Ask The Experts
General Category => Ask the Experts => Topic started by: Dana666 on June 26, 2011, 10:48:25 AM
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A few thoughts:
Oh Canada: Has the physical appearance of a horse that will appreciate the added distance. His speed is an asset too in a big field where most of the other contenders are going to have to rally through traffic. Can\'t blame you if you fancy him some at juicy odds, but I have a hard time with his sheet pattern--to me it doesn\'t scream new top?! Best shot to go wire to wire and hope the others encounter trouble. We all know how hard it is to rally on polytrack -they usually get really tired late.
Inglorious: Powerful filly will have her backers. She too will need to rally though, and I have some question as to whether the distance will suit her. I have enough questions not to be thrilled with the relatively short price in a huge field.
Check Your Soul: Look, if you want to try and beat a heavy favorite in a 17-horse field, no one could argue, esp. when he breaks slow and may well have to pass them all, but I will say this horse\'s ability appears to be from another planet. He strikes me as a breeder\'s cup type. As far as the ROTW analyst questioning his ability to get the distance--Sadler\'s Wells is one of the great stamina influences in modern racing, and he\'s out of an Unbridled mare to boot, not sure how he reaches that conclusion? It\'s his race to win or lose, I do think only the trip could do him in. I mean he will have to rally wide in a huge field at a mile and a quarter -- boy that\'s tough sledding on polytrack for all but a superhorse. He\'ll be much lower than 3-1 too.
Quuensplatekitten: Aptly named! He had a perfect (easy) prep race over the track for this, and Johnny V comes in to ride. Unlike Soul, he can stalk the pace. I think he is very dangerous at any price. I also think he has the best line on the sheets as well. Nice improvement and nice spacing plus just about the fastest.
Bowman\'s Causeway: Yet another who seems a huge factor in this race. His sheet line is puzzling to me though, always the same number??? Needs a big top here and by the look of his prep race, it might be coming. He galloped out well, too. A decent price perhaps if you don\'t like the favorites. I wouldn\'t say he couldn\'t win this, but I\'m not in love with him either.
Seawatch: Does deserve a BTL note for his last in which he had no shot b/c of the pace and track bias. I will say I wouldn\'t have liked to see a little more fight late though and he basically just made a big half mile move, is that something to build a mile and a quarter victory on? Needs a big forward move.
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How great it is to see such a nice field. Contrast it to the 4-6 horse fields at Hollywood Park. If I like Queen\'splatekitten, I am getting 7-1 at present. That is SO much better than Hollywood Park where I might get 2:1 at best in a short field.
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Yeah, no kidding. The 8/5 favorite would be 1/9 in a small field.
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Or instead of whining about short fields, pick your spots and hit a nice priced winner. Lots of big fields produce small mutuels too.
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Wow, the filly got it done! No competition from the boys. As far as Check Your Soul my comment was right on: \"he will have to rally wide in a huge field at a mile and a quarter -- boy that\'s tough sledding on polytrack for all but a superhorse.\" He also seemed really washed out in the post parade - there was an inexplicably long delay to the post. Play him when he moves back to the grass, his best surface. He didn\'t lose any luster in my mind b/c like I said, that was an impossible trip for him, even more impossible to bet him at 8/5 in a 17-horse field. He\'s better meant for grass.
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I don\'t whine about short fields. I have s strange theory that you get in less trouble in short fields and the best horse wins far more often. I\'ve adapted to short fields from playing cal all these years. I look at a 17 horse field and lose my mind (more than usual).
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I don\'t know Dana, I guess my command of the English language isn\'t what it used to be. I read your initial post and calling him Breeder\'s Cup material was what I took as a positive view of the horse.
Now, he runs up the track and your analysis was right?
Ok. Great job!
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Not right, accurate, if you actually read what I quoted, which I guess you didn\'t. I think he certainly could be BC TURF material. Love to see him this summer or fall in a long grass race. Synthetic is not his game. If people now knock him like I guess you do, that\'s even better, so more power to ya!
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Dana,
Didn\'t the winner of this race rally wide at a mile and a quarter?
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I guess my point was that with simulcasting, there are plenty of opportunities out there. Short fields in California have been beaten to death, but there still are races out there to play. ROTW last month had a nice play, but admittedly it\'s tough to find plays consistently.
What a performance by the filly today. I sat out, just didn\'t feel confident playing any of them, so just a spectator. Always kinda cool watching a filly beat the boys. Congrats to those that backed her.
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True, but if you read between the lines very very carefully, Dana also insinuated the wide trip for the filly might be better than the wide trip for the favorite.....
You just have to use interpretive english.....
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I realize trying to explain anything in any kind of intelligent terms is a complete waste of time here; don\'t take it personally Rich and Jimbo, you both are so typical of the (almost always) snarky (always) after the race (mostly negative and nitpicking) comments on anything I ever post here, which is so typical of so many on this board, and why I basically stopped posting here. How you could ever get this many bitter, negative people together on one website is beyond my comprehension.
All I ever try to do is give someone information that may help someone at some point make a decision that benefits them. And all you guys ever do is try to find fault or twist whatever I say.
If you read my first post you\'d probably have more reasons not to play Soul than to play him. Yes that would take reading between the lines (a little bit).
You\'re correct. The filly followed Soul actually, and both were wide.
I\'ll stand by my original thought that \"Soul\" will be much better on grass.
And after watching the replay, he also moved way too soon today (for him), unlike in all his other races. I guess the jock felt he had to, and I can understand that, but he was really taken out of his best game, which is to drop back and make one huge run. He also melted down somewhat in the PP. There was a long delay once they were on the track, and I don\'t think he liked that.
The filly is pretty cool, and nothing seemed to bother her. Also her light-frame is ideal for Poly-track, I didn\'t factor that into my analysis carefully enough because I think it made a huge difference as she simply didn\'t get as tired as the heavier males who were all really laboring over that surface--I\'d say, if there are any decent contenders, she\'s very vulnerable in the second jewel of their triple crown where the race is on dirt.
I think Soul is a horse to follow and play next time on turf wherever he runs. I\'d point him to the Secretariat Stakes at Arlington, maybe something like that.
For the record, I didn\'t play the race today. 17-horse fields are not my cup of tea as they say. You can post whatever you want in reply to what I just said and I will not respond. I\'m tired of trying in any way to educate you guys when you give nothing but cheap shots back in return. You\'re not worth talking to about anything as complicated or intricate as evaluating race horses.
Peace out.
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Dana,
I rarely waste my time with this board anymore. Sekrah is one of the few people around here that will actually talk about a race beforehand, and has made some pretty impressive calls. MJellish is awesome, that is pretty obvious.
Jimbo is Jerry\'s boy, which is fine. Unfortunately, it compels him to being a smartass ad nauseum. Sarcasm is his forte. Your initial post made perfect sense; however, you didn\'t spoon feed him every last detail so asking him to read between the lines is asking for a little too much. We dealt with these clowns during the Zenyatta campaign. Nothing has changed.
Let him make his snide little comments. Its how he entertains himself.
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I also thought soul looked bad in the post parade. As far as my comments on the short fields go, I stand by them. In a race like the Queen\'s Plate, my ability to handicap matters. When you have a 5-6 horse field at Hollywood, well it just doesn\'t matter so much because the horse with the highest odds might be 6-1 with the two favorites maybe 6-5 and 8-5 for a nice exacta payoff of say $6. Hard to beat the takeout in races like that.
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Dana Wrote \"I\'d say, if there are any decent contenders, she\'s very vulnerable in the second jewel of their triple crown where the race is on dirt.\"
Thanks for pointing this put to me Dana. I ususally play the Queens plate and then forget about the rest of the series. I was thinking this horse looks like a tough one to beat the rest of the series but that was because I was thinking it was on synth/turf. I will definitely look at the next race and try to beat her as her only two losses have been on the dirt.
Thanks Again
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WO mostly plays typical poly,rewards phony wides,punishes brilliant speed,garbage!
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Dana,
Do you really think that when you write this:
\"As far as Check Your Soul my comment was right on: \'he will have to rally wide in a huge field at a mile and a quarter -- boy that\'s tough sledding on polytrack for all but a superhorse.\'\"
...that it is out of line for me to point out that the winner made a wide rally in a huge field at a mile and a quarter?
That\'s all I did, and I did it as gently as I know how.
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\"Jimbo is Jerry\'s boy\". My first interaction with Jimbo resulted in my offering to and almost having to fight (literally) a guy who turned out to be built like a 6\'6 refrigerator. Since then he has gone after me for my Euro figures, my Cal figures, and recently said I always think I\'m right, just to hit the highlights. Not exactly sure where you got that one.
Ain\'t too many on this board who haven\'t thrown a grenade my way at some point.
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Dana-- this is one of those doing-the-same-thing-over-and-over-expecting-a-different-result things. You keep on analyzing these races in non-sheet terms, and keep on telling us how great the favorite is (which the exception of Buster\'s Ready in the BES). What\'s the point? This is a Thoro-Graph site, and the idea here is that we\'re trying to BEAT the public, using a different type of analysis-- not using conventional analysis to come up with the same horse they do.
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P-Stub,
I have to tell you, just when I convince myself that there is no possible way I can beat this game, I read one of your many inane posts and it reminds that as long as there are people like you in the parimutuel pool, the game can be beat.
Thanks for providing me with that inspiration?
By any chance are you in the stock market as well?
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The TG analysis on this race was a good job, not a great job...I handicapped the handicapper and decided the filly couldn\'t lose...turned out to be right, but went vertical and didn\'t come close to the place or show horse, based upon the analysis.
No matter...my real question is how long has the Queens Plate been on poly? So many horses have swept the so-called Triple Crown in Canada that, surely, the switch from poly to dirt in the next couple of races can\'t be too significant.
I would guess the real issue is when a good one comes along in Canada, he or she can beat all the other slow plugs on any surface. I mean for Bowman\'s Causeway to finish 4th after stinking up slow fields in Gulfstream...that tells you everything.
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I would definitely say she is a horse for the course. I bet her to win and totally missed my vertical bet too. I could handicap that race twenty more times and still not come up with that second place horse. By the way, the trainer said the dirt was stinging her feet in her last dirt race. I\'ve never heard that before, but that may definitely make her a vulnerable favorite if she goes in the second leg of the triple crown.
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P-Stub.
Jimbo, you can do better than that.