Ask The Experts
General Category => Ask the Experts => Topic started by: MonmouthGuy on November 05, 2010, 07:05:26 PM
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Dead rail, speed holding up pretty well off the rail. Synth horses not jumping up synth to dirt. Any other thoughts.
ESPN showed BCC Classic odds briefly. Didn\'t see them all but Zenyatta was 3-5, no other horse was under 10-1 and Haynesfield was 30-1 and the 7th choice. Obviously a small pool, but extrapolated I think Z will go off under her ML and If he handles pre-race better than LaT, Haynesfield could be a real bomb and will be speed off the rail. Johnny V is going to have to go to get QR out of there.
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Is there any chance that the track will play differently tomorrow, or do you guys expect the same thing.
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Anybody know how to find the Distaff-Classic DD Will Pays?
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$2 will-pays, Unbridled Belle (#8) with:
1. Quality Road, $100.80
2. Paddy O’Prado, $419
3. Haynesfield, $241.40
4. First Dude, $638.80
5. Blame, $89
6. Fly Down, $247
7. Musket Man, $304.20
8. Zenyatta, $42.20
9. Pleasant Prince, $1,171
10. Etched, $809
11. Espoir City, $415
12. Lookin At Lucky, $87.20
Double pool, $523,311
Early win odds, BC Classic
1. Quality Road, 12-1
2. Paddy O’Prado, 32-1
3. Haynesfield, 30-1
4. First Dude, 14-1
5. Blame, 8-1
6. Fly Down, 27-1
7. Musket Man, 36-1
8. Zenyatta, 3-5
9. Pleasant Prince, 83-1
10. Etched, 77-1
11. Espoir City, 54-1
12. Lookin At Lucky, 9-2
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Monmouth,
Would disagree on speed holding well off the rail. The key to the day was the rail was dead, period. No opinion on speed IMO.
The winning move in the dirt races was stalking the pace midpack then sweeping on the far turn. Not sure if that was just because those happened to be a lot of the fast horses that were in that position (Unrivaled Belle and Dubai Majesty to name a couple).
To understate the obvious, we need to pay attention to the first few races early tomorrow. I am no track super, but if any sharp player noticed the bias, then have to believe they will work overnight to try and get it fixed. (not sure how that happens though as I don\'t even know what the process would be to get it fixed, since I don\'t know what caused the bias).
Not great for Quality Road tomorrow, amongst other inside speeds.
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WOW,
I thought for sure my double with Lucky would be well north of $ 100.00 and certainly not second choice.
Anyone else notice how much the ML odds have been off all day ? Not even close.
Hopefully tomorrow will have bigger pools, less sharpies or at least diluted by volume and a 5 million dollar pick 6 pool ?
A tough day for sure when you have 3 double digit winners in a pick 4 and can\'t get Midday home !!!
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Thanks for your thoughts.
I thought Jeremy Rose did all he could do with Havre de Grace considering the dead rail. His 3W/3W trip was certainly preferable to the alternative. She ran big.
I loved Big Drama tomorrow. Now will have to pay attention early.
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Jimbo,
It may have been created and \" those in charge \" may not want it to go away ???
What human interest story would benefit most from such a track ? Stranger things have happened remember the Belmont with Easy Goer & Sunday Silence ? Charlie Whittingham went to his grave screaming about that track !!!
I watched the races and wagered pretty intently on Wednesday & Thursday and I would have called the main track speed friendly but fair.
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Frank
The pools were fine today. The morning line was just awful in a bunch of races. Many saw this right after Battaglia posted it. I thought he was just an awful announcer, but he makes a lousy morning line too. Speaking of which, the favorite for worst ML in a BC race tomorrow is Battaglia\'s decision to make Morning Line the favorite in the Dirt Mile. No way.
I think the DD is about right with LAL. I was hoping for 80 to 100 for QR and LAL, which are my two keys (also took a small flyer with Fly Down).
LAL was co-favored with Zenyatta in British offshore betting until a week ago. Not saying he should be co-favored, but it was a sign he has support.
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Frank D.
I hear you, but nobody swept from last to win today (at least not that I can remember).
The mid-pack/stalk outside pounce on the turn move was the winning move.
My problem is that nobody with a decent shot tomorrow in the classic has that style. Blame/LAL/Zeny are way back. QR is pressing. Haynesfield is on the pace.
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The DD is actually a pretty fair approximation of what everyone thought the odds \"should\" look like. Blame and L@L are twice the price of Zenyatta (say 5/2 and 5/1 give or take) with QR right there after them. But it does definitely appear as though Haynesfield is going to be huge. In both the double and the early odds he is 2.5 times the price of Quality Road. Fly Down and Musket Man both are next in both (30:1 give or take) and then the stragglers. Other than First Dude\'s price in the Early (which clearly is just due to only 100k in the pool) all seems pretty much in the right order, other than Zenyatta of course being so low in the Early.
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Just being a wishful greedy pig I guess !!!
How do you use 8 of 11 horses in a field and not get the winner ???
Logical Answer: You handicap too much like Richie and I.
Good luck tomorrow.
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phil,
I really though Lucky would be 3rd or 4th choice in the Classic and Belle was 5th choice in an 11 horse field ?
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Daily Doubles are very foolish wagers when one of the legs has a massive public favorite like Z in it, unless you plan on using Z in the double of course. You are flushing money down the toilet playing this double with any other horse in the Classic.
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Musket Man. Unless you think a neg 2, neg 3 isn\'t fast enough.
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Sekrah,
I can\'t even decipher this post. What is your point?
DD are foolish wagers unless you are playing Zenyatta? Yet, you have made about 50 posts about Zenyatta having no chance to win.
What is this, your \"hedge post\".
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No.. This has nothing to do with my opinion of the race. My point is that the win pools are going to be much more inflated towards Zenyatta than the exotics because of the public win money on her.
If you like Zenyatta to win, you should have been using her in the DD, single her in pick 3s, etc..
If you like anyone else to win, you shouldn\'t be playing the DD\'s and should just play the bloated overlay rich win pool.
DD will pays: Zenyatta paying $42, Blame $89, Quality Road $100.
Will Blame be 2-1 or QR 5/2 in the Classic win pool? Because Zenyatta is looking like she might be very close to even money.
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That doesn\'t make any sense - if doubles including Zenyatta were taking all the moeny then every otehr combination would be paying higher than if she wasn\'t in the race. If you think Zenyatta has no shot then the double is a great bet, no?
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Sekrah,
At $89 and $100, with a $17 horse in the 1st leg, that doesn\'t equate to 2-1 and 5-2. Closer to 4-1 and 9-2.
But you could be right that Blame and QR go off a LITTLE bit higher than 4-1 and 9-2.
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No Bet Twice, again, my opinion of Zenyatta\'s chances is 100% completely besides the point. It\'s totally irrelevant in this discussion about proper bet crafting.
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Sek,
You\'re saying the value is in the win pools, because Z will be so overbet the win prices will be inflated compared to the DD prices. Am I following you correctly ??
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Battaglia may have blown a few of the races, but the Distaff/Classic double will-pays indicate the actual odds of The Classic will be extremely close to his M/L. The only real aberration was that First Dude is 15-1 m/l, but the will-pays indicate he\'ll be closer to 50-1.
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P-Dub Wrote:
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> Sek,
>
> You\'re saying the value is in the win pools,
> because Z will be so overbet the win prices will
> be inflated compared to the DD prices. Am I
> following you correctly ??
Paul,
The value on Zen, to the degree you think there is any, will likely show up in the exotics pools. The fan/adoration money appears, for the most part, in the win pool.
If ESPN is talking about your horse, head immediately to the exotics pools.
Remember the media talking about Calvin and Super Saver? He was 8-1 in the win pool, but 11-1 in the exotics.
Hope you killed em today. Sounds like you did.
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Yes. The public bettor that casually follows horse racing that plans on betting on Zenyatta likely doesn\'t have a clue about the Classics\' double.
A person who likes Zenyatta to win would get far more value by singling her in this pool.
A person who doesn\'t like Zenyatta gets more value out of the win pool and exacta, trifecta bets (bets that the public knows about and throws their money at).
I didn\'t get a look at all the payouts from the potential winners of the Ladies Classic but I\'m pretty sure I would get far more value out of crafting a weighted double bet with Blind Luck ($10), Havre de Grace ($3), Life at Ten ($3), Malibu Prayer ($2), Unbridled Belle ($2) w/Zenyatta for $20 than I would get from betting $20 on Zenyatta to win on her.
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Here, I found the classic double pools.
1-8 $28
3-8 $60
8-8 $42
10-8 $14
11-8 $50
$7 on Blind Luck-Zenyatta = $56
$4 on Life At Ten-Zenyatta = $56
$3 on Unbridled Belle-Zenyatta = $63
$2 on Havre de Grace-Zenyatta = $50
$2 on Malibu Prayer-Zenyatta = $60
$18 double bet on the only 5 contenders in the Ladies Classic guarantees no worse than 5/2 on Zenyatta. If you toss LAT from your ticket, you\'re getting 3-1 to 4-1. Think you\'re getting 5/2 or 3-1 in the win pool on Z tomorrow?
If you liked Z to win, you missed an opportunity to create some pretty big value for yourself.
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I think Haynesfield sits right off it, he will never be on the lead
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Frank:
I bet two P4s and a P3 yesterday and didn\'t have a sniff. To put a positive spin
on things, my losses were cut neatly in half by the availability of $.50
increments.
Alive in \"Classic\" Doubles to LAL, Blame, Zen and Fly Down. I did not \"weight\" the
doubles so Fly Down would be a pretty decent score for me.
Hard to call it a \"bad\" day -- great racing, sandwiches from my favorite spot in
Red Hook (Marcus knows where I\'m talking about), a refrigerator full of ice cold
ones, and best of all another great day of races to come.
Not really a P6 player, but the carryover is 800K +, might need to take a look.
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Agreed, HAynesfield doesn\'t have to be on the lead. He can sit a few lengths off, he\'s done it before.
If he stays around 25/30-1 he is big value.