Ask The Experts

I think there is no riding challenge greater than being on a closer breaking from the 1 hole. Those who have displayed the skill consistently over the years have been the seasoned masters of the craft of riding. Not a knock on Joel\'s youth, He is a great rider, but it was a tall task he had before him. The greats drop back, stay patient then decide, up the rail or outside......and then they fire and let the cards fall. If they get there great, if not, they gave the horse his best chance. JR, a 1/4 into this race was already trying to wedge this horse off the rail, and as we know, with half the race still to run, he put him in not just a bad spot, but a terrible spot.

Agree with JB, in the end the horse didn\'t fire. But at the half he sure looked like he was firing until hitting a LA Thunderbird jam..

Mr. High Roller,
The devil is in the details. First off it wont surprise me one bit that there was a pretty significant regression in the race. Something just didn\'t seem right with that race at the end. I hope RA isn\'t hurt but there is little doubt in my mind that she backed up considerably and that MTB paired or backed up a bit...MTB will get a better figure given trip and weight..Anyway as i wrote on my blog (and i use Thorograph almost exclusively in my analysis) i thought the greater bounce candidates were the pace attenders in the derby like Pioneer and Papa as that was one tiring track on the front end Derby day and there was little doubt that they had layed their bodies on the line that day...they all \"bounced\" per se.

In my view dirt front runners are more susceptible to the bounce theory as opposed to closers. That is what has made RA so special in my view. She has been able to string together massive efforts on the front end, albeit with less pressure than she saw yesterday. She bounced big yesterday no doubt but is (was) so much the best horse in the country that she could afford to back up 5 lengths and win. Jerry may prove me completely wrong but i think she is 4-5 points off her top. That is surely a bounce. What is very scary for me is that many of the triple crown candidates of recent, RQ, SJ, WE, FC all ran improving races in their Baltimore outings. RA will now likely have a pattern very similar to BB last year (i could be wrong again on her PRK figure) and as i wrote last year, he likely wont hit the board. She needs to be wrapped up now. Assumusen likely knows this as well. If the figure comes out a 1 or so....everyone on this board will be praying they dont run her in 3 weeks. 5 massive 3yo efforts...its time to eat some grass in upstate New York.   -keith-

I think the bluegrass can be a meaningful prep race and should not be discounted simply because it is the bluegrass, run on poly, and is only three weeks away. It is certainly fun to dissect the numbers and interpret patterns but unless you are inside the head of the trainer you have no idea if the race is being used to further condition/educate the animal or if it is an all out effort which is indicative of the horse\'s truest ability. Street Sense was an excellent example of this. Carl had gotten all he wanted out of SS in the Tampa Bay Derby and just wanted to make sure SS was rated, relaxed and making on run at the end. As long as he did just that, finish 5th or 1st, he would be happy.

It will be interesting to see the numbers from Kee (and OP as well). While there seems to be only a few that, as noted by other posters, could get down to that -2 etc.. number needed on the first saturday in May, there are certainly some nice 2yo foundations going into this weekend. GQ had a nice one as does the Ron Mc horse and Terrain as well (in the BG). In order for any of these to contend it would be nice to see some new tops by a couple of points (in MASSONE\'s case) or a pairing (in GQ\'s case). Terrain looks to have a bit too much to do at this stage.

The numbers and patern were nice enough with GQ but it was the appearence at the track that sold me...especially in the post parade. Hold me back looked awesome as well...just notes...