Ask The Experts
General Category => Ask the Experts => Topic started by: OPM on September 25, 2003, 12:28:01 AM
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In the thread below, JB asked how a fast pace will help a horse artificially run a new top and there was no answer. I think we are all aware how a slower horse can bet faster horses who get killed in a speed duel but I don\'t know if a fast pace can cause a horse to run a new top. Any comments?
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>In the thread below, JB asked how a fast pace will help a horse artificially run a new top and there was no answer.>
I gave several answers to the question, but perhaps I still was not clear. I\'ll try one more time.
Different parts of a race can be fast or slow. If the pace is very fast early it tends to tire the front runners. That allows closers to work less hard than they normally do when they make their moves to overtake those tired horses.
Don\'t think of pace strictly as the fractions. Think of it as the amount of energy the individual horse uses before the stretch run to get and maintain position to win. If it uses an excessive amount (no matter when - it depends on style) it hurts the horse. If it gets that position in a more even paced and relaxed mode it helps it.
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It\'s still not clear. Let\'s say a given horse (named Horse) is a closer in a 6 furlong race. Let\'s say that Horse is in a race with a fast pace. The pace setter (named Pace) runs the half in :45. Horse sits 10 lengths off this fast pace. So Horse gets the half in :47. (I\'m rounding to keep the example simple). And Horse closes to win in a final time of 1:11. According to my calculation Horse ran the final quarter in :24 to do that. In the next race, the pace is a slow :46 for the half and Horse is sitting 5 lengths off that pace so that Horse runs the half in :47. Why should I expect Horse to be able to run a final quarter any faster or slower in this race than the :24 he ran in the first race? According to my calculation Horse should have used the same amount of energy to the half in both (i.e., he ran a :47, laying well off the pace in both).
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Class Handicapper--
Okay, that\'s three times. You seem to have a theory as to why it SHOULD help. But if you have any EVIDENCE that a fast pace improves the FIGURES of closers, present it please. Or, as I said, give us examples where it will happen in advance. Otherwise we are back to mystical handicapping theories like class.
What we try to do here is measure the things that can be measured. I would also point out that since you haven\'t spent a lot of time using sophisticated figures that incorprate ground loss, you are left judging by who WINS races, and how the closers fare on other figures that don\'t factor in wide trips in bunched up fields due to slow paces.
Beyond that, Jim stole my thunder with the previous post.
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In your example there would probably be little difference, but that is not what often happens in the real world. What happens in the real word \"effort\" when horses are making their moves. Sometimes it lasts for less than 2 furlongs, but if you have been going to the races for years it is easy to tell when a horse is working hard to get, improve, or maintain position and when it is not. Pace is best measured using both fractions and visual skills because pace figures alone are 10 times more difficult to be totally accurate with than final time.
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>But if you have any EVIDENCE that a fast pace improves the FIGURES of closers, present it please.<
I made my own Beyer-like speed and pace figures for years and I currently look at several sets regularly (that include the track variant used).
I spent most of my reseach time years ago looking at high levels stakes horses because I believe they are more consistent. That way I would have a better chance to isolate pace as factor in final time.
Over the years I ran into numerous examples of closers that put in lifetime top figures off a duel in front of them. Much more than I would have expectd to see were it a random occurrence. The horses invariably went back to their normal figures afterwards. You categorize that as a bounce. I categorize lot of performance moves like that as a bounce also, but not these. I was suspicious.
So I started thinking about why this could be happening. In observing the way races developed, I came to understand that closers also have periods in a race where they are either being used hard or not to get or improve position. One might call it a duel behind the leaders to catch up.
So you are right. It is a theory. But it is a theory that is consistent with observations of duels on the front end and what happens to the horses. It is also consistent with what would happen if you and I went to the track and clocked ourselves under various pace scenarios. It\'s quite logical. If I run too fast and hard in the middle of the race, it will hurt me.
>give us examples where it will happen in advance. Otherwise we are back to mystical handicapping theories like class. <
That is impossible. I can rarely predict with \"certainty\" how a race will develop. However, I do try to gain an edge where I can.
What I can do is after the fact is tell you that a specific horse (closer) had a perfect trip behind collapsing duelers and was able to improve his position mid race without any extreme effort. Therefore, the figure he earned under those optimum conditions is less likely to be duplicated. I would also say that if you made a separate variant for that race because the final time did not seem to fit in with the rest of the day, you might be adjusting that time for the impact of the pace and NOT for the track speed without even knowing it. (read that sentence again) Therefore, you would getting the right answer for the wrong reason.
What I would suggest to you is that whenever you see a very slow or very fast pace and/or extreme battles on the front end to make note of it when you actually make the figure.
In the mean time, next time a major horse that we are all familiar with earns a huge figure under ideal circumstances or a really bad one under terrible conditions, I will point out the race and horse and why I think the figure is an incorrect refelction of its prior performance beforehand.
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TGJB---
Want a real life example. Look back at the speed figure obtained by a one run closer named FESTIN when he blew by both JOLIE\'s HALO and FARMA WAY who set an insane :44 half mile in the one turn 1 1/8 Nassau County Hdcap at Belmont back in the early 90\'s. FESTIN never came close to approaching that figure before or after. I use this race from that far back because #1) it was a GR I race; #2) it was around 1 turn at Belmont which pretty much negates the ground loss factor. #3) there\'s no debate that the horse could possibly run back to that figure since his career is obviously over. In my opinion, there is no who can argue that FESTIN did not obtain that one time outstanding \"performance figure\" without the help of an overly fast pace.
Thanks,
Joe B.
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1 1/8th at Belmont has a 5f straight run without a turn (turns in general are worth roughly 1 second). Which way was the wind blowing, and how much was there?
One problem with this kind of analysis is that one alternative argument is that the horse never ran back to the big figure because he was ruined by it, and there is no way to settle that one.
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TGJB---
I agree with your alternative argument. That certainly could have been the case with FESTIN. I used him as an example since he was a 5YO and had never approached that # prior.
Thanks,
Joe B.
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>Festin<
Yes. Thank You. I was actually going to use the same exact example, but held back because I expected that no one would be convinced by that one race.
IMO, anyone that thinks Festin \"just happen to peak that day\" is in \"handicapping denial\" just as Andy Beyer was back in the 70s when he insisted in Picking Winners that pace \"never\" matters. That was too silly a statement to even bother arguing about. Festin always suffered from a style deficiency. I happened to have been there and bet him that day and you could visually see how easily he moved past a bunch of dead horses that raced on or near the lead that day. That one was obviously not a bounce performance. It was a performance that was aided by a perfect pace for a deep closer.
Festin continued to run well afterwards. However, he went back to running figures (Beyers at least) right in the same range as he had been prior to the Nassau in his next 4 starts. One of them was another winning effort in the Jockey Club Gold Cup. He did not go way off form or anything. He just never had another 44.2 and dead horses to run at.
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>1 1/8th at Belmont has a 5f straight run without a turn (turns in general are worth roughly 1 second). Which way was the wind blowing, and how much was there?<
His move into the only turn was very wide. That much I remember. I cannot recall the wind, but I have his past performances with Beyers right in front of me. He was reasonably consistent in his figures and performances both before and after that.
Since I can\'t remember what the wind was like I can\'t swear to anything. But I do know that the Beyer people were and are sharp enough to adjust a single figure that don\'t make sense even if at that time they weren\'t sharp enough to consider wind to be the reason. He won by a country block and the figure of the horse behind him (other than the duelers that died out) make sense.
I do realize one race does make a theory hold water. I am also simply suggesting that this was one very prominent example out of many years of observation that made me reach the logical conclusions I have.
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Yes Festin, ridden by Eddie D. During that time the track was dead on the inside and was playing wide. I remember it like yesterday.
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Funny how certain races become firmly cemented in one\'s mind. Based on the title, I was a bit surprised to read this thread, as I incorrectly assumed it dealt with \"unhandicappable\" horses like Najran who, on one occasion, set very fast fractions on an uncontested lead & tied the world dirt record for a mile. Or horses like Skip Away & Congaree who, as Steve Haskin recently pointed out, win races by being very close to a fast early pace & opening a clear lead, rather than trying to slow the early pace down as was done with Congaree in the Big Cap & KY Cup Classic. In Skip Away\'s case, he won 14 of 15 races where he had the lead at the quarter pole, even though his final quarter times were never all that strong. Expect a change in strategy when Congaree faces Mineshaft in the Classic.
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Mall---
Why am I getting the feeling that if MINESHAFT wins the JCGC tomorrow (which he should with little trouble), Neil Howard avoids CONGAREE and MEDAGLIA D\'ORO at Santa Anita like the plague?
Joe B.
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Joe B.---
Because you read trainer Howard\'s comments about the dangers of shipping West, & you also read the announcement re the stud fee next yr, & you\'re reading between the lines & putting 2 & 2 together? But he hasn\'t ducked anyone yet, his owners are true sportsmen, he has a great chance at HOY, etc.,etc. I\'m guessing like everyone else, but I think he\'ll run.
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Maybe. But I\'m really kicking myself for not betting Congaree in the futures.
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You guys are dead on when it comes to these Older Horses being the ones to beat. They are all just too good and fast.
The demise of Empire Maker and Funny Cide on the shelf, probably until next year, leaves this crop of three year olds as one of the worst in history. Empire Maker was probably the biggest media hype job since OFFICER.
There won\'t be a single three year old even come close to hitting the board on Breeders Cup Day.
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Silver Charm---
I agree. I wish all of the top 3yos were healthy now and running. They would all be overbet, especially FUNNY CIDE.
I also agree with TGJB. I think CONGAREE will be a handful at Santa Anita. I stopped short of playing him in the Futures thinking there was a chance Baffert would put him in the Sprint.
PS: Anyone give RISKAVERSE a chance tomorrow with her post position advantage?
Good Luck at the Windows,
Joe B.
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Do you think Congaree can give weight to Ten Most Wanted at 10f and win? I guess Patient Pat might keep TMW 4 wide throughout again and wait too long to go after Congaree but I don\'t think I would bet on it.
But now the TMW camp is even making noises about passing up the BC, which makes no sense at all given that a Classic win will probably make TMW the 3yo champ.
Still, with Candy Ride and Perfect Drift already opting out and with Mineshaft likely to skip it with a win Saturday maybe that future bet would not look too bad right now. In fact, with all the defections maybe there is another Arcangues lurking in the shadows waiting to pull another SA BC Classic shocker...
Cheers.
Chris
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Or maybe another Volponi.
Hey wait maybe Volponi is the next Volponi.
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Hadn\'t heard Mineshaft was passing. How likely is that?
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It\'s funny how so many people have a vivid memory of this race. I also remember it because I was tracking Festin most of that season and also bet him in the race, believing that his form was peaking. It was serendipitous that the pace scenario also set up for him, making it an easier win than many anticipated.
Based upon what I remember of the horse\'s season, I think that Jerry is right. This was the peak and it was downhill afterwards. He continued to run well, but not AS well.
As a breeder/owner it seems clear that these are not machines earning numbers. We have to deal with stifles, ankles, knees, hocks, you name it, from week to week. Only rare horses maintain the same form for lengthy periods because of their nagging aches.
Festin could very likely have gotten messed up or \'loosened\' up in any number of joints in that race...no serious injury, but more of an aging, wearing down kind of thing.
All in all, it\'s a far more real life explanation than assigning a tea leaf analysis to the horse\'s numbers.
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>Based upon what I remember of the horse\'s season, I think that Jerry is right. This was the peak and it was downhill afterwards. He continued to run well, but not AS well.>
He ran just as well afterwards. I still have his past performances, Beyer figures etc.... He won the JC Gold Cup afterwards earning his 2nd fastest figure of the year, but it was nowhere near as fast as the Big Pace race.
This one race doesn\'t prove anything anyway.
It\'s a difficult thing to measure and prove because there is so much subjective analysis involved in figure making and the result of any one race.
I think you have to simply look at a lot of races with extremely fast early paces and use your common sense about whether or not it benefited the closers to not have to work as hard in the late middle of the race to improve their postion as everyone collapses. If yes, did it allow them to run a bit faster?
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Beyer figures? Oy Veh Isht Mir!
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in some races, jockeys will choose to rate their horses well behind slow paces. the most obvious examples of this tactic are Santos and Samyn. some jockeys will not chose to use this tactic. this smarter group of jockeys include Bailey and Velazquez. in the aggregate, you will find that slower races do indeed produce slower times, simply because some jockeys have a game plan going in; they want to come from off the pace, regardless of how fast or slow they are running. if all jockeys had the pace instinct of Bailey, pace would not influence the final time of horse races. unfortunately, all jockeys do not have this instinct. of course, there are exceptions. i think Balto Star set a track record last month over at Mth after setting a slow pace in a turf marathon. i have been looking at this subject for a number of years now, and i am quite confident in my conclusions. i wish i had documented my findings over the years, but i think any handicapper could do the work quite easily........ funny how everybody remembers the festin race. i was in the top row at the far left side of the Belmont grandstand that day, and had a great view of festin while he swept by the field. think there was another big time closer in that race, maybe Strike the Gold? anyway, i always liked festin, and remember being quite upset when he won without my money...
as for TMW, i do think he was helped along by the ultra quick SAR strip and the fast pace on travers day, and i would be very suprised if he ever came within three or four points of his travers # while running ten furlongs without the same ideal conditions.
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Congaree, congaree but I forget to bet him in the futures, damm it. Hopefully, I will get something good a couple of days before the race, maybe 8-1.
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how does Horse know how to rate five lengths off the 45 pace, and ten lengths off the 46 pace? what if the jockey strangles the horse, and he site ten lengths off a 47 pace, which we have all seen before. does the horse still run the distance in the same time? take a look at a bunch of races and see how many times a horse runs the same fractions with varying paces. more often than not, you will find that a horse will run slower fractions in races with slower paces, and more often than not, the horse will not be able to make up the ENTIRE lost time in the final stages. again, there are plenty of exceptions, as some horse are quick enough to explode at the end and make up the difference. there are, however, plenty of grinding type horses who will not be able to make up the difference when rated too far off a slow pace.
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\"and Heat Haze is in last, STILL ON HOLD?\"...
the call from Durkin today as they hit the top of the stretch (he phrased the call as if he could not believe what Valdivia was doing). the fractions were 1:15 and 1:39 over a firm course!!. one example proves nothing, but does anybody think Heat Haze would have run the same final time if the fractions had been 1:11 and 1:35 ??? very, very doubtful. does anybody think festin would have run 1:46 whatever that day if the half had gone in :49?
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I think there are many memories of this race not just because it was such a great race - but because it was a rare spring day when the 3YOs and the handicap stars shared center stage.
That year the Nassau County was on the same card as the Belmont. It was also the first year of the ACRS, and the top older horses were starting to show up in the same gate. What I remember most about that race is how gamely Farma Way held on after helping to set that pace ... I think Gervazy took the place in the last jump or two. If memory serves I don\'t think Farma Way did all that much after that race, which also pretty much cooked Jolie\'s Halo.
Michael, Strike the Gold ran second to Hansel in the Belmont later that day.
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What kind of s@!&%$@ is the Mineshaft camp pulling if they don\'t run in the Classic? I am so sick of these so called sportsman who consistently duck competition unless everything is working in their favor i.e. competition (the weaker the better), running at their favorite track, weights, etc... This is supposed to be racing\'s championship day, and horses are ducking it left and right. Pathetic. Its too bad these gutless owners aren\'t as competitive as the wonderful animals they own. All anyone cares about is stud fees. Empire Maker retiring as a 3yo and his last race was in August? Are you kidding me? And I\'m sorry but Perfect Drift drilled Mineshaft earlier this year. I don\'t care what the supplemental fee is, this horse is 1) a top contender for the Classic, 2) hasn\'t he won enough money to cover the supplemental fee?? Is it any wonder racing is in the woeful shape that it is? Can you imagine the A\'s skipping game 1 of the ALDS because Pedro is pitching? Forgive the rant, but I\'m getting tired of dealing with this year after year.
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Can\'t disagree with anything you said. Jockey strategy surely does influence the outcome of some races. But that doesn\'t have anything to do with the example I cited or the question I asked. No doubt the final time that a closer runs is influenced by the fractions that he runs in the early stages. The question that I was addressing is \"how is a closers final time influenced by the fractions that OTHER HORSES run in the early stages\". I posed a particular example of a race pace shape to see how classichandicapper would respond. You posed a completely different one - which I will summarize as \"when the pace is slow up front, some jockeys on closers screw up\". Can\'t argue with that. I\'m sure that some of those jockeys up front are screwing up with a really fast pace as well. Can\'t argue with that either.
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thanks for the response Jim...
yes, i think we can all agree that pace does influence the final time of SOME races. if all jockeys had a clock in their head, pace would not make much difference at all. i guess the question is: to what degree do these jock decisions change the complexion of a race. on this point, i would imagine everybody has a different opinion. some of the horses in the Gr 1 turf races yesterday certainly would have run faster if the paces were faster.
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thanks BB..... yes, i was wondering why i was way out there in left field... Belmont day and i could not get a better seat. poor farma way; he set the track record in the pim special three weeks earlier, then has to come back and run that kind of pace?
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Trainer Howard wasn\'t far off the mark when he said that Ambassador Farish has put his heart & soul in this game for many yrs. It also isn\'t surprising that, to a traditionalist, a JCGP victory by a homebred might mean as much or more as a victory in the Classic. As for stud fees, Mineshaft\'s was announced prior to Sat, and winning or losing the Classic would have no impact whatsoever on the size or total amount of his fees. Where it might have an impact, however, is on Lane\'s End, perhaps the premier breeding operation in the US, & its many employees & partners. AP Indy has to be about 14 yrs old at this point, & one of the questions they are presumably dealing with is whether Mineshaft is going to be their replacement \"foundation sire.\" So to a certain extent the question involves the jobs of a great many people, & continued success at the highest level of the breeding business. Nonetheless, I continue to believe that Ambassador Farish is the kind of person who might be convinced to once again put the interests of racing ahead of his own.
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I agree, I think he will go just for horse racing although it\'s asking alot of the horse but with contenders dropping like flies it\'s probably worth the trip. With Azeri\'s loss today, this horse is definitely HOY.
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My impression is that the main reason it was unlikely that Azeri would run in the Classic was to keep the win streak alive. Now that it\'s over, it might make some sense to give the Classic a try, especially if Mineshaft doesn\'t run. It was peculiar to see her running almost faster after the race was over today. BTW, after a second one in 4 days shouldn\'t you start thinking about changing your moniker to \"PK6 King\"?
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Okay, I\'ll bite-- what were the other times he put the interests of racing above his own?
My impression is that Farish likes to be 3/5 in stakes-- he often runs in small stakes against overmatched horses, especially with colts, presumably to build them up as sires. This year\'s Preakness is the only exception that comes to mind.
Which is his business. But, sportsman?
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On many occasions, during the 10 yrs he was Chariman of the Board at Churchill Downs, as Steward & Vice Chairman of the Jockey Club, as Director & Chairman of the Executive Committee of the Breeders Cup, as a member of the Board of Directors at Keeneland, in the instrumental role he played in bringing racing to Texas, in helping the Horse Council fight legislation which would have been a disaster for the industry, in the time & financial contributions he has made to numerous horse-related charities, by introducing many newcomers to the game, in helping many in the game under circumstances where there was no expectation of profit, etc, etc. Racing\'s plague of short fields in major races the last few yrs is not his doing, and I would venture to say that was not the case for most of the 120 stakes winners he has campaigned over the last 35 yrs. The conventional wisdom nowadays is that without players there would not be any game, which is obviously true, but doesn\'t tell the whole story. Putting aside the St Kitts gang, players as a whole get back about 80 cents of every dollar they put in. For owners such as Ambassador Farish, it\'s about 50 cents for every dollar invested. Considering the economics & some of the other things high-end owners have to deal with, calling one who has given so generously of his time & money to the industry for so many yrs a \"sportsman\" doesn\'t seem out of line to me. If anything, it\'s an understatement.
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Maybe as a sportsman, he does not want to put his reputation and name on the line in situations where he does not have a reasonable expection of doing well. It is not any different than betting on some plug at 30-1 that might have the chance to pair up a number. Just like their are players that feast on short priced horses, their are some owners that like to see the flashing light on the tote board that shows that they are the odds on favourite, different strokes for different folks.
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You made some slanderous accusations regarding Frankel in your previous post-Empire Maker Toast- which I challenged and asked you for some proof to back up what you said. You never responded. Frankel has responded by winning 2 more Grade 1 stakes on 2 coasts this past weekend. Now\'s another opportunity for you to either publicly apoligize for your slander or present your proof of wrongdoing by Frankel.
Phil
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Hey I have no problem apologizing when I am wrong, so he won a couple of Grade I. I will still bet him when I think the moment is right, and bet against him when i feel he will get beat.
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I don\'t have enough insight on Farish to comment as to whether or not he is a sportsman. But I breed, buy, and race horses and would never commit the lowliest claimer to its next race until I see how it comes forward from its last.
That can take two to three weeks, depending upon the horse.
With a horse of Mineshaft\'s ability an owner shouldn\'t even consider running it unless everything is perfect in this regard. The stakes in terms of its physical well being and ultimate value are simply too high.
You\'re all watching Seabiscuit too much...Sam Riddle was a great horseman who the movie treated really badly. He probably knew what he was up against in the great match race and resisted it for good reason...it wasn\'t too long afterwards that they physically caught Tom Smith squirting ephedrine up a horse\'s nose before a race.
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No way Mineshaft should be HOY if Perfect Drift wins the Classic. He beat him head to head, and would have a classic win to go with his other victories as well.
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>No way Mineshaft should be HOY if Perfect Drift wins the Classic. He beat him head to head, and would have a classic win to go with his other victories as well.<
That will be an interesting vote. He will have a win over Mineshaft, Conagree (twice) and MOD. But you just know that some people are going to argue that the win over Mineshaft was aided by a break in the weights and what some thought was a premature move by Mineshaft. Then he had another break in the weights against Congaree in the other victory.
My guess is that a lot of people are going to insist that Mineshaft was the better horse. It should be an interesting discussion.
Personally, I think Mineshaft might have been slightly the better horse, but if Perfect Drift wins the Classic over MOD and Congaree etc... at level weights I don\'t see how he can be denied given that the rest of his dirt record is so good (now matter what the weights).