Ask The Experts
General Category => Ask the Experts => Topic started by: joemama on April 20, 2015, 09:17:57 AM
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Derby Distance #s DRF BRIS This topic made me think of this.
Any opinions on the relevance of the whole dosage theory invented by Dr. Romans. There\'s a 12 page tutorial on his chef-de-race website which I couldn\'t get through without having a headache. He has some numbers divided into 5 categories. B, I , C, S, P. Then through some manipulation of these 5 categories he comes up with two other numbers called Dosage Index and Center of Distribution. Very confusing but supposedly a system of determining a horses propensity for being a sprinter type of horse as well as a distance type of runner. I always thought the higher the total of all the numbers would equate to a horse being able to run further as long as he had some numbers in the S and P categories. It seems looking at these numbers for this years derby contenders not many have numbers in these last 2 categories.. I don\'t know , does anyone find this info useful.All comments welcome and I won\'t take any of them personal. The tutorial is here: http://www.chef-de-race.com/tutorial/tutorial_title.htm
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Horse/Dosage
American Pharo 4.33
Bolo 2.00
Carpe Diem 1.83
Danzig Moon 3.44
Dortmund 2.38
El Kabeir 3.57
Far Right 1.50
Firing Line 3.00
Frammento 3.50
Frosted 2.75
International S 4.09
Itsaknockout 1.29
Keen Ice 2.73
Madefromlucky 3.21
Materiality 2.33
Mr. Z 3.00
Mubtaahij 1.00
Ocho Ocho Ocho 2.11
One Lucky Dane 3.40
Stanford 3.36
Tencendur 3.00
Upstart 3.00
War Story 2.73
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So if I understand this correctly, Ocho is supposed to have a better chance to get 1 1/4 than the ones with higher numbers?
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AP and International Star both over 4.00 Dosage, just another reason to toss. As an old timer going back to the dosage years, should be interesting to see how these 2 run.
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Dosage may be somewhat predictive of how far breeding indicates but not how fast they will get there.
AP a toss on Dosage, last year Cali Chrome had 3.26
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Thunder Gulch at 4.00
Real Quiet at 5.33
Charismatic at 5.72 in the 90\'s.
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These were Orb\'s number:DP 11-12-15-0-2, DI 3.21, CD 0.75. The total of the 5 categories is 40 which is a very high number. I just don\'t know how to interpret this stuff. When Count fleet won in 1943 his dosage numbers were DP 0-2-1-1-0, DI 1.67, CD 0.25.
Orb 11-12-15-0-2, DI 3.21, CD 0.75
Count Fleet 0-2-1-1-0, DI 1.67, CD 0.25
These numbers differ greatly. I\'m thinking the lower the DI and CD the better.
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And the dosage numbers can change after the fact once they decide to rate a sire as it did for Stike The Gold. So now he qualifies when he didn\'t before the race
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Among other issues with Dosage. Like eliminating any effect on pedigree females might have, and just using selected names among the sire, and assigning them subjective values.
As I once said on Post Time, most of us would agree that our mothers had something to do with how we turned out. For better or worse.
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Ahh, the goal posts can be moved.
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I hear Pletcher\'s horses outrun their dosage at GP. :)