Ask The Experts

I understand that.  But what about my negligence claim?  Why is that one a fail for you, if it is?

Sports betting goes live Dec 1st in Missouri.

It has been beyond murky if ADW\'s for horse racing would be included.  It has been reported to me by our good friend at NYRA, that Yes, Indeed, NYRA Bets will be working towards being available in Missouri.  He did caution that NJ has taught them he can\'t say how soon is relatively soon.  

That said, one would presume that FanDuel, TwinSpires, Xpressbet will all be setting up shop in Missouri also.

So, our good pal [Fairmount GM], who just LOVESSSS the CAW\'s and has openly said so will have to do some magic to get the St. Louis folks to cross the river once someone goes live in Missouri.  Fairmount has basically IGNORED and shown Disdain towards the folks putting the most valuable dollars into the pools at the track.  Your Move [FP GM]!  What you gonna do to earn our business now?  My honest guess is Nothing.

NOTE:  [FP GM] is a Kentucky guy who worked at Keeneland presumably alongside the Wagering Development Officer or whatever JG\'s title is these days.  Just keep kissing up to the CAW\'s?  Or going to try to earn live customer business?  Which will it be?  My bet is on CAW\'s based on the first season of business.

Jerry,

Massive is the word.  what % of the pools are they these days?  At Fairmount, they were over 60% on certain races and other races did not even get involved.  Of course, you don\'t know that until after the bell and the final cycle gets calculated.  

Folks like to say they are 30 to 40%.  I think it is more than that.  If that number is accurate, that is only b/c they don\'t play every race.  It seems a beyond safe secret.

Silver made mention of the Sport of Clowns!  As evidence of his joke/serious statement, the people who \"cover\" or \"provide analysis\" of this \"entertainment business\" (See Mike Joyce on this particular one) all but REFUSE to address the CAW\'s in their video/audio/adw appearances.  In fact, there is one CLOWN in the horse racing media/analyst/announcer/whatever roles that seems to support them beyond belief.  I\'m convinced he is on Dr. Nick\'s payroll.  He\'s a Fat Cat let\'s call him.  He never, ever will say that anything is but on the up and up about the CAW\'s.  I don\'t believe there is one massive conspiracy to cover up for the CAW\'s.  But I do think all of the employers of these CLOWNS have instructed them to zip it re: CAW\'s.  

These are the folks employed to assist the bettors.  They are not assisting the CAW\'s.  If your job (or your employee/CLOWN\'s job) was to assist the Retail bettors in every way possible, wouldn\'t you have them Beating the Drum that we need to LIMIT and BAN The Caw\'s?  Wouldn\'t you encourage folks to sign up at the class action lawsuit website?  These CAW\'s are costing your audience significant dollars and the CLOWNS won\'t say outloud \"\"We Need Major Change.\"  Is it b/c their employers know the MASSIVE amounts CAW\'s are wagering are far more than has ever been reported?  IDK.  Ultimately, all I\'m saying, is that it is beyond telling that NO ONE from the CLOWN Car is willing to call this issue out publicly.  

Now, Portnoy has done it.  Repole to a degree has done it (his pal Pat isn\'t as damning towards them).  Gramm refuses to take the strong stance.  Kudos to Andy Asaro who has been a strong advocate against CAW\'s and of the lawsuit.  But these guys aren\'t part of the CLOWN car that provides assistance to Retail Gamblers.  

One friend surmises they are all fearful of their jobs b/c they are just employed to talk about animals running in a circle and they don\'t want to jeopardize that easy living with their RED Nose on their face. I am not sure but find me a knowledgeable person about the gambling game who will tell you that the CAW\'s are a positive in any way for the long term health of the game or a positive for Retail Bettors.  Quotes from the corporate Stronach Group don\'t count.

#8 was 5.6-1 late in the wagering.  The imputed Double odds were 5.2-1.  The off odds were 8.1-1.  These are per Ed DeRosa\'s post on X.

Further in the string, it is reported that $3,506 was bet in the final flash in the show pool yet only 58 dollars was bet to SHOW on the 8 in that final cycle.

And it is also noted nearly every exotic involving the 8 horse Doubled in that last cycle.  

The CAW\'s just pounded that favorite is all that happened.  It is just a coincidence the jockey fell off in a few strides and the win, exotic, and show pools all reflected a far less chance for the 8 to be a part of the payoffs.

Elite 2 is likely The Joker.

Elite 17 is likely Dr. Nick. (reportedly bet $650 million on US racing in 2023 through Elite Turf Club and reportedly bet $60 million on Del mar in 2021).  Who knows if he has an account through Velocity with Churchill controlled signals?

They are both from Australia.  These two are the largest CAW players or at least at last check of information available.  As I understand it, Dr. Nick stole an idea from a large player where he makes up front payments to a track prior to the meet starting.  Fairmount Park\'s handle increased by 8.7 million under new ownership this year.  Trust me when I saw it ain\'t the retail bettors pumping in an extra 8 million.  A very intelligent person in the professional gambling world theorized strongly that Dr. Nick made his up front payment to the track.  This results in what some call a \"Reverse Rebate.\"  The tracks, like Del Mar, need the money up front to operate.  From there, I\'m not sure of the exact agreements, and so-called special deals. TDN once stated that such deals result in a \"noticeably more favorable rate of play\" without going into specifics.  For Del Mar, such an arrangement involved a 7-figure up-front payment.

It is worth noting The Joker\'s involvement in the Texas Lottery and how they spent 70 million to take a lottery pool covering nearly every combo if I recall correctly.  You can Google about that I\'m sure.

Jerry is correct with how they play the game in many instances.  It has been noted they do not play a part wheel ticket for instance.  They will play a combo of fav/fav/fav/fav/fav for XX amount. Then fav/2nd/fav/fav/fav for XX-y.  The amounts they play for each combo are in exact relation to their probability models.  This is all good and wonderful they play outlandish and bizzaare combos down to the 50 cent incremement at times to scoop a pool.  Where things get confusing . . . is when the vertical plays do not match up with the horizontal information ESPECIALLY AS I\'VE NOTED WHEN THE HEAVY FAVORITES OFTEN NEED THE LEAD TYPES BREAK POOR OR LOSE ALL CHANCE BY DROPPING A JOCKEY.  But note, there are multiple CAW teams besides even the two often cited.  Some folks like to generalize and theorize, they (CAWs) don\'t show their hand in the double but in the p3 and they hit the exactas the hardest.  I don\'t know with several CAW teams and playing in different amounts relative to each other, how they collide with each other sometimes affects the pools.  Something tells me that one player has even better perks than other CAW teams up until the very, very, very last moments a wager can be made but that\'s just my opinion.  

As for competing against them, I have spent the past year in the hours I\'m not working sharpening my handicapping knives.  Regular readers can probably tell that from my posts the last few months.  I have stated and Boscar didn\'t disagree that the game can still be profitable for a sharp, disciplined player.  But as a wise businessman told me about a job once that he didn\'t really want, there isn\'t much meat on the bone in today\'s game.  They are playing even longshot chances correctly and at times, beyond correctly.  

Is it worth playing still?  That\'s each person\'s individual decision.  But you have to know what you are getting involved in when your money goes in the pools.  I can beat these guys straight up on the races I pick to play.  I can\'t beat them playing every race.  They are playing a completely different game.  I don\'t think Only breaking even is ever their goal, but if they do, they still win.  For the retail player, that is not true likely.  And as one player noted to me and I\'ve discussed with close friends since, you can\'t even think of getting in a rhythm of popping several races in a row b/c there isn\'t value in race after race as there used to be 20 years ago or so.

The CAW lawsuit needs to make it to discovery and then things will change.  I guarantee there are many things the tracks don\'t want you to know.  Consider why these CAW teams do not want to bet at 2 minutes to post in the win pool. While pondering that, I\'m going to steal this thought from a Paulick Report to end this post.  \"The Stronach Group\'s spokespeople warn, \'this lawsuit is an attack on the entire industry and puts at risk the tens of thousands of working families and the communities that rely on it.   This baseless lawsuit has the potential to devastate an entire industry.\'\"  

The same folks who are wanting to decouple, have closed Golden Gate, have essentially closed Laurel and put Maryland in peril, and are doing all they can legislatively and via lawsuit claiming Equal Protection issues (which is laughable) to de-couple Gulfstream.  They are the same folks taking shots at a retail gambler from Colorado taking on the CAW\'s.  Now ponder why 1/st/Stronach/Belinda are so interested in calling the lawsuit baseless.  If the tracks thought all of their CAW dealings were on the up-and-up, why wouldn\'t they in coordination with the CAW principals provide more transparency about everything involved unless. . . there are things they absolutely do NOT want you to know.  That doesn\'t sound like \"Parimutuel\" to me (\"Betting among ourselves\").

The solution is to ban them legislatively.  If Kentucky or NY would take this step, their total handle short term would suffer.  But they can both weather the storm, and long term (and it wouldn\'t take very long) the retail money would POUR into their pools.  The first state to do this will be a big winner long term is my position.

Silver,

Hate to quibble but just to clarify that stat is when the 13 or the 14 is the OUTSIDE Post of the race.  Not sure if the 13 has ever won in 14 horse field but if a scratch or two happens on Friday in either race, Post 12 in 12 horse fields is 114-10-6-7 with Henri Matties winning last year from the outside post 12 (number 13 in wagering) at 7-2.  Mattiese was 2FT about 8L behind through FT; 3BS; mET; 4mT; 5EStr; 6Str and best to win.  I am not certain if he was post \"13\" in that the 1 was left empty??  But others can confirm that from the replay.  Regardless, I don\'t believe 13 and 14 are a death sentence for these two.    

I\'m not saying Precise and Gstaad win but I don\'t see it as awful as others.  

I like Balantina quite a bit in the Juvy Fillies Turf besides Precise.  Precise with a decent trip can blow their doors off in the Stretch if she can save just a bit of ground in FT.  I\'ll have an ex box and a tri with those 2 in it.

I\'m against Gstaad as a grinder type, big colt.  He can win but I don\'t believe he towers over the field like others.  I\'ll be playing Street Beast and Gordon Pass to get the job done.  Street Beast would end that Ky Downs drought if he were to win.  I can\'t guarantee a Ky Downs horse wins but the competition there is so good now that I\'ll be shocked if they don\'t have a solid impact in at least place/show spots this year and maybe a few wins also.  
_______________

I did some Touch of Destiny studying for those interested.  All of his replays are available on TwinSpires at least; his works are out there on 1st Racing.  Two of his works were with Journalism but don\'t think he was cranked in those.  I think he is up against it in the win spot is long story short as an AUGUST 3yo from URU but I would recommend looking at his replays and works yourselves to make your own decision.

Likely my last post until after BC to the relief of some in these parts likely haha.  Good Luck to all.  I want to hear about some big winners on the weekend.

Speaking of Baffert, his Saturday horses in the BC Races:

Splendora:  Last raced Sept. 1
Hope Road:  Last raced Aug. 23.  2nd race off a layoff since May, 2025.
Richi:  Last raced Sept. 28.  3RD OFF A LAYOFF.  
Imagination:  Last raced Sept. 28.  2nd off a layoff since Jan, 2025.
Seismic Beauty:  Last raced Aug. 2.  That was her first race since May, 2025.  Near 90 days since her last.  
Nevada Beach:  Last raced Sept. 27.  2nd off a layoff since June, 2025.  5th career start facing older as the \"Other, Other, Other 3yo\" of the Classic group.
Goal Oriented:  Last Raced Sept. 20.  2nd off a layoff since July, 2025.
Nysos:  Last raced July 26.
Citizen Bull:  Last raced Aug.31.  Prior race was June 7th.

Mandella:

Tamara:  Last raced Oct.4, 2nd off layoff since Nov, 2024
Kopion:  Last raced Aug. 2nd
Big City Lights:  Last raced Jan 18.  Has only lost to 4 horses in his career.  The Chosen Vron, Raging Torrent, Happy Jack and Dr. Venkman who is in the race.  Not a bad list for a Cal bred.

Blacker:

Straight No Chaser:  Last raced Sept. 28, 2nd off a layoff since April, 2025 (lame in front leg after that April race)

______________

California trainers bringing in their Dirt horses FRESH except for Richi.  I am making the assumption this is by design and that these horses are fit, ready, and dangerous b/c of whatever the current rules of the game are these days.  I am not allowing the layoffs to influence my decisions.