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General Category => Ask the Experts => Topic started by: big18741 on April 10, 2013, 07:55:37 AM

Title: Two preps
Post by: big18741 on April 10, 2013, 07:55:37 AM

Last six Derby winners all with two races as a three year old.
Some trainers had to adjust this year searching for points.
Others stuck to a two race plan regardless of points.
Those left with a chance to be in the gate:

Revolutionary
Normandy Invasion
Mylute
Java\'s War
Uncaptured
Overanylyze
Maybe something else comes out of this weekend.

Some good ones with three or more preps so we\'ll see if the streak continues but it\'s something to consider.

Title: Re: Two preps
Post by: P-Dub on April 10, 2013, 11:16:00 AM

How many horses overall had only 2 starts, compared to those that didn\'t??

Title: Re: Two preps
Post by: justwin on April 10, 2013, 11:54:30 AM

Here is my quick summary:

       # of starts prior to derby
        1      2      3+
2012    1      9      10
2011    1      3      15
2010           8      12
2009           2      17
2008           6      14
2007           5      15
Total   2     35      83
%       2     29      69

Nice stat from only 29% of the starters. If I recall most of the horses were lightly raced as a 2yr old unlike MyLute.

Title: Re: Two preps
Post by: phil23 on April 10, 2013, 03:04:26 PM

If you\'re going to include Rev (last 3yo start Dec 28th), you have to include ITMLD (Jan 1st), imo. Intentionally took 2 months off after Holy Bull to give lots of time for Fla D and then Ky D, even with points position in jeopardy. He is clearly a \"quasi\" two preps horse.