Ask The Experts
General Category => Ask the Experts => Topic started by: sekrah on April 26, 2015, 05:11:31 PM
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Bolo.
Really not terribly different than Firing Line. Just 1 point slower at the key points of development, and eligible to move forward enough to get a piece. Lots of stamina influence in the breeding and we know turf-bred horses will enjoy Churchill clay on the right day.
Of the horses that\'ll be going off at 50-1 and up, he\'s the most interesting one to me. I think he\'s a must use on a 3rd tier in the verticals, maybe even 2nd tier.
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Love the pattern at the odds. Hate the running style for this race. I will use him a little, but for a horse who appears need to be clear, he\'s in the wrong spot - will be getting a beer at the concession stand turning for home. Smith jumps on Far Right. Can\'t help but feel he\'s a sucker bet.
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I think he can be taken back. I thought Smith rushed him up after the first turn of the SA Derby, when he felt the pace was a little too dawdling. We\'ll see. I think he can juice the verticals if we get the hot pace. Trakus did have Bolo running 43 feet further than Dortmund.
Far Right does nothing for me.
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Smith doesn\'t like his action on dirt. Owners want to run trainer does not.
With all of the stamina in his pedigree, he doesn\'t look like a colt who wants a 1 1/4 --at least not right now. Wide trip with a turf horse who may hesitate changing leads. But you could do worse among those that will be > 40-1.
Good Luck,
Joe B
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AK type of work? I think so. It does not get easier.
The best explosion when asked of any work thus far.
http://www.hrtv.com/videos/workout-bolo-42415/?VideoCategoryId=0
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Pretty impressive to have poor action for dirt, and still have possibly run 43 feet further than Dortmund.
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Looking solely at the sheets from last years derby. Seems to me the top finishers all had some slight variation of the following pattern.
1. Final two year old race a top or a pair next out from top.
2. First three year old race approximately their last 2 y/o race
3. Second three year old race a new top
4. Next Race A Continuation Either a) an improvement or pair in the derby or b) an intervening pair then improvement or pair in derby.
A. CC TOP || Pair Top Pair Top Had a third race (idling) before new derby top
B.CC TOP || Pair Top Top
C. Danza TOP || Pair* Top Pair * not technically a pair short horse off long l/o
D WS Pair || X Pair Top 2 This one threw in a bounce 1st 3 y/o then too big of a jump up slight derby regression but good #
E. Samraat Top || Top Pair Pair Pair Pretty much same #\'s as A Cal Chrome
Then the patterns begin to disperse. With the frontrunners (Wildcat Red, Vicar\'s In Charge) unable to so bringing up the rear. General A Rod had the right pattern and if memory serves trouble? @ CD.
I believe most call this a forging line. Ideally no regressions (some latitude for excuses) avoiding peaks and valleys is best. Last 2 y/o race s/b best of 2 y/o campaign. No 3 y/o hiccups.
I don\'t believe this is a sleeper pattern. But it did work in 2014.
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Thanks for the link. I saw it very differently. I see the jock of the workmate looking back a couple times wondering where Bolo is. Then the jock has him under a pretty good hold while Bolo is being urged on to get by. A decent work but not wow.
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Agreed
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I saw the same thing, the other horse was under a pretty tight hold. If you follow the gallop out, Bolo was repassed by the workmate and shut down pretty quick. A decent work, but not a sole reason to bet Bolo.
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After 59.3, he was clocked galloping out in :12. Not exactly dawdling.
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They do not look like it but these colts are working fast. Bolo - 59.6 for the 5f - in the gallop out 112 for 6f and 126.2 for 7f.
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Jeff Siegel\'s take:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a36IIdBNQp4
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Jeff states that \"he picks it up reasonably well\". I disagree he blows by a work mate that is going fast. He is behind by 2.5 lengths to ahead by 3 lengths on the wire. I hand timed it and from the time he was first asked it took 15.02 seconds to change 5.5 lengths.
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After some digging I found that the workmate was Rosicky. 3 yo colt who debuted on April 5th at 6 1/2 furlongs. 4w closing, missed by a neck. http://www.equibase.com/premium/chartEmb.cfm?track=SA&raceDate=04/05/2015&cy=USA .. Not sure what kind of fig he would have gotten but I\'m just guessing in the 7-10 range. Jerry?
He\'s entered to run back this Thursday at 1 1/16. http://www.equibase.com/static/entry/SA043015USA-EQB.html . Worth watching I guess.
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Thanks for the work.
Trevor - \"Rosicky like a rocket late!\"