Ask The Experts
General Category => Ask the Experts => Topic started by: sekrah on November 06, 2009, 09:52:23 PM
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Mine That Bird.
MTB was the easily fastest horse coming home in the Goodwood, clearly showing his running style (as I had suspect) would be very favorable to a poly track. IF THERE WERE ANY KIND OF PACE AT ALL IN THAT RACE, MTB would of won it IMO, and I don\'t think he was near his top form in that race.
Still should be very fresh, only 2 races since the Belmont Stakes, I love MTB in this spot.
Should get a beautiful rail trip all the way around.
Zenyatta is a clear use in any exotics ticket. I also like Colonel John and/or Regal Ransom to have a decent shot at putting a big Tri and Superfecta number up on teh toteboard.
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Mine That Bird and Zenyatta won\'t hit the board.......The winner is Col.John.
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My top 3 are Einstein, Gio Ponti, and Richard\'s Kid - each with solid running lines, surface familiarity, and ideal spacing since top/pair.
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I want to play Richard\'s Kid in here but if you think Wide Mikey is bad, Solis is even worse. Rip Van Winkle has a bum hind leg, and I don\'t really think Mine That Bird is even relevant here. I\'m tossing all the dirt winners so that leaves Zenyatta, Gio, Einstein, the Colonel and Twice Over. I\'m going with Twice Over at 18-1 with all the logical Pro Ride horses underneath and on top as savers.
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Any reason why nobody likes Girolomo? One of the fastest horses in the race, Bred to like synths and distance. The best part is he will be over 20/1. Box him with Summer Bird and key them in the P4 and hope for a big score.
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Judging by the previous 5 posts it should be a great betting race at the very least.
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I am thinking similar but will also include Awesome Gem in the 3rd and 4th line of my exotics at 40-1. Will be running long after some of the favorites start backing up like in 2007.
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The winner is probably Quality Road, but MTB, RR, Giralomo, RK all threaten. Bottom rungs of tri-super come from CJ, Einstein, maybe Gio Ponti, Zenyatta, SB.
I would call it like this for the tri:
QR
Gir, RK, RR, MTB
MTB, RK, RR, CJ, Einstein, Z, SB, GP
MTB, RK, RR, CJ, Einstein, Z, SB, GP
QR almost got Summer Bird last out and I think he should take to the surface better than SB.
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Out of all the 3-year old colts in this race that raced in the Triple Crown, someone will have a hard time trying to convince me that Mine That Bird isn\'t the best suited out of the bunch for this Pro-Ride.
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Einstein is the choice for me. Proven over the track, has the numbers, right running style, top jockey.
Zenyatta will surely be an underlay, but she has solid numbers and is another proven over the track. She can run on anything.
These are the 2 horses that will complete the exacta. I am tossing the dirt horses....MTB, Summer Bird, QR. If they beat me, I can live with that. East Coast based dirt horses have been abysmal at the last 2 BC. I\'ve ripped up enough tickets playing these types.
As one of the few people around here that gives Zenyatta her proper respect, it will be tough to root against her. I will have her hooked up with some of the other runners I like (Einstein, Colonel John, Richard\'s Kid, Gio Ponti). No more big number dirt horses for me.
Good luck tomorrow.
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I am with you, Lost Cause. I think that Girolamo looks wicked tough in here. This horse has never bounced. Never reacted. Six steadily improving races. When I first starting using sheets more than 20 years ago, one of the first lessons I was taught was to be very careful giving a horse a bounce who has not first given me one. How does anybody know what this horse\'s established level is? I like bounce theory as much as the next guy, but you cannot apply it indiscriminately. You need to use a lot of context. To my mind, this horse looks just like Big Brown did coming into the Ky Derby (except nobody is talking about Girolamo having foot problems and Girolamo is 20-1 instead of 2-1). These guys seem to be targeting this race for this horse -- i.e. they are looking for him to peak here. I guess people who do not like the horse are thinking that they peaked him too soon, but I would not be so sure about that. These guys know what they are doing. A lot of people said the same thing about Big Brown\'s KY Derby. One of the things I really like about this horse is that he does not have to move forward to win. He can win with a pair up (although I think he does have some chance at another forward move).
I know everybody is saying that distance and surface are an issue, but I am not so worried. First, it is not like he has tried a test and failed it. There is no evidence to say he does not like the distance or the surface. For all we know, he is better at the longer distances on synth. In terms of distance, I think his pedigree is very powerful. AP Indy is AP Indy. The bottom side of his pedigree is not too shabby. I guess you could say that Mr. Prospector is questionable at the distance, but you have dam\'s dam, and her dam are about as good as you can get. Also, we are getting compensated for him not having tried the distance. Do we think we would be getting 20-1 if his last figure had been run in the Jockey Club Gold Cup rather than the Jerome? A lot of that extra value in the price means we are getting paid for taking the reasonable chance (but not definiteness) that he will get the distance. In terms surface, who the hell knows? I guess people are saying that with the temperatures down, the surface is less of an issue. Also he is apparently training well on it. He is not like the horses that have tried it and not liked it. To me, when I look at Mine That Bird, I see a horse that is two different horses -- a dirt horse and synthetic horse -- unfortunately they bear no relationship to each other.
To be honest, this Classic seems weaker to me than most classics I can remember. You could say that he is 20-1 because he is facing the best horses in the world, but i feel like he has caught a somewhat weak classic. The only horse that really scares me is Einstein and I will be playing him some too. There are a lot of horses that to me are far more likely bounce candidates than Girolamo. Look at Summer Bird. He has had reactions and you can get a better sense of what he is. That is a horse I would say has serious questions about reaction to last figure and surface. Yet, he is 9-2 and Girolamo is 20-1 and their last figures are not that different from each other. (n.b. Summer Bird was my Derby horse this year, if he had been the 50-1 to win instead of Mine That Bird, I would have had the Super once and the trifecta twice, oh well).
Hope I haven\'t jinxed you Lost Cause. All I can say is that if Girolamo goes down (Gyro-Lame-O), it will be with a fair amount of my moola too.
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It\'s a jockey\'s race....Colonel John.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
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I\'m with Uncle Buck.
Prefer Twice Over on a lasix/surface moveup.Should be enough pace and Queally seems capable.Race looks wide open and the price should be right.
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Girolamo did bounce. When he went on the shelf for a year after the 5 as a 2yo. I\'d call that a bounce.
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P Dub,
I am right there with you on the dirt horses today. I took a big swing on a few of them today and I am done with that plan. If they beat me today, ok but it\'s all syn horses on the pro ride for me today.
I also agree on Einstein.
So, in short, you are carrying me on your back today big boy, can you tack 205 lbs?
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I eaten sandwiches bigger than that. Lets get em.....good luck brother.
Love Noble\'s Promise and Aikemite in the Juvenile. My exacta play of the day and playing NP to win.
Also agree with the Cannonball selection, but looks like he will go off less than ML, hopefully not much.
If Interactif gets beat, having the outside post and a monster number to react to, Pounced looks like a good shot. Codoy in the mix too along with the 5 and 7.
Heading out the door, what a beautiful day in Southern California. You may not like synthetics, but you can\'t beat Santa Anita on a warm fall day. I\'m having a great time today, regardless of the results.
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sekrah Wrote:
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> Girolamo did bounce. When he went on the shelf
> for a year after the 5 as a 2yo. I\'d call that a
> bounce.
Well, I guess, if you believe that, he is an easy toss for you. If he had ran a 4th race as a 2 yo and shown a reaction, then I would say he has too much improvement from his 2 yo reaction level and would agree with you that he is an easy toss.
However, I view his 2 yo campaign the same way I would view Rip Van Winkle\'s or Gio Ponti\'s....i.e. as not establishing a reaction point and giving him license for more continued improvement. Although, I can see your point of view, I do not share it. I have seen too many horses confound that view to trust it (besides Gio Ponti and Rip Van Winkle in this race, Big Brown going into the KY derby being a good example of a horse that shows the difference between the two theories).
Theories may also be different for different types of horses...at a lower level....yes, I might be more inclined to agree....but here...we are talking about the upper echelon of racing with a horse that is extremely talented (so good people are willing to really take their time with him). If they did not think they could get him to the Derby, then why not really take time and do what it takes to get him ready for the BC? Looks to me like what they are doing. If his three races this year had been 6 months earlier and he was now coming into the Derby with the same sheet (except this year\'s campaign 6 months earlier), he would probably be the favorite in the Derby. Now, he shows up with a sheet not drastically different and is 20-1 against horses that are not that much better than what he would have faced in the Derby. Seems to me like a major disconnect. Of course, having said all this, he will probably make me look like a fool, but I am going to go down with the ship on this one.
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Standing in line today at breakfast, next to a Godolphin guy, based out of NY. Of course he likes all of them, but he really likes Giralomo. Doing great, gushes about getting on him in the mornings. A gain of salt, sure, but the racing god\'s may be telling me something. Can\'t leave him off.
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I\'m using Einstein, RK, Z, and Twice Over in the Classic.
I do like MTB but I hate the post. Not one horse has come in from the 1 post and the 1 has only been in the top 4 the last two days twice. He\'ll have to angle out unless the rail miraculously opens.I just can\'t see him catching Z. Einstein gets the perfect trip sitting behind RR and QR.
I will throw out ALL of the dirt horses. How much more evidence do we really need to do that?
I have to let Colonel John beat me. Good numbers but his last win was over Becrux and Ferneley (who I like).
Gio is a tough toss and I would use Awesome Gem in any exotic play because he usually runs his race. Unfortunately he\'s a closer from the worst post.