Ask The Experts

It is amazing the frenzy the triple crown creates. I love it! I love the derby trail as well but nothing beats this. In my opinion, we are all over thinking this. As a sheet player, this is the single greatest betting opportunity of all. Let\'s put it in prospective. We have a horse that is likely to be 3-5 at post who is coming off a huge negative number in the derby with a visually impressive win in the Preakness despite a 2 point regression. Hello! That is why we get this information, is it not? That is what we are all here for, to have that competitive advantage in the betting pool, no? These opportunities come around few and far between. Now, if you are disputing the TG number, that is a different story all together. It is classic, 4 races in 8 weeks, a huge negative number,a slight regression, a new track, a marathon distance, a 3 yr old, The only place to go is backwards! This horse won\'t even hit the board let alone win the race. I think we want a TC so bad it is clouding our vision of what I believe is a home run. I will toss AP out of the number completely. I wish everyone the best of luck! Don\'t drink the cool-aide!

Do you think he will be 2-1? With a triple crown at stake?

Thanks Coronado, I needed that one to get out for the day.

Thanks for your input Frank, this is very helpful. I was leaning toward this thought process myself, I did not know about the 42 days race span for the 0-2-x. I did however wonder how the trip in the derby impacted the possibility of it not being a true pattern.

Now I just have to decide whether this horse can handle the crowd. Thanks again. good luck.

I first want to thank everyone for all the great thoughts and information on this years triple crown run. After just missing a lifetime score in the Derby, I tossed angry money at the Preakness trying to beat CC again. (When I thought he would jog). To my surprise, he had to pop the clutch and go into 5th gear to get the W. So... now that the sting of the loss is gone, I will share my thoughts and questions I have yet to answer, about how I take on this historic race from a betting perspective.

It sounds like CC could not be doing ANY better going into this race (put on weight, training like a beast, love the track, yadda yadda yadda). All signs point toward this horse being in the lead at the 1/8 pole with history on the line. It is going to take a horse that is fully cranked and whose grand pappy loves the distance to get the W. While I would LOVE to toss CC out with the $$ implications of him folding, I can\'t imagine this horse tanking out of 2nd or 3rd. So that would leave me trying to beat him for the win, horizontals, or possible the exacta? If I am going to get crazy.

For me, I would love to see SI signed on here (even though I am reading on the board that it seems unlikely). Not because I would have a single dollar on him, but because I would feel good about CC having to work a little in the first 1/2 of the race. Also with Samraat putting some pressure on CC from his flank, that might step my wagers up against CC in this race.

So whose going to be my birdstone? Wicked strong is hardly going to be a birdstone do to the fact that many like this horses chances in here. I am mixed about his chances. If I am a sheet player, and I am, he is on a classic 0-2-x. A horse that made a big jump up in a short time and now is sitting on his X. It kinda ticks me off because I keep wanting to sign on with this horse, especially going long and he has been working so good I still might take a shot. Kid Cruz? I drank the cool aid for the preakness, think I will wait until this one drops down a bit. Medal Count, those on the board are having me take a closer look at this horse. I was luke warm on him for the derby, that big jump up made me a little skeptical. Think he is interesting. Commanding the Curve, I liked this horse in the Derby, like his patten here and think he is a player if CC starts to wobble in the final 1/16. Not thrilled at the price I am likely to get now that the cat is out of the bag to the general public. Tonalist, not really sure about this horse, was waiting until the TG sheets come out to take a look. ROC, not convinced he can take out CC. Think he had his chance in the preakness and ran his eyeballs out only to fall short. Not sure about the others yet. I would love to hear all of your final thoughts on this group. This figures to be a tremendous race and I am really looking forward to taking one last shot at beating CC. But I will punch a $2 win ticket and buy the program to frame it in the event I strike out. Good Luck

Appreciate the feedback. I just watched Smarty\'s Belmont race. He ran his eyeballs out and still lost. How easy it is to forget. His running style is similar to CC and there does seem to be a solid field signed on for the race (thanks miff). You have to figure at least one of these will be fully cranked and there is at least reason to believe CC\'s legs will wobble the final furlong. I actually love the fact that SI is signed on to wear down CC. That makes this race very playable for me.

Let me first say that I respect this forum and truly value the great information that I get here. I am a small time player from saratoga, I enjoy betting the triple crown races, breeders cup, and the toga meet. I am not a horseman, just a casual player who loves the game. I trust the sheets and could never bet a race confidently without them. I played Danza and thought he was second best. It looked like he got a good trip (recovered nice from the hard bump before the first turn) and started closing the ground on the front runners before they hit the turn for home. It looked like bravo tried to follow Chrome\'s path appox 1-2 lengths behind him. When they straightened out for home I thought he had horse but samraat drifted in and chitu started backing up. It looked like bravo wanted to split them initially but the horse would not. In a desperate attempt to get him daylight (because I believe he had horse but no where to go) he wheeled him 2 paths out (which stopped him as much as it did anybody else). I know that curve ran a better number (I had him on my ticket as well and really loved his chances) but it appeared to me Danza lost his chance when the speed backed up in the stretch and he was getting boxed in. Then again, I may be partial because I played the horse. I don\'t object regarding the DQ, just my thoughts on the horse.