Ask The Experts
General Category => Ask the Experts => Topic started by: colt on September 04, 2009, 08:57:06 PM
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Well done JB.
http://www.drf.com/news/article/106994.html
Several regular posters have posted on this board that they typically check the day\'s weather before selecting PPs that they will download, which is still a regiment of mine as well, but I now find myself selecting track(s)/race(s) with the most compressive drug testing, which only leaves SoCal in the running.
There are no objections to the fact that synthetic tracks are an issue by themselves, which I suspect will become a distant memory on the SoCal circuit starting with the Spring 2010 meet at Hollywood, but the better races are now in SoCal thanks to the most advanced testing.
Keep up the good work JB.
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TGBJ,
Why don\'t you just quit pussy-footing around and tell them what you really think? Just kidding, its a good, aggressive article and should be applauded by all the horseplayers. As Reagan said, \"trust...but verify.\"
The next step should be if the DRF would be willing to post the Top Ten Biggest move-ups of the week, or month, or some defined period of time. It could be by certain track or circuit. We all know, many of the same character\'s horses would dominate the list. If those animals were listed by trainer and vet, that would highlight the situation. That type of negative, national exposure could put some pressure on these cowboys to either play by the rules, or face some real scrutiny.
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Well Put.
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JB,
Why don\'t you ask Dr Arthur how it was remotely possible for Mike Mitchell to take Raiding Party(7th DM 9/4) who was 0-4 on grass and only 9 days after claim, move up a couple of classes, and run a hole in the wind off absolutely horrible form.This horse should have been 20-1, was bet to like 6-1 and blew up the pick six for all.
Since I was involved for serious money and it cost me the pick six, please pass along my concerns that between that race and what Sadler is doing, what has changed in the \"cleanest\" venue in racing.
You\'re both kidding yourselves!
Mike
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Mike
Let me first say that I am sorry, since I too, singled the runnerup and lost out. With that said Raiding Party had more than a license to win.
First the field was very bad, TG settled on a horse making her 59th start! Secondly, you point out that the grass on grass pedigree was zero for four on the sod and that is true......... but three of those efforts were off layoffs of 60 days, 40 days and some 210 days. The other grass race Raiding Party chased the super quick frontrunner Tuscan Evening in a two other than. RP was wide thruout, with a big rail and made two solid moves against the stakes winning front runner before tiring late.
After a poor effort on June 7th, Cassidy did not work this 4yo filly for some seven weeks,then a series of maintenance works leading up to the five eights move August 18th. In this work, this filly exploded in some :58 and change with a big gallop out. Mitchell is half past tremendous with the condition book, watches the work and claims RP for his main man for 20K CLEARLY, with this race in mind!
He puts the bug up, claims for 28K knowing he will get a huge weight concession and what chance did you and I really have spotting this one a few lengths at the half mile pole and giving up NINE big pounds.
I am sorry you lost, hell I am sorry I lost but I would opine that Cassidy ran this one too low, rather than the crafty Mitchell moved it up. bbb
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bell, the work was only ok according to my source, Andy H, and she ran afterwards and did not raise a hoof. Worse surface for her was turf,before yesterday, an impossible move up and huge grass top.
Mike
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Because you said so. And Andy H said so. Just impossible, your quote. BBB made several valid points. These things happen and they aren\'t necessarily because of drugs.
You\'ve mentioned that horses move up for a variety of different reasons that have nothing to do with drugs. But you lose a race, can\'t figure out why....must be something crooked.
Can\'t have it both ways Miff.
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Paul,
Get real, check the facts, read the pp\'s, check his TG figs, use any method.This particular horse has no license to step up in class 8 days later and run that big unless he was helped by drugs or maybe a tapped joint or something like that.
Has zero to do with losing a bet but rather challanges the bs offered here about how clean CALI racing is vs other venues.
Mike
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What did the Mr Mitchell tell the Del Mar stewards when called in to shed light on his charge\'s abnormal improvement?
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Mike,
Step up in class?? Its 1 rung up the CLAIMING ladder. I would hardly call that a huge jump in class. She has raced in ALW races her entire career up until her last. As BBB stated, perhaps Cassidy ran her too low.
She runs well so it must have been drugs, a tap, etc... Don\'t you criticize others for making these assumptions??
I have a friend that uses a software program, had this horse amongst its contenders. Not going into detail as to other factors (Its a TG board) but he hit the race. He hits lots of races. The horse wasn\'t impossible. Apparently a lot of other people didn\'t think so either. Not every wagering dollar is traced back to TG users.
So because of this race, we conclude Cal racing is no better than other jurisdictions when it comes to drugs? Is that what you\'re saying??
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Paul,
If it wasn\'t a tap or something illegal,how did this slug, empty against lesser 8 days ago manage to power home a last quarter in 23 and change, this slug from 8 days ago.The field contained 4 droppers,she was up and faced MUCH lesser in her last where she ran her worst race of the year.
Give me some hard-racing fact,Paul in explaining the move up.Wanna bet she ran a substantial top????
Mike
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Great letter. Racing just doesn\'t go out of its way sharing \"dirty little secrets.\"
This is a huge problem. It seems every track is allowed to regulate themselves disclosing only what they want to.
Try finding track takeouts at any track web site. That kind of stuff should be mandatory. So should any drug or jockey violation.
We seemed to have more information in the 70\'s than we do now regarding most wrong doings that go on at the track.
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Mike-- I haven\'t looked at the horse in question, no opinion.
On the larger issue-- I agree something has happened in California recently with one trainer in particular, who looks to be resuming his evil ways. But my comments stand-- they had the situation completely under control for 6 months, and will work hard to get it under control again. That\'s the difference.
Arthur wants me to give him heads-ups on move-ups, I\'ll take a look at the one in question. And your point about the betting is key-- people are benefitting from inside information in the market.
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JB,
When you do the work, take a look at your stuff going in, drf pp\'s lines and the race replay. Let me know what you think.
Mike
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I\'ll look at figures only for this.
When Arthur had me run sheets for 10 trainers for the first 3 months of this year, the only one with any suspicious move-ups (3) was Mitchell. Then he went quiet for a long time.
About 3-4 weeks ago Sadler stated to get some jumps (a lot of them), and cost me cashing at least 5 times.
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\"I\'ll look at figures only for this\"
Thanks, I think if you looked at all the data that I did,you might be more impressed. She got 9 lbs so her \"top\" fig may suffer.This may be more racing stuff than fig stuff which can sometimes be different.
This horse was one paced, without an ounce of run 8 days prior to the claim.This day, she attacked early on a fastish pace of 1.10 and change and got home the last quarter in 23.4, raw splits that he has never been near before. She was bet off the board at 6.80 to 1.
Mike
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Can\'t go along with you on this one. She ran back to a figure she ran twice earlier in the year, and the trainer switch is positive regardless of anything else. The weight helped.
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according to your data, from memory, not on grass.
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RP was chasing graded stakes fillies earlier this year, she was battling head and head with Tuscan Evening in May and before that she lost to Annaba\'s Creation, that\'s the horse who almost did Z.
The thing i noticed about RP in the race she dueled with Tuscan Evening is that she stopped so suddenly. To me, that signifies that maybe she chokes off her air or has some kind of breathing problem. ALso, she\'s a filly, and can be temperamental. When a horse has breathing problems or flips her palate, the jocks like to \'send\' a horse like that and not \'grab\' her. So, her erratic performances may not be \'drug\'s on\' related, but rather a different riding strategy.
It also helped that this field was not really all that great.
In defense of the OP, it does seem that whenever there is a horse who runs great first off the claim, its usually a trainer known for doing this. You seldom see a horse who is claimed off one of the \'usual suspects\' by a no name guy and this improvement occurs.
IF this particular example was just a horse feeling good one day with the new barn and not feeling good for the old barn, than i\'d love to see just one example of a horse who got claimed by Joe Nobody off one of the \'training elite\' and runs a hole in the wind. Does anyone know of an example of Joe Nobody claiming one from one of the usual suspects and exploding him/her into orbit?
If this situation was totally honest, no drugs were involved and it was all on the up and up, you would think that this situation could happen in the reverse.....yet, it never seems to happen that way.
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I\'ll just say that from a pure TG fig perspective, my take;
1.It was a 5 point improvement from her previous,8 days later, no equipment change, and on a surface, turf, where she was a couple of points slower than on synth.
2.Coming off a drop in class deceased line.
3.Mitchell(good off claims) was not getting many tops lately, I think like 10%.
From a pure racing perspective, she never won on grass,faced multiple faster proven grass winners had dull, flat, backwards moving lines. She got way overbet and whistled.
I keep touch with lots of sheet players, not ONE used this horse, myself included, and were knocked out by this horse in the pick 6.If you follow closely you will see that there were no really bad pick six results in the sequence EXCEPT for this somewhat impossible winner who ran kinda lights out only paying $15.60 creating a carryover of $400+k.
Nice horsemanship by Mitchell maybe, I doubt it.
Mike
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Mike-- just to be clear, saying I don\'t think it was drug induced doesn\'t mean I\'m saying I would use her or would think she\'s likely to run a 7. But coming back to a number she has already run right off the claim could be caused by something as simple as going from a guy who doesn\'t tap to a guy who taps every joint, just to give one example. If she had run a 4 point new lifetime top it would be a different story.
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I completely agree with the possible tap and know that happens often.Do not know know if that is what Mitchell does. He has turned lots of horses around but normally, like many other move up guys, he has them for like 30 days before they run back.
From my perspective, I used this horse on the drop 8 days prior and watched her struggle and fade.Fast forward 8 days, she\'s pulling the boy out of his seat.
To me, a serious unpredictable form reversal which may or may not have been legit.
Mike
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Unpredictable, yes. But you and I have both got bitten by those a thousand times. You just hope it doesn\'t happen in a situation where it costs you a pick 6, like this one did.
But that\'s a diffrent question, and it occurs to me I might not have made this clear in the past. When I talk about drug move-ups, or even suspicious ones, I\'m talking about things that (on figures) are MUCH more extreme than this. Like that Scott lake filly whose sheet we posted earlier this year. And even then, if it\'s an isolated occurance for a trainer, I don\'t count that as meaningful.
What are meaningful in this regard are individual events that are each extremely unlikely (less than 5%), happening repeatedly for the same trainer. Like getting big new tops out of heavily raced older horses, several times in one month.
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I didn\'t realize on Sunday that the article you were waving at me was one you wrote. Too bad you couldn\'t stay Monday to see the race Gary Sciacca arranged to honor Steve\'s mother. Very touching.
Hard to disagree with your basic points, but my take is that the current system is not the endpoint, but one always has to start somewhere. If enough tracks buy into the concept, then it should be a lot easier than it is now to impose stricter testing and disclosure standards which apply on something approaching a nationwide basis, assuming bettors actually support the tracks with the best testing and detection.
P.S. I can\'t guarantee this chart is completely up to date, but if not I\'m pretty sure takeout information also appears with the pps in the drf:http://www.sportsbettingacumen.com/horse-racing-track-takeout-chart.asp
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HANA is in the process of getting a letter out to support JB\'s position.