1
Ask the Experts / Re: Alan Benewitz
« on: September 18, 2024, 01:55:03 PM »
So sorry to hear of his passing.
Show Posts
This section allows you to view all posts made by this member. Note that you can only see posts made in areas you currently have access to.
Pages: [1] 2
3
Ask the Experts / Re: All sorts of nuggets in this indictment
« on: March 10, 2020, 03:53:02 PM »
Expecting (hoping?) the fed are a different story when it comes to penalties. TGJB comment of \"They have not been taking serious steps to catch people\" is exactly spot on regarding most tracks, racing commissions. Similar to many on this board, more than once I have (either through letters or face to face) tried to address issues (once to track management, three times to the racing commission) in three of four cases, not only were my concerns not addressed, I was told we have the \"best people\" overseeing racing....and that I should not have any concerns.
As a last resort, I convinced a prominent owner to ask some questions about a barn that was having unbelievable success pointing out to this owner how many times his horses lost to this trainer with significantly improved performances-- at least I knew the racing commission had to reply to this owner and he did get a response -- the response was \"we are looking into that barn\" -- of course nothing happened. I was told months later the trainer was warned, which was probably the only thing they wanted or could do....
As a last resort, I convinced a prominent owner to ask some questions about a barn that was having unbelievable success pointing out to this owner how many times his horses lost to this trainer with significantly improved performances-- at least I knew the racing commission had to reply to this owner and he did get a response -- the response was \"we are looking into that barn\" -- of course nothing happened. I was told months later the trainer was warned, which was probably the only thing they wanted or could do....
5
Ask the Experts / Re: Beyer adjusting Turf numbers
« on: November 12, 2015, 11:13:59 PM »
Yeah -- confusing, but this part is clear -- \"With previously unavailable data now at our disposal, we have revised the formula to make adjustments that were demonstrably more accurate. A horse beaten by 10 lengths in a route race will earn a figure approximately three points higher than in the past. The new formula also will be applied to dirt races.\"
This could easily be solved with a final time for each horse taken and published, which should have been available decades ago.....
This could easily be solved with a final time for each horse taken and published, which should have been available decades ago.....
6
Ask the Experts / Re: Does anyone really beat this game?
« on: April 08, 2015, 08:54:19 PM »
As far as I know, rebates themselves are not taxable and no 1099\'s are issued, but of course any winnings (including rebates) above your bet totals are taxable.
7
Ask the Experts / Re: Does anyone really beat this game?
« on: April 08, 2015, 01:04:09 AM »
Despite thirty plus years at the track, I have never met someone who bets on races for their main income -- the ones I\'ve met who I am confident won money over a long period of time have always had some other source of income (either in the horse racing industry or have another career)...and I am talking a very few number of people. Anyway, here are my returns over the last five years taken from my account (bet, return, net, percent, rebate, percent, total return, percent):
2014/5: 108,391.40 109,048.55 657.15 0.61% rebate 6,701.58 6.18% 7,358.73 6.79%
2013/4: 68,391.55 71,776.21 3,384.66 4.95% rebate 3,164.71 4.63% 6,549.37 9.58%
2012/3: 52,076.10 51,498.48 (577.62)-1.11% rebate 3,829.20 7.35 3,251.58 6.24%
2011/2: 87,957.00 98,620.08 10,663.08 12.12% rebate 6,242.55 7.10% 16,905.63 19.22%
2010/11: 73,711.80 78,426.37 4,714.57 6.40% rebate 6,340.59 8.60% 11,055.16 15.00%
totals: $390,527.85 bet, $409,369.69 won before rebate, +$18,841.84, +4.82%
Rebates: $26,278.63 (6.73%)
Totals -- bet, $390,527.85, rebates and won, $435,648.32, +11.55%
2014/5: 108,391.40 109,048.55 657.15 0.61% rebate 6,701.58 6.18% 7,358.73 6.79%
2013/4: 68,391.55 71,776.21 3,384.66 4.95% rebate 3,164.71 4.63% 6,549.37 9.58%
2012/3: 52,076.10 51,498.48 (577.62)-1.11% rebate 3,829.20 7.35 3,251.58 6.24%
2011/2: 87,957.00 98,620.08 10,663.08 12.12% rebate 6,242.55 7.10% 16,905.63 19.22%
2010/11: 73,711.80 78,426.37 4,714.57 6.40% rebate 6,340.59 8.60% 11,055.16 15.00%
totals: $390,527.85 bet, $409,369.69 won before rebate, +$18,841.84, +4.82%
Rebates: $26,278.63 (6.73%)
Totals -- bet, $390,527.85, rebates and won, $435,648.32, +11.55%
8
Ask the Experts / Re: Quiet Time on the Board, Some Light Reading
« on: June 30, 2014, 04:59:11 PM »
I really doubt horses are eleven feet long -- more like eight
9
Ask the Experts / Re: The right general approach
« on: May 12, 2014, 03:53:01 PM »
Andy was on a local radio show this weekend in the Seattle area -- the reasons he changed the figure were as follows, first he said the 91 looked ridiculously low, then suggested the wind affected the final time adversely and even though it was an arbitrary change it was warranted and represents what the race was, it was a weak race.
He claimed the surfacing changing speed between the last dirt race and the derby was bogus.. he said the surface for the race before the derby and the two races after all the derby was exactly the same in terms of the inherent speed of the surface.
http://www.sportsradiokjr.com/media/podcast-win-place-show-ondemand-win_place_show/the-win-place-show-511-24752216/
He claimed the surfacing changing speed between the last dirt race and the derby was bogus.. he said the surface for the race before the derby and the two races after all the derby was exactly the same in terms of the inherent speed of the surface.
http://www.sportsradiokjr.com/media/podcast-win-place-show-ondemand-win_place_show/the-win-place-show-511-24752216/
11
Ask the Experts / Re: And Jimbo...
« on: May 03, 2013, 03:46:21 PM »
While I hope for the best for Krigger, he has ridden for me....didn\'t listen to instructions more than once...tends to be very aggressive and sends everything when he rode at Emerald three years ago.
12
Ask the Experts / Re: 2012 Remsen = 2005 Louisiana Derby ??
« on: March 19, 2013, 02:21:48 PM »
A long time ago one of the newspaper handicappers at Longacres had enough of some people constantly saying they could do better (his betting column lost money every year). I knew him personally and he was smart and was one of the better public handicappers. He offered to go head to head with five people (drawn from whoever wanted to enter) over two days, one horse, every race...it wasn\'t even close, the five challengers were terrible when it came down to making picks 36 hours in advance. About ten years later, when the Internet was in it\'s infancy, three posters on a local horse racing site challenged me (I publish a tip sheet and do TV as an analyst for Emerald Downs)....this time top picks for every race over the five day race week. Two of them dropped out after the second day, the third did the whole week and ended up with 7 winners out of the 45 races (compared to my 18). As mentioned, it is much, much harder to do when you have time constraints and are forced to pick every race, than when you are sitting at home, watching the races on TV and making a decision minutes before the start of the race.
I like listening to Andy -- while he can be very, very wrong about some races, overall his observations add value and are a benefit to novices and sometimes even seasoned handicappers. Obviously, many of the TV hosts don\'t add any value whatsoever, but that may be a function of the target market they are appealing to and other reasons.
I like listening to Andy -- while he can be very, very wrong about some races, overall his observations add value and are a benefit to novices and sometimes even seasoned handicappers. Obviously, many of the TV hosts don\'t add any value whatsoever, but that may be a function of the target market they are appealing to and other reasons.
13
Ask the Experts / Re: SA 9th
« on: January 28, 2013, 03:56:13 PM »
Again, very weak call -- if you have a chance, watch the head-on of the stretch drive on Jan 17th, race 3 -- a race the same stewards ruled no change warranted and then the head on of the race yesterday -- I don\'t get it.......
14
Ask the Experts / Re: SA 9th
« on: January 27, 2013, 10:50:33 PM »
Seemed pretty minor bump -- especially when running on a wet/slick surface...
15
Ask the Experts / Baffert Heart attack
« on: March 26, 2012, 07:47:13 PM »
As reported by the bloodhorse:
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/68392/trainer-baffert-suffers-heart-attack
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/68392/trainer-baffert-suffers-heart-attack
Pages: [1] 2