fit\" Thanks
Mike
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TGJB Wrote:
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> It is possible that the ABSENCE of drugs caused
> the result.
Would training at elevation help a horse at all?
The difference in elevation between Sunland, NM and Louisville is +3200 feet.
Just wondering.
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Both drug testing questions are relevant. And yes, the California horses had been running under testing conditions more like the ones Saturday. Have to wonder what the reaction would have been if I discussed this in the seminar-- not that it would have helped. Or even realized it was an issue until I heard details of the testing late in the week. And even then I wasn\'t sure I believed it.
My guess is that the rail helped in terms of ground loss and therefore results, as usual, not in terms of how fast they ran. We\'ll see when I do the day, we\'ll post it as usual.
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Miff-- you don\'t get it.
What I\'m saying is, your assumption that I would give the winner a better figure if it was IWR is wrong because I\'m not going to be \"fitting\" MTB\'s figure no matter what, it can\'t be done.
Of COURSE I\'m going to look at how the figures \"fit\" for all the horses-- that\'s how EVERY serious figure maker works. The only difference is that some try to lump all the races together at the same variant when seeing how they fit, which results in using (at best) the average variant for the day, not the right one for individual races.
I would point out that is particularly crazy on a day like saturday, where a) the track may change speed due to drying out, and b) there is a long time between races. Even if there was no precipitation, variable wind and sun conditions could affect track speed by affecting evaporation and moisture content.
Also, I talked to Andy earlier (he actually called to apologize for taking a shot at us for saying IWR\'s big efforts would take their toll, I said no problem, we talked about the drug issue). He gave the winner 105, obviously not based on the winner any more than mine will be. But here\'s the thing-- if you use the other horses (as you should), think about how much the enormous ground loss in that race can change things. If the average horse was 3w3w or wider, the winner could get 6-9 Beyer points better than he will on TG.
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JB,
Trust me I get it! Of course you cant fit MTB\'s derby figure because it does NOT fit.If it turns out that you agree with Andy, then MTB ran app TG -1/2 or -3/4, a rather huge 10+ length improvement for the distance.
I had the Rags derby figs for all runners except MTB.Anyone have the Rag figs for MTB going in,curious how slow he was.
Mike
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They had him faster as a 2yo (8), slower as a 3yo (10), not getting back to his 2yo top yet.
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Thanks,Jerry,
That makes it unanimous, MTB, going in,was the slowest winner of the derby in modern history according to the big three fig makers.
He\'s a cinch to win the Triple Crown!
Mike
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Jerry,
Last year we spent $504 for the 14k because we keyed BB on top. I am pretty good with risk/reward calculations and hedging, though I failed to adequately hedge yesterday ($5 exacta 16-8 but no box?).
I think that it makes sense to spend a lot on the Derby Super because the overlay is huge when a couple longer shots hit the top 4.
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Is \"1w\" Calvin Borel\'s rail or everyone else\'s rail?
LOL - good point. I think the \"normal rail\" is about 1 1/2 paths out from the rail, and Calvin\'s running inside of all of them on the damn flat part - look where he comes through. He did the same thing Friday. Guy has ice water in his veins. And he\'s never clipped heels.
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I noticed the same thing. Kent D. gave Hold Me Back the exact same too early panic move at the same point in the backstretch that he gave Sweetnorthernsaint in the 2006 Derby, and then was befuddled as to why each horse was done at 8 1/2F.
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Kent D. rode HMB like he was FuPeg, Big Brown or Real Quiet, which of course he isn\'t. Those Derby winners all had tactical speed, something HMB doesn\'t have, at least not yet. He should have been coming from where the winner did.
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Agreed. When you are riding a one run closer, no reason to make that run midway through the backstretch. He must have thought he was sitting on more horse.
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I lost on this derby just as much as the next guy, but I feel a little heartened by it.
I thought this derby, more than any other, a 50-1 shot could win and I bet it that way. My only problem is the wrong 50-1 shot won. For example, I thought Join In the Dance could get a pure rail trip and run a 2 or a 3 and that with a super tight 1w 1w somebody overtaking him would have to come up with either an impossibly good trip or run a huge number to beat him. Also, I thought that Summer Bird (dang, wrong Bird horse), could actually move forward and I noted that his little known jockey had great path stats (not as good as Borel, but better than anybody else) and figured to be on the rail first turn and might be able to pull an upset. If either of those horses had been the 50-1 upset, I would have hit a $20 exacta and a $2 trifecta and would be crowing that this was my best derby ever. To a certain extent, I look at Mine that Bird and just say well if he can do it, my 50-1 can do it too one day. You don\'t need that every year. Just every once and a while.
The thing that gets me is that, if Mine That Bird had been something like 85-1, I might have considered using him. My main problem was that I wanted to choose a longshot and I thought the ones I chose looked better than him for what was basically the same price. However, if Summer Bird had been 25-1 and Mine That Bird 75-1, then I would have switched \"Birds\" Oh well!
Here is another question -- is Mine That Bird a case of Synthetic-to-Dirt Jump Up Syndrome? Maybe the figures at Woodbine could be weighed the way one would weigh I Want Revenge\'s synthetic figures. If those synthetic figures were all the equivalent of \"5s\" on dirt instead of \"8s\" they were, then maybe Mine That Bird\'s pattern looks a whole lot better and the jump up not so far-fetched. If you do look at it that way, then all of a sudden, he looks pretty strong in the Preakness in my view at what might be a pretty good price.
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What set him apart (literally) from any other horse in the race was his first quarter, a matter which was not peripheral to the outcome of this race.
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I found this article interesting as it dealt with the factor elevation training may have played on MTB\'s aerobic capacity.
What\'s next, IEAH setting up a state of the art training facility in the Adorondacks?
http://therail.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/05/06/mine-that-oxygen-a-vets-take-on-the-derby/
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MonmouthGuy Wrote:
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> I found this article interesting as it dealt with
> the factor elevation training may have played on
> MTB\'s aerobic capacity.
>
> What\'s next, IEAH setting up a state of the art
> training facility in the Adorondacks?
>
>
> http://therail.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/05/06/mine-t
> hat-oxygen-a-vets-take-on-the-derby/
I asked about this on Sunday. No one responded.
http://www.thorograph.com/phorum/read.php?1,51157,51288#msg-51288
Not to dense, but wouldn\'t training at elevation have some of the same effect as EPO use?
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There are already non-state-of-the-art facilities (and some fake, won\'t really do anything facilities) in Kentucky and other states. Why do you think a good portion of the US Olympic team trains in Denver? Sure, training at altitude gives one a boost.
Edit: But let me add, I doubt that was any significant facter in the Derby success. That effect only lasts a week, 10-15 days or so. More important parts of MTB success at the Derby, IMO, was that:
1) he was well-trained for distance
2) he\'s a small, agile, light horse that can skip over the mud better than bigger, heavier horses
3) once he was bumped at the start and squeezed well back, he had a 6 1/2 -furlong canter with no mud in his face until he had to sprint past tiring leaders.
4) Borel put him on the inside part of the 1-path, where no hooves had previously tread, very firm area of the track
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Hi Beth,
How does that differ from the pretty popular Hyperbaric Chamber being used by some trainers.
Mike
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Hyperbaric oxygen therapy involves breathing oxygen under pressure - the same as you scuba diving.
It\'s not documented to help exercise physiology very much (but some sure sell it to do so at $200+ a pop ). Some think you can put a horse in the chamber in the morning, and run him in the afternoon and he\'ll have more oxygen in his blood.
That works best the more you \"believe\" it, IMO
It does help, in some selected cases, with repairing some scarring and damage in lungs due to EIPH post-bleeding episodes, infection (have to be careful with putting damaged lungs or lungs with emphysema under pressure).
It can remarkably assist wound healing, assist antibiotic penetration in areas of low tissue oxygenation (decrease it in other cases). It has approved and recognized human and equine medical uses, certainly.
Trouble is, the companies will sell a chamber to anybody with money and let them throw horses into it. You might remember there was an equine chamber accident within the last year, and a human chamber accident at a hospital within the last two weeks where one died (sparks and fire are virtually immediately lethal in 100% oxygen environments, and you can\'t let the pressure cause an explosion, obviously)
If you are Michael Jackson sleeping in your hyperbaric chamber every night, that\'s whacky.
If you are using oxygen as the drug it is, under pressure, for proven and logical treatment modalities - that\'s different. I had to get trained in hyperbaric medicine use at a human hospital facility. Here\'s some good info regarding horses: http://www.vet.utk.edu/vhms/review.html