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« on: December 20, 2011, 02:08:29 AM »
JB -
thanks for the data. I think it is great and keeps getting better.
A question for you if you don\'t mind:
you mention hitting the pick 6 at hollywood yesterday. Congratulations.
I think this was very hittable, but I whiffed, missing the 2 yo\'s in the 10th.
After missing the last race (singling the favorite), I looked at the sheets and the winner made sense, as it had (in my mind) the best sire, trainer stats, jockey combo, etc. I was kicking myself for not spending the extra measly 10 bucks, as the analysis surely would\'ve had the winner. In redboarding today, I\'m surprised it didn\'t, and in fact mentioned another horse as having the best sire, trainer stats. What did I miss? Am I reading the data incorrectly (i hope not as I\'ve been using sheets for 20+ years).
Anyway, this is not a criticism, just wonder how you forge your view these first timers outside of works (Harrington) and some other nuggets (i.e. dam) that you\'ve graciously shared over the years. I weigh yearling costs, prep, numbers 1st out and 2 yo for sire/dam, trainer stats, surface, thoughts on well meant, etc. and combine for overall view, without a strong weight or bias towards anything (probably most towards parents #\'s). But I typically struggle with the firsters especially when other indicators like the betting is a few legs in.
I presume that in a horizontal structure where you like the other legs, the 2 yo unraced legs just require a spread unless a few are likely. Is this how you approach it and what you did yesterday in the last ?
For second timers, I have given far more weight to the trainers TG #\'s from start 1 to start 2 than their percentages, ROI, and it seems like a a good predictor, but for first timers, I struggle. Any insight into what you weigh heavily on the 2 y.o.\'s and how you structure horizontal bets with many unraced and unknowns in the legs would be greatly appreciated.
Thanks.
p.s. I\'ve been trying to sign in with the account I\'ve had forever, but it didn\'t work so had to create new id fwiw.