Ask The Experts
General Category => Ask the Experts => Topic started by: mjellish on April 10, 2011, 02:53:24 PM
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I agree with what several others on this board have said about this year\'s crop being slow and unremarkable. In addition, many of the ones that have shown something don\'t look like they have the classic breeding lines to move up at 1 1/4. Meaning that someone with a decent looking pattern that is going to like the distance has a good decent shot of lumping up into the winner\'s circle, or least hitting the board.
As a reference, take a look at the breeding lines of some recent KY Derby winners and compare them to some of this year\'s crop.
Super Saver – Maria’s Mon, Super Charger (A.P. Indy)
Mine That Bird – Birdstone, Mining My Own (Smart Strike)
Big Brown – Boundry, Mien (Nureyev)
Street Sense – Street Cry, Bedazzle (Dixieland Band)
Barbaro – Dynaformer, La Ville Rouge (Carson City)
Giacomo – Holy Bull, Set Them Free (Stop the Music)
Smarty Jones – Elusive Quality, I’ll Get Along (Smile)
Funy Cide – Distorted Humor, Bell’s Good Cide (Slewacide)
War Emblem – Our Emblem, Sweetest Lady (Lord at War)
Monarchos – Maria’s Mon, Regal Band (Dixieland Band)
Fusaichi Pegasus – Mr. Prospector, Angel Fever (Danzig)
Charismatic – Summer Squall, Bali Babe (Drone)
Real Quiet – Quiet American, Really Blue (Believe It)
Silver Charm – Silver Buck, Bonnie’s Poker (Poker)
Grindstone – Unbridled, Buzz My Bell (Drone)
Thunder Gulch – Gulch, Line of Thunder (Storm Bird)
Go For Gin – Cormorant, Never Knock (Stage Door Johnny)
Sea Hero – Polish Navy, Glowing Tribute (Graustark)
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I agree with your assessment.
If O\'Brien decides to come, do you give Master of Hounds a chance? I thought his comeback race in the Dubai Derby was very good, it was at approximately 1 3/16 miles on a track that should leg him up and his time stacked up well against the World Cup. Also, while his breeding is grassy, it has many stamina influences.
Could this be the year for a European runner?
Albany
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What\'s all this MoH talk? Didn\'t he run like an 8 in Dubai? There\'s 100 3yo\'s here who have done more than him.
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I think it is coming about because on Dubai World Cup day, there was a mention that they were thinking about bringing MOH over if he did well.
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If he does he will be the only truly 10-12 furlong horse in the field. Superstar breeding with Kingmambo as the sire and a Sadler\'s Wells dam. But, it is nothing but turf, so it is a chancy proposition. The plus is that he needed the race in Dubai, so he most certainly will improve off that effort. I might throw a flyer bet on him, but couldn\'t back him in the Derby with much confidence. Does anybody know if he trained on the dirt at Churchill when he was there for the BC?
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Arthurs Tale has a 10 furlong mother and father if we\'re talking about pedigree only.
Owsley won at 10 and 11 furlongs-Bernardini at 10.
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Amazing game, two starts back Arthur was hanging like a slug against inner track common types. MO bombs and every horse in the race now has a little license.
Mike
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Miff:
Great point. We all tend to get caught up in an isolated event, especially if it was recent. A derby winner normally has an overall profile as opposed to one recent line.
I would seriously doubt that the Toby\'s Corners or Arthur\'s Tales of this field (including the Baffert maiden) end up wearing the roses.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
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I really feel that mjellish put the breeding angle in perspective...
For years, I was obsessed with breeding and \"dosage\" by Rasmussen....I kept notes on chef de races and so on. It wasn\'t until I dropped dosage entirely after Stike the Gold...that success ensued...
Food for thought...Mr.Prospector was one of our most influential sire of modern breeding..Yet Mr.Prospecter was a 1:08 sprinter on the race track.. John Henry was sired by Ole Bob Bowers and Sunday Silience was literally a \"Black Duckling\" whose dam had no black type in her past. SUnday Silence went on to become the most prolific sire in Japan racing...JMHO
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The overall body of work of Toby\'s Corner doesn\'t seem all that bad to me. Why should we be negative on him at this point. Don\'t know what figure he got in the Wood. If he went back, then I guess the line doesn\'t look so good. But if he went forward a little from his last number, wouldn\'t that be a decent line going into the Derby?
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Jim P,
Think it was a small forward move but he had a very good inside trip(was stopped very briefly mid stretch). Can you really see him in a 20 horse field overcoming any kind of ground loss/tough trip and winning? Not that any of the other ones can but he only seems to be a nice colt with just decent figs.
With MO now looking mortal, the derby is a skullbuster today.Maybe the last 2 preps will shed some more light.
Mike
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I hear Baffert\'s maiden looked phenomenal on the way back to the Barn after the race and has been killing his feed.
Something else interesting. MI\'s final furlong was about 12.2. The check in the stretch to CTTT moving out, that caused MI to lose alot of momentum was about 10 feet short of the 1 1/8 pole.
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That is a nice final furlong time, but the Beyer came back at 95. Could it be a case similar to Colonel John where he just won\'t be fast enough? That\'s still a lot of improvement needed to win on the first Saturday in May.
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I would hope they came home quick. Given the times they\'ve been running at SA (:45 halves and 1:09 6F), going :47.3 and 1:11.5 is downright pedestrian. But there\'s no doubt it was a good performance - especially with the check in the stretch. Looked the part of a horse that belongs.
The downside was that he narrowly beat CTTT, who had finished 4th in his two previous races (maybe with excuses in each). Comma\'s connections, until yesterday, seemed convinced that he wasn\'t a classic distance horse. MI is coming off two big performances in a row, which suggests a bounce coming. Got passed on the gallop out by three horses to his inside. And looking at his races, this seems like a horse who doesn\'t like to take dirt (being outside probably cost him a win in his second). This pattern - big win in the slop, big win in a top flight stakes race, flopping when caught behind horses - we\'ve seen already this spring.
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MI\'s maiden win was a big performance?
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That\'s about how I was viewing him. A nice colt with decent figures. Maybe a good pattern, need to see the figure for the Wood. At this point I\'m not sure that there are other contenders to which we can offer much more praise than that. I think he belongs in the Derby with these. As always, it\'s a crap shoot on which ones will get a trip, and which ones won\'t. I most likely won\'t be playing him on Derby day because with the win in the Wood beating Uncle Mo, he probably will go off at lower odds than I will find attractive. But as a possible contender I\'m not totally negative on him like so many others on here seem to be. It will be interesting to see the Wood figure and then the odds in the Derby.
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I know there are people that differ with me about my opinion about 1 1/4 being different than 1 1/8th, but I think it does matter. I will always ignore breeding after I see a horse outrun his breeding \"distance limitations\" as I think on-track performance trumps breeding. And if no one wants to go 2 miles, someone will still cross the finish line first. So all horses can get whatever distance if none of the competition gets there first.
With regards to this year\'s crop, which I think is weak, I think this may play into how I bet the race even more than usual. Because I was already looking at a horse like Uncle Mo as being pretty suspect to deliver a top performance at 1 1/4. And a horse like the The Factor will probably have a tough time trying to go wire to wire against a 20 horse field and having enough left in the stretch to hold off what will probably turn out to be this year\'s Giacomo. Dialed In wasn\'t exactly flying home late as much as everyone else was staggering, but he looked good doing it and I would bet Zito will have this guy cranked. Baffert\'s SA Derby winner looked good, but I would need to see a lot more to regard him as a serious derby horse. Light on experience and coming off a lifetime top, with no foundation, isn\'t exactly the profile of a derby winner. But who knows this year... If he trains lights out, why not him?
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Against nobodys, admittedly, but was in front by 10+ before the jock stepped off the gas. Winning by 8 while walking across the line? How about, \"a very good effort\"?
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TG 7.25 which put him in the mix with the rest of the slow SA Derby field after PP and Jaycito scratched out.
Comma at the Top fastest horse in that field(after defections)but with obvious distance issues.His camp is crazy thinking about running him in the Derby.
MI obviously improved a bunch on Saturday w/wide factored in.
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mjellish Wrote:
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why not him?
I\'m betting this will be the most frequently used phrase on the board during the next four weeks.
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Does anyone know what TG # it takes historically to win the Derby? I would think something like -2. How many can realistically improve from 6-7 to -1 to -2 in the space of 4-5 weeks?
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Meanwhile, Mucho Macho Man is traveling under the radar. Can I get 20-1 Derby Day?
Why not HIM?
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You can view the sheets in the archive. Been a while since I looked, but I would say anything around a 0 puts you there.
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95 Beyer, but also 3w4w. The Factor has a 103 beyer in the Rebel with a rail trip.
Looks like possibly a 1 for Midnight Interlude in the SA Derby.
Bob Baffert, trainer of Midnight Interlude, said his horse was “not tired at all” after the race, in which he earned a Beyer of 95.
“He might be the real deal,” Baffert said Monday.
I concur: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WA2lP0sM2t8
If this horse is working strong at Churchill 5 days before the Derby, only a fool would leave him off their tickets.
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sekrah Wrote:
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> 95 Beyer, but also 3w4w. The Factor has a 103
> beyer in the Rebel with a rail trip.
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> Looks like possibly a 1 for Midnight Interlude in
> the SA Derby.
>
>
> Bob Baffert, trainer of Midnight Interlude, said
> his horse was “not tired at all” after the race,
> in which he earned a Beyer of 95.
>
> “He might be the real deal,” Baffert said Monday.
>
>
> I concur:
> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WA2lP0sM2t8
>
> If this horse is working strong at Churchill 5
> days before the Derby, only a fool would leave him
> off their tickets.
Thanks for clarifying. I forgot about the 3w4w. So the horse is already competitive. A 1 or 0 just might be good enough to win this year. I certainly thought the horse was visually impressive in the race. Disappointed in Indian Winter though. Had hoped that one would run better. I like those Indian Charlies at the mile to 1 1/8.
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Midnight Interlude has a tactical advantage in a 20 horse field with a lot of the other contenders appearing to be off the pace closing types subject to racing luck.
Dam sire Groom Dancer was a G1 winner on grass at the distance.
Baffert the other positive factor.
Big jump up in the SA Derby if in the 1 to 2 range could be viewed as negative.Some crash in the Derby others haven\'t.Point Determined(2006 Baffert)was one that jumped to a 1 in the SA Derby then squat at Churchill.
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Baffert in the Derby FWIW:
His only horses to run 1-2 were all coming in off pairs.
Cavonnier
Silver Charm
Real Quiet
War Emblem
Pioneer of the Nile
All of them either paired or moved forward at Churchill.
Four of his Derby runners jumped up(3 or more)in their final prep:
Indian Charlie 3.75 to a 3.0
Indian Express 6.0 to a 1.0
Point Determined 3.0 to a 1.0
Sinister Minister 8.0 to a ridiculous -4.5
Indian Charlie backed up 1.5 in the Derby to get in the tri but the other three crashed.
Relevant to Midnight Interlude? Maybe or maybe not-just thought I\'d put it out there.
Good luck Jim Covello and Swift Warrior in the Blue Grass.
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Remember though, War Emblem made a big 8 point jump and held it for 3 races.
Midnight Interlude just looks so relaxed and rateable. It seems like Espinoza could do whatever the hell he wants with him. He looks unflappable too. It doesn\'t look like much bothers him.
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Post position will be more important for him than for the deep closers. Way outside or inside will be serious trouble. If he\'s outside of horses four wide in a field of 9, where\'s he gonna be on the first turn in May?
As to how he reacts to the jump up, this may sound a little silly but the week-of clocker report seems to have been not far off in recent years, concerning who is ready to put in a big effort.
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Since 2003 the average winning TG number is -1 with the slowest (1 1/2) being Funny Cide and the fastest being Big Brown (-4 3/4). 2003 was the only derby that the winner didn\'t get the best number but don\'t overlook what may be the most important factor in winning that race, which is the trip. Funny Cide, Street Sense, Mine That Bird and Super Saver were all won while being either 1W/1W or 1W/2W on the turns in their respective races. So the key may figuring out which horse has the ability, combined with the post position and the jockey to navigate that type of trip.
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And which horse Calvin is riding