Ask The Experts
General Category => Ask the Experts => Topic started by: smalltimer on August 11, 2010, 05:16:44 AM
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In the Aug 8 Thoroughbred Times, Musket Man trainer Derek Ryan wasn\'t enamored with Quality Road.
\"If we didn\'t press him, the other horse wouldn\'t have won either. Look at it on paper. Quality Road\'s on the inside, he going to go. The other horse has got to go. They should be up there. If they were going :22 and :45, I\'d understand him taking back. But they\'re letting them crawl. It just goes to show if you press him (QR) a little bit, he\'s not as good as they say he is. Just look him in the eye and he\'s counterfeit. Even with those fractions, he\'s supposed to win that race yesterday. I\'ll buy me a rabbit for the next time.\"
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Seriously, you pay attention to crap like that?
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They certainly looked at him in the eye more than once in the Met Mile not to mention his battle with Summer Bird in the JCGC.
I\'m not enamored with Ryan\'s decision to keep MM going long.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
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He\'s had 6 Grade 1 races and passed a total of 2 horses.
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He had at least a 1/2 length lead at every call, so he wasn\'t looking anyone in the eye in that flat mile race.
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I dont like the way he looked and after the wire this past race. Blame looked like he could still go with no problem and QR looked exhausted.
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1-- He\'s often on the lead. That makes it a lot harder to pass horses.
2-- Seriously, you posted an opinion from a) a trainer, b) not a top one, c) on the mental makeup, d) of a horse he doesn\'t even train? What did he do, talk to the horse\'s shrink, or would that be privileged?
REALLY? You thought it was worth posting that on THIS board, like it was Moses handing down the tablets? Do you have any idea where you are at all?
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nyc1347
I don\'t think anybody would disagree that this was not a good race for Quality Road. He should have run better in the stretch and didn\'t look good after the race. But there is a big difference between criticizing this horse\'s last race and criticizing this horse in general. THis is an extremely fast and talented horse that has run extremely fast from 6.5 furlongs to 1 1/4 miles. That is just fact. His \"slow\" races trounce most any active horse (including Zenyatta, even on Zenyatta\'s \"dirt top\", so the \"synthetic figures are different argument\" doesn\'t hold a lot of water.
The question with Quality Road is whether this race was a sign he may go off form or not. (and no, he isn\'t a \"horse for the course\" at Gulfstream, the negative 5 or so in the Met Mile is enough evidence to squash that theory)
On the question of how bad the Whitney race was for Quality Road, it will be interesting to see how TGJB grades the race. With the caveat that I am not a figure maker, the 111 beyer figure \"seemed\" pretty fast to me, eyeballing the rest of the card. If TGJB comes in the same range (adjusted for weight and ground loss), perhaps this was not a particularly slow race for Quality Road and Blame just stepped up pretty big. Although the visual of Quality Road in the stretch off of what seemed like a nice trip, was not good.
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I figured what Ryan said was just as relevant as Pletcher whining about having to spot the 5 pounds to Blame. At any rate, his horse got beat after crawling on the front end and that should never have happened. Something isn\'t right with the horse. All the usual suspects (pace, troubled trip, bad post, etc) should be dismissed. What other factors come into play? Nothing other than he\'s never won a race at 10 furlongs or carrying 126#\'s, both of which he\'ll have to overcome if he\'s gonna take the big one at Churchill against a bunch of good horses, with at least 1 and maybe 2 great females to spot weight to.
He looks like the classic speed horse that has to have the lead. I\'ll agree he\'s almost on the lead which makes it even more disturbing to me that he hasn\'t shown whatever it takes to pass another good horse in races when he doesn\'t have the lead.
Thought this forum was about horses. Should I have been commenting on this BASEBALL FORUM about a former great player who\'s been deceased for 30 years? Or maybe I was confused and forgot I was on a GOLF FORUM for struggling golfers?
Maybe one of the Commandments should be \"thou shalt not wager on any front-running horse that\'s never won at the distance or carried the required weight.\"
Whatever.....
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My point of view from his pattern read is that if he ran worse than his last effort of negative 5 that he may be simply reacting from the fastest 2 turn effort of all time (the neg 7.5). All the BC Champs that ran this fast were able to pair and/or be consistently \"in line\" at this redic fast level (ghostzapper, midnight lute, invasor, saint liam, curlin, even barnardini who ran 2nd). QR may need to show us somewhere close to a top effort so we have at least some kind of indication that the Neg 7.5 didnt effect him forever. also keep in mind that with a lot of rest from the neg 7.5 that he bounced 2 points... with less rest he may have (which we will see) run even slower this past race. I think he ran about a Neg 3-4 or so this past race. If that is the case, as much as that may be faster than many horses who are running theres no point of expecting him to fire well when he keeps going backwards from his best race this year. The projection of his next couple starts to me would not be good at all.
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Seriously Part II-- you just said that what some guy said about the psyche of the horse is as relevant as one about spotting 5 pounds? For real?
Again, DO YOU KNOW WHERE YOU ARE? It\'s not \"a forum about horses\". There are lots of those, you should go to one. It\'s the Thoro-Graph site, for serious students of handicapping. We use performance figures here. They factor in weight. 5 pounds at that distance is worth just under 2 lengths.
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RUFFIAN never passed a horse in her life......what\'s your point?
Good Luck,
Joe B.
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Jimbo-- I have it roughly the same as Beyer. They don\'t use ground or weight, but they basically offset in this case for QR-- high weight but saved ground.
I had the track getting slower, but it was also the only two turn race so you have to do it off the horses in that race anyway. As it happens it fit with the previous 1 turn race the way I did it, with Blame pairing up.
The big question is what the effect of all these big efforts are on a horse with soundness issues. It would be a question even without them. But his losing effort was better than the winning efforts of pretty much everyone else this year aside from Rachel.
A point to keep in mind is that if Rachel or Z go against colts in the BC they will be getting weight.
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Hey, maybe QR\'s small intrinsic muscles were out of whack...maybe he needs some cross-training. Or maybe you don\'t know what you\'re talking about.
Seriously, he\'s a fast horse, but that\'s it. He had a mediocre effort (by his standards.) He was beaten by a nice horse who put a couple of high level efforts together.
Secreatariat lost the Wood Memorial and then annihilated the best of his generation. I don\'t think you would have been on firm ground questioning his psyche or his future AT THAT POINT.
Quality Road ain\'t Secretariat, but hold on to your money, betting against him.
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I\'m taking a \'we will see going forward in the future attitude \' . I didn\'t believe he\'d run a top or secondary effort but thought QR would be good enough still to handle the competition .
He looked to me heated up behind the gate pre-race and didn\'t see the replay but I don\'t recall the horse really being asked for anything by the Jockey in the lane . ..
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I doubt if they\'ll be talking about Quality Road 35 years from now.
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Quality Road and Secretariat in the same sentence?
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That commandment has already been written by Mr. Harvey Pack. For over 20 years he rambled on and on about \" never ever bet a horse as the favorite doing something he has not done before. \"
If your subscribing to Harvey Pack, Andy Beyer, Andy Serling or any other babbling idiot on television who call themselves a professional handicapper or non relevant trainers who have never won a race even worth talking about ?
Your in the wrong place here !!!
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It\'s a comparison of circumstances, pal. An off race does not make a career. You\'re a real character...but not a colorful one.
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At some point a \"pattern\" gets trumped because of time off. In this case QR was off since Memorial Day ( ten weeks) and that is well outside a normal interval.
All in all, I think his race was very good, just not his best. bbb
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Quality Road and Secretariat in the same sentence? Of course. As TGJB said, \"It\'s the Thoro-Graph site, for serious students of handicapping. We use performance figures here.\" So Quality Road is superior to Secretariat. Why not use them in the same sentence?
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What was Ruffian\'s best figure?
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Not again...
Also, pretty sure the sentence itself did not compare them in ability to begin with.
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smalltimer Wrote:
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>
> Thought this forum was about horses. Should I
> have been commenting on this BASEBALL FORUM about
> a former great player who\'s been deceased for 30
> years? Or maybe I was confused and forgot I was
> on a GOLF FORUM for struggling golfers?
Just when I was thinking about writing some movie reviews, too. Probably put that idea on hold for a while.
Struggling golfers??? Must have been those guys playing in the Ragozin Open.
As for Quality Road, not sure about anyone looking him in the eye, but I did see Johnny V. turn to his inside and not see anybody, and shortly afterward turn outside to see Blame rolling up on his flank. Not a criticism, just an observation. One very good horse beat another very good horse. That\'s as deep as I get into it until they show up on the TG sheets the next time.
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bellsbendboy Wrote:
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> At some point a \"pattern\" gets trumped because of
> time off. In this case QR was off since Memorial
> Day ( ten weeks) and that is well outside a normal
> interval.
>
> All in all, I think his race was very good, just
> not his best. bbb
what do u mean it gets trumped bc of time off? the rest he needed was bc of such a tremndous effort. knowing he is at this new level of racing we have to put the pieces together from that top number on.. possibly started with the race before this past one but so far its a backwards/reaction pattern off a career top,, we have to see this last number to verify whats going on.
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When a horse like QR, gets highly favorable dynamics(very slow half got his caliber) and gets beat, its a poor effort and you can pickle the figure. Maybe he\'s tired or just had a bad day.QR had no excuse and the weight spot he gave was beyond totally mitigated by the highly favorable trip he enjoyed.Horses all meet have been wiring at the 1 1/8 th mile distance to boot.
The guy who trains him and the guy who sits on him some mornings thought he would whistle and were very disappointed despite the bs excuses given publicly.
Mike
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moosepalm Wrote:
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> One very good horse beat another very good horse.
This is the best post on this thread..I really don\'t think Blame has gotten enough credit. This is a very good horse. He caught a loose on the lead horse in the Stephen Foster last time while going very wide on both turns. He did it again Saturday. He is just a very good horse and seemingly getting better. As far as BC time it\'s gonna be fun watching Big Z and him fighting it out to the wire.
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Miff wrote:
\"Horses all meet have been wiring at the 1 1/8 th mile distance to boot.\"
How many races have been run at that distance this meet? How many of them were won wire to wire?
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moosepalm Wrote:
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> One very good horse beat another very good horse.
> That\'s as deep as I get into it until they show up
> on the TG sheets the next time.
Thank you.
This \"looked him in the eye\" stuff is just that, stuff. As in mierda.
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Not enough to call it a bias.
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Miff wrote:
\"Horses all meet have been wiring at the 1 1/8 th mile distance to boot.\"
Well, I just got an email from \"Informed Eyes\" (now there\'s a term that needs to be consigned to the dustbin), and, assuming it is accurate, there have been 17 races run at that distance this meet, and only 4 of the 17 have been won wire to wire, with the most recent wire-to-wire victory being back on August 1st.
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Rich,
Actually 9 during the period I was referring to with 4 wires( and two others lead most of the way and finished close) within 8 days of QR\'s pathetic loose lead unpressured no excuse effort.
Ahem, would you like to go head to head with someone with \"informed eyes\" before you put it in the dustbin.I can arrange it, let me know.
Mike
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Miff wrote:
\"Actually 9 during the period I was referring to with 4 wires\"
The period you were referring to was, in your words, \"all meet.\" So how about if you give me the \"all meet\" wire stats at the time that you made your assertion?
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Ok Rich you\'re correct,closers have dominated at the 1 1/8 mile and QR had every right to get run over.
How come you ignored the invite to pick up easy money from someone with \"informed eyes\" Don\'t you like easy money??
Mike
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I\'ll get to your attempted subject-changer (whatever it is) in a minute, Miff, but first I\'d like to finish the subject at hand.
You wrote:
\"Horses all meet have been wiring at the 1 1/8 th mile distance to boot.\"
And of course this turned out to be complete and total nonsense.
Then, backtracking almost off the face of the earth, you wrote:
\"Actually 9 during the period I was referring to with 4 wires\"
What period, exactly, was this? What date to what date? The reason I ask is that it was written by you, which means it, too, probably needs to be looked at more closely.
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Rich,
You are boring me and I\'m sure the board.I made comments from my memory of watching and catching several wire jobs at the 1 1/8, a couple on one day. I did not go back and check it stat wise. The point was that QR had no excuse on several levels,loose or not.Pssst 25% wires at that distance is above par anyway, duh!
Now lets get to the heart of your smart ass comment re \'informed eyes\' and put up or shut up!Quess you\'re just a board troll with no real knowledge/opinion or cajones(sp)
Mike
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Thank you Mike for saving me the trouble ... Without mentioning statistics I would also stand by any comment that said \"speed in routes has been particularly dangerous\" all meet. I do concede however that my wagering has been surgical in nature ... picking my spots and finishing off the board, losing the patient ... Never said I was a Dr. Lucky for me the Raffie/Rosario show has kept me in the game until next weekend, when I crush Arlington ... Best of weekend lads (& ladies) !!!
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Miff wrote:
\"You are boring me and I\'m sure the board.\"
Ah, yes! One should be ever vigilant against the soporific, which brings to mind Clive James\' review of Leonid Brezhnev\'s memoirs:
\"Here is a book so dull that a whirling dervish could read himself to sleep with it. If it were to be read in the open air, birds would fall stunned from the sky.\"
(Credit to Christopher Hitchens for passing these lines along in his grand memoir, \"Hitch 22,\" and may he somehow, please, find his way back to good health.)
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\'Now lets get to the heart of your smart ass comment re \'informed eyes\' and put up or shut up!Quess you\'re just a board troll with no real knowledge/opinion or cajones(sp)\'
Nice. I\'ll tell you what. Rich is a good friend and the best handicapper I know. He does have very little patience for garbage being spewed as fact. But you come up with a format and Rich and I will gladly go head to head with you and \'informed eyes\'. I do like easy money.
Frank
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50k in action a day isn\'t enough for you?
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Takeout can be a bitch, even with rebates.
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\'Now lets get to the heart of your smart ass comment re \'informed eyes\' and put up or shut up!Quess you\'re just a board troll with no real knowledge/opinion or cajones(sp)\'
Nice. I\'ll tell you what. Rich is a good friend and the best handicapper I know. He does have very little patience for garbage being spewed as fact. But you come up with a format and Rich and I will gladly go head to head with you and \'informed eyes\'. I do like easy money.
PLEASE e-mail me Frank!
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Mistake.
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JB,
I know more than you think about what type of player I am dealing with.There isn\'t a Kool Aid drinker on the planet that I won\'t take on head to head. Check with Richie(raggie)how he make out against me using inane sheet racing theories and phony wide RAG figures.
Mike
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Would love to see the 2 of you post races in advance with explanations behind selections.
Instead of getting into a \"limb\" swinging contest, put up a modest sum of money and the winner donates it to the racehorse charity of choice.
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Paul,
I consider touting on this site to be impolite since these guys get paid for their selections.
Soon there is going to be Exchange Betting and I am dying to see which so called \"pro\'s\" show up and for what amount, no spreading,no rebates, just opinion against opinion.
Mike
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Been playing at Betfair for a long time. Canada is a civilized country. Hope y\'all join the party soon.
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Well, the guy you are considering taking on is, as far as I know, the most succesful day in day out horseplayer in North America who is not using betting software, just making his own decisions. Ask around, if you are wired in you know a lot of people who know who he is.
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Thanks for the kind words but it appears to be a non event. Miff proposes a format that is unacceptable to me and he doesn\'t appear all that interested in my ideas. We\'re also $90K apart in the proposed stakes, he being the high man. Not dead yet though.
Frank
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Three guys who were previously said to be the most successful players in the country:
(NO NAMES)
#1. Passed last year owing $180k to Vegas and some NY wise guys.
#2. Looking to borrow $100K until early 2011 when he gets his tax withholding back, app $250k
#3. Desperate to sell a home for $1Million because he\'s broke.
Don\'t know anyone from Canada alleged to be a pro beating the game but certainly know thoses in NY and CALI, none are named Frank.
Mike
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I\'m betting 5 minutes and two phone calls will produce five people who know who he is. Try any rebater.
Or just ask Desormeaux\'s agent...
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As of end of Wed the 18th.
I can tell you that 13 races were run @ 9F and that 23% were won w2w on fast and 4 races were run @ 9F on wet tract and 1 out of 4 won w2w. However horses running 1/2/3 at the top of the stretch have won @ 50% so far this meet.
Does that help you any?
If you want the stats i got them all....I do mean all, any track any day all the time.....
Now if i can only find the time to keep playing....
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One other thing to add to this, the Average field size for this distance is 6.8 horses per race. This may have a lot do do with those results mentioned earlier.
NCT