Ask The Experts
General Category => Ask the Experts => Topic started by: Leamas57 on May 16, 2015, 05:47:46 PM
-
In the last few weeks of capping, I have performed some post mortems (too many, frankly) to see what I missed, why I lost. On several occasions, a lightly raced horse jumped up and beat me or broke up my vertical bets. When I looked closer, I discovered it was the most expensive horse in the race.
Rule: never completely toss the most expensive horse in the race if it\'s lightly raced. Guess who was the most expensive horse in the Preakness? The reason I accept the rule is somewhat based on science: the market recognizes potential in constitution and breeding, etc., so as with the efficient market theory in finance, the money or price is one early assessment.
Leamas
-
Leamas57 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> In the last few weeks of capping, I have performed
> some post mortems (too many, frankly) to see what
> I missed, why I lost. On several occasions, a
> lightly raced horse jumped up and beat me or broke
> up my vertical bets. When I looked closer, I
> discovered it was the most expensive horse in the
> race.
>
> Rule: never completely toss the most expensive
> horse in the race if it\'s lightly raced. Guess who
> was the most expensive horse in the Preakness? The
> reason I accept the rule is somewhat based on
> science: the market recognizes potential in
> constitution and breeding, etc., so as with the
> efficient market theory in finance, the money or
> price is one early assessment.
>
> Leamas
Mud = Chaos.
That may be another reason long shots hit the board.
-
Getting a dream trip on the rail for most of the race didn\'t hurt either.
-
Verve was entered to pick up the pieces. No shot to win of course. He figured to be alone at back of pack and get a dream trip. His late pace figs were best in field. Mud moved him up as well.
-
metroj Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Getting a dream trip on the rail for most of the
> race didn\'t hurt either.
Horses with speed make their dream trips.
-
Truth is, it was a great ride by Rosario. Borelesque.
-
Leamas57 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Truth is, it was a great ride by Rosario.
> Borelesque.
Yep, great ride by Castellano as well.