Ask The Experts
General Category => Ask the Experts => Topic started by: covelj70 on April 26, 2014, 04:31:49 AM
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I was able to get out to Belmont yesterday morning and watch his breeze
Beautiful morning out there. I also got to see Testa Rossi train as well as Swift Warrior so Friday morning was just about my perfect morning
Bottom-line is that I loved what I saw from Wicked Strong and he is my play for the Derby
I was very surprised that it was just me and one other gentlemen (who I didn\'t know) that were waiting for the horse to come out of the barn and walk with him to the track. It\'s a short walk from the Jerkins barn 57 to the training track at Belmont but given all of the concerns people have about this horse being high strung, etc, I wanted to see what he was like before his breeze. Now, its beyond apples and oranges to compare Belmont on a quiet Friday morning with 2 of us following along to what he will face next Sat but I will say that if I didn\'t know the horse had a reputation for being high strung, I wouldn\'t have thought twice about it as nothing he did before, during or after his breeze suggested the slightest hint of this horse acting like a knucklehead
It\'s clear the barn takes meticulous steps to make things as easy as possible on the horse mentally including the fact that they have a stable pony walk to and from the track with him. The stable pony is just about the calmest horse I have ever seen and you can tell his disposition positively effects Wicked Strong. The stable pony came out of the barn about 2 minutes before Wicked and stood perfectly still while the rider laid on his belly with his feet flat out and hands at the side like Superman. This is relevant to nothing other than I thought it was cool but the main point is this horse has clearly been a very calming influence on WS because WS didn\'t show the slightest hint of anxiousness or anxiety at any point to or from the track.
In terms of the breeze itself, everyone can see from the video how well this horse moves. He\'s a great moving horse who is clearly feeling happy and healthy. He\'s carrying good weight. He\'s a tall horse, medium build. Looks just like Hard Spun to me but I\'m not an expert on such things. I watched the breeze along with the assistant trainer who is terrific guy. Easy to root for these folks. Needless to say, they were extremely happy with the way the horse breezed. One note on breezes for people who are newer to the game that is valuable here. You often here that the time of the breeze doesn\'t tell the whole story. This is a good example of that for several reasons. First, the breeze started at the half mile pole before the turn for home and the breeze didn\'t end at the finish line, instead, the horse continued to breeze past the wire and finished 3/8ths past the wire around the turn. So one might want to compare the final 3/8ths of one of the breezes later this am at Churchill to the 37.55 final 3/8ths from WS yesterday and say \"not so good\" but since WS\'s final 3/8ths were around a turn, the times aren\'t comparable (not to mention the differences in track surfaces, etc).
The other important factor in the breeze for me was his ability to relax early and finish strong. Not just from a stamina perspective because we already know the horse has that but horses that have been knocked out by a previous effort or who aren\'t feeling good physically will often go fast early and then slow down late. Sort of the equivalent of \"wanting to get it over with\". This horse was the exact opposite. Very relaxed early, very powerful late. Watching the way this horse finishes the final 3/8ths around the turn and then gallops out another 1/8th tells you this is a true route horse. Watch his two 1 1/8 races. This horse doesn\'t even start running until the 1/8th pole.
The final question for me was seeing how hard he was breathing after the breeze so I rushed back to the barn to meet the horse (they come off the training track to head back to the barn from a different chute than they come onto to track so I couldn\'t walk back along with him). This horse couldn\'t have blown out a match and he was ready to do alot more than what he did was my main takeaway on that front. I had a chance to chat briefly with the rider that breezed him and all impressions are that this horse is doing as well as he\'s ever done
I posted some pictures on twitter (@covelj) for anyone who wants to see the horse heading to the track before the breeze or coming back after
Sorry I wasn\'t able to post this yesterday. I rushed to work right from Belmont and then I coached my sons baseball game right after work (barn burner ended in a 7-7 tie for those keeping score at home). Then took kids to dinner, came home, watched the hockey games and collapsed!
There are a million things that could go wrong for Wicked Strong pre race or during the race but I think this horse is by far the most likely winner.
He\'s the fastest horse in the race on the only speed figures I care about, he\'s one of the two best breed horses for the distance, I confirmed for myself yesterday that he\'s coming into the race in absolutely great shape and his running style seems to fit the race shape of this years derby very well
Any of these horses are liable to have a tough time dealing with the crowd so that\'s a concern for all of them, WS included, and I wish he had a jock that had won the race before but Rajiv rode MMM fine a few years ago in this race and he handled the pressure of big races well with Groupie Doll so I am ok there
I will be very surprised if he doesn\'t hit the board and that\'s how I will be playing the race. Very heavy with him on top and then keying him in the tri and super.
Good luck to all, will be a great week as always.
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Perhaps another Pleasant Colony in a year where Wildcat Red and General A Rod remind me of Proud Appeal and Cure The Blues.
Good Luck,
Joe B
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Thanks Jim. How did your horses work SW and TR?
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jbelfior Wrote:
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> Perhaps another Pleasant Colony in a year where
> Wildcat Red and General A Rod remind me of Proud
> Appeal and Cure The Blues.
>
> Good Luck,
> Joe B
I only wish \"Cure the Blues\" was running in Chicago on sunday....
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As always super post. I don\'t you from Adam but just reading your posts you seem like a complete gentleman and a really cool guy. Nice to hear the horse came out of the Wood in good order. Thank you.
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Jim:
Really appreciate the observations, and that you took time from a busy schedule
to post them. A little disappointed you couldn\'t get over to Aq to watch Saamraat
work, but I understand.
As you mention this fella has the reputation of being a bit of a head case and
his demeanor at CD leading up to the race and race day will be important to his
chances.
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Thanks you for the report. Was kinda hoping to hear something that suggested he was a bounce candidate, but so much for that.
Did you get to see Uncle Sigh? He apparently put in a 5/8th work that went out 7f in about the same time as Wicked Strong.
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WS actually worked a mile in like 1.40 with 7f going 1.27, lots of 13\'s for eighths, trainer happy with work.The Chief would work horses like that also, definitely looks the stayer, a bit short on brilliance though.
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mr C: I just want to express my appreciation for your your willingness to share your personal observations with members of the Board and your infectious spirit and and \"derby fever\" which I have had symptoms of myself since\'72. The TG Board is by far the best place to be in the weeks leading up to the Derby and your posta are a big part of that.
My future wagers on CC have made me biased towards him aided by watching Espinoza choking down on him the last 1/16th in his last two open length wins. Doesn\'t appear to be one who can\'t get another 1/8th (his breeder says he won\'t have a problem but I guess that\'s to be expected. I am not sure that the CW is correct that there will be a fast pace. The likely speed WR and VIT have to back it down to have any chance to win. A slower fiest 1/4 will bunch them up and create traffic for the deep closers. That\'s why this is such a great race year after year, you never know for sure how things will play out. Also, why do you think a bounce is not in the cards off that big top? Enough of my rambling.
Good luck with all your plays , may they all come home safely.
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This is really important detailed perspective. Twitter is a disaster over today\'s works so far, with half people saying all the works were MEH, B, B+ works at best and there is no sign of the \"blow me away\" work we have seen in year\'s past. And then other folks talking up Candy Boy and calling it \"work of the morning\". Hard to know who to believe.
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All,
Thanks for all of the nice comments
lousiville, I really appreciate those kind words. Means alot.
Shannahan, SW and TR just galloped yesterday. They will breeze this weekend. SW had his big breeze last weekend in preparation for the Ft. Marcy. He should run very well. He\'s doing great. This is the race we were pointing for all winter and John Terranova has done an awesome job having him primed for this.
richie, thanks for being you!
Aj, I don\'t really believe in bounces and when a horse looks and acts and breezes like WS did yesterday (best part of breeze was last 3/8ths), I really don\'t worry about some made up bounce theories. He may not win for a bunch of reasons but its not going to be because of a bounce. Look at the Oaks probable TGs if you bought then and look at Room Service. She\'s not running in Oaks but look at her figs before she got to run 1 1/8 in the GP stake and then what she ran in that race. Huge jump up. She supposed to bounce in the Ashland based on that big jump, right? Nope, instead she moved forward big time again in the Ashland. I knew we were in trouble with Testa Rossi in the paddock of the Ashland because Room Service looked absolutely incredible. You can typically tell from a physical inspection if a horse is going backwards. Room Service looked the exact opposite in the Ashland and Wicked Strong looked that way yesterday.
No one impressed too much at CD this am. Tomorrow another big round of works down there.
Good luck
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I dont know what is so made up about bounce theories. I will admit it is an inexact science. But so is horse racing. I will tell you that being a former race horse owner myself I put alot less stock in appearance. I dont doubt for a minute that WS looked great when you saw him and worked wonderfully. I will also tell you that in the KD 80 to 90 of the horses will work great and with a high energy level. That is why out of tens of thousands of three year old thoroughbreds only 20 run in the Derby. Derby horses tend to look great.
I can tell you plenty of Derby mistakes I have made based on a horses appearance or how they work prior to the derby. I thought storm treasure may have been the best horse I have ever seen. Just perfect looks and size. Laid an egg on the first may saturday.
I was four feet from M. Matz who was sitting on a horse with leather chaps when a horse was working toward the finish line. Effortless smooth brilliant looking runner. I asked \"who the hell was that?\". Matz told me it was \"union rags\". I did not recognize him because i cant even begin to tell you the unbelieveable difference between seeing a horse on Tv and seeing it live. I bet with both hands. Rags lost in the Derby easily.
even Earlier on some of my larger exactas I took out Invisible ink and replaced him with the gourgeous Congaree. Mistake. Wife didnt talk to me for awhile after that one.
Is Wicked Strong a nice looking colt? Certainly. But if you knew nothing of the race records and Candy boy, Dance with Fate, and Wicked Strong were led into a sales ring I guarantee both of those horses would bring back more than WS. And so would others.
On the bounce angle I dont know of a horse that worked harder in their race than WS. Ridden hard and fully extended and not a particulary straight stretch run. I completely acknowledge I could be wrong here but a matching top is the best you can root for here in my opinion and I dont think it is likely. If he does match he is in there but I just dont like it. Also throw in his perfect ground saving trip and u could argue a very weak wood field. (Saamraat a toss for me). I just cant see playing this obvious second choice at 5 or 6-1.
As for the breeding I was never a big fan of Hard Spun. To say this is the second best bred horse in this field is reaching. Hard Spun had a mildly successful triple crown series because he was like the lone speed each time. I thought there would be more speed in the derby but Larry was the only one smart enough to tell them to go for the lead and it appeared he would steal it until trounced by Street Sense. If only he had followed this strategy in the Belmont. It was somewhat of an off track that year as well in the Derby.
I do like the jock and trainer.
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My tongue is bleeding...
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Thanks Jim,
I agree that if his last effort took too much out of him, we\'d see it in weight loss or some such. So your visual take means a lot.
There is a pattern similarity with Room Service for sure. But there are jump ups and then there are jump ups. Wicked Strong\'s was twice what Room Service improved, and was even greater than both of her forward moves combined. If he doesn\'t react to that, he might be something special. Would love to have reason to toss him, as the likely 2nd choice - so on that score your report makes things tougher.
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The one thing I worry about WS is his trainer and being able to ship and win a race like the KY Derby. I know his father was legendary, but stats are stats and Jimmy\'s stats in this area leave something to be desired. I def see Wicked Strong running a bang up race and possibly being right there in the final furlong but win the race?? I am not so sure.... But def think he would be a very popular winner of the roses and if he does win would def be pulling for him in the next too races to be our 12th Triple Crown winner.
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Pizza,
I\'m not trying to convince anyone of anything. I had alot of people send me texts and emails asking me to post my thoughts so I did.
No one should include or exclude the horse on their tickets because of my views. I have missed on plenty of derby calls.
3 quick points on your post though.
1. If a horse slow on tgs breezed great ( ie candy boy), I could care less how good breeze looked but if the horse that is fastest on tgs breezes great, that means something to me. Most time people loose money betting on workouts it\'s because the horse isn\'t fast
2. On the pedigree, it\'s the bottom side of the pedigree that sets this horse apart, not the sire. I posted his catalog page earlier this week. That\'s where the stamina is coming from.
3. Wicked strong sold for 375k as a yearling so think you comments about what the horse would sell for based on looks vs the others is way off.
Good luck
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Jim,
Never had the pleasure to meet you, but always appreciate and look forward to your posts and insights. If we, as players, can gain an edge anywhere in this game we should take advantage of it.
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Cov,
1. Lots of horses with slow figs and a young age suddenly jump to a new high. Like WS. If your going to rely on the fastest horses who look good working then good luck with your CC-WS exacta box. Not earth shattering info but info none the less.
2. I never said the dam side was bad breeding. It is good. Actually Hard Spun has also done alright as a sire. Just not my fave. Always felt he was overrated. But as you know this is the most inexact science of all.
3. $375K as a yearling. Something tells me he probably looks a little different now. I am sure 2 years ago he may have been the best looker in this bunch. He isnt now. Still a good purchase considering.
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Pizza,
Not sure if you bought the tg probables but Cali Chrome isn\'t close to the fastest horse in the race and, in my opinion, has no shot of getting the distance so if he\'s 1st or 2nd, I will lose all my bets next weekend
He\'s most likely to run second bc that would screw me every way
I would lose my futures bet from jan in Vegas and I will lose all my bets next weeked
When I bet him back in January, he was running big figures compared to the others. I assumed he would move forward as a spring three year old.
The fact that he didn\'t is one of the reasons I think he does have distance limitations. Like many of the others, they are pairing as the distances get longer. Everyone can read sheets and patterns differently and that\'s fine but I want to see horses moving forward on the tgs as the distances get longer.
That\'s how I differentiate between a true route horse and a great horse who is running good numbers as the distances get longer
There is a reason 5 out of the last 7 derby winners had big jumps in their last prep race. CC doesn\'t fit that mold.
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And now I bit it completely off.
One of the really interesting thing about this Derby is different people using the same data are coming up with completely different opinions.
And that\'s even aside from different figure makers having very different data this year, as I\'ve pointed out before.
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Apologies, meant to say 5 out of 8, I was already counting WS in the number....lol
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JB,
Of course
That\'s one of the many things that makes the game great
There\'s nothing wrong with different interpretations on the same data
We do that every day in the stock market.
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TGJB Wrote:
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> And now I bit it completely off.
Thanks for the Sons Of Anarchy flashback.
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Pretty sure I don\'t want to know, and as sure not what I meant.
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I mentioned in my comments about WS breeze that what I liked was that he went off easy and came home strong. Sign of a relaxed, happy horse
See Welsh comments below from DRF about how medal count went out faster than he came home.
Medal Count (six furlongs in 1:13.25): The Blue Grass runner-up was a bit keen to begin leaving the five-furlong pole but settled into a comfortable stride by the time he entered the turn. Medal Count covered his opening three-eighths in 36.24 and was not pressed to get to the wire in 1:00.41 before continuing on willingly when roused some around the clubhouse bend. He completed his final eighth in a solid 12.64 to the seven-furlong pole before galloping out seven-eighths under mild urging in 1:26.87. Although Medal Count’s best races have come on turf and Polytrack, he worked well on several occasions over the main track this winter at Gulfstream Park but unlike the last three of those works, when he washed out noticeably, and final two during which he swapped leads well before the wire, he did not get hot and switched leads on cue this morning. Seems to be thriving now despite having kept a very busy schedule of late.
This is the kind of thing i am on the lookout for to see if a horse is recovered from his/her last race. Whether its a pair of a big number, a 1 pt top, a 3 point top or a 7 pt top.
I don\'t like medal count anyway for this race because I believe he\'s a turf and a poly horse and the spacing of these races is terrible. This is the kind of breeze that suggests its all catching up to him. I was very vocal on the board about how much I liked him for the Transylvania and the blue grass but I don\'t like him at all for this race
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I have mentioned this before-- about the only thing Michael Dickinson and I ever agreed about was that when horses run really big races, they often come out of the race looking great. After the next one (when they often run poorly) they often come out looking tired.
Recently it has turned out there\'s something else Michael and I agree about, he\'s fighting the good fight on drugs too.
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Jim I agree with your logic on horses running faster as the distance gets longer as a way to evaluate a \"true distance horse\" but I am positive you will be very disappointed if you think California Chrome will not hit the board for a few reasons.
A) four horses have ran back to back beyers of 105 going into derby since 2003. Smarty-winner big brown-winner empire maker-second. California chrome. Those horses faired pretty well
B) it\'s kind of hard to gauge California\'s true speed figure/thoro # and if he is truly improving when he is getting physically restrained before the race is over.His last to races have been cupcakes. We don\'t know his true potential. He is closing sub 13 while being restraint.
Let\'s not forget his bad break in last race and the way he responded.
C) most importantly California has the tactical speed to get the ideal trip to match his top figures. Trips similar to Brown, Barbaro, Smarty , pletchers horse who won a few years ago. I always think people are crazy to use horses without much tactical speed as their key horse when there are so many issues that could happen in the derby when you have to pass 10 horses.
Whether he wins or not there is no doubt California chrome is the key horse atb and hope a bomb beats him.
Just another mans opinion. Good luck
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I dont even know what to think about Medal Count. Nice horse with some ability but his race spacing scares the crap out of me.
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Again, that\'s what makes the game great
People can have legitimate differences of opinion.
There have been enough horses that have jumped up in race before the Derby and then have run well in Derby that its obviously not something that can be approached with a \"one size fits all\" framework
Every horse and every situation is different
There are too many variables that can impact the analysis for anyone to apply the same framework to every horse
Just one example. Does anyone know which horses had legal vet work done before the last race which might have made them more comfortable and allowed them to run better?
I certainly don\'t know But maybe one of the horses that jumped up 7 points had legit vet work done to fix something that was bugging him and that\'s why he improved. He\'s less likely to react to the number.
No one knows these things about every horse and so to say any horse that jumped up a certain amount is going to react is simply pretending to know something that is unknowable. We can say \"it\'s all about percentages\" but its not because the horses that jumped up could have all jumped up for different reasons. Vet work, a track or distance that suited them better, change in running style, blinkers, no blinkers, etc
To apply the same framework to all horses that jump up when all the jump ups could be for different reasons is not a good idea.
That\'s why evaluating the horse in person is, in my opinion, significantly more valuable than numbers of a piece of paper
The numbers tell me which horses are fast. That is incredibly valuable and why i love the tgs. The rest is meaningless to me.
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Thanks for the thought 007
I don\'t think beyer figures are worth the paper they are printed on
TG had all of those horses very very fast
TG has a very differentiated view on CC speed figures and when it comes to the absolute numbers, in JB I trust
Others on the board will say thats crazy and that\'s fine, totally fine to disagree. That\'s why we all get to put up our own money
Thanks again for thoughts and good luck
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When it comes to Medal Count, I think any one of forteen horses could hit the board in this race and looking at Romans record in the Derby he thinks this horse is without a doubt his best shot at a Derby to date, and I think that is saying something cause other then his first starter ever in the Derby (Sharp Humor) his record is solid being right there in the final furlong. I def would not dismiss this horse, and would take him over DWF any day at CD. That\'s just my opinion and I know it means nothing lol but it\'s what makes this game great!!
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I have always thought beyer numbers are really strong when you use them for fillies that are age 3 on the grass. Don\'t have stats to back it up but seemed like when I used them back in the day before I found bris and tg, that they were really solid in those situations other than that they are without a doubt the last numbers I would look at before I went to the windows.
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As you say there are lots in here with a shot to hit the board, and you can\'t play them all. I will let Medal Count beat me. Can\'t put money on a horse that, in two dirt tries at two tracks, struggled to get within 10 lengths of the winner.
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He broke his maiden impressively on the dirt. No LASIK in CA and yes his race at GP wasn\'t good but it\'s not like he finished last lol but it\'s just an opinion throw out Romans at CD at your own risk, I just know he isn\'t the worse horse in the race and I would have to use him.
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I think that you read my post and focused solely on BEYER speed figure and nothing else.
Thorograph numbers are hands down the absolute best tool in every day handicapping.
The Kentucky derby is a different animal and to disregard other figures is a major mistake. Tgjb always mentions in his derby seminar who is the most likely to pair up there top number in the 20 horse field and that is the absolute most important factor in figuring out the derby winner. The easiest way to pair up a number is to get a similar trip and that is highly unlikely for horses that may have to go 4-8 wide and go extra distance etc. Chrome may not be running negatives on the thorograph but he is very likely to get an ideal trip.
You also mentioned his numbers aren\'t the fastest which is fine but what is your explanation on his poor break and being pulled up before finish line. Do you not factor that into your handicapping? It 100% effects all figures including thoro/beyer. Correct me if I\'m wrong
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WS trainer James Jerkens,5 for 10 at AQU last few weeks
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Some confusion regarding the distance of todays work for Medal Count.
Romans and some clockers had him working 5f\'s with a gallop out of 6f\'s in 113 then 7 in 126
Welsh and Equibase had the work at 6f\'s with a gallop out to 7f\'s
At 5f\'s his fastest 1/8th was the last one.
All of my tickets will have either Medal Count or Wicked Strong on top.
Honest to fast pace helps both,distance helps both.
I give a slight edge to Medal Count for homecourt where he trained much of his two year old year season.
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Saying hard spun had a mildly successful campaign is silly. (Picking a less combative word)
Won grade 1 races going long on dirt, long on poly, sprinting on dirt and showed heart and courage in doing so. His game kings bishop race was special. Would have been the derby winner were it not for a great ride by Calvin and multiple jockeys giving up position such that the Red Sea parted for street sense.
He was a very very good horse.
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Yeah, been keeping an eye on that myself. Which raises multiple questions, cause even if you believe the worst, not clear what it means for the Derby. Would love to know exactly what \"Out Of Competition Testing\" was done, where, and when.
And if test results were published, we would...
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NY is a long way from KY and the Derby. Once again if WS wins the Derby I have no problems with that but Jimmy shipping outside of NY and winning Graded Stakes is a concern for me is all I am saying. But I would think the horse has to be coming at the end, the question is will his run come to late?
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Seriously? Didn\'t WS ship from Florida to NY to win the Wood?What relevance does the trainer of a horse have to do with shipping?
WS vanning to CD as is Uncle Sigh to try to avoid hydration problems some trainers feel is possible with air shipping.
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JImbo,
I said mildly successful triple crown series. Dont worry about the less hostile words just read it correctly. Yeah he was a very good horse. Most derby starters are. Big news. He almost stole the derby when nothing went with him and allowed him to almost steal it on an off track. In the belmont that was a very slow pace if they had turned him loose immediately I beleive he would have stole that one. Had hard spun encountered the speed that I am hoping this derby will have he would have collapsed.
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Shipping 11%
Graded Stakes 8%
Once again sure the horse will run good and can possibly win the race but at second choice no thanks for me betting him to win. I will use him in the gimmicks though. Just an opinion nothing more.
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miff Wrote:
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> Seriously? Didn\'t WS ship from Florida to NY to
> win the Wood?What relevance does the trainer of a
> horse have to do with shipping?
>
> WS vanning to CD as is Uncle Sigh to try to avoid
> hydration problems some trainers feel is possible
> with air shipping.
Shipping to NY from FL is shipping that\'s called coming home! Big difference shipping from NY (home)to somewhere. I posted the stats so if I am wrong I am wrong, I would have no problems hoping WS wins the triple crown if he does win the Derby.
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Unfiltered stats make nice wallpaper.My point is that certain horses are problems when they ship anywhere,other horses ok with anything.
FWIW,WS is a bit of a head case, that\'s the barns only concern, otherwise ready,will work a half at CD.
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Alright Pizza.
I won\'t worry about less hostile words and I read your incorrect post right the first time (and again just now).
Hard Spun hardly got easy leads in all the Triple Crown races. It was the fastest or 2nd fastest Preakness pace of all time. perhaps you don\'t understand what \"easy lead\" or \"soft pace\" is.
of the problems that Wicked Strong might have, his looks and his breeding aren\'t two of them. He looks fine and is well bred to get the distance.
Whether he is a grinder or a horse with acceleration that can make a strong move on the turn is one problem.
The other is how to read the series of races he has run since last November.
Glass half full - he hated Gulfstream and caught a race or two there were dynamics and bias held him back.
Glass half empty - He is an Aqueduct \"horse for the course\". And Gulfstream wasn\'t the problem.
Not sure that 2nd choice is being well compensated enough to take the \"half full\" view, at least for me.
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Jimbo-- Those are the only two ways to look at that horse?
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TGJB,
No, of course not.
he could be coming into form at the right time.
But i am bothered by the horse\'s two good runs coming at Aqu. Would like to have seen another good race somewhere else.
Horses with \"one good three year old race\" are very tough to gauge (for me, but also for anybody). Because 3 year olds can \"get good\" suddenly, but they could also be aberrational races. Wicked Strong is sort of an example of that. Danza is a much better example of that. His run in the Arkansas Derby was wicked good, can\'t argue that. Aberration? or first chance to route and this will be his new \"norm\".
Tough calls.
But as I said, if Wicked strong is a clear 2nd choice, that makes that call easier for me.
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Jimbo - think your point about the betting is well made. About a week ago I had CC maybe 5/2 (or even a tick less) and WS at 9\'s. Think that\'s out the window. I\'ve got it 3 and 6 now and honestly wouldn\'t be surprised if WS were even lower.
For what it\'s worth, and it may not be worth much because this is the craziest public race of the year odds wise, set to the correct CD takeout, I\'ve got it:
CC 3
WS 6
HOP 10
D 12
VIC 13 (rosie)
SAM 15
IH 15 (very positive on track reviews)
ROC 17 (and heck maybe lower due to you know who and the Billy Gowan hometown pr)
CBOY 18
....and the rest.
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Alright Jimbo,
You still havent read this correctly. I didnt say WS looks were a problem nor did I say his breeding was. I just said he is easily not the best looking in this race and I dont believe he has the second best breeding. Never said it was a problem.
Plus I referred to the Derby and Belmont for Hard Spun. Outside of Curlin and street sense in the Derby this was a very weak crop. He died in the preakness.
But if you want a made up Jimbo argument I would say you were wrong about giacomo being 3-1 in the Derby. You were also wrong about Secretariat begin a filly. And only colts can go on to become stallions not fillies. That is what u said in ur post.
Lets forget the nonsense. Waste of time.
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I wonder if we could possibly see CC at 9-5 and WS at 5-1? If that were to happen you would see some huge prices. I am crossing my fingers.
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Yes, I am done with this argument.
Anybody that calls that 3 year old group a \"weak crop\", doesn\'t understand the game.
Better off arguing with the guy who sells me coffee at Dunkin Donuts about horses..
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Jimbo
This is a grade one winner, admittedly with a nice set up. Writing that he hated GP may not tell an accurate story.
After the Remsen, which established Wicked Strong ( the name sent to the Jockey Club \"Boston Strong\" was taken) as a top shelf colt. The ultra conservative \"JJ\" elects the toughest spot on the planet (Holy Bull) and this one comes back with an eight inch cut, requiring stitches, and predictably does not run a jump.
A solid half ensues two weeks later, followed by an \" I am the man\" five eights, six days before drawing way outside. Taking a right at the break, and, as you note, \" no chance\". Nevertheless he runs very well and works some seventeen furlongs and inhales the Wood field.
By any measure this colt figures. bbb
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Reading that 2007 was a poor crop makes my eyes bleed.
Opinions aside, an aggregate 8 efforts of 0 or better were run during the triple crown races that year, which is far and away better than any other year on TG record as far as I know.
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Yeah, this is a bad place to make unsupported statements, and a bad time of year to do it. So far I\'ve let Miff alone on \"people don\'t ship bad, horses do\".
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Bell
Agree he has to be considered. The wood makes him a player. That and the Remsen. The other gulf races were not good, albeit with excuses.
Here is the problem for me. He is econd choice. With one good race this year and a good Remsen.
California chrome has been perfect in all his races this year and has a solid foundation last year as well.
The price difference between favorite and second choice isn\'t enough for me to get over the fact thst he has had only one good run this year.
If he was 12-1. Sure. Not at 6-1 or so.
Although once u go beyond CC there are nothing but flawed horses. Danza? One good run. Hoppertunity\'s series of races this year are much closer to a classic profile of preps. Sort of a real quiet type prep in the SA derby.
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Jim, Thanks for relating your observations concerning seeing Wicked Strong yesterday. I think your observations, and assessment, are spot on.
I think the horse has been a work in progress his entire short, 6 race career. In every one of his races last year, I thought the horse ran greenly. In his Remsen race, between his drifting (reacting to the whip) and switching back to his wrong lead in the middle of the stretch, before the rider got the horse to correct it, I thought it cost the horse the race --- despite all the problems, the horse still made up several lengths in the final 3/8th of a mile, that was run in a pretty credible 35.36.
In his Wood, he still did a bit of drifting during the early portion of the stretch, and his subsequent head turn, was almost comical. Once straightened out, and changing to his proper lead, he draws off to win pretty impressively, and in a respectable time.
So, just how good is the horse, if he run a race without any of the \"counter-active stuff\" mentioned above? I don\'t know. I don\'t have the answer, but to me, it could be scary good.
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Roger that Jimbo yet \"chrome \" is being dealt a bad hand. Performance aside his connections are out to lunch.
Paddock, gate, track, etc. is not an easy task, so why compress these necessaries into a very tight window.
Arrive Monday, possible at best, track Tuesday, Wed. gate, Thurs paddock this is not 1955 Churchill Downs. Weather, track condition etc.
Understand this one looks a likely favorite who will run first (12%)or nowhere. The General, strong, possibly the baffert, sadler... who else?
Not likely. bbb
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My problem with Hopper is that the figure that makes him a player was on a wet fast track. That makes him a big ? in this field - though he appears to have taken well to the track.
This is a deep, deep crop. At the risk of defending pizza, there are nine probable starters that have run at least a 0. NINE! That\'s the same number as 2007 and 2013 combined.
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As of 911pm PCT Apr 26
Offshore odds - taking a $1000 wager.
These guys usually are not giving money away.
CC 2.85 to 1
WS 12.2 to 1
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Care to list them all?
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Miff, if trainers don\'t ship bad, horse do why does every major handicapping including TG have the trainers shipping percent listed as a stat for gamblers to look at?
Just wondering what your theory on that may be?
11% shipping 8% graded stakes. I know it\'s wallpaper to you but to me it a red flag to be careful using this horse on top come Derby day.
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Lou,
I\'ll make it simple. The name of the trainer shipping a horse for this race is irrelevant.How a horse mentally/physically ships, his overall ability vs the competition affects the win % greatly. Stats don\'t tell you about a sharp trainer shipping to easy spots where his horses will dominate.Its about sharp placement, not shipping.TG puts a lot of little factoids as part of being the most comprehensive product for those who place value in it.
Derby is unique, for example TAP is a \"prolific\" ship trainer generally but is 1-38 shipping in for derbies. What trainer is a \"derby\" shipper? Answer none, therefore the trainers shipping % is irrelevant in this race.
Mike
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JB,
You can\'t be serious. Sell that elsewhere, anyone with a clue know a it\'s all about placement of the horse being shipped, trainer irrelevant.Sharp trainers ship to ez spots and won\'t ship a horse who just won\'t perform out of his comfort zone.Ship win % without a filter makes nice wallpaper.
Mike
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Wow! That is shocking to me. I really felt (and hoped) the odds would be much lower.
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Tho they don\'t give away free money, in my experience, off shores also don\'t have a clue when it comes to derby. They\'re just opening it up and booking it based on bets (imagine that, what a concept), not based on their opinion or any special foreknowledge.
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Thanks for making it simple for me. I have a hard time understanding these complicated things in horse racing. Things such as stats that are legit when your handicapping and stats that are there but really do not count those things are hard for me to separate. Geez!!
But if you think I am going to just ignore stats from the past in a game that is based on past stats your crazy. The stats are there for a reason and what that stat shows is Jimmy Jerkins is not a strong trainer shipping from the friendly confines of his NY home, simple a that. Not to mention his graded stakes percentage is awful. That is all...
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From my personal point of view (besides \"getting an ugly girl to marry you\")if you didn\'t have him at 9-1 in a distance challenged field at Aqueduct, why get on his 7-1 bandwagon in a stronger field?
Good Luck,
Joe B.
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Joe,
Like the logic. But need a clarification.
how about if you \"had him at 9-1 in the Wood\", but \"lost him\" when Dad\'s Caps, a horse you had bet in his previous 4 races and watched him spit up the lead late, actually holds on and ruins all your pick-4 tickets.
Can you then use him as a \"saver\" in the Derby....
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I hear you Jim. Caps put Strapping Groom away for fun. Go figure. Crazy game.
No confidence in Jerkens(felt the same way about the old man) away from NY.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
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Uh, Mike-- after saying trainers don\'t matter, in the next breath, you said some choose to van, not fly, because it avoids dehydration. That\'s a choice. And I\'m sure it\'s not the only one.
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miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> JB,
>
> You can\'t be serious. Sell that elsewhere, anyone
> with a clue know a it\'s all about placement of the
> horse being shipped, trainer irrelevant.Sharp
> trainers ship to ez spots and won\'t ship a horse
> who just won\'t perform out of his comfort
> zone.Ship win % without a filter makes nice
> wallpaper.
>
> Mike
Miff, how can the trainer be irrelevant when he\'s the one responsible for the placement? It isn\'t just the mechanics of the shipping you\'re evaluating, it\'s his/her judgment. I agree that it\'s a limited stand alone stat, and particularly limited for the Derby, where there\'s no shopping around for the \"best spot,\" as those Pletcher numbers support (though there are other factors contributing to those numbers, as well). However, in day-to-day handicapping, they can give you a little bit more evidence on who are the sharp guys in moving horses around. As to your point about using a filter, I absolutely agree, but isn\'t that true about most of the stats we look at?
-
I am leaning to excluding WS from the Horizontal Derby Herd.
Isn\'t WS what some would call a \"one number\" horse? All of the attention on
this colt is based on his Wood win/big new top. None of his other 5 lifetime
races would give him a chance to be in the top 12 in this Derby field. Hard
for me to take this one as a second favorite.
WS 10/63/63/11/7/neg 1/??
IH 82/63/63/62/62/neg 02/2
Kapeech? yes its two individual runners trained by different individuals, but
would not be surprised if WS retreated a couple of TG points in the Derby,
much the way that IH regressed after his big forward move in the Risen Star.
Yes the Wood # was big. Yes WS seems to have come out of the race well. No
there is nothing on WS TG sheet that gives me any confidence in WS as the
second fave, nothing that makes me feel he repeats the Wood performance.
We Miss Artie update: Worked so sharply this AM TAP considering trying to
talk Ramsey out of running WMA in the Derby. Good luck with that!
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Richie
A good point and a common theme with several contenders this year.
But as Jim covello would say \"slow roll alert\".....
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JB,
More than anyone, you know this race is probably the mother of all mothers.Whether WS runs well or poorly will have nothing to do with JJ\'s win % with shippers.
Mike
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Moose,
I was referring specifically to the Derby as it is inferred that JJ\'s ship win % will be a factor in how the horse performs in a 20 horse field, carrying more weight than ever and travelling further than ever.
Mike
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miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Moose,
>
>
> I was referring specifically to the Derby as it is
> inferred that JJ\'s ship win % will be a factor in
> how the horse performs in a 20 horse field,
> carrying more weight than ever and travelling
> further than ever.
>
> Mike
Thanks. Obviously wasn\'t clear to me, originally.
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Again, using statistics showing a trainer\'s shipping strike rate only
partially useful at the Derby.
In most cases, when Jimmy Jerkens ships, he is putting a horse in a van,
sending them to Parx or Monmouth, racing them, putting them back on a van,
and returning to Belmont. We are saying that JJ is 11% under this scenario
and lets make Rocky happy and point out that the odds of all runners in the
sample should be examined.
Sending a horse to another track for in this case 5 days and getting him
acclimated, schooling him, keeping him focused for what will be a very
demanding race, thats different than what used to show up as \"Ship/Race
Return\" on the invoices from the horse van companies.
The trainer who ships around the country for stakes more frequently and
successfully than any other is the same man man who is what? 1/40 in the
Derby?
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miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Moose,
>
>
> I was referring specifically to the Derby as it is
> inferred that JJ\'s ship win % will be a factor in
> how the horse performs in a 20 horse field,
> carrying more weight than ever and travelling
> further than ever.
>
> Mike
Miff, EXACTLY if the dude ships at a 11% rate for reg races/stakes the KY Derby is the biggest race of any trainers career that plays a bigger role based on that stat in my view. The Derby is the monster of all monsters here this guy can\'t win shipping for races and now he will become a genius shipping to the derby? All your doing is digging a bigger hole for yourself. I am sure your a very intelligent guy and prob a really nice guy as well but your simply wrong on this subject it does matter what the trainers stats are when it comes to shipping. Look at how many people are thinking what a mistake it is that Sherman isn\'t shipping CC to CD early and working him. Why? Because it matters...
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Lou,
You are trying to toss WS not based on his proven ability/figs/odd vs probabilty of winning,but solely in favor of the trainers ship win %.
Welcome to the pools.
Mike
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miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Lou,
>
> You are trying to toss WS not based on his proven
> ability/figs/odd vs probabilty of winning,but
> solely in favor of the trainers ship win %.
>
> Welcome to the pools.
>
> Mike
I have many reasons to toss him for the win the trainer is just icing on the cake, thanks for the welcome wagon but I been a part of the pools longer then you think. You have to get the derby down to 4 horses or less on the win end to really score unless you love to invest way to money trying to chase the gimmicks. Or you absolutely love a horse. My thinking is based solely on odds/stats and ability nothing more. Second choice in the pools, stats LIKE trainer stats as well as the horses numbers/stats and also ability. You really think the first thing I look at is trainer stats when I look at contenders in any race, lol.... Wow give a guy on a TG forum board a little more credit then that!
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Lou,
My bad, thought your toss was solely based on JJ\'s ship/win %.
Mike
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Mr. C.
I\'ll be playing several tickets which include Wicked Strong.
Since he appears to be a head case, I foresee myself holding my breath until he gets loaded in the gate.
The one shipper of JJ that I recall was Elusive Quality in the \'09 Classic at Santa Anita.
I was in the walking ring watching the horse do a slow meltdown, and by the time they got ready to load the horse refused and after several minutes was scratched.
On Saturday WS faces a much larger crowd and a much longer viewing period than EQ did at the Breeders Cup. (Same dilemma for all 20 horses).
If the horse starts to meltdown and becomes hard to load, I give him zero chance to run well.
I\'m playing 75% he melts down, and 25% he doesn\'t. Not a very strong endorsement, and thus, a smaller key wager on him is the smart move on my part.
Good luck to all.
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Small,
Quality Road was with Pletcher and had been for a while by that point but I get your big picture point
Alot of people are making a very big deal out of the horse being a head case
I didn\'t see any of that on friday but obviously a different scene next weekend
Gonna be interesting.
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That was a son of Elusive Quality, Quality Road. Not Elusive Quality.
No horse is 75% to melt down. And if they were, you would need way longer odds than you will get on Wicked Strong, to even consider a horse that you truly believe is 75% to melt down. Hmm... If he is 10% to win the race, if he runs under normal conditions, and is only 25% to \"not melt\", that gives him 2.5% to win. You would need 40-1 to make the bet.......
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Jimbo,
Thanks for the thoughts but if I were to respond as I\'d like, it would require me to make my second trip to church today and do yet another confession.
I\'m staying with MY opinion the horse is 75% likely to meltdown. I\'ll already have my tickets punched for the race and be home minus the insanity of the local simulcast facility.
WS is only 1 of 6 horses that I look to be the winner. I\'ll keep those 6 to myself so I don\'t have to defend my reasoning.
Good luck with your 3/1 shot.
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I am actually spending my entire bankroll today. Because I think it is 75 percent the Aztecs were right about the world ending, but just got the math wrong and the world ends Tuesday, prior to the derby.
It is MY opinion, and I am staying with it. No facts will stand in my way.
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See that\'s the beautiful thing Jimbo. I\'m still spending the money I made on your favorite Derby horse, Giacomo, so I get to waste my money on any personal opinion I have. Feel free to take some of my Derby money in the pools.
What is your plan B if Chrome somehow draws the 1 whole? Does it change anything in your wager, or is he just be that much better than this group? That\'s not a smart ass question, I\'m just curious if you think he towers over the field like a Big Brown. Obviously, I have CC as one of the horses that can win, so my pain will be pretty mild if CC does win.
I\'ve never headed into a Derby with the numerous things that can and most likely will happen before they cross the finish line without having a Plan B.
Would I like WS or any of the other 5 horses I think could win if any of them draw the one hole? Of course not.
I look forward to your response cause them I\'m done sparring with you.
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Small timer
I have no issue with wicked strong as \"one of the ones\". I agree with u that he is a contender. Was sparring with u over the silly exaggeration of him being 75 percent to \"lose it\" prior to the race. No horse is ever 75 percent to do that. It is a crazy exaggeration.
This a tough betting race for me. I like to look at the oaks derby double, the oaks/wood ford reserve / derby pick 3. And of course the pick 4 ending in the derby. And I hate betting favorites in any race, let alone the derby. That said, u have an oaks horse that is as fast as all the derby horses and lays over the field off her fairgrounds numbers, then u have wise Dan in the wood ford reserve. And s solid favorite in my mind in California chrome. How do play that sequence. I can\'t play chalk/chalk/chalk pick 3. A stupid bet. U have to pick a horse to attack.
My plan right now is to probably attack the oaks filly and hope that either the big races knocked her out or that she is just better st fairgrounds. Will use a couple horses there against her, stand with wise dan in the wood ford and then press California chrome, using savers on a few in the derby. Maybe wicked strong, Hoppertunity and maybe commanding curve as a bomb.
Good luck.
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Richie - been thinking the exact same thing as far as the read on WS. A slight two point regression (no blow up due to trainer\'s on fire and hating gulf) just like IH off his big one. They\'re even coming from basically the same jump up point.
The real question for me is Intense Holiday. What the hell is this horse going to run?
On the one hand, his THORO pattern is bloody awful. Per the 2012 seminar, and updated for the last 2 years, a horse coming in on a TOP and then a (OFF or X) race is 0% / 15% / 36% / 49%. Which is even worse than the normal bad patterns for derby. Especially as JB said in 2012, for new tops.
BUT...does IH really need to run a new top? If he get\'s a decent trip, probably not. So 15% to pair. Combine that with the fact that by all accounts he might be the ONLY horse at CD right now who looks like he is going over the surface/acclimating well and maybe he\'s got a shot at it.
Also...he will have had 5 weeks (not 4 or 3) since his last one and 10 weeks since the big one.
If this was a normal race in NY for a May 3yo, I think, given that TAP\'s usually run their #\'s he\'d be massively likely to pair his top. But it\'s not, it\'s the Derby WITH Testing...neither a TAP forte.
His action down the Fair Grounds stretch last time (the \"bi\" where he basically threw himself into the rail) is a huge negative too, and of course he wasn\'t very fast at 2 so less of a base to support his big one.
Is price the decider? Right now you can get 20\'s on him generally. Derby Day he\'ll probably (does seem like he\'s the most likely workout steam horse....though in such a public pool how much that will be a factor is up in the air) be more like 13\'s.
I mean if he\'s really 15% then 13\'s is a good bet. But adding in the \"bi\" and I think he\'s probably closer to just 10% to pair. So 13\'s would still be an overlay but only just.
For me, this horse is the toughest read of the bunch. Easy to see the big jump ups going back, or the good paired tops patterns pairing again but this guy...???
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richiebee Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I am leaning to excluding WS from the Horizontal
> Derby Herd.
>
> Isn\'t WS what some would call a \"one number\"
> horse? All of the attention on
> this colt is based on his Wood win/big new top.
> None of his other 5 lifetime
> races would give him a chance to be in the top 12
> in this Derby field. Hard
> for me to take this one as a second favorite.
>
> WS 10/63/63/11/7/neg 1/??
> IH 82/63/63/62/62/neg 02/2
>
> Kapeech? yes its two individual runners trained by
> different individuals, but
> would not be surprised if WS retreated a couple of
> TG points in the Derby,
> much the way that IH regressed after his big
> forward move in the Risen Star.
>
> Yes the Wood # was big. Yes WS seems to have come
> out of the race well. No
> there is nothing on WS TG sheet that gives me any
> confidence in WS as the
> second fave, nothing that makes me feel he repeats
> the Wood performance.
>
> We Miss Artie update: Worked so sharply this AM
> TAP considering trying to
> talk Ramsey out of running WMA in the Derby. Good
> luck with that!
Do you give any credence to the various reasons why he didn\'t run better previously?? I believe JC mentioned this. Or, does the big jump up make that point moot? The pattern, regardless of why he ran poorly, screams regression.
And, is it possible he regresses a bit and still wins??
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P-Dub:
I think the \"bounce and still win\" question is more applicable to the Oaks
favorite.
Part of my point with WS is that he has no other # close to his Wood #, which
makes it difficult to think about how far he could regress.
I will throw out something I do not know if it has been discussed: Most of the
high profile attrition on this years Derby trail/Prep tour has been in the
Florida bracket: Cairo, Constitution, Honor Code and talented fringe players
Top Billing and Tonalist have all fallen by the wayside.
GAR was not sharp in his most recent work.
Why so much attrition in this one bracket?
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Jimbo,
Sounds like a plan. Good luck.
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CALIFORNIA CHROME
+285
HOPPERTUNITY
+1017
WICKED STRONG
+1217
DANZA
+1017
RIDE ON CURLIN
+1418
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This is the sharpest book in the world. First book up with nearly every event - so they are the original line maker.
After over a week of betting they have WS as the 4th betting choice. Which means very few of their sharp bettors like WS.
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Cris is one of the sharpest in the world...for Sports. Not racing. And they were by no means the first up with derby odds. Just because they have sharp players for sports doesn\'t mean they know a thing about Derby.
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The British books have it somewhat different. If you go to Oddschecker.com you can see a list of what the various outfits are offering on the various horses.
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I look there often. Notice the size of wager they accept. The largest is 200 pound. The offshores that I deal with mostly are dealing with U.S. sports and U.S. bettors. Most of their clients are New York based. Which make the odds on WS even more curious.
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Who else was up last Thursday? And they were taking $1000 wager from the first wager.
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Wicked Strong sustained a hind-end gash, probably in the starting gate, and Castellano had to dis-mount, but nothing absolutely certain where, and when it occurred. They only saw it after the race. It could help to explain his no-show performance.
I think the way he has shown some dramatic florishes, albeit with some greenness thrown in, it would not surprise me in the least, if he exceeds any number he\'s already put in, including the Wood race.
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Back to the shipping trainer thing, CC just boarded a flight from Cali to CD. Friend who saw him was not certain if he was wearing a pressure suit or a smock cover.Vicious weather around KY and more than one horse who got roughed up on an air flight performed poorly in the race.
One Derby horse that flew from NY reportedly wore a pressure suit.Gotta wonder if it all means anything.
....info overload and minutia time.
Mike
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I hear that. Overload and minutiae time indeed.
All this work for something that only takes a couple of minutes. What does that remind me of...
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\"What does that remind me of...\"
Good one. If a few of the fast ones X on Sat, it could be another year for a slug.....ugh!
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Mike Welsch @DRFWelsch 30m
Wicked Strong looked very distracted galloping this a.m. especially in both passes coming to the finish line, also got a little hot.
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WS\'s behavioral antics precede him.Would not let that change my mind about him. His demeanor on Sat,another story.
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TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I hear that. Overload and minutiae time indeed.
>
> All this work for something that only takes a
> couple of minutes. What does that remind me of...
How did I miss that first time through? Board gridlock. Nicely played. Reminded me of a line from the first episode of \"House of Cards\" when one of the women said that JFK never lasted more than three minutes, the reason being that powerful people don\'t have the luxury of foreplay.
\"That\'s the way it\'s gotta be during Derby Week, too, dear.\"
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Looked pretty good today. Very wide on the first turn but had a lot left turning for home.
These two battling it out in the Travers should be special.