Ask The Experts
General Category => Ask the Experts => Topic started by: sighthound on April 06, 2013, 05:40:57 PM
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I\'ve never seen as many gate screwups as with the New York crew. A legend race, and a non-starter has to be declared because either the gate guy was late or the starter was early.
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Absolutely, the worst crew of any major venue.
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Slow pace, slow race, marginally faster than 3 yr old fillies,and not the fastest ones.If you look at the filly race and tie the two together,the Wood is pathetic,figuratively speaking.
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Agreed about pace and final time. Did you hear TAP after the race saying V tends to hang a bit when he strikes the front? I need to rewatch his previous races I guess but I don\'t recall this from his Gulf Alw Romp or Tampa Bay Derby score.
Also felt V had a perfect trip today.
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The V\'s were wide off the far turn but had gone so slow, it hardly mattered.
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Verrazano is the real deal. Absolutely stunning stallion prospect. His stride is so huge, he\'ll need to be clear to not be stopped in Derby. He could win the TC. Good race today, he wasn\'t used, but he had to pay attention in the stretch.
Vyjack IMO won\'t get the distance or last the TC. He should skip Derby for Preakness.
Normandy is improving at the right time and distance will be better for him. He\'s small, quick, he\'ll be able to work his way in and out of the disaster of stoppers that will be the Derby stretch.
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\"He\'s small\"
..certainly is Sight, wonder if he\'s got the physically to deal with the Derby.
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Valid concern, but I think he\'s tough enough. If Verrzano gets in a crowd he\'s done, he\'s so big-strided.
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Eyeballed him last year and this year, did not physically mature that much.Think Brown knew that and wanted only 2 preps to make sure he had a horse left by MAY.
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I think what you see is pretty much what you get. Worry now is who\'s hoof can handle CD track surface.
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Beyer of 95 for Verranzano confirms another rather common prep.Verranzano may get saved by ground but they crawled around that first turn,wide or not.Verranzano going backwards on Beyer 105, 101, 95.
And through the magic of projection voodoo the Gazelle received a Beyer of 88 notwithstanding it comes up rock solid 91.
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This really bothers me. I am not a superstar figure maker but I have the general idea with the Beyer figures.
I thought that Beyer Figures were completely based upon final time only. But recently Dick Jerardi wrote that piece about the Fairgrounds when the Mineshaft, Risen Star, and Rachel Alexandra were all run. It states their figures are not based only on final time.
I thought the whole point of being an astute observer is that I\'m aware of \"How was the Fig earned?\" Now they are using surface change and/or slow pace to adjust the Beyer Figs which I\'m not against a split variant when there is a surface change. I suggested yesterday I thought there might have been one after the fifth race. Following the last race of the day I wasn\'t so sure.
Regardless, there were only two 2 turn routes. I have the Gazelle and the Wood at .27 seconds difference. I thought this was a 2-3 point difference on the Beyer scale. I had Verrazano at a 96 plus ground loss and Close Hatches with a 93 and a 2w-1w trip mostly. The other issue I have is sometimes they tie the two turn routes to the one turn routes to determine their variant and other days they don\'t as best as I can tell.
TGJB should be screaming from the rooftops that his figs are far superior to Beyer for reasons other than calculating in ground loss, wind, weight, etc. How about just because of voodoo projection use as Miff says. I understand their is a certain creative discretion the fig maker has but Beyers\' boys are not following the tenets he previously wrote about. I know it sounds TGJB has a good working relationship with Beyer so he probably doesn\'t want to do that but....they are completely changing their method of calculating Beyer Figs and if readers of the form are unaware of when they use their \"voodoo\" it can cause incorrect judgments.
Last, Miff am I wrong about the 2-3 point difference on raw times? If I\'m reading you right, you believe they upgraded the Wood for slow pace and downgraded the Gazelle based on previously assigned figs through projection. Is this accurate?
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Isn\'t projection what TG does?
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The short version is there is no way to know how fast the track is without using back figures of the horses running over it. The long version is \"Changing Track Speeds\" in the Archives section of this site, must reading for a serious discussion of this subject (if I do say so myself).
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Fair,
Guess yes on Beyer adjustment, but no adjustment for the fast pace set by the Gazelle winner after the first split, which explains the crawl home.
Figure makers like things to fit,even sometimes when they do not. You may hear \"how likely is it that the 3yr old fillies ran just as fast/faster than 3yr old top colts\" While true most of the time, they rarely buy it and start making assumptions as to why, and then back into what \"fits\" ergo,projection voodoo.
The clock is almighty as a starting point, and assuming no changes in track speed, should be the most influential determinant in making figures, not what one thinks or has preconceived notions about.In studying the top guys for a long time, only one seems \"married\" to the clock.
Mike
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The point TGJB makes on the wind is important. Though it is only visible for a split second, the flag is stiffly in the face of the home-stretch and JFK website data shows sustained winds around 15-20MPH with higher gusts much of the day. This kind of wind would have dried the track out quickly, making it softer sand and slower as the day goes on, in addition to wreaking havoc on individual split times.
Comparing these raw split times or overall times to anything run at GP or SA under much more stable weather conditions and speed favoring tracks just seems nonsensical to me. And even if you do compare the coming home times of these 3 races, the fact that the Wood was better and they were running into such a stiff wind that entire time makes those efforts that much more impressive.
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Bit,
Goldenscents had a TG top of like 4 going in, the horse he beat, Flashback, like a TG 3.Golden was faster on Beyer ran a top fig like TG 2 going in(converted from Beyer)Only one other two turn race, Beholder at 1/16 th shorter. Goldenscents comes up huge, wide and fast. Have no idea what he will get but ran one of the fastest \"pure\" derby preps(discounting Itsmyluckyday and Verranzanos no point races earlier in the year)
TG and Beyer differ on track speed at Santa Anita. There are many strings here regarding some West Coast horses out running their TG figs when they ship.
Mike
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It also means you can\'t compare two turn routes with one turn miles where they had a strong wind at their backs for half a mile.
The other thing about high winds is they are not constant. The observer looks before and after the race (if he\'s doing his job), but a) they can be higher or lower for the time in between, b) they can gust when the horses are on the backstretch (or somewhere else), c) there\'s a building there that causes tricky air currents. If you go to Aqueduct during the winter you will sometimes see the two infield flags pointing AT each other-- wind coming from behind the grandstand sucks together, like around an airplane wing. Try creating a formula for that.
The effect of wind involves a square-- a 10 mph is 10 x 10, effect of 20 mph is 20 x 20. High winds have a huge effect on times, in speed figure terms, when you get above 20 you might as well forget times and just go by the horses, because gusts make such a difference, wind currents are nuts, and the trackman estimating wrong even slightly changes things a lot.
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Yes, there are many strings. And I have shot the s--t out of them over time, as with the Euro nonsense. People remember the ones that fit their theories. We have done an awful lot of computer analysis of this stuff.
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Watch the replay of the Carter. http://www.nyra.com/aqueduct/videos/swagger-jack---2013-carter-h/
The clock says the horses hit 6 furlongs in 1:08.79. I have their come home time in that race at 12.65. Equibase and DRF have the fraction listed at 1:09.79. But here are the fractions of the Carter and closing fractions of the four stakes races yesterday according to Equibase\'s charts. As miff points out, the Gazelle was so fast early, they crawled home and I agree with that.
From Equibase\'s Chart
22.17 44.63 1:09.79
Final Time:
1:21.44
Split Times:
(22:46) (25:16) (11:65)
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And also from Equibase but the Carter is wrong I think:
Gazelle: 14.03
Bay Shore: 12.92
Carter: 11.65
Wood: 12.55
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JB,
Unless the gods were involved, in the race immediately preceding the Wood, they roared home under 12 in comparison to Verr who crawled(for him) in 13.3, wind at his back, and got home ok 12.55
Maybe wind had something to do with it,me thinks slowwww!
Mike
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Seems like the Wood figure is often up for debate every year. Tricky track with wind. At least we have another 1 1/8th race to compare to. That being said, there is no question in my mind that the track speed changed as the day went on. And keep in mind that the \"stiff\" wind would have helped the colts on the backstretch and should have produced quicker middle fractions, no?
I would be very surprised if the Wood doesn\'t get the s_pace designation. A slow early race shape is likely to compress the overall figure because horses can\'t close their last 1/4 in 22 flat to make up for a 49 and change opening half. The fig will be what it is, but I think as we move forward you have to factor the compression of this figure in when evaluating a colt\'s overall pattern.
Off the top of my head I think the final 1/8th of the the Wood was a strong one, 12.5 or so, into the wind. And it should have been.
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\"People remember the ones that fit their theories\"
JB,
It is no \"theory\" that your scale and Beyers differ on the West Coast.There is empirical data in that regard,which does not determine which scale is more accurate,no science.
Mike
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Mike-- seriously? Comparing a) horses going 7f with those going 1 1/8th around 2 turns, b) older horses to 3yos, c) winner under 116 to 123?
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Absolutely correct, and absolutely irrelevant to this discussion, which is about whether our figures hold up. Shhhh.....
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TGJB
This all seems like a reach. The 1 1/8 is one around the track. Wind at their backs early in their face late. Why use this to explain the raw slow time.
Those internal glacial splits become even incredulously slower if they were run with the wind at their backs.
Running those splits early they sure should have come home fast.
Glad to see a bunch of people finding ways to make the slow wood better. Value for those that think slow is slow.
Meanwhile no posts about golden cents running a 105 Breyer and pulling away from a well thought of and perfect trip flashback.
This years wood has the feel of the master David wood. Still waiting for somebody to win out of that one. Although tapit has certainly become a helluva sire
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Jimbo-- nobody is relating the wind to the final time of the Wood, just to the final fraction (last eighth). But the only race you can compare the Wood to is the Gazelle, where, as I said yesterday, even dismissing the pace differentials, comes up about 3 points slower winner to winner, given time, weight, and ground.
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JB,
The point was strictly to illustrate that the wind was likely a wash, a constant for all runners.There is no way to explain Verranzano\'s ordinary overall time/performance when looking at his previous races, slow pace noted.He\'s supposed to separate from those horses from where he was and how slowly he was going early.
Mike
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Jimbo,
I agree with most of what you said. Goldencents ran a nice race. Likely to be overbet IMO considering the connections and what happened last year, plus the whole Louisville/Pitino thing.
But anyway, I wouldn\'t just discount the Wood though as a slow race. Watch the replay close. Johnny V rides Verrazano like he is the best colt from beginning to end. He breaks sharp, secures wide position out in the clear. The jock is looking back between his legs on the first turn and all the way down the backstrech, most likely to keep an eye on Vyjack. As they hit the 2nd turn, Verrazano throws in a quick burst of speed to spurt away (disagree with opinions made that this is a big striding, non-athletic colt or comparisons to likes of Union Rags), then waits, then down the stretch he kicks away along with the other top 3. They all finish strongly and are still pulling away from the field at the end. He holds them all off.
That being said, I\'m not saying I like Verrazano to win in Louisville. And I think that extra 1/8th may get him. But to me what is important to note, and something the colt should get extra credit for, is he is showing that he is althletic and can adapt to win under different circumstances. The Wood was run like a turf race, they crawled early and sprinted late. We don\'t even need the teletimer to know this. Just look at where Vyjack and NI where early in this race compared to where they usually are. Ver showed he could adapt to this race shape and still win. In the Tampa Derby, he was race ridden early and showed he could change gears in the first 1/4 mile of a race, change tactics, switch out, assume a stalking position close to a very honest pace, win the pace battle and still have enough to kick away from the field at the end. Before that we already knew he could run fast early and finish stronger than most.
This colt has gained some valuable seasoning over the past month and that is going to help him immensely. Dunno about the 1 1/4, but I am not going to give him a negative mark because of the slow overall time of the Wood. That just doesn\'t tell the whole story.
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Miff,
The top 3 do seperate from the rest of the field. How much faster is Verrazano supposed to come home than 12.5 into a headwind? Or put another way, if Vyjack and NI both come home fast as well after a slow early pace, why is that a negative to Verrazano? He still held them off.
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I did not like Verrazano\'s pull-up. I think that\'s about as far as he wants to go. Elnaawi a huge disappointment; thought he was better than that.
Good Luck,
Joe B
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Mjellish,
NI charged him finishing a close second,NI has not beaten any field except maidens. Rudy reports Vyjack bled yesterday but no excuse,he hung last 70 yards.You fail to note the difficulty Verr had getting past a hopeless slug in front of him.The top 3 towered over most in there, they ran 1,2,3, no real surprise they ran off from the rest given their position and slow 6f.
Time aside,I would have bet that Verr would have drawn off by a few lengths based on what I thought he had shown in his prior races.Verranzano has never faced adversity,in and among horses,and his halo is gone. A contender for sure, quick from the gate, smooth, athletic.More Than Ready rear it\'s head yesterday late?TAP spoke of Verr in the same breath,ability wise, to Escanderaya, why I felt he ran ordinary yesterday.
Mike
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More Than Ready hit the wall at nine furlongs.
Half Brother El Padrino same idea.
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Hey MJ,
Hope you are well
Just to be clear, I compared Revolutionary to Union Rags, not Verazzano
Maybe others made UR vs. V comparison that I missed.
No big deal either way.
Hope you are great.
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MJ
I guess that is what makes this game interesting. People can watch the same thing and yet interpret it differently.
I saw everything u said about Verrazano\'s race. But in the end, like miff, I was disappointed with the margin. I feel like I have seen that race hundreds of times in my life. The best horse, sitting off a glacial pace, stalking a dog. And IMO when the best horse gets that trip he is supposed to be dominant in the stretch. Not mediocre. When I saw the 49 half, I would have taken Verrazano minus 3 lengths and bet quite a bit.
As for golden cents. I will be shocked if he is over bet. Nobody thought he would get 1 1/8 let alone the derby distance. Unless u consider 10-1 or higher as over bet. Pitino factor irrelevant in derby sized pools.
Jim
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I think what everyone is forgetting is there was no way Verrazano was going to do more than necessary his last prep before Derby. Again, he was basically hand-ridden to finish, with two crosses and one whip smack to keep him focused. No surprise to me second-half-of-race time was pedestrian - the horse wasn\'t cranked up at top of the lane.
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Dick Jerardi explained on Steve Byk\'s (Kasept\'s) Night School Hour on Tuesday that Mark Hopkins increased the Beyer Figure by 5 points because the horses couldn\'t come home any faster and because they are trying to give the \"best version of the truth\" although noting it would be difficult for Hopkins to feel really confident about the number he assigned. He also noted that if it\'s a close call, say 69 versus 70, he (Jerardi) will always go with the higher number when assigning a fig to a race.
So, by the clock\'s final time only, Verrazano earned a 90 Beyer Figure. But Beyer\'s associates increased it to 95 for us dumb handicappers who couldn\'t figure out that pace didn\'t play a part in the final number....
On another note, has anyone confirmed if that\'s an error on the Carter for the 6 furlong time? 1:09.79 (chart time on equibase) versus 1:08.79 (video time listed on nyra)