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Ask the Experts / Re: Tomato throw...
« on: June 06, 2014, 08:13:32 PM »
Great post and agree. And what if the cotton falls out? Do I get my money back?
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Ask the Experts / Re: Nasal strip on per Alan Sherman
« on: May 20, 2014, 08:50:28 PM »
After we\'ve exhausted this topic we can talk about my zero impulse momentum putter I designed that is all the rage. I also used to work for the CIA and NSA.
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Ask the Experts / Re: Nasal strip on per Alan Sherman
« on: May 19, 2014, 05:11:02 PM »
Wow. If you can get 10-1 on Chrome on eBay tickets, sounds like you can arbitrage your bets on all horses and guarantee a profit on the Belmont. Interesting math problem but doubt it\'s true.
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Ask the Experts / Re: Nasal strip on per Alan Sherman
« on: May 19, 2014, 11:40:36 AM »
Drawing an analogy. When I bet on football games I want to know whether my RB is changing to the dark visor, what cleats my team is wearing, whether my OL are wearing those transformer knee braces or not, whether my QB is wearing a pad for his lower back, whether my WR is trying some new gloves that work well in cold weather. I\'d also like to know if they were out partying the night before, how well they slept and if they had a bowel movement or not. If yes, was it loose or firm. All relevant but I think FULL transparency may be information overload.
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Ask the Experts / Re: Nasal Strips
« on: May 19, 2014, 10:26:41 AM »
People at my work that don\'t follow horse racing but know I do have been asking about the nasal strip issue. That\'s not what we want the casual Joe to be talking about. So silly!
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Ask the Experts / Re: Pairs
« on: May 07, 2014, 07:57:16 PM »
Great story.
So you don\'t believe a computer could accurately predict the probability of a horse winning a race better than a human? There are entire industries that project results with computers for profit. My theory is a Monte Carlo simulation could yield a probability which when wagered on when a significant edge exists would yield profits in the long term. So I think we are in agreement with the long term goal via probabilities to beat the races not the race
So you don\'t believe a computer could accurately predict the probability of a horse winning a race better than a human? There are entire industries that project results with computers for profit. My theory is a Monte Carlo simulation could yield a probability which when wagered on when a significant edge exists would yield profits in the long term. So I think we are in agreement with the long term goal via probabilities to beat the races not the race
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Ask the Experts / Re: Pairs
« on: May 07, 2014, 07:19:33 PM »
I do and that\'s very useful but it is independent of the horse, trainer and time since last race. It also wouldn\'t factor in surface change, distance change, equipment change, etc. With enough time I could come up with a program to do it for me but would need data in .csv format. With a projection and a variant for each horse you can simulate the outcome on computer a million times. You can even throw in additional factors related to pace in the simulation. Seems like a powerful way to extract more value off the TG figs. Okay, I\'ll go back in my cave now.
P.S. Would you ever sell your data in .csv format?
P.S. Would you ever sell your data in .csv format?
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Ask the Experts / Re: Pairs
« on: May 07, 2014, 07:04:51 PM »
New poster here. Love this topic so had to chime in. So you calculate the relative figures of each horse based on lengths beat, ground loss and weight. Then you slide this set of figures up and down to best fit the previous figures for the horses. And this is called the projection method.
You don\'t actually project a figure for the horse before the race and use that as a reference point to create the best fit. Am I correct? If you did it would be awesome to publish that projection in the page for each horse.
It would also be cool to create a projection and a variance for each horse pre-race. That variance being a function of the horses age, rest, trainer, previous consistency, etc.
I understand you guys are the experts, not me. But with this kind of information you could start to create a line off the projections and variants. Could even be a new product you sell once you prove it\'s worth.
Thanks for your time
Jeff
You don\'t actually project a figure for the horse before the race and use that as a reference point to create the best fit. Am I correct? If you did it would be awesome to publish that projection in the page for each horse.
It would also be cool to create a projection and a variance for each horse pre-race. That variance being a function of the horses age, rest, trainer, previous consistency, etc.
I understand you guys are the experts, not me. But with this kind of information you could start to create a line off the projections and variants. Could even be a new product you sell once you prove it\'s worth.
Thanks for your time
Jeff
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