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Messages - ajkreider

Pages: [1] 2 3 ... 71
1
Ask the Experts / Re: 2025 Breeders' Cup Pre-Entries - Now Available
« on: October 28, 2025, 08:38:23 PM »
Hello.  Did you all take down the special?  I don\'t see it there.  Does this mean the regular sheets will be up tomorrow?

AJ

2
Ask the Experts / Re: When the Bad Streaks Start How Do You Handle Them
« on: September 25, 2025, 04:43:32 PM »
If I knew when a bad streak was starting, there wouldn\'t be an issue. But the bad streaks aren\'t bad streaks until I\'m knee deep already.

3
Ask the Experts / Re: Are Jockeys The Most Underpaid Athletes in All of Sports
« on: August 07, 2025, 06:15:20 PM »
It\'s hockey players by a mile

4
Ask the Experts / Re: Sovereignty Plans
« on: June 08, 2025, 02:37:12 PM »
They may get the same fig, but that 23.6 last quarter by the winner isn\'t in Journalism\'s quiver. Someone posted that it was the 2nd fastest 10F at Saratoga in the last 30 years (Arrogate).  In other years, both Journalism and maybe Baeza would be TC winners.

If Sovereignty wins the Travers, and then sits out the year, he\'s HOY.  One head to head loss can be overcome - not two

5
Ask the Experts / Re: Derby and Oaks days
« on: May 12, 2025, 05:16:09 PM »
It\'s such a unique race. Add the slop and the figs are pretty much useless for future handicapping.  There\'s just no way all those horses ran that badly with that race spacing at this point in their lives.

6
Ask the Experts / Re: The Two Week Comeback
« on: May 07, 2025, 08:23:57 PM »
Yet, in today\'s world, if you retire undefeated, it\'s a supposed sign of greatness, even if never raced in open company (Justify). Secretariat lost to some mids. So did Seattle Slew.

American Pharoah was a great horse, but I\'ll take Cigar all day.

7
Ask the Experts / Re: Thorograph Congrats
« on: May 04, 2025, 08:58:37 PM »
Got the rail on the first turn, but 5/6 wide coming home. It wasn\'t Final Gambit\'s trip, but it wasn\'t a Borail special either.

FWIW, I think by the clock it was the fastest wet-track Derby ever.

8
Ask the Experts / Re: Journalism
« on: April 30, 2025, 07:31:51 PM »
The jock getting him stuck in a five horse field should have his fans worried. If Point Given could get defeated by traffic, so can this horse.

9
Ask the Experts / Re: If Neoequos Sneaks into the Derby
« on: April 23, 2025, 06:39:38 PM »
I could see him getting a piece.  But he couldn\'t hold his spot in either the FOY or FD, and we\'re going longer now.

10
Ask the Experts / Luxor Cafe
« on: April 09, 2025, 08:26:52 PM »
I\'ve tried to bet by a principle once articulated by a DRF writer - the first invader to win the Derby will win at my expense. But I will be tempted to break that this year with this colt.  

Looking forward to the probables figs, but this one checks some boxes. Won twice at 9F. Beat the Dubai 1 and 3 finishers one back. An American Pharoah out of More than Ready mare - breeding is good enough.

But mostly think he has the style to win. This year\'s edition of the Derby is chock full of runners that will come from well off the pace. This one won\'t lead them around but will be in the 2nd flight.  Had a huge burst while wide all the way in the race that got him in here.  Maybe needs clear air, but a wider draw puts him in the right spot. Will be a price.  

Interested in thoughts of others, of course.

11
Ask the Experts / Re: East Avenue and the Bluegrass... That was NOT the path projected! ...Ashland
« on: April 09, 2025, 04:04:24 PM »
Yeah.  They were all slow except the maidens, oddly.  

Burnham Square home in 13.08 into the wind, which is fine. Equibase has him 42 feet farther than East Avenue. The winner\'s the only one of these with a shot to hit the board in May.

12
Ask the Experts / Re: What if they gave a Santa Anita Derby and Nobody Entered?
« on: April 05, 2025, 08:02:47 PM »
Grande will get a very big ground loaded number.

13
Ask the Experts / Re: Redboarding On Sandman
« on: March 31, 2025, 05:46:11 PM »
One thing I thought interesting is that the jock on Speed King was willing to let JV have the lead - but the horse wouldn\'t let him (about :30 mark). JV may have figured (correctly) that they would try to rate, and then he\'d have control of the race. Speed King had other ideas.

14
Ask the Experts / Re: Redboarding On Sandman
« on: March 30, 2025, 07:54:40 PM »
I think -2 is not common for Derby starters. Last year, Fierceness\' -3 was the only fig better than a 1, and there were only 5 horses that had better than a 3 going in.

The only recent really exceptional years I can remember are the Chrome and American Pharoah years where it seemed like half the field had a zero or better.

15
Ask the Experts / Re: Redboarding On Sandman
« on: March 30, 2025, 02:15:32 PM »
It\'s def a solid crop, and that\'s not even including a couple of very talented injured horses.

Gonna guess Sandman gets better than a 2. We actually have some good comps, since the winners of the filly races at GP and Oaklawn faced each other in the Honey Bee. And Maraket Road faced Coal Battle.

Tappan Street was only marginally slower than White Abarrio, given similar weight and more ground loss.  Let\'s say WA gets a 0, which is average for him and fits with a regression from Power Squeeze. So, 1 something for TS.

Sandman gets even better, given the above mentioned comps.  Thinking a 0.

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