1
Ask the Experts / Re: ROTW?
« on: September 14, 2007, 04:13:26 PM »
Where can you bet this race if you are in NY?
NYC OTB is not taking it.
NYC OTB is not taking it.
Show Posts
This section allows you to view all posts made by this member. Note that you can only see posts made in areas you currently have access to.
2
Ask the Experts / Ragozin Belmont Stakes Numbers
« on: June 18, 2007, 01:48:13 PM »
FYI
Len posted the Final figures today.
RAGS TO RICHES 3
CURLIN 4
TIAGO 7
HARD SPUN 7
C P WEST 11
IMAWILDANDCRAZYGUY 12\"
SLEW\'S TIZZY ~ 14\"
Len posted the Final figures today.
RAGS TO RICHES 3
CURLIN 4
TIAGO 7
HARD SPUN 7
C P WEST 11
IMAWILDANDCRAZYGUY 12\"
SLEW\'S TIZZY ~ 14\"
3
Ask the Experts / Re: Rags to Rags
« on: June 15, 2007, 08:56:36 AM »
Though Len hasn\'t posted the Ragozin numbers, I believe that Rags received a
4 3/4 and Curlin a 5 3/4.
4 3/4 and Curlin a 5 3/4.
4
Ask the Experts / Re: 0 for 39 and still trying
« on: June 05, 2007, 09:14:53 AM »
How does her pattern look on Thoro?
She is prime for a forward move based on Rags.
She is prime for a forward move based on Rags.
5
Ask the Experts / Re: 0 for 39 and still trying
« on: June 05, 2007, 08:19:04 AM »
Not desperate in my opinion.
Curlin and Hard Spun are running in their third race in 5 weeks.
Rags To Riches has 5 weeks rest. The Belmont is worth $1 million. She hasn\'t run as fast as those two yet, but she is improving. There is a good chance that the top two will regress on Saturday. If so, she has a good shot.
The distance should be no problem for her either.
The Triple Tiara (all 3 races are worth $800k) and all 3 races are three weeks apart. I think it makes sense to take the shot.
Curlin and Hard Spun are running in their third race in 5 weeks.
Rags To Riches has 5 weeks rest. The Belmont is worth $1 million. She hasn\'t run as fast as those two yet, but she is improving. There is a good chance that the top two will regress on Saturday. If so, she has a good shot.
The distance should be no problem for her either.
The Triple Tiara (all 3 races are worth $800k) and all 3 races are three weeks apart. I think it makes sense to take the shot.
6
Ask the Experts / Re: Derby
« on: April 04, 2007, 03:46:50 PM »
AGS is running in the Wood.
1 Nobiz Like Shobiz Cornelio H. Velasquez
2 Sightseeing Javier Castellano
3 Flashstorm John Jacinto
4 Cowtown Cat Fernando Jara
5 Summer Doldrums Michael J. Luzzi
6 Any Given Saturday John R. Velazquez
7 Reptilian Smarts David Romero Flores
1 Nobiz Like Shobiz Cornelio H. Velasquez
2 Sightseeing Javier Castellano
3 Flashstorm John Jacinto
4 Cowtown Cat Fernando Jara
5 Summer Doldrums Michael J. Luzzi
6 Any Given Saturday John R. Velazquez
7 Reptilian Smarts David Romero Flores
7
Ask the Experts / Re: Just A Reminder
« on: May 18, 2006, 07:11:11 PM »
I saw that post on the Ragozin BB.
They not only took it down, but banned the user\'s password (a friend of mine) from posting again.
Go Figure.
They not only took it down, but banned the user\'s password (a friend of mine) from posting again.
Go Figure.
9
Ask the Experts / Re: Probability
« on: November 09, 2005, 11:43:19 PM »
I do believe that the BC Classic was a much faster race than the JCGC.
How Thoro has Borrego reacting from the JCGC to the BC is a # that I disagree with.
How Thoro has Perfect Drift\'s race prior to the BC as a 0 on an off track is another # that I disagree with. Was that effort as good as his Pacific classic race? No.
The 0+ of Silver train was being compared to the 5\" of Borrego (Rag #) not the
-3 of Thoro.
Did Imperialism only bounce 1 point (from a 1 to a 2) from his 7 furlong sprint win off the layoff to his JCGC race? No.
I could go on....
I\'m not saying Rags is 100% correct, but neither is Thoro.
How Thoro has Borrego reacting from the JCGC to the BC is a # that I disagree with.
How Thoro has Perfect Drift\'s race prior to the BC as a 0 on an off track is another # that I disagree with. Was that effort as good as his Pacific classic race? No.
The 0+ of Silver train was being compared to the 5\" of Borrego (Rag #) not the
-3 of Thoro.
Did Imperialism only bounce 1 point (from a 1 to a 2) from his 7 furlong sprint win off the layoff to his JCGC race? No.
I could go on....
I\'m not saying Rags is 100% correct, but neither is Thoro.
10
Ask the Experts / Re: Probability
« on: November 09, 2005, 08:54:56 PM »
I added a few numbers
Rags ....................................... Thoro
Imperialism 3-8-1-13-4 ............. 1, 2, 1, 2, 1
Flower Alley 3-0-0-15-0 ........ . -1, -2, -2, 5, -2
Suave 5-6-3- 9-1 ................ 1, 2, 0, 0, -1
Sun King 5-5-2-11-6 .............. 0, 0, -1, 2, 2
Borrego 8-5-2- 5-4 ............... 2, 0, 0, -3, 0
Perfect Drift 4-6-1-6-2 .......... 0, 0, 0, 0, -2
Sir Shackleton 9-7-5-3-5 .......... 2, 0, 0, 0, 0
My question is \"What is the probability that these horses not bounce?\"
According to your numbers, they don\'t bounce (hardly ever) which is not believable. Horses are not machines. They are athletes that have ups and downs as any athlete does.
The point of \"if Imperialism ran the 4 in the Gold Cup he would have won\" is nonsense. I guess you would also say if Silver Train ran his 0+ Sheet # for his win the the BC Sprint in the JCGC, he would have won by a mile. Those comparisons can\'t be made. It just doesn\'t make sense.
Rags ....................................... Thoro
Imperialism 3-8-1-13-4 ............. 1, 2, 1, 2, 1
Flower Alley 3-0-0-15-0 ........ . -1, -2, -2, 5, -2
Suave 5-6-3- 9-1 ................ 1, 2, 0, 0, -1
Sun King 5-5-2-11-6 .............. 0, 0, -1, 2, 2
Borrego 8-5-2- 5-4 ............... 2, 0, 0, -3, 0
Perfect Drift 4-6-1-6-2 .......... 0, 0, 0, 0, -2
Sir Shackleton 9-7-5-3-5 .......... 2, 0, 0, 0, 0
My question is \"What is the probability that these horses not bounce?\"
According to your numbers, they don\'t bounce (hardly ever) which is not believable. Horses are not machines. They are athletes that have ups and downs as any athlete does.
The point of \"if Imperialism ran the 4 in the Gold Cup he would have won\" is nonsense. I guess you would also say if Silver Train ran his 0+ Sheet # for his win the the BC Sprint in the JCGC, he would have won by a mile. Those comparisons can\'t be made. It just doesn\'t make sense.
11
Ask the Experts / Ragozin BC Numbers
« on: November 08, 2005, 01:03:50 PM »
From the SHEETS website:
R3: 1 1/16 Dirt - F2YO
FOLKLORE
9
WILD FIT
9+
ORIGINAL SPIN
F~11
EX CAELIS
~11+
SENSATION
~13”
KNIGHTS TEMPLAR
~13+
ADIEU
~16-
ALONG THE SEA
~16
SHE SAYS IT BEST
~15
DIAMOND OMI
~18-
R4: 1 1/16 Dirt - 2YO
STEVIE WONDERBOY
0
HENNY HUGHES
F2”
FIRST SAMURAI
F2”
BROTHER DEREK
6”
SUPERFLY
6
SORCERER;S STONE
9
DR.PLEASURE
9-
STREAM CAT
11-
LEO-GR
12
JEALOUS PROFIT
13”
DAWN OF WAR
~15
IVAN DENISOVICH-IR
F17”
SET ALIGHT
20”
PRIVATE VOW
~16” rein broke
R5: 1 1/4 Mile, inner Turf- F3U
INTERCONTINENTAL-GB
^=2+
OUIJA BOARD-GB
^=2
FILM MAKER
^=2+
WONDER AGAIN
^=4+
FAVOURABLE TERMS-GB
^=5”
WEND
^=8-
ANGARA-GB
^=7”
MEGAHERTZ-GB
^=10+
KAREN’S CAPER
^=9”
MONA LISA-GB
^=12+
LUAS LINE-IR
^=13+
FLIP FLOP-FR
^=15”
RISKAVERSE
~^=17”
SUNDROP-JP
~^=15”
R6: BREEDERS CUP SPRINT - 6 Fur, Dirt - 3U
SILVER TRAIN
0+
TASTE OF PARADISE
1
LION TAMER
3+
ATTILA’S STORM
4+
ELUSIVE JAZZ
3”
LIFESTYLE
4
LOST IN THE FOG
4
IMPERIALISM
4
GYGISTAR
7-
WILDCAT HEIR
~12
BATTLE WON
~15-
R7: BREEDERS CUP MILE TURF - 3U
ARTIE SCHILLER
^=3
LEROIDESANIMAUX-BR
^=2
GORELLA-FR
^=4+
WHIPPER
^=3+
MAJORS CAST-IR
F^=3
LIMEHOUSE
^=3-
HOST-CH
^=5+
SINGLETARY
^=5
AD VALOREM
^=7+
VALIXIR-IR
^=11+
SAND SPRINGS
^=15
FUNFAIR
^=XX
R8: BREEDERS CUP DISTAFF 1 1/8 Dirt - F3U
PLEASANT HOME
1”
SOCIETY SELECTION
7”
ASHADO
7-
STELLAR JAYNE
9-
IN THE GOLD
9”
CAPESIDE LADY
11
NOTHING BUT FUN
10+
HOLLYWOOD STORY
13+
SWEET SYMPHONY
~16-
ISLAND FASHION
~16”
HAPPY TICKET
~13
YOLANDA B.TOO
~16-
HEALTHY ADDICTION
~19+
R9: JOHN DEERE BREEDERS CUP TURF - 1 1/2 miles - 3U
SHIROCCO-GE
P~^=1”
ACE-IR
P~^=2”
AZAMOUR-IR
FP~^=2
BAGO-FR
P~^=3
ENGLISH CHANNEL
P~^=5
SILVERFOOT
P~^=5
BETTER TALK NOW
P~^=5+
GUN SALUTE
P~^=7+
FOURTY NINERS SON
P~^=11
LEPRECHAUN KID
P~^=15+
LAURA’S LUCKY BOY
P~^=16
SHAKESPEARE
~^=18
SHAKE THE BANK
~^=21
R10: BREEDERS CUP CLASSIC 1 1/4 Miles Dirt - 3U
SAINT LIAM
-1”
FLOWER ALLEY
0”
PERFECT DRIFT
2-
SUPER FROLIC
2+
SUAVE
2-
CHOCTAW NATION
3-
STARCRAFT-NZ
F3
SIR SHACKLETON
5-
SUN KING
7-
BORREGO
4”
ORATORIO-IR
F8
JACK SULLIVAN
F7”
A BIT O’GOLD
9+
R3: 1 1/16 Dirt - F2YO
FOLKLORE
9
WILD FIT
9+
ORIGINAL SPIN
F~11
EX CAELIS
~11+
SENSATION
~13”
KNIGHTS TEMPLAR
~13+
ADIEU
~16-
ALONG THE SEA
~16
SHE SAYS IT BEST
~15
DIAMOND OMI
~18-
R4: 1 1/16 Dirt - 2YO
STEVIE WONDERBOY
0
HENNY HUGHES
F2”
FIRST SAMURAI
F2”
BROTHER DEREK
6”
SUPERFLY
6
SORCERER;S STONE
9
DR.PLEASURE
9-
STREAM CAT
11-
LEO-GR
12
JEALOUS PROFIT
13”
DAWN OF WAR
~15
IVAN DENISOVICH-IR
F17”
SET ALIGHT
20”
PRIVATE VOW
~16” rein broke
R5: 1 1/4 Mile, inner Turf- F3U
INTERCONTINENTAL-GB
^=2+
OUIJA BOARD-GB
^=2
FILM MAKER
^=2+
WONDER AGAIN
^=4+
FAVOURABLE TERMS-GB
^=5”
WEND
^=8-
ANGARA-GB
^=7”
MEGAHERTZ-GB
^=10+
KAREN’S CAPER
^=9”
MONA LISA-GB
^=12+
LUAS LINE-IR
^=13+
FLIP FLOP-FR
^=15”
RISKAVERSE
~^=17”
SUNDROP-JP
~^=15”
R6: BREEDERS CUP SPRINT - 6 Fur, Dirt - 3U
SILVER TRAIN
0+
TASTE OF PARADISE
1
LION TAMER
3+
ATTILA’S STORM
4+
ELUSIVE JAZZ
3”
LIFESTYLE
4
LOST IN THE FOG
4
IMPERIALISM
4
GYGISTAR
7-
WILDCAT HEIR
~12
BATTLE WON
~15-
R7: BREEDERS CUP MILE TURF - 3U
ARTIE SCHILLER
^=3
LEROIDESANIMAUX-BR
^=2
GORELLA-FR
^=4+
WHIPPER
^=3+
MAJORS CAST-IR
F^=3
LIMEHOUSE
^=3-
HOST-CH
^=5+
SINGLETARY
^=5
AD VALOREM
^=7+
VALIXIR-IR
^=11+
SAND SPRINGS
^=15
FUNFAIR
^=XX
R8: BREEDERS CUP DISTAFF 1 1/8 Dirt - F3U
PLEASANT HOME
1”
SOCIETY SELECTION
7”
ASHADO
7-
STELLAR JAYNE
9-
IN THE GOLD
9”
CAPESIDE LADY
11
NOTHING BUT FUN
10+
HOLLYWOOD STORY
13+
SWEET SYMPHONY
~16-
ISLAND FASHION
~16”
HAPPY TICKET
~13
YOLANDA B.TOO
~16-
HEALTHY ADDICTION
~19+
R9: JOHN DEERE BREEDERS CUP TURF - 1 1/2 miles - 3U
SHIROCCO-GE
P~^=1”
ACE-IR
P~^=2”
AZAMOUR-IR
FP~^=2
BAGO-FR
P~^=3
ENGLISH CHANNEL
P~^=5
SILVERFOOT
P~^=5
BETTER TALK NOW
P~^=5+
GUN SALUTE
P~^=7+
FOURTY NINERS SON
P~^=11
LEPRECHAUN KID
P~^=15+
LAURA’S LUCKY BOY
P~^=16
SHAKESPEARE
~^=18
SHAKE THE BANK
~^=21
R10: BREEDERS CUP CLASSIC 1 1/4 Miles Dirt - 3U
SAINT LIAM
-1”
FLOWER ALLEY
0”
PERFECT DRIFT
2-
SUPER FROLIC
2+
SUAVE
2-
CHOCTAW NATION
3-
STARCRAFT-NZ
F3
SIR SHACKLETON
5-
SUN KING
7-
BORREGO
4”
ORATORIO-IR
F8
JACK SULLIVAN
F7”
A BIT O’GOLD
9+
12
Ask the Experts / Re: Okay, One More Pop Quiz
« on: October 27, 2005, 02:11:09 PM »
I must be dense.
The gusting wind race was the Sport Page, not the Cigar Mile. No?
Yes, a gusting wind makes a difference of a couple of points..that\'s why
Lion Tamer\'s number in the Sports Page is better than his number in the Cigar Mile.
The gusting wind race was the Sport Page, not the Cigar Mile. No?
Yes, a gusting wind makes a difference of a couple of points..that\'s why
Lion Tamer\'s number in the Sports Page is better than his number in the Cigar Mile.
13
Ask the Experts / Re: Okay, One More Pop Quiz
« on: October 27, 2005, 01:04:39 PM »
I know the gusting wind was for all horses in the Sport Page, but I was replying to your pop quiz - see quiz below:
Last year, Lion Tamer ran second by 3 lengths to Mass Media in the Sport Page. In his next start, he won the GI Cigar Mile despite racing 4 wide. On Ragozin:
a) he ran 3 points faster winning the NYRA Mile,
b) ran the same figure in both races,
c) bounced 3 points from a losing effort in the Sport Page, but won the NYRA Mile.
Hint-- it\'s C. Ragozin gave him 3 points faster losing the Sport Page than winning the NYRA Mile.
For the record, we had him going forward about a point to win the NYRA mile.
There are instances where a horse can lose a race and run a 0\" and then win one and have a worse number next out (in LT\'s instance a 3+). The wind and slow start made LT\'s Sport Page effort rate better on Rags than the NYRA mile effort.
You can\'t just think he ran faster just because he won the race.
Am I missing something??
Last year, Lion Tamer ran second by 3 lengths to Mass Media in the Sport Page. In his next start, he won the GI Cigar Mile despite racing 4 wide. On Ragozin:
a) he ran 3 points faster winning the NYRA Mile,
b) ran the same figure in both races,
c) bounced 3 points from a losing effort in the Sport Page, but won the NYRA Mile.
Hint-- it\'s C. Ragozin gave him 3 points faster losing the Sport Page than winning the NYRA Mile.
For the record, we had him going forward about a point to win the NYRA mile.
There are instances where a horse can lose a race and run a 0\" and then win one and have a worse number next out (in LT\'s instance a 3+). The wind and slow start made LT\'s Sport Page effort rate better on Rags than the NYRA mile effort.
You can\'t just think he ran faster just because he won the race.
Am I missing something??
14
Ask the Experts / Re: Okay, One More Pop Quiz
« on: October 27, 2005, 07:54:54 AM »
There is a small \"g\" next to Lion Tamer\'s 0\" Ragozin number for the Sport Page race. That denotes a heavy gusting wind. LT also had a slow start in that race as denoted by the \"s\" listed after his #. He was wide in both races so we will call that one even. He also carried three more pounds in the Sport Page which equates to a 1/2 point. With those three factors listed above, I do not have a problem with the Sport Page # being faster by 2 and 3/4 points.
15
Ask the Experts / Pomeroy Scratched
« on: October 26, 2005, 08:59:15 AM »
The Spa specialist is out of the BC Sprint.
He was scratched after he worked over the Polytrack at Turfway Park Wednesday morning. Following the work, trainer Patrick Biancone detected something not right with his left front foot.
He was scratched after he worked over the Polytrack at Turfway Park Wednesday morning. Following the work, trainer Patrick Biancone detected something not right with his left front foot.